Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Agreed 100%. I got my model S in 2015, before the X was even a product. All us early adopters who stretched their finances to buy an amazing electric car, have fond memories of the S, or maybe even still have an old one we want to upgrade.
Even if Tesla didn't make a single penny profit on RHD model S/X for those early adopters, its worth doing because those people are the loudest evangelists for the brand. (or they were...).
Maybe a new RHD model S is coming, but the radio silence and gap in production is a big marketing failure.

I only wish I was there since the start. And started investing then. I was only lucky enough to see one on the road back then. Just one.

Maybe if the US changes to metric, the UK can switch sides? The advantage is you could be creating your own EVs, taxis, and batteries for a larger market outside the UK. (Easier said than done.)

Eventually, it seems that Robotaxis could switch sides of the road without any changes in hardware, and expand TAM per vehicle design. Yet another cost savings - due to the volume increase.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think you are missing a bigger point here. Sure it might not have made sense in a short term cost sense to make these but the people that were affected were the hard core champions on the ground. The pioneers that backed Tesla from early on. Whole thing was handled and communicated very poorly. So yes it does and should matter very much to Tesla.

The S is over a decade old, the X not far behind. We’re way passed the pioneer days.

You’re clearly upset. I assume you were planning on buying one and missed the opportunity, though you did have several years to buy one.

Please share how Tesla should have communicated they were discontinuing these models to you personally so that you would feel content. And do you believe that method would have been amenable to everyone. In other words, what should Tesla have done to make EVERYONE happy.

 

[Krugerrand]

Agreed 100%. I got my model S in 2015, before the X was even a product. All us early adopters who stretched their finances to buy an amazing electric car, have fond memories of the S, or maybe even still have an old one we want to upgrade.
Even if Tesla didn't make a single penny profit on RHD model S/X for those early adopters, its worth doing because those people are the loudest evangelists for the brand. (or they were...).
Maybe a new RHD model S is coming, but the radio silence and gap in production is a big marketing failure.

That’s ridiculous. You’re suggesting that a company make a product for zero profit because a handful of people bought early models and supported the company and think they’re particularly special. Never mind what company we’re talking about and their mission.

AND!! The fact that many people had a conniption when Elon suggested that zero margins on cars was a future possibility because The Mission. Oh, the irony.

So let’s be clear; everyone concerned about the future of humanity thanks you and everyone else who bought early Tesla’s but you don’t get to wield that around as a reason to be treated special until the day you die. It’s been over a decade. Get over yourselves already.

 

[aronth5]

And let's be honest, even with the price cuts, still a expensive vehicle, specially at the current times, doesn't help being the best bang for your buck if people don't have the buck

Not that expensive in Mass if you include the Federal and Mass tax credits. $11k. Plus whatever trade in value you may have whether you do that with Tesla or 3rd party. Still not cheap but not bad.

 

[betstarship]

Yooooo, in business there is something called a customer acquisition cost:

What Is Customer Acquisition Cost? How to Calculate and Use CAC | Mailchimp

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Most consumer app companies are in the $5 range for it, I think. My info might be outdated at this point. What's Tesla's customer acquisition cost? How would that change if they start giving away stuff...compared to [careful: trigger word] ADS?

 

[Electroman]

But this business of things with higher energy having more mass is very, very real and present in chemical reactions everywhere. And it wouldn’t matter if the battery was mechanical somehow and built out of springs; wind the springs up and, yup, it’ll mass more. Not by a lot, given, but it’s real.

Very interesting.. I am learning something new. As a physics graduate, I did not know that.

 

[Tony73]

Um. Think of the battery as a black box with a couple of wires sticking out. With the thing fully discharged, weigh the sucker.

Attach power supply and clamp on current meter. Feed electrons in (Yeah, and out, it’s a complete circuit. Being a EE, the math is usually played with “positive” current going in the positive lead and out the negative lead, although the charge carriers are negatively charged: thanks, Ben Franklin!).

Disconnect the leads. Maybe wait for it all to cool down. Weigh it again. It’ll weigh more by a few micrograms, thank you, Einstein, seeing as there’s more energy in there. Charge carriers or whatever.

But I think you got me, though: For every electron going in the positive terminal, there’s one going out the negative terminal. The extra mass is probably showing up as a totality of bigger E-fields throughout the battery in the various ions as they get forced into higher energy states.

But this business of things with higher energy having more mass is very, very real and present in chemical reactions everywhere. And it wouldn’t matter if the battery was mechanical somehow and built out of springs; wind the springs up and, yup, it’ll mass more. Not by a lot, given, but it’s real.

Just out of curiosity: on a scale of 1 to 10, how confident are you in what you just wrote ? Can you provide one link to back it up ? The link will help us reach your level of enlightenment

 

[Snerruc]

Just some wandering comments: I’m speculating that Tesla is crashing vehicles in the new facility to validate the facility, not the cars. Just making sure they get similar results. The subject of Musk’s views having a positive/ negative effect on the company keeps coming up. This is why I do not consider stock in any company that is headed by a comparable figure an investment. There are simply too many unpredictable ways the company can be affected positively or negatively. This doesn’t mean I dont own them, but they are in a different category. As far as the semi, any major shift in the composition of the truck fleet depends just as much on getting charging out there in significant numbers. Just like with the S, it’s a chicken and egg situation.

 

[thx1139]

I would be surprised if at least a few are not delivered in December. But I get it. These have to be damn close to perfect.

Elon said Q3. So few in December would be huge disappointment.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon said Q3. So few in December would be huge disappointment.

Yes it would, although he also did warn us that manufacturing this beast was going to be complex with a lot of new technologies. Meaning that he was saying that we shouldn’t be surprised at delays.

Reminds me of the Model X. It took Tesla longer to figure out those Falcon wing doors than expected. Believe it or not, the original design for the Model X was going to use hydraulics to lift the doors. Tesla, even then, had outsourced the door lifting mechanism to an outside company. Hydraulics did not work (duh) and there was even a threat of a lawsuit against the poor hapless outsourced part maker.

 

[raffiniert]

Just out of curiosity: on a scale of 1 to 10, how confident are you in what you just wrote ? Can you provide one link to back it up ? The link will help us reach your level of enlightenment

The link was already provided.

 

[raffiniert]

Very interesting.. I am learning something new. As a physics graduate, I did not know that.

You graduated in physics? E = mc^2

 

[traxila]

How much more does a fully charged MS weigh?

Thought it would be fun to know how much weight the electrons actually add to the car. Is a fully charged MS measurably heavier than one running on empty? Thanks.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[cliff harris]

You understand how irrational this is, right? "Even if they don't make a single penny", Tesla is a business and the MS/X sales for RHD were obviously low enough and not worth the cost of changing production to fill them, plus you can drive lhd vehicles there. I did for 4 years.

There is a COST to damaging your brand by taking product evangelists and forcing them to buy another brand of car when they upgrade. How is this difficult to understand? You think its a great plan to take the first 1,000 UK owners of Teslas and tell them you cannot be bothered to make that car any more for their country, despite them being the most dedicated early-adopter brand ambassadors...I run two businesses. I would HAPPILY sell my product at cost (or even below it) to the loudest, most vocal supporters of my brand.

And lets be honest, if Tesla could make the RHD model S in 2015, what the hell has happened now to make it so difficult for them to offer the new version?

Oh and also, yeah you can pay $90,000 to buy a car designed to be driven on the wrong side of the road, but 99% of people are not going to ever do that. Imagine if Tesla was british and only selling RHD models in the US... you would be the first to scream at them about how arrogant and dumb that was.

 

[uscbucsfan]

There is a COST to damaging your brand by taking product evangelists and forcing them to buy another brand of car when they upgrade. How is this difficult to understand? You think its a great plan to take the first 1,000 UK owners of Teslas and tell them you cannot be bothered to make that car any more for their country, despite them being the most dedicated early-adopter brand ambassadors...I run two businesses. I would HAPPILY sell my product at cost (or even below it) to the loudest, most vocal supporters of my brand.

And lets be honest, if Tesla could make the RHD model S in 2015, what the hell has happened now to make it so difficult for them to offer the new version?

Oh and also, yeah you can pay $90,000 to buy a car designed to be driven on the wrong side of the road, but 99% of people are not going to ever do that. Imagine if Tesla was british and only selling RHD models in the US... you would be the first to scream at them about how arrogant and dumb that was.

Damaging the brand in the UK, maybe, probably not overall.

It's a relatively small market comparatively and the S/X has a much lower demand than the 3/Y. I just saw that only 11k MS have ever been sold in the UK...that's not worth changing production, it's reality.

Most of the world is LHD and it's an American company. Increasing efficiency and lowering cost is the prime directive for Tesla. It makes sense. Every lhd car company has models they don't make in rhd.

Maybe the UK should have purchased more...if the 11k number is true, that's horrible.

 

[Words of HABIT]

OEMs reported their Q3 P&D numbers today, figures for US only.

GM deliveries for US only reached 674,336 of only 20,000 which were BEV. This total was up 21% from Q3 2022. At end of quarter GM had 442,586 autos listed as inventory. GM advised their BrightDrop electric delivery vans have halted production this month until Spring 2024 due to battery module delays.

Stellantis delivered for North America only sales of 380,563, down 1% from Q3 2022. Their N.American inventories are above the national average. No mention of BEVs.

Honda delivered 331,608 vehicles, up 49.3% YOY. Do they sell any pure BEVs?

Toyota delivered 590,296 vehicles, up 12.2% YOY. Do they sell any pure BEVs?

Ford delivery estimate is for 493k vehicles (up 6.9% YOY). Their EV sales are shrinking.

Rough calculations would put the OEMs number 3X as noted above for their world wide sales (assuming 1/3 N.America, 1/3 Europe and 1/3 China). That is a lot of new ICE vehicles, not including the German OEM (Volkswagon, BMW and MB). So it looks like Tesla is going to do this transition to BEVs alone (with help from Chinese and Korean manufacturers) and a couple of upstarts, and it will be a long slog without help from the traditional OEM manufacturers. Sad.

Two sources: AFP, The Detroit News, and IBD Digital:

GM reports higher Q3 sales as strike tests outlook — AFP News

GM Q3 sales beat expectations, up 21% from Q3 2022

GM ended the quarter with 442,586 vehicles in dealer inventory marking the best quarter ending since the third quarter of 2020.

www.detroitnews.com

General Motors Takes Q3 Sales Crown, But GM Stock Makes New Low

Citing expectations for strong Q3 auto sales, analyts hiked their forecast for the full year.

www.investors.com

 

[AndrewZ]

Anyone paying attention to the doomsday treasury yield and prime rate postulations?

Some of the talking heads are putting 13% 10-year yields out there over the next decade, Peter Schiff on Twitter talking about 20% prime

 

[Cosmacelf]

Anyone paying attention to the doomsday treasury yield and prime rate postulations?

Some of the talking heads are putting 13% 10-year yields out there over the next decade, Peter Schiff on Twitter talking about 20% prime

When was the last time Peter Schiff was right? He must have like a 1% batting average.

 

[AndrewZ]

When was the last time Peter Schiff was right? He must have like a 1% batting average.

Yeah I don't even know, but he's just one example I saw on Twitter with a number way out there. Not sure how this shakes out with the massive US deficit and bond issuance along with what's happening around the world. Hedge funds hugely shorting US treasuries, long end of the curve keeps moving up.

Reality is probably somewhere in the middle but the next decade could be very different from the last

 

[Krugerrand]

There is a COST to damaging your brand by taking product evangelists and forcing them to buy another brand of car when they upgrade. How is this difficult to understand? You think its a great plan to take the first 1,000 UK owners of Teslas and tell them you cannot be bothered to make that car any more for their country, despite them being the most dedicated early-adopter brand ambassadors...I run two businesses. I would HAPPILY sell my product at cost (or even below it) to the loudest, most vocal supporters of my brand.

So, you’ve personally talked to all 1,000 people and documented their opinion on the topic? Great. Let’s see/hear the story via and independent source - not that I don’t trust you, but no I couldn’t possibly take your word for it.

And lets be honest, if Tesla could make the RHD model S in 2015, what the hell has happened now to make it so difficult for them to offer the new version?

Honestly, you obviously don’t know a thing on the topic and to assume there’s not a valid business reason for it - well, why are you even here invested in a company you don’t trust to make the best business decisions it can at any given moment.

Oh and also, yeah you can pay $90,000 to buy a car designed to be driven on the wrong side of the road, but 99% of people are not going to ever do that. Imagine if Tesla was british and only selling RHD models in the US... you would be the first to scream at them about how arrogant and dumb that was.

You’re being dramatic now to try and prove that your opinion is everyone else’s opinion.