Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

Breaking — Tesla Model S & X Refresh Production Test Run Is About To Start | CleanTechnica
For now, all we know is that the first few hundred drive units have been shipped from the Gigafactory, and our source indicated the S/X refresh was “imminent.” Because it’s a few hundred and not a few thousand units, though, it’s possible that this is just a test run and that it might still be months until Tesla announces the refresh. It’s hard to know how long any testing processes might take.

 

[KarenRei]

Breaking — Tesla Model S & X Refresh Production Test Run Is About To Start | CleanTechnica
For now, all we know is that the first few hundred drive units have been shipped from the Gigafactory, and our source indicated the S/X refresh was “imminent.” Because it’s a few hundred and not a few thousand units, though, it’s possible that this is just a test run and that it might still be months until Tesla announces the refresh. It’s hard to know how long any testing processes might take.

With how much this news has gotten out there, I have trouble believing they're not going to say a word for months - even if the first customer deliveries won't be for months. If I had to wager, I'd expect an announcement in the "relatively near" future, including stats and pricing - the former being awesome, but the latter being well higher than the current product line's pricing, so as to avoid killing off demand for current products (and potentially stimulate it from the people who've been putting off a purchase to see what the refresh is like).

Margins on the new variants will be monstrously high. If initial pricing is what I'm expecting (and what I think they need, to avoid killing demand for the current line), then initial margins on them may be in the 40-50% range. And they'll still collect a flood of deposits, because when you look at the benefits that just a drive unit change alone would provide, the new variants are going to be hugely desirable.

The question is, what to do with the freed-up Fremont space...

 

[schonelucht]

Such statements are always qualified with “barring a force majure”. Nothing is guaranteed. The statements do not contradict.

What was the "force majeure" that sank Q1?

 

[schonelucht]

Just some questions

1) is the restraining order already granted?
2) if not, is there any chance to get it in place before the demo day?
3) by filing the restraining order, Tesla explicitly laid out it plans for demo day. Unfortunately may encourage others to go and be 'unhelpful'. I am sure they weighted that option. Still.

 

[EVMeister]

What was the "force majeure" that sank Q1?

It was more of a horse manure event.

 

[mrdoubleb]

What was the "force majeure" that sank Q1?

Could you please help us remember what Tesla's guidance on Q1 has been over the past 6 months?

 

[KarenRei]

Could you please help us remember what Tesla's guidance on Q1 has been over the past 6 months?

Was initially "small profit, with difficulty" (not a direct quote), which was revised to "do not expect to return a profit on Q1" (also not a direct quote) partway through the quarter.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Was initially "small profit, with difficulty" (not a direct quote), which was revised to "do not expect to return a profit on Q1" (also not a direct quote) partway through the quarter.

I know you know, Karen. I was asking our resident Tesla pessimist.

PS: BTW, based on the numbers ran by the usual suspects on the quarterly financials thread, I do expect we'll have more than just a "small loss". I think the air ran out for S/X quicker than they've expected.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Context.

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

And from an operating-plant standpoint, from Q3 onwards, I really want to emphasize our goal is to be profitable and cash-flow positive for every quarter, going forward. Now obviously, if there's a big recession or there's a severe force majeure event that interrupts the supply chain, that's not always possible [...]​

And again, at the Q3 2018 Earnings call:

And I believe our aspirations I think it will be for all quarters going forward. I think we can actually be positive cash flow and profitable for all quarters going forward, leaving aside quarters where we may need to do a significant repayment, for example in Q1 next year. But I think even in Q1, I think we can be approximately flat in cash flow by end of quarter.

 

[hobbes]

Perhaps other EU members can comment if NoA is approved for release+use in the EU yet?

While homologation on for cars is done EU wide, surprisingly I can use NoA on my HW 2.5 FW 8.4 Model 3 at home in Germany (Blinker+Steering wheel confirmation needed), but it stopped working when entering Switzerland and didn‘t come back in France (others on European forums experienced the same). Currently on vacation on the Mediterranean .

 

[lklundin]

So Mark Smeagle openly calls Elon Fraud boy. Isn't this libel?

Elon Musk's defence in the pedo-tweet case argues that it is not.

 

[jerry33]

That's not true - I los count of the number of times with my old P85 that I forgot to close the flap and had to pull-over to get out and shut it

How was that possible when there is a big reminder on the display before you ever start moving? Or do EU cars not have that?

 

[Antares Nebula]

With how much this news has gotten out there, I have trouble believing they're not going to say a word for months - even if the first customer deliveries won't be for months. If I had to wager, I'd expect an announcement in the "relatively near" future, including stats and pricing - the former being awesome, but the latter being well higher than the current product line's pricing, so as to avoid killing off demand for current products (and potentially stimulate it from the people who've been putting off a purchase to see what the refresh is like).

Margins on the new variants will be monstrously high. If initial pricing is what I'm expecting (and what I think they need, to avoid killing demand for the current line), then initial margins on them may be in the 40-50% range. And they'll still collect a flood of deposits, because when you look at the benefits that just a drive unit change alone would provide, the new variants are going to be hugely desirable.

The question is, what to do with the freed-up Fremont space...

Besides Autopilot day, earnings report, SEC news, this will also be another major catalyst for the stock. If all these catalysts positively align for Tesla, we could see another 80 point up week. Unlikely, but not impossible.

 

[ruralectric]

OT (SpaceX Dragon 2 Capsule Destroyed):

I saw a brief comment quite a few pages ago, but not definitive. SpaceX did in fact suffer a major setback yesterday with the loss of the Dragon 2 capsule that recently visited the ISS, and was intended to be used for the upcoming in flight abort test.

Video:
Astronut099 on Twitter

Article:
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft suffers an anomaly during static fire testing at Cape Canaveral – NASASpaceFlight.com

 

[Drax7]

No he’s not. Not even a little bit. You’re the one being naive.

He owns properties for his family, for investment, for collateral, for tax write offs... He doesn’t own them to live in the lap of luxury. He’s hardly ever home. I’d bet money he spends more time in his car, and in his jet, and on couches of friends homes, and on the factory floor than all the time he’s spent in all his homes combined.

You might want to go dig up some historical facts about Elon. He’s lived like a pauper before and he’s not afraid of doing it again.

You are clueless about human nature, nobody is that selfless and altruistic.

He wants to save humanity , for the glory of it. A saving angel.

He is amazing , but keep it real .

 

[winfield100]

Let’s not forget that VW once thought about testing carbon monoxide on humans, after they’ve tested the poison on animals. These guys don’t deserve any benefit of the doubt.

WAY OT
as a personal data point of one, I thought there were malevolent spirits in my basement that caused great unease and a desire to flee.
It was the _cracked_ firebox of my gas furnace leaking Carbon Monoxide, and after replacement the malevolent spirits went elsewhere
(there was triple homicide next door in the late 1960's 20 feet away, so there could have been a lurking remnent of a conciousness)
(wheres my neural link, i need it really really soon)

 

[dgodfrey]

I want to like this so hard (I'm a new user with little posts so I can't do anything yet)

No problem, got you covered.

 

[jerry33]

OT (SpaceX Dragon 2 Capsule Destroyed):

I saw a brief comment quite a few pages ago, but not definitive. SpaceX did in fact suffer a major setback yesterday with the loss of the Dragon 2 capsule that recently visited the ISS, and was intended to be used for the upcoming in flight abort test.

Video:
Astronut099 on Twitter

Article:
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft suffers an anomaly during static fire testing at Cape Canaveral – NASASpaceFlight.com

That's why you have testing.

 

[Pezpunk]

You are clueless about human nature, nobody is that selfless and altruistic.

He wants to save humanity , for the glory of it. A saving angel.

He is amazing , but keep it real .

It’s very sad that conservatives can’t even imagine the possibility of altruism anymore.

 

[bdy0627]

azaz responding to @neroden ...

When I drove truck in Manhattan, I'd rev up real loud, put it in gear, and start letting the engine shake the truck as it started to crawl forward, then I'd push in the clutch to not hit the pedestrians just coming into my way, slam the squeaky brakes on keeping eye contact with the pedestrians, adjusting my smile to get the individualized responses from each pedestrian I think is right, only to swiftly come back to slowly letting off the clutch, straining the engine and once again letting the truck come forward a bit as I see the pedestrians see me and our eye contact shows that no one is in emergency. By then, the pedestrians start thinning out, and I slam the brakes on again, drifting up to a nice buffer space between me and the current set of pedestrians. Then, I repeat all of this from the beginning again, until I'm through.

Interpolate for autonomous EV car.


Uhhh, wait ........ that doesn't work like that.

Left turn? That's nothing! Try a RIGHT turn in Manhattan!

I like doing it from the third from right lane ... the cabs turning right from the second from the right lane love yelling at me "HEYYY! YOU AREN'T SUPPOSED TO TURN FROM ANY LANE BUT THE RIGHTMOST LANE!!!" and shake their fists at me (as I laugh at their hypocrisy).


By the way, years ago I was on the record as saying cars ought to be able to figure out how to drive safely with enough good hardware and programmers. I still believe that. Having been a truck driver in Manhattan and a frequent hill car driver, I know all that that entails. Perhaps it's my embracing of the complexity that makes me think it's possible; whenever I see anyone throw up their hands at "how complicated it all is", I just think I've found someone who can't handle the complexity. It's really simple once you're smart and experienced enough. You just have to get there.

Pedestrians might ignore timid quiet cars and just keep walking, but people don't like loud noise in their face. Couldn't autonomous cars use a really annoying noise to move pedestrians when the car has the right of way? Like honking but next level, only used when the car has the right of way but people won't let it through. Another option would be water spraying forward after a countdown and noise warning. There must be some creative effective ways through the issue. No one has spent much time on it because there hasn't been a compelling need to. Eventually, people would be trained to let cars through to avoid the unpleasantness they would face otherwise. That just can't be the reason FSD would fail.