Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[loquitur]

$TSLA down 1.8% AH due to $APPL missing earnings because they are so closely related

Technically, Apple beat consensus for both revenue and earnings for the past quarter. Further,
even though sales were technically down YOY for the quarter, they were higher using constant currency.
The "miss" is with the consensus of analyst estimates for the holiday quarter not matching loose guidance
provided by Apple. As with Tesla, it's always about expectations for future, not past, EPS.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

For a good laugh...

Charlie Munger says Elon Musk is outclassed by the head of China’s BYD—poised to overtake Tesla in global sales of fully electric vehicles

"The guy at BYD is better at actually making things than Elon is," said Warren Buffett's right-hand man.

finance.yahoo.com

Sounds like Munger is just a bit bitter with his comments that BYD CEO is superior than Elon. Just move along Charlie.

 

[Mengy]

Sounds like Munger is just a bit bitter with his comments that BYD CEO is superior than Elon. Just move along Charlie.

Warren and Charlie like typical old fashioned CEO's who dress and play the part "properly". Elon is too unique and uncommon for them to take seriously, it's always been their biggest issue with Elon's businesses as investments.

I have a hunch once Warren and Charlie either retire or pass on, the younger people who take over Berkshire will invest into Tesla right quickly. Then again maybe not, who cares, it's their loss!

 

[skybluecgreen]

For a good laugh...

Charlie Munger says Elon Musk is outclassed by the head of China’s BYD—poised to overtake Tesla in global sales of fully electric vehicles

"The guy at BYD is better at actually making things than Elon is," said Warren Buffett's right-hand man.

finance.yahoo.com

View attachment 987411

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Sounds like Munger is just a bit bitter with his comments that BYD CEO is superior than Elon. Just move along Charlie.

BYD chose to use LFP batteries from the start and Tesla now uses significant amounts of them. Do we know if the next gen vehicle plans on using LFP or 4680s? If we don't know, what are some guesses? Also, could Tesla make LFP 4680's?

 

[Doit]

For a good laugh...

Charlie Munger says Elon Musk is outclassed by the head of China’s BYD—poised to overtake Tesla in global sales of fully electric vehicles

"The guy at BYD is better at actually making things than Elon is," said Warren Buffett's right-hand man.

finance.yahoo.com

View attachment 987411

View attachment 987412

Sounds like Munger is just a bit bitter with his comments that BYD CEO is superior than Elon. Just move along Charlie.

I admire a guy who is only two months shy of being a centenarian and yet is still able talking sugar and making it believable to so many people. My aspiration goal is lucid enough to order tendies in drive-thru when I'm 100.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Today’s auto manufacturing ~ BYD vs Tesla or Tesla vs BYD. I do not hear anyone else in the vegetable soup of auto manufacturers.

There will be three manufacturers that fall out and or become marginally viable. Who will fail or forfeit their market share. Who is poised to scarf up those losses. Those are a significant impact on the field. Legacy has not made that a key target of opportunity. Therefore, do they not only lose their market share and the potential for growth? How many people are dropping out of the driving/ownership pool? With a larger Robotaxi pool, how important is ownership? My wife and I have bought eighteen cars since forming our team. Two days ago she echoed the car leasing option from our daughter. When traveling we us Uber.

A couple of years back two pictures of the same street that were bantered about ~ one with horses; the other later in life reflected at the location all automobiles. At this point in time, the dynamics are not that simple. It’s like sexing chicks ~ exhaust pipe or no exhaust pipe.

Truth also is no longer what humans strive for ~ in anything.

Legacy auto manufacturers that loose are technically challenged and cannot read the crowd.

Cheers

 

[MC3OZ]

BYD chose to use LFP batteries from the start and Tesla now uses significant amounts of them. Do we know if the next gen vehicle plans on using LFP or 4680s? If we don't know, what are some guesses? Also, could Tesla make LFP 4680's?

Tesla has stated that the compact next gen vehicle (Robotaxi) is "chemistry agnostic" IMO that means it could be LFP, or even sodium.

LFP cells exist in cylindrical format (18650 and/or 2170) so I can't see why it would not be possible for Tesla to make LFP 4680s.

There are a few reasons why Tesla might want to make LFP 4680s.

1. Cylindrical cells are typically the cheapest form of cell manufacture.
2. 4680 LFP cells could be used in structural packs.

LFP also works well in other form factors, I did see something about Tesla licencing some CATL technology, but I am sceptical about that story. A joint venture between CATL and Tesla to make cells North America is believable.

What has changed recently is key LFP patents expired (from memory) around April 2022 prior to that anyone manufacturing LFP outside China had to have to pay large licencing fees. The issue of whether or not China was covered by the LFP patents was avoided by both parties.

 

[mongo]

BYD chose to use LFP batteries from the start and Tesla now uses significant amounts of them. Do we know if the next gen vehicle plans on using LFP or 4680s? If we don't know, what are some guesses? Also, could Tesla make LFP 4680's?

Tesla didn't have a choice as regards LFP in the US since they were patent locked.
LFP can be 4680, but prismatic are safe enough.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433823519146577920

Battery day gave a chemistry guideline:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313855469719560192

 

[GhostSkater]

Tesla didn't have a choice as regards LFP in the US since they were patent locked.
LFP can be 4680, but prismatic are safe enough.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433823519146577920

Battery day gave a chemistry guideline:
View attachment 987476

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313855469719560192

Funny when the medium range for Tesla is the longest range for some others

 

[skybluecgreen]

Tesla didn't have a choice as regards LFP in the US since they were patent locked.
LFP can be 4680, but prismatic are safe enough.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433823519146577920

Battery day gave a chemistry guideline:
View attachment 987476

https://twitter.com/x/status/1313855469719560192

Thanks for the refresher. The battery day slide does suggest the next gen vehicle will use LFP.

With that vehicle likely to outsell all the other Tesla vehicles combined and the seeming unlimited demand for LFP megapacks, should not Tesla consider making their own LFPs or at least partnering with a LFP maker for US production? Especially if the IRA incentives remain intact following next year's election.

 

[MC3OZ]

Thanks for the refresher. The battery day slide does suggest the next gen vehicle will use LFP.

With that vehicle likely to outsell all the other Tesla vehicles combined and the seeming unlimited demand for LFP megapacks, should not Tesla consider making their own LFPs or at least partnering with a LFP maker for US production? Especially if the IRA incentives remain intact following next year's election.

Master Plan 3 is an update on battery day and there are 2 other vehicle types worth noting:-

• Commercial / Passenger vans - High Nickel
• Semi Light - LFP

MP3 isn't an 100% guarantee that Tesla will make these vehicle types with these battery types, but I think they will.

What is interesting is Tesla predicts !M sales per year of Semi Light and 2M sales per year of the long range High Nickel Semi heavy. (Global sales all brands)

I always expected the shorter range Semi to be LFP, but I am surprised that is expected to sell in lower volumes.

The Sparks factory upgrade could be for up to 500 GWh, IMO that is the most likely location for 4680 LFP.

I also expect 4680 production at Mexico might be delayed with cells initially coming from Austin or Sparks.

4680 LFP at Sparks could go into the Semi Light, (Megapacks?), and be shipped to Fremont, Austin and Mexico as needed.

And/or Tesla will partner a battery maker like CATL on North American LFP production.

 

[jamaatta]

Nickel-based- and LFP-batteries are SO last season - I'm eagerly waiting for LFMP-batteries!

 

[NicoV]

IIRC everything for Europe comes from Giga Berlin or Shanghai, except for S/X from Fremont which don´t contribute much to revenue though. @Troy definitely knows more, maybe he can chime in.. S/X for Asia goes east from the US west coast, so is not affected.

IIRC, S/X for EU is transported by rail to the East Coast before shipping over the Atlantic ocean. So no impact there too.

 

[Artful Dodger]

IIRC everything for Europe comes from Giga Berlin or Shanghai, except for S/X from Fremont

True that! And even with the S/X there was a period of time when shipping was done by rail from Fremont to a U.S. East Coast port, and from there on to Zeebrugge. So Panama is an expensive option that Tesla no longer depends upon for delivering finished cars.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

For a good laugh...

"charlie-munger-says-elon-musk..."

Remind me... is that the same Charlie Munger who sold off $1B worth of BYD stock in January? Or about half of Berky's holding in the Chinese automaker? That kind of 'confidence' in his wunderkind?

• Berkshire Hathaway sells 1.1 mln H-shares in China's BYD | REUTERS.com (Jan 09, 2023)

Or a month after he sold, when he said this:

• Charlie Munger on BYD versus Tesla: This carmaker is so ahead of Tesla in China, it's ridiculous | CNBC.com (Feb 15, 2023)

Lol, even at 99 yrs of age, Charlie still likes to talk his book. Wonder how much more BYD they've sold since then?

Cheers!

 

[UkNorthampton]

Sorry if already posted..

Tesla deliveries to Turkey were at a lower rate in October, could be a variety of reasons. My guess is there's greater need in other markets supplied from Berlin. So just a pause.

Turkish auto sales see over 55% increase to maintain record streak

Car sales in Türkiye maintained their record trend in October despite tightening financing conditions, industry data showed on Thursday, adding to the...

www.dailysabah.com

Overall, car sales up 74% (presumably year on year). EV sales from very low (before Tesla and Togg came to market) to 12% in October, just under 10,000 for the month. EV percentage may have been higher in previous months, can't remember.

Demand soared as depreciation in the Turkish lira, and soaring prices prompted consumers to continue to opt for cars they see as a tool to safeguard themselves from high inflation, which rose to 61.5% in the 12 months to September.

500 tesla model y from Berlin in October, so 10,700 since start of deliveries in mid May 2023. So 5.5 months, could guess that 20,000 a year might be possible, more if 3, S or X were available.

Negatives include initial demand might be partly satisfied.

Positives include bums on seats leading to further orders, expanding Berlin production, expanding Turkish EV charger network (needed for homegrown EV brand Togg, Togg & Tesla both use CCS2) and continued inflation, so incentive to turn cash/savings into hard assets.

Some 48,883 EVs have been sold from January through October of this year, the ODMD data showed, marking a ninefold increase from a year ago.

Sales in October alone jumped tenfold to 9,832, lifting the EV share in the overall market to 11.9%.

Togg, the manufacturer of Türkiye’s first electric car, outpaced Tesla as it delivered some 3,567 units of its C-segment SUV T10X in October. This figure brings its deliveries since late April to 9,171 units.

Tesla sold 500 units of its Model Y last month. The carmaker has delivered some 10,700 units so far this year.

 

[UkNorthampton]

In case this has an impact on TSLA, with the current emphasis on Artificial Intelligence. Type of AI might be truthful science, physics, humanoid robot or Large language Model/ChatGPT-like as Tesla were advertising for LLM specialists as some point (join one Musk company & opportunity to work at others eg SpaceX materials experts).

Artificial Intelligence

This is all pretty amazing: https://www.zdnet.com/article/microsoft-unveils-extensions-to-fabric-azure-for-healthcare-ai/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/microsoft-has-over-a-million-paying-github-copilot-users-ceo-nadella/

teslamotorsclub.com

Elon Musk @elonmusk

Tomorrow, @xAI will release its first AI to a select group.

In some important respects, it is the best that currently exists.

 

[H Mak]

Elon Musk is all over British newspapers and TV this morning on AI. To summarise, it's the end of the world as we know it

 

[JupiterMan]

View attachment 987504

Elon Musk is all over British newspapers and TV this morning on AI. To summarise, it's the end of the world as we know it

I'm no fan of Rishi, but I actually really enjoyed the interview between him and Musk.

Its an eye opening technological development that will change so much in our lives and those of our kids, and trying to comprehend these changes relative to how we live today is sometimes challenging.

I thought Musk came across very positively and pro-human, and thought naively that it would receive positive press today.... but as always, the media in UK at least is already trying to spin this in a bad way, but in essence, Musk is just the messenger here.

Governments and citizens need to plan for this change. Its happening irrespective of Rishi and Musk.

Part of my plan to help ease this transition (and in particular to help my young kids) is by having high financial exposure to those companies that will benefit from this transition to an AI future, including of course TSLA.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I'm no fan of Rishi, but I actually really enjoyed the interview between him and Musk.

Its an eye opening technological development that will change so much in our lives and those of our kids, and trying to comprehend these changes relative to how we live today is sometimes challenging.

I thought Musk came across very positively and pro-human, and thought naively that it would receive positive press today.... but as always, the media in UK at least is already trying to spin this in a bad way, but in essence, Musk is just the messenger here.

Governments and citizens need to plan for this change. Its happening irrespective of Rishi and Musk.

Part of my plan to help ease this transition (and in particular to help my young kids) is by having high financial exposure to those companies that will benefit from this transition to an AI future, including of course TSLA.

Agree. For the future, we could have a variety of scenarios. Utopia/abundance or...

It's only prudent to imagine a future that is much like the past, with a few people having rights over the source of wealth (was: feudal, Standard Oil, theocracy, capital, land - future: data, energy, robotics, space) and many more people without wealth, choice and contentment. I think Tesla shareholders MIGHT be generally more benign than some of the Robber Barons.

In any case, I've got family stories of rags to riches to rags.. perhaps to riches in the future. I'd want to secure this through some kind of multi-generational financial trust though. Otherwise, the opportunity for my descendants to go from rags to riches may be very rare. Inherited wealth doesn't mean contentment, but it might mean not going hungry, having decent housing & medical care.

Pre and post AI/robots will (in my opinion) be so completely different, that even those who have amazing imaginations, who read Iain M Banks, Asimov and a lot more Science Fiction will still be amazed.

A unique point in history.

Edit: added "space" to future sources of wealth & "land" to old