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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It wouldn't be fair to call Q3 Deliveries "noise". It'd be much more accurate to call them "noice":
G'day, mate!
G'day, mate!
Japan, UK, Australia/NZ combined are way less than 30% of S/X demand. They were never up to 10% of sales.
Energy and mass are conserved in a chemical reaction. Those are fundamental laws. Those laws are immutable until you get into the realm of nuclear reactions
Whether or not, battery mass increases Is a separate question.
9 total ships at sea as of today. About 30k of inventory right here.
Also explains why Ford is pushing back with regard to the vehicle electrification plants (battery, etc.)...they are trying not to let the UAW get their foot in the door there. The UAW, of course, knows this and that's why they are pushing on that front. Can you imagine the discussions happening at the executive levels at Ford? I mean stuff like "The ICE business is going to collapse. We need to find a way to ABANDON it and not be saddled with all the debt and old contracts if we are to SURVIVE. It's the only way.". It seems fantastical when I type it, but why else segregate the business and show the dirty laundry of their EV losses? So many here and elsewhere have labeled this a hyper bull scenario, and even now I find it difficult to believe, but....
Ah, so the trailer weighs more than the estimates I saw online for a semi flatbed. So the Tesla Semi is still within the range of what a Diesel Semi Day acab weight, just at the higher wnd of that range... of course it's not carrying fuel also.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
U.S. Federal Transport regulations allow a maximum combined weight of 82,000 lbs for electric semi trucks (tractor + trailer + payload), whereas the max allowed weight for diesel trucks is 80,000 lbs. That extra ton of gross weight will all go to batteries (at 0.2KWh/Kg, that's ~200KWh of extra batteries)
Yeah. I'm surprised truck manufacturers or the TSLAQ crowd hasn't made a fuss about that: "See! Electric semis are getting preferential treatment all the while their heavier trucks tear up our roads!"
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I seem to recall some aspect of the IRA where in 2024 the $7,500 becomes an actual rebate at purchase, rather than continuing as a tax rebate.
And Tesla knew that. Paid for tooling and amortized R&D is nice, but what is the floor before Tesla exits?
As I said in my Q2 earnings call video I projected that if production continued increasing at a rate of 21% per month (estimated from earnings call info), then Tesla would hit 20 million cells produced from Austin by sometime in October ...
It turns into a point of sale rebate, that is just a time shifted version of the current non-refundable tax credit. One still needs to qualify for it, lest they repay it at filing time.
2023:
Pay full price for car; pay $7,500 less in federal tax
2024:
Pay $7,500 less for car; pay normal federal tax
This bears repeating.
I think people underestimate the impact of the point of sale rebate. The decision to buy becomes a lot easier when the government is handing you a free down payment. For many buyers, this makes the loan smaller and the all-important monthly payment smaller as well.
Tesla is going to sell a lot more cars because of this one little change.
I believe the consensus is that the new Model Y RWD is LFP from China, the same vehicle that was being shipped from China to Canada recently.
Side note that the new trim isn't currently on the IRS list of IRA eligible vehicles, the list contains the Model Y AWD but there's no RWD trim. But the Tesla website applies the $7500 credit, so maybe the IRS list just needs to be updated.
If it does qualify for the IRA credit, I'd expect that to be cut off in 2024 as batteries containing any Chinese components are supposed to be disqualified from any credit. This trim might be sold for three months only, or something else might happen.
Side note that the new trim isn't currently on the IRS list of IRA eligible vehicles, the list contains the Model Y AWD but there's no RWD trim. But the Tesla website applies the $7500 credit, so maybe the IRS list just needs to be updated.
If it does qualify for the IRA credit, I'd expect that to be cut off in 2024 as batteries containing any Chinese components are supposed to be disqualified from any credit. This trim might be sold for three months only, or something else might happen.
Yeah, the IRS list is populated by information provided by the manufacturers. If Tesla is showing the credit, it will appear on the IRS list soon.
One item I'd like clarified. I assume if you buy a car for say $40K, you will pay sales tax on the full $40K and THEN get the $7500 off the final amount. In short, I am assuming it will NOT reduce the actual purchase price for SALES TAX purposes (much like the current tax rebate doesn't impact that at all). Does that sound correct? I bring it up as the sales tax on $7500 is about $470 here in Texas and other areas are probably similar.
If it does qualify for $7500 then I'm surprised it ever came to Canada
Feels like a battery shipped straight over from Shanghai still qualifying kinda exemplifies how generously the IRA has been interpreted lol + why it is forecasted to massively exceed the original budget impact from the CBO
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