Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Worst that happens is Rivian fails and they hire the developers.

If Rivian fails, those developers won't want to work for VW. They will go elsewhere.

Even in the best case, outsourcing software is not for the faint of heart. It often ends in failure.

I give the whole venture less than 50% chance of success for VW.

For Rivian, it's a much-needed lifeline. I hope they make it.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Almost all the roundabouts I see are one lane. Either there is a car on your left (you yield) or not (you go). With multiple lanes, it's a different story.

It's an interesting optimization case, we have spiral layout (pic) or circular. The spiral is essentially a single lane.

 

[Usain]

So I've been mulling over Elon's shareholder meeting comment about how their FSD test drivers are getting bored:

And if it’s like in an urban environment, and the average speed is 20 miles an hour, I mean, our professional test drivers get pretty bored, frankly. They’re like, “Okay, I drove all week, and there was no intervention.” Like the highlight of the week would be like, “Yes, an intervention finally.” It’s like getting to that point.

I think most of us using FSD reacted with, "Really? I get interventions all the time. What are you talking about?"

What if Elon is talking about his professional test drivers who are working on rolling out the robotaxi service? This would be done in a location where FSD already works well and they are doing mock runs pretending to pick up passengers. Tesla would want to make sure FSD is close to perfection in that location and it's quite conceivable that drivers could go a week without an intervention.

If that's what Elon was talking about in the shareholder meeting then we could easily hear an announcement about starting up the robotaxi service on 8/8. It could start operating with safety drivers almost immediately.

 

[uscbucsfan]

So I've been mulling over Elon's shareholder meeting comment about how their FSD test drivers are getting bored:


I think most of us using FSD reacted with, "Really? I get interventions all the time. What are you talking about?"

What if Elon is talking about his professional test drivers who are working on rolling out the robotaxi service? This would be done in a location where FSD already works well and they are doing mock runs pretending to pick up passengers. Tesla would want to make sure FSD is close to perfection in that location and it's quite conceivable that drivers could go a week without an intervention.

If that's what Elon was talking about in the shareholder meeting then we could easily hear an announcement about starting up the robotaxi service on 8/8. It could start operating with safety drivers almost immediately.

Most, including people like Whole Mars, believe that 8/8 will be the platform reveal, not anything advanced. Sure, there could be some scripted demo, but as most reveals with Tesla, it likely won't be a ready to launch product.

Also, the intervention thing he was saying 12.4, 12.5, and 12.6 were all exhibiting the same thing, but when they rolled 12.4 out to actual testers, it was a regression from 12.3. So I wouldn't put a ton of weight into that statement.

 

[sunwarriors]

Although this VW/Rivian deal has made Rivian’s stock shoot up, I ultimately don’t see it as a positive for them:

1. Rather than bear down and enact true cost-saving measures, they were “saved” by an infusion of cash. Tesla, on the other hand, was forced to find ways to cut costs. A cash infusion results in less incentive to cut costs. Rivian may he making their way toward profitability, but something like this won’t help them streamline operations.

2. This means you have another hand in the pot. Another potentially dissenting voice in the decision making that will need to be reconciled. Rule by committee is never efficient, and VW will want their say in how things go.

I think one of the reasons Tesla is so nimble and was able to get their margins up so quickly is because they don’t have many hands in the decision-making pot trying to steer the direction of the company. This is probably a net positive for VW, clearly a short-term net positive for Rivian’s stock, but longer-term I think it will be a net negative for Rivian as a company.

Does anyone here even drink anything other than the Tesla kool-aid? It's so strange that everything anyone else is doing is always majorly bad when to your 1st point, the whole gen2 R1T/R1S updates were focused a lot on true cost-saving measures that you said weren't even considered. Maybe watch/read about the gen2 R1 platform before shooting off misleading info.

Rivian unveils next-gen R1 EVs to cut cost without affecting driver experience

Rivian has unveiled its next-generation R1S and R1T electric vehicles to cut cost without affecting the driver experience negatively. In...

electrek.co

Lots of changes:

Review: 2025 Rivian R1T and R1S gain efficiency, comfort, and a lifeline

Rivian has made its R1 lineup lighter, more efficient, and less complicated to build—and better to drive.

www.greencarreports.com

This is not a Rivian forum, but bottom line is Rivian simply needed $$ to be able to get to releasing R2/R3 and this was the deal they chose. New gen 2 trucks can go up to 420 miles of range vs. 300s for Cybertruck. Yeah, I get stock investors here are biased and wants to see the competition all die, but total head in the sand with your comments.

Tesla margins were high because they were the only EV game in town (outside of Bolt/Leaf). Their net margins were 5.5% in Q1 (used to be close to 20%). which is legacy auto numbers. Remember the $68k MY? Tesla gross margins is like legacy auto makers (Ford has like $14k gross margins on the F150 I've post/found before).

 

[insaneoctane]

Stock opened fairly strong this morning, shooting up to 190 quickly. Aruuuuuuu-gah.....Aruuuuuuu-gah sounded the submarine-like alarms as the MM quickly fire up the sledge-o-matic. Someday it won't be enough. Is that day today? Anyone else shocked to realize that TSLA's 52 week high is $299.29? Seems like an eternity ago....

 

[Huskyf]

Oups what's going on with TSLA$ VW buy share of it ??

 

[SOULPEDL]

OMG... Sell!!!!

 

[Usain]

Sure, Rivian is up 35% today. That's nutthin'.

Check out Faraday Future up over 60%:

0.4241+0.1591 (+60.0378%)
As of 09:49AM EDT. Market open.

 

[Usain]

Also, the intervention thing he was saying 12.4, 12.5, and 12.6 were all exhibiting the same thing, but when they rolled 12.4 out to actual testers, it was a regression from 12.3. So I wouldn't put a ton of weight into that statement.

I put more weight than that into it. I don't think Elon was just making stuff up about test drivers getting bored.

He must have at least heard reports that his test drivers were going days without intervention. This was happening at some time under some kind of circumstances. We just don't know exactly what the circumstances were.

 

[wtlloyd]

I agree that this isn't going to end well.
I don't think Rivian are at all enthusiastic about working with VW. Why would they be? VW are famous for really bad software, and a management team that clearly despise EVs and think that continuing to cheat emissions tests is the future. Imagine a decent rivian automotive programmer being told they have to go work with a bunch of volkswagen developers? You joined a small young EV startup, now you work with the dieselgate team...

This is a desperate attempt to stop rivian having to bankrupt (or as stated above, to confront their own issues) joined with a desperate attempt by VW to get some 'ev startup' association to juice their stock.

I'm sure in the short term we will get geniuses like jim cramer saying what a huge downer this is for Tesla now VW have rivians software or whatever. It will all be absolute BS though.

Nail on the head. An inadequate management team is joining forces with a petrified management team.
Change is afoot! (not)

 

[Musskiah]

What if Elon is talking about his professional test drivers who are working on rolling out the robotaxi service? This would be done in a location where FSD already works well and they are doing mock runs pretending to pick up passengers. Tesla would want to make sure FSD is close to perfection in that location and it's quite conceivable that drivers could go a week without an intervention.

Once of these places is NE Ohio. I drive 100+ miles per day on average, mostly city streets, 99%+ of the time on FSD. Since 12.3.x, I have gone weeks without an intervention. I have a 2021 MX (pre-refresh) with no internal camera and a 2022 MY. Both HW 3. I know several Tesla owners in the area with similar experince. Anecdotally, here in Ohio, FSD seems ready for professional safety robo-copilots.

I have been driving Autopilot since 2016 and FSD since early inception (I had a 99 safety score for the original rollout), so it is possible I am much more trusting than the average user of FSD. Nonetheless, I am accident-free with FSD; in fact, as I have shared many times here, FSD has saved me from at least four bad accidents where I would not have been at fault (car ran a red light in a white-out storm preventing a driver-side collision, box truck tried to merge into me from my blind spot on on the highway at 2am on the way to Maine, etc).

The areas requiring interventions have generally been construction zones with signs that FSD cannot read...yet. No doubt this limitation is very temporary.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I put more weight than that into it. I don't think Elon was just making stuff up about test drivers getting bored.

He must have at least heard reports that his test drivers were going days without intervention. This was happening at some time under some kind of circumstances. We just don't know exactly what the circumstances were.

As I said here when he stated it. He said between 12.4, 12.5, and 12.6, they can't tell which is the best version because they can't get an intervention.

If that were true, why are they struggling to release a version of 12.4 to the masses that isn't a regression. He even said on Twitter that 12.4.1 isn't ready to take over for 12.3.6.

Elon, especially with FSD, likes to add a lot of hype. Most don't put a lot of weight into because of the history of his comments, but I guess some have short memories.

Regardless, hopefully we get 12.4.X in the next month or so and it is an improvement. That's more important than his quotes, the actual product and I think most would agree that 12.3.X was a large leap from V11, but yes...there are still and will still be interventions. It's not even feature complete, it hasn't been trained to recognize school buses, misreads speed limits, etc, but improvement is what is important.

 

[wtlloyd]

If Rivian fails, those developers won't want to work for VW. They will go elsewhere.

Even in the best case, outsourcing software is not for the faint of heart. It often ends in failure.

I give the whole venture less than 50% chance of success for VW.

For Rivian, it's a much-needed lifeline. I hope they make it.

This is the clearest indication possible that VW haven't figured out a solution to their software problems. They must have recognized that their software team is incorrigible. I hope that the joint venture is firewalled and able to develop from Rivian's coding without the lethargy and numerous duchys established within VW's program.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla green because all those tesla killers from VW need software from RIVN

RIVN now belongs to AMZN, VW .. harder for APPL to buy

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA is up 9.5% over the last month

 

[philw1776]

This is the clearest indication possible that VW haven't figured out a solution to their software problems. They must have recognized that their software team is incorrigible. I hope that the joint venture is firewalled and able to develop from Rivian's coding without the lethargy and numerous duchys established within VW's program.

Their SW team is pathetic. Problem in Europe is it's hard to fire people so SW costs are now higher than ever. Also how many Rivian SW folk were in it for the startup score of a huge stock payout? Being part of a sclerotic org will not appeal to them. I know this because in the 80s my computer company was bought by a German firm. Developers were not happy.

 

[Todd Burch]

Does anyone here even drink anything other than the Tesla kool-aid? It's so strange that everything anyone else is doing is always majorly bad when to your 1st point, the whole gen2 R1T/R1S updates were focused a lot on true cost-saving measures that you said weren't even considered. Maybe watch/read about the gen2 R1 platform before shooting off misleading info.

Rivian unveils next-gen R1 EVs to cut cost without affecting driver experience

Rivian has unveiled its next-generation R1S and R1T electric vehicles to cut cost without affecting the driver experience negatively. In...

electrek.co

Lots of changes:

Review: 2025 Rivian R1T and R1S gain efficiency, comfort, and a lifeline

Rivian has made its R1 lineup lighter, more efficient, and less complicated to build—and better to drive.

www.greencarreports.com

This is not a Rivian forum, but bottom line is Rivian simply needed $$ to be able to get to releasing R2/R3 and this was the deal they chose. New gen 2 trucks can go up to 420 miles of range vs. 300s for Cybertruck. Yeah, I get stock investors here are biased and wants to see the competition all die, but total head in the sand with your comments.

Tesla margins were high because they were the only EV game in town (outside of Bolt/Leaf). Their net margins were 5.5% in Q1 (used to be close to 20%). which is legacy auto numbers. Remember the $68k MY? Tesla gross margins is like legacy auto makers (Ford has like $14k gross margins on the F150 I've post/found before).

Dude what are you talking about?

I didn’t disparage Rivian at all. Nor did I say I wanted Rivian to die.

Just said that one more big hand in their pot is not going to be a net positive for them. Which I think most people would agree with. But that triggered you for some reason…

Rivian developers now have a big distraction. Rather than continuing to make improvements for Rivian vehicles, they now have to support a whole bunch of other vehicles from VW.

And are you seriously comparing ICE margins to Tesla’s EV margins? Lol. The challenge has been in making EVs profitable. ICEs have been profitable for over a hundred years.

 

[Discoducky]

Most, including people like Whole Mars, believe that 8/8 will be the platform reveal, not anything advanced. Sure, there could be some scripted demo, but as most reveals with Tesla, it likely won't be a ready to launch product.

Also, the intervention thing he was saying 12.4, 12.5, and 12.6 were all exhibiting the same thing, but when they rolled 12.4 out to actual testers, it was a regression from 12.3. So I wouldn't put a ton of weight into that statement.

Here's my mental experiment on why it not only makes sense for Tesla to show the vehicle, demonstrate how the experience will work, but also start (at least announce a start date for the existing fleet) supervised Robotaxi's.

Why? Hypothetically, lets say that FSD had hit the milestones for months of driving without an intervention. Then, what would be the next step? Well, you'd want to start doing rideshare and exercising the app experience, pick-up/drop-off experience, wait time management, route and re-route logistics, pricing/payout algorithm and definitely start with drivers/owners behind the wheel. NOT just jump to driverless. Removing the driver wouldn't even come next. You'd want to then let the remote operator, algorithm or whatever non-realtime system is used as back-up then get exercised while a human is behind the wheel. Once that is solid, with all the other experiential stuff and you have a very high confidence in successful rides (like 1000 to 1) vs rides which required a non-real-time intervention.....then the next step is removing the human driver.

Here's my FSD code milestones (NOTE: There are other separate milestones for the app, non-realtime interventions and vehicles logistics)

1. >X # of miles between interventions unlocks supervised FSD <-- We are currently here with 12.3.x
2. >Y % over 1B+ miles of completed, successful, no intervention rides unlocks supervised Robotaxi
3. <Z % over 2B+ miles of remote, non-realtime interventions needed unlocks unsupervised Robotaxi

 

[Hock1]

TSLA is up 9.5% over the last month

Forgetting the issue of "potential" manipulation, I believe the ramifications of BESS is starting to make inroads into the minds of analysts and money managers. Also, the 8/8 event could be "yuge". Purely a guess: I can see a joint venture, most likely Ford, for the "Model 2" or robotaxis. which may end up being the same, or nearly the same, vehicle.