Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

There used to be an atmosphere of buying dips here, but I get the feeling it's either OT now, or just not happening, OR you're all waiting for a bigger DIP,, or the Pop is imminent? Congratulations to the HODLers, perhaps the traders are broke by now? The difference is... "I have a system."

It's also possible that there are no more couches to raid.

 

[winfield100]

It's also possible that there are no more couches to raid.

some of us have been tapped out a very long time

 

[Krugerrand]

Don't the lowest range Teslas have LFPs that never degrade and can always be charged to 100%?

ICE vehicle mileage degrades too boys and girls.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ya got me thinking - what is the acceptable equivalent BEV vs ICE?

This is such a human trait that isn’t necessarily a positive. Not everything needs to compared and require an equivalent. Sometimes, nay, a lot of times things can just be different. That’s why we have apples and oranges.

If as an example you ask; What is the ICE equivalent of instant torque in EVs?

People really need to come out of their repetitive and limiting zones now and again; stop labeling everything and everyone, and stop comparing everything and everyone. Just accept things and people can be different and that’s OK. Let all stand or fall on their own merits or lack thereof.

 

[FireMedic]

To put some numbers on this, minimum range should the greater of: 1) Three or four days of commuting (for power outage). 2) The distance (plus unforeseen allowance) between Superchargers if one location is out (on a trip you often take). So 150 miles between Superchargers (there are two of these on a trip I frequently take) means minimum of 350 miles range.

So as the charging networks expand, the minimum viable range for EVs will come down.

And if some of the super bulls are right, and gas stations start to fade into extinction soon… Their minimum viable range will increase.

 

[Skryll]

Wouldn't it be amazing if tesla launched a cybertruck configuratior that includes selecting your wrap or even uploading your own designs, then produce panels prewrapped before assembly

 

[Words of HABIT]

Wouldn't it be amazing if tesla launched a cybertruck configuratior that includes selecting your wrap or even uploading your own designs, then produce panels prewrapped before assembly

One of the main objectives of Cybertruck is to simpify with no-nonsense exterior, not complicate it. I give Tesla a greater chance of installing a fake muffler kit than provide a wrap option for Cybertruck.

 

[dhanson865]

Don't the lowest range Teslas have LFPs that never degrade and can always be charged to 100%?

There is no such thing as a battery that never degrades.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Optimus update from Tesla...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705728820693668189

 

[samn]

Optimus update from Tesla...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705728820693668189

This video really impressed me. For one thing Optimus movement is becoming really smooth, but beyond that it's just amazing to be able to watch the ai engine and training process being built in the early stages.

A more traditional company like Apple for instance likely wouldn't even show a product like this at all until it was ready for the market, but Tesla takes the opposite approach. In order to build their real world ai engines they need to have the robots operating in the real world as early and as much as possible. This is needed to allow them to collect massive amounts of data and refine the training engine.

To me this shows that Tesla really will be the leader in real world ai going forward. It also suggests that companies like Apple may not have any possibility to develop this type of tech without changing their old school approach.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Ya got me thinking - what is the acceptable equivalent BEV vs ICE?

Most cannot drive 250 straight without rest (and charging). So then what EV range should be used to compared to ICE for cost parity on the initial purchase only?

Thought experiment... imagine a world of Super Chargers every 50 miles. In this scenario, I'd think 150 mi range would be sufficient to get anywhere needed. (Trucks and towing aside.) It's a bit like comparing two ICE vehicles where one has 2x the horsepower. If we based it off of horsepower BEVs are WAY cheaper. Seems pretty subjective overall.

Maybe best to just point out to newcomers that BEVs are competitive even on sticker price as the battery costs and manufacturing techniques drive the costs down further, while the real savings pay back over time.

(Edit: Mostly OT, but what if we could draw an acceptable line of comparison that could attract more sales to the lower range BEV side? That would result in more vehicles sold for the same battery volume. Are we simply range happy due to past struggles and the media?)

I'd have to say that depends. Is that 250 mile range at a highway speed of 80mph, with heat or AC, and in the "recommended" 10% min (for a buffer) to 80% (to stay on the fast part of the charging curve) (so 70% of the battery capacity)? If so I think most ICE drivers wouldn't have that big an issue converting. If that 250 mile range is "EPA range"-not so much. If I'm road tripping, I'm typically setting the cruise between 80 and 90, ac on and want to drive at least 3 hours straight before a stop of say 20 minutes or so-with a comfortable fuel reserve.

I come back to the point that the EPA needs 2 range "ratings" a city rating and a highway rating at highway speeds, with AC on. Give buyers some honest, realistic expectations.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Optimus update from Tesla...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705728820693668189

People of the earth, I have hairs sticking up on my neck. Speed and precision. Like the steering on the car eventually smooths out, and like the deer who just starts walking then figures it out on it's own. I just saw the future!

This is exactly why I will need to buy my other shares back soon. This could also mean production miss as they try to juice the share price. Could be wrong but I just said the robot might just show us something cool... like yesterday I believe.

(Edit to fix stutter.)

 

[EVWatcher]

People of the earth, I have hairs sticking up on my neck. Speed and precision. Like the steering on the car eventually smooths out, and like the deer who just starts walking then figures it out on it's own. I just saw the future!

This is exactly why I will need to buy my other shares back soon. This could also mean production miss as they try to juice the share price. Could be wrong but I just said the robot might just show us something cool... like yesterday I believe.

(Edit to fix stutter.)

Still only impressive if you understand what’s going on under the hood. Otherwise Boston dynamics looks light years ahead

 

[heltok]

Optimus update from Tesla...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705728820693668189

Quick takeaways.

The robot is a lot less shaky
The control algorithm for the sorting is quick to update to disturbances while still being smooth, indicating that it is pure RL, not only high level RL.
Hands are next level, so much more impressive than anything else I have seen.
Doing robot yoga is not super hard, but at least that's not a problem anymore.

Before when you compared Optimus to Atlas you could point at some things that Atlas did a lot better. Not very important ones, but visual ones to impress the masses. Now that advantage has decreased a lot, meanwhile Tesla's advantage in scalability is still there.

It will be interesting to follow the development. They are probably pushing hard on all levers for their development so we are seeing multiple improvements per demo and there are likely many things they are not demoing. This demo indicates that they believe in using neural networks even more for control, maybe FSD 12 has given Elon an indication how Optimus software will end up.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Still only impressive if you understand what’s going on under the hood. Otherwise Boston dynamics looks light years ahead

At first, yes. But experts will translate, and they'll be talking. People understand Monkey see Monkey do. It reinforces FSD case and Dojo power.

 

[EVWatcher]

Quick takeaways.

The robot is a lot less shaky
The control algorithm for the sorting is quick to update to disturbances while still being smooth, indicating that it is pure RL, not only high level RL.
Hands are next level, so much more impressive than anything else I have seen.
Doing robot yoga is not super hard, but at least that's not a problem anymore.

Before when you compared Optimus to Atlas you could point at some things that Atlas did a lot better. Not very important ones, but visual ones to impress the masses. Now that advantage has decreased a lot, meanwhile Tesla's advantage in scalability is still there.

It will be interesting to follow the development. They are probably pushing hard on all levers for their development so we are seeing multiple improvements per demo and there are likely many things they are not demoing. This demo indicates that they believe in using neural networks even more for control, maybe FSD 12 has given Elon an indication how Optimus software will end up.

watching it a few times, when the guy moves the legos to showcase how Optimus can react it’s very obvious that the whole video is sped up, which is a little disappointing.

Still, I realize it’s pretty impressive

 

[jerry33]

Taking a rental car on a trip is not so great. Unfamiliar car, unfamiliar road, questionable maintenance are just a few of the downsides.

 

[Cosmacelf]

watching it a few times, when the guy moves the legos to showcase how Optimus can react it’s very obvious that the whole video is sped up, which is a little disappointing.

Still, I realize it’s pretty impressive

Yeah, but I can forgive them since this is a general audience video and real time would have made it too slow for most people to watch.

These working prototypes are interesting. They have a lot more heavy duty wires visible than I had seen before.

I’m impressed. I’m still wondering how they are going to get non engineers to “train” them for specific tasks.

 

[EVWatcher]

Yeah, but I can forgive them since this is a general audience video and real time would have made it too slow for most people to watch.

These working prototypes are interesting. They have a lot more heavy duty wires visible than I had seen before.

I’m impressed. I’m still wondering how they are going to get non engineers to “train” them for specific tasks.

I would imagine it makes more sense to train it to watch just a person like any human trainee would than to hire a bunch of people to do things with a bulky set of cameras on their head.

If it can learn to mirror the actions of a person standing in front of them teaching it becomes like teaching any other person.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah, but I can forgive them since this is a general audience video and real time would have made it too slow for most people to watch.

These working prototypes are interesting. They have a lot more heavy duty wires visible than I had seen before.

I’m impressed. I’m still wondering how they are going to get non engineers to “train” them for specific tasks.

I don't think anyone needs to be an engineer for training. I believe they are just having the worker wear the stereo head gear and feeding Dojo raw video of the task.

Calibrate the nodes, which I see as a separate function, combined with aligning the viewing angle to the robot eyes in vector world much like the Birdseye view in our vehicles. The trainer may not need headgear, could be an overhead stereo camera (IMO). What's the difference really. Then load the Block Sorting V1.0 for the task and press go.

There are so many FSD parallels here. (Not an expert, just how I interpret the video based on prior demos and FSD).