Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

It turns into a point of sale rebate, that is just a time shifted version of the current non-refundable tax credit. One still needs to qualify for it, lest they repay it at filing time.
2023:
Pay full price for car; pay $7,500 less in federal tax
2024:
Pay $7,500 less for car; pay normal federal tax

Thanks for the clarification.

Kinda feel sorry for those who get the credit at purchase and then cannot apply it at tax return time. I wonder if the option to defer it (use it the way it is done now) will be an option?

Particularly, if there is no impact to the Sales Tax at time of purchase, as @cab asked above.

I suppose there might be some value in using it at time of purchase to reduce the loan amount (and subsequent interest), then deal with the IRS later, if there is any shortfall in applying to the following year's tax return.

 

[Krugerrand]

Indeed. Self inflicted

You only say that because you think sales of the S/X are important/needed/required in some business way to Tesla.

In reality, Tesla decided not making those vehicles was a better choice than making them. That you don’t know why they made that decision isn’t relevant nor does it make it self-inflicted - (as you mean that to be a bad thing for the company).

 

[mongo]

If it does qualify for $7500 then I'm surprised it ever came to Canada

Feels like a battery shipped straight over from Shanghai still qualifying kinda exemplifies how generously the IRA has been interpreted lol + why it is forecasted to massively exceed the original budget impact from the CBO

My understanding is that the later IRS guidance allowed grouping an entire vehicle line or factory together when calculating the percentages. So the Panasonic cells combined with Chinese hit the needed target for all cars, even though individual cars didn't meet the threshold.

One item I'd like clarified. I assume if you buy a car for say $40K, you will pay sales tax on the full $40K and THEN get the $7500 off the final amount. In short, I am assuming it will NOT reduce the actual purchase price for SALES TAX purposes (much like the current tax rebate doesn't impact that at all). Does that sound correct? I bring it up as the sales tax on $7500 is about $470 here in Texas and other areas are probably similar.

That is my understanding. It is applied as a credit, not a price reduction.

Thanks for the clarification.

Kinda feel sorry for those who get the credit at purchase and then cannot apply it at tax return time. I wonder if the option to defer it (use it the way it is done now) will be an option?

Particularly, if there is no impact to the Sales Tax at time of purchase, as @cab asked above.

I suppose there might be some value in using it at time of purchase to reduce the loan amount (and subsequent interest), then deal with the IRS later, if there is any shortfall in applying to the following year's tax return.

I expect one can easily not take the rebate as the purchaser needs to claim eligibility at time of sale.

Does stink if life situation results in later ineligibility, especially since it's not a graduated cutoff. One dollar over on income? No credit for you.
There is some level of stability though in that the current or previous year can be used for income eligibility.

 

[Usain]

Yeah, the IRS list is populated by information provided by the manufacturers. If Tesla is showing the credit, it will appear on the IRS list soon.

The note about how the credit is likely to be reduced in 2024 is still present for the Model 3 LFP but it is not there for the RWD MY. So that would be one clue that maybe the RWD MY is not a China LFP model. Or it could just be that the web site hasn't been updated with the warning.

 

[Words of HABIT]

If it does qualify for $7500 then I'm surprised it ever came to Canada

Feels like a battery shipped straight over from Shanghai still qualifying kinda exemplifies how generously the IRA has been interpreted lol + why it is forecasted to massively exceed the original budget impact from the CBO

Most Canadian provinces offer even greater incentives for buying EVs than that of the US. (Table below in CAD). These rebates (Model Y RWD would apply) are not tied into one's income and taxes paid like the US, straight rebate for all buyers. When possible Tesla delivers their EVs to Countries that allow maximum advantage of government incentives.

The Easiest Way to Buy or Sell a Car | Canada Drives

Canada Drives is the easiest way to buy or sell a car. Get pre-approved for your next purchase or get an instant quote to sell your vehicle directly to Canada Drives.

www.canadadrives.ca

 

[GhostSkater]

Honestly, I was disappointed to hear about the clutch in and out for the higher torque motor. More moving parts. No part is the best part. I'm sure Tesla has considered wear, tear, maintenance as part of TCO. Nonetheless, I was a little disappointed to learn the semi couldn't avoid extra parts like the cars...

There is a really good reason for the clutch and why the Semi has but the passenger vehicles don't

The two climb motors have a significantly higher gear ratio, close to double the cruising motor, there is a whole another stage to them. The climb motors are likely reaching 20k rpm under 100 mph, we can calculate that, been meaning to do that for a while, just need to find a bit of time

On a Model S/X, you will only get to 20k rpm at over 200 mph. The problem is that rpm related losses (core losses) grows somewhere between to the square to the cube of rpm, so if your motor is off but running at close to 20k rpm with you just cruising it can be a significant power hog, on top of you also having to spend energy to cool it

Here is an example from some real data from real motors, these are palm sized ones weighting around 1 kg and capable of 3 to 5 hp, so power density is comparable to the motors Tesla makes, but the principle is the same, it becomes a heater just by being off and spun fast

Another way to look at it is that when you need the power, you need to spin a motor really fast because that is where it's most efficient and can make the most power, but spinning it really fast when little power is needed, such as cruising on flat, it's really inefficient

A Semi needs around 80 kW for cruising of flat road fully loaded, a single motor spinning at half of the 20k rpm limit can easily do that all day long and efficiently

A few more plots of one of the motors from the graph above, first one is an efficiency map and second is a power output map, ignore all the white labels and lines, not relevant

Let's say we need low power for cruising at just 640 W, if we spin the motor at 11000 rpm, we will operate at 75% efficiency and have 160 W of waste heat, or we can operate at 2500 rpm at 90%+ efficiency and have just 64 W of waste heat

Now for the other scenario, climbing a big hill and we need 2.5 kW of power, at 2500 rpm this would be 80% efficiency and 500 W of waste heat, that motor would cook in no time, but at 11000 rpm we operate at 92% efficiency and just 200 W of waste heat, way more manageable

Now circling back to why the passenger cars doesn't need the axle clutch, the motor are always operating at slow rpm at normal driving speeds, such as the power lost is so low that it doesn't warrant the complexity added

The Semi is pushing the motors to it's limit, from the above about needing high rpm for high power, in my opinion the two acceleration motors are putting significantly more power each than the cruise motor, if we go from the gear ratios and 1500 hp Dan gave us, I would say each climb motor does close to 600 hp while the cruise motor are on the high 300s hp

 

[Crystal01]

You only say that because you think sales of the S/X are important/needed/required in some business way to Tesla.

In reality, Tesla decided not making those vehicles was a better choice than making them. That you don’t know why they made that decision isn’t relevant nor does it make it self-inflicted - (as you mean that to be a bad thing for the company).

I think you are missing a bigger point here. Sure it might not have made sense in a short term cost sense to make these but the people that were affected were the hard core champions on the ground. The pioneers that backed Tesla from early on. Whole thing was handled and communicated very poorly. So yes it does and should matter very much to Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In reality, Tesla decided not making those vehicles was a better choice than making them.

... and that's w/o even considering recent reports that Tesla is about to introduce a Model 3 "Plaid" in Europe to replace the no-longer-offered Model 3 Performance. Any chance the business decision was that Model S Plaid would sell poorly compared to Model 3 Plaid?

'jus sayin'

 

[AndrewZ]

My understanding is that the later IRS guidance allowed grouping an entire vehicle line or factory together when calculating the percentages. So the Panasonic cells combined with Chinese hit the needed target for all cars, even though individual cars didn't meet the threshold.

RWD is not on Tesla's list either, but maybe that also needs updating lol

 

[larmor]

Weakness is TSLA continues despite continued growth and inline retooling for cheaper or faster production, in setting of UAW strike who are making tesla killers (/s), new product line to be delivered any day now, and pathway to FSD now clear by getting AI to watch videos of drivers guarding their safety scores...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Most Canadian provinces offer even greater incentives for buying EVs than that of the US. (Table below in CAD). These rebates (Model Y RWD would apply) are not tied into one's income and taxes paid like the US, straight rebate for all buyers. When possible Tesla delivers their EVs to Countries that allow maximum advantage of government incentives.

View attachment 979232

The Easiest Way to Buy or Sell a Car | Canada Drives

Canada Drives is the easiest way to buy or sell a car. Get pre-approved for your next purchase or get an instant quote to sell your vehicle directly to Canada Drives.

www.canadadrives.ca

I see some correlation between Canadian EV rebates and the impact of climate change in each province. Between forest fires or smoke, angry seas, and a changing fish market, the EV discounts reflect their respective pain levels.

Also, where the heck is Nunavut? Did Canada annex the Tundra or something? Is Nanook's igloo is melting already?

 

[cliff harris]

I think you are missing a bigger point here. Sure it might not have made sense in a short term cost sense to make these but the people that were affected were the hard core champions on the ground. The pioneers that backed Tesla from early on. Whole thing was handled and communicated very poorly. So yes it does and should matter very much to Tesla.

Agreed 100%. I got my model S in 2015, before the X was even a product. All us early adopters who stretched their finances to buy an amazing electric car, have fond memories of the S, or maybe even still have an old one we want to upgrade.
Even if Tesla didn't make a single penny profit on RHD model S/X for those early adopters, its worth doing because those people are the loudest evangelists for the brand. (or they were...).
Maybe a new RHD model S is coming, but the radio silence and gap in production is a big marketing failure.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Agreed 100%. I got my model S in 2015, before the X was even a product. All us early adopters who stretched their finances to buy an amazing electric car, have fond memories of the S, or maybe even still have an old one we want to upgrade.
Even if Tesla didn't make a single penny profit on RHD model S/X for those early adopters, its worth doing because those people are the loudest evangelists for the brand. (or they were...).
Maybe a new RHD model S is coming, but the radio silence and gap in production is a big marketing failure.

You understand how irrational this is, right? "Even if they don't make a single penny", Tesla is a business and the MS/X sales for RHD were obviously low enough and not worth the cost of changing production to fill them, plus you can drive lhd vehicles there. I did for 4 years.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I see some correlation between Canadian EV rebates and the impact of climate change in each province. Between forest fires or smoke, angry seas, and a changing fish market, the EV discounts reflect their respective pain levels.

Also, where the heck is Nunavut? Did Canada annex the Tundra or something? Is Nanook's igloo is melting already?

It’s the eastern half of what used to be the entire Northwest Territory. Your humor flew right over my head FWIW.

Nunavut - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I see some correlation between Canadian EV rebates and the impact of climate change in each province. Between forest fires or smoke, angry seas, and a changing fish market, the EV discounts reflect their respective pain levels.

Also, where the heck is Nunavut? Did Canada annex the Tundra or something? Is Nanook's igloo is melting already?

Nunavut is a territory in northern Canada. It is Canadas largest territory. (There are 3). It used to be part of what was called the north west territories.

 

[Usain]

Bearded Tesla Guy found the EPA info for the new RWD MY. It's almost definitely the same LFP pack as in the RWD M3.

 

[Knightshade]

... and that's w/o even considering recent reports that Tesla is about to introduce a Model 3 "Plaid" in Europe to replace the no-longer-offered Model 3 Performance. Any chance the business decision was that Model S Plaid would sell poorly compared to Model 3 Plaid?

'jus sayin'

...what?

The performance is going to still be offered- this was in EU docs already known a couple weeks ago.

Tesla Model 3 'Highland' Performance Details Discovered in European Documents

Discover the revamped Tesla Model 3 Performance and its strategic enhancements. Explore the anticipation for its debut and what it holds for the electric vehic

www.notateslaapp.com

Still just dual motor.

Still no plaid at all except in peoples overactive imagnations.

 

[uscbucsfan]

...what?

The performance is going to still be offered- this was in EU docs already known a couple weeks ago.

Tesla Model 3 'Highland' Performance Details Discovered in European Documents

Discover the revamped Tesla Model 3 Performance and its strategic enhancements. Explore the anticipation for its debut and what it holds for the electric vehic

www.notateslaapp.com

Still just dual motor.

Still no plaid at all except in peoples overactive imagnations.

Elon has now said twice that a Plaid Model 3 makes no sense for Tesla.

 

[Knightshade]

Elon has now said twice that a Plaid Model 3 makes no sense for Tesla.

He also said the compact car won't be called model 2, hasn't stopped AD from ignoring him on both points though

 

[unk45]

Yeah. I'm surprised truck manufacturers or the TSLAQ crowd hasn't made a fuss about that: "See! Electric semis are getting preferential treatment all the while their heavier trucks tear up our roads!"

AFAIK the US-style State-by-State heavy truck licensing has been unaffected by Federal rules. Without knowing those rules we really don't know whether there si any material difference between BEV and ICE trucks. We do know there are auto and light truck differences. Does anybody have any definitive knowledge or research on geographical heavy truck rules? Whatever those rules it seems BEV heavy trucks are already highly competitive with some categories of mining trucks, busses, garbage trucks and others are having worldwide financial success.

The Tesla Semi does appear to by the only purpose-designed over-the-road heavy truck to be in successful operation now. With not too many modifications to Tesla Semi, but a few big ones on the entourage it si easy to imagine the Australian Road Trains and some categories of long-distance EU TIR vehicles becoming Tesla specialities. As the Tesla team mentions from time to time, the Tesla Semi is designed to accept universal NA trailer loads. A major opportunity might exist for loads (i.e. trailers) to be made compatible with semi through motors and less antediluvian connections rather than 12v and air brakes. Of course those would not be equipped with batteries because that would lessen the useful load.

This discussion would go elsewhere in detail, but the pure Investor interest is the probability that Tesla could and would pursue long distance specialized loads that have very high unit value, very high fossil fuel use at present and huge cost savings for operators coupled with Tesla Energy opportunity and servicing potential. Without Jerome, in particular, there may not be a truck-specific advocate in Tesla today, but...we should not underestimate the potential follow-on effects of things such as Elon Musk, Pepsi and the direct Tesla experience to/from Sparks.

According to truck.info there were only 30,000 Class 8 trucks sold in the US in 2022, suggesting that the addressable market is too small for major revenues. Such statistics understate the opportunity because the Class 8 market is regularly refurbished at high cost and operating costs can be hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Tesla Semi decimates the maintenance cost including the rarely mentioned semi-annual windshield replacemensts that will be minimized, the brakes that will not need to be refurbished and so on. Beyond that the opportunity for Tesla Energy through 'MegaCharging', subscriptions and servicing will all be far larger than are those for automobiles.

Since production is about to begin in Sparks these issues begin to be more relevant, not least because aftermarket conversions will not be long in coming. After all our own cherished forum originator, @AudubonB , has been planning for a maxi-RV since the original announcement of Tesla Semi.