Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EQC_]

Today I was rereading my copy of the August 12, 1998 edition of the New York Times. An article reports that a federal appeals court voided a New York State requirement that 2% of vehicles sold in 1998 must be powered by electricity. The court sustained a requirement that 10% of vehicles sold in 2003 must be electric. Quote: "The ruling pleased automobile industry officials, who said it bought them time to develop electric cars that would be popular."

(My own speculation: Was it someone at Toyota who said that? Maybe it was GM.)

This is one of those posts that I have to resist my urge to give it a big thumbs down. Not because of what the poster wrote...but because the facts of reality displease me so. These companies have been kicking the can down the road doing just about nothing for 25 years now, while making promises of "just a few more years" every time they are asked...

 

[RichardL]

Not towing related, but a simple question.

For fun when driving along I5 between LA and the Bay Area I count the southbound Tesla transporters. Yesterday I saw 28 in a 2.5 hr morning stretch.

Which leads to my question - why do I not see a similar number of empty transporters heading north. Obviously I am going in the same direction, but I should pass a few of them. But I see none - where do they all go? Anybody know how they route after drop off?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Not to take anything away from the Cyberbeast, which demonstrated incredible power and pulling force in the tractor pull demo (which I thought was great), but tires are a huge component of tractive force. Especially on a loose dirt surface such as the tractor pull strip. As far as I could tell, the Cybertruck was the only truck equipped with all terrain tires. Anyone who drives regularly in snowy/icy conditions knows exactly how big a factor tires suited to the driving conditions can make.

 

[Krugerrand]

But I see none - where do they all go? Anybody know how they route after drop off?

Excellent question! I can only say I know they don’t currently route through Swedish ports. Otherwise ‍.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not to take anything away from the Cyberbeast, which demonstrated incredible power and pulling force in the tractor pull demo (which I thought was great), but tires are a huge component of tractive force. Especially on a loose dirt surface such as the tractor pull strip. As far as I could tell, the Cybertruck was the only truck equipped with all terrain tires. Anyone who drives regularly in snowy/icy conditions knows exactly how big a factor tires suited to the driving conditions can make.

You’re first on my zombie list, which is quite a feat given who currently was #1 by a mile.

 

[SmokyPeat]

You’re first on my zombie list, which is quite a feat given who currently was #1 by a mile.

I'm flattered, really, but I have zero interest in ever venturing to your mountain hideaway, zombified or otherwise.

 

[MP3Mike]

Which leads to my question - why do I not see a similar number of empty transporters heading north. Obviously I am going in the same direction, but I should pass a few of them. But I see none - where do they all go? Anybody know how they route after drop off?

Running them empty would be a complete waste. They probably transport vehicles on their trip to pickup more new Teslas. (That could be bringing trade-in vehicles to a central place, or even moving vehicles around for dealers.)

 

[tracksyde]

Not towing related, but a simple question.

For fun when driving along I5 between LA and the Bay Area I count the southbound Tesla transporters. Yesterday I saw 28 in a 2.5 hr morning stretch.

Which leads to my question - why do I not see a similar number of empty transporters heading north. Obviously I am going in the same direction, but I should pass a few of them. But I see none - where do they all go? Anybody know how they route after drop off?

Hey, I do that stretch a few times a year and over Thanksgiving, I counted about 25-26 heading South (this was Wednesday before TDay in the morning). But I have also wondered the same thing.

However, this time I on my way home noticed a few car carriers were carrying Jeeps. The car carriers were red and the semis were white, just like the Tesla ones. It wasnt many, maybe 3 or 4, but heading home down South, I dont pay as much attention.

I cant see from the opposite side of the freeway if they were in fact Tesla owned car carriers/semis (from the stickers on the semi), but I had always thought that was the perfect opportunity for Tesla Trucking to offer some "discounted" transport rates to the manufacturers that offload in Long Beach for deliveries in Northern California.

 

[cliff harris]

So are we headed to 249.99 this week?

Me thinks the underlying upward pressure is due to strong anticipated Q4 deliveries (and >1.8M for '23)? Especially at a time with low demand (on everything, not just EVs). This stark contrast will eventually get out. Imagine the family talks at X-mas!

We might be on the verge of going higher, 260, 270 and beyond. The cybertruck has been launched, without further delay, so thats one checkbox. The reviews from the big news outlets seem pretty good, so thats a second checkbox. What wall st will worry about is real deliveries to real people.
A few hours ago people on X started talking about those with 'founders' edition cybertruck orders being asked to pay up and take delivery. Thats a very good sign.
Once we see transporters with multiple cybertrucks heading out from Texas more than once a day, then I expect a stock market reaction. So far its just 3 or 4 a day, likely to showrooms. Make it 20 a day and then I'll stare meaningfully at the chart .

 

[uscbucsfan]

We might be on the verge of going higher, 260, 270 and beyond. The cybertruck has been launched, without further delay, so thats one checkbox. The reviews from the big news outlets seem pretty good, so thats a second checkbox. What wall st will worry about is real deliveries to real people.
A few hours ago people on X started talking about those with 'founders' edition cybertruck orders being asked to pay up and take delivery. Thats a very good sign.
Once we see transporters with multiple cybertrucks heading out from Texas more than once a day, then I expect a stock market reaction. So far its just 3 or 4 a day, likely to showrooms. Make it 20 a day and then I'll stare meaningfully at the chart .

I don't think we'll see real (not the founders versions who are still employees, influencers, celebs, etc.) deliveries of the trims until 2024 and until there's volume, I don't know that the CT will have too much of an impact on the stock.

When we see the configurator for regular day 1 deliveries open, then I'll be excited.

 

[2daMoon]

Once we see transporters with multiple cybertrucks heading out from Texas more than once a day, then I expect a stock market reaction. So far its just 3 or 4 a day, likely to showrooms. Make it 20 a day and then I'll stare meaningfully at the chart .

Looking forward to how many other manufacturer's annual electric truck production (deliveries too?) might be eclipsed by CT in December alone. I'm pretty sure we can beat Hummer.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Looking forward to how many other manufacturer's annual electric truck production (deliveries too?) might be eclipsed by CT in December alone. I'm pretty sure we can beat Hummer.

And the Silverado.

Really only behind Rivian and Ford.

 

[ripper88]

Tesla begins inviting customers to order $120K 'Foundation Series' Cybertrucks [Update]

Tesla kicked off deliveries of the Cybertruck last week at Giga Texas, inviting a select few to participate in the Delivery Event and take possession of their Foundation Series Cybertrucks. Now the company is inviting […]

driveteslacanada.ca

According to the emails that were sent and shared by several customers on social media, Tesla is picking some “early reservation holders” in California and Texas to place their orders. If you are lucky enough to get the email, titled ‘Your Foundation Series Cybertruck is Ready to Order,” be prepared to pay big money for the opportunity to own one of the first Cybertrucks.

Since the delivery event last week a few details have been uncovered in the source code of Tesla’s website, suggesting the Foundation Series was going to include more than just the truck itself, and today’s emails have confirmed it. When you order a Foundation Series you also get all available accessories, including these premium accessories:

• Laser-Etched Badging
• Full Self-Driving
• Lifetime Premium Connectivity
• Universal Wall Connector
• Powershare Mobile Connector
• Powershare Home Backup

The price? $119,990, plus a $1,995 Destination Fee, a $250 Order Fee, but you do get a $100 credit for your original reservation. This is $20,000 more than the estimated price of $99,990 for the Cyberbeast (tri-motor) on Tesla’s website, although the email doesn’t specify these are the tri-motor version.

 

[AndrewZ]

Surely that Foundation Series is dual motor, otherwise just a regular Cyberbeast + FSD + accessories is probably closing in on $120k even without any special Foundation Series stuff

 

[GrandEnigma]

Not towing related, but a simple question.

For fun when driving along I5 between LA and the Bay Area I count the southbound Tesla transporters. Yesterday I saw 28 in a 2.5 hr morning stretch.

Which leads to my question - why do I not see a similar number of empty transporters heading north. Obviously I am going in the same direction, but I should pass a few of them. But I see none - where do they all go? Anybody know how they route after drop off?

Might be a different story if Tesla owns the carriers, but those things arent making money if they are driving around empty. They have likely booked a route that has them occupied out and back.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Surely that Foundation Series is dual motor, otherwise just a regular Cyberbeast + FSD + accessories is probably closing in on $120k even without any special Foundation Series stuff

You would have to wait longer and it doesn't get the special badging. The benefit of these foundation series is that they are delivering before the regular vehicles, seemingly before the end of the year.

 

[Usain]

Views (in millions) of the Cybertruck reviews keep growing:

Date	Top Gear	Hagerty	Marques Brownlee
12/3/2023	2.0	2.8	9.7
12/4/2023	2.4	3.3	12.0
12/5/2023	2.8	3.7	14.0
12/6/2023	3.1	4.0	15.0

Growth is slowing but still moving higher and higher. Marques' video only needs a couple million more to reach his all time top 5.

Everybody wants the 411 on the CT.

 

[AndrewZ]

You would have to wait longer and it doesn't get the special badging. The benefit of these foundation series is that they are delivering before the regular vehicles, seemingly before the end of the year.

I'd think the price premium for all of this + early delivery on a Cyberbeast would be a lot more than $20k, but if not that seems like a pretty good deal

 

[uscbucsfan]

I'd think the price premium for all of this + early delivery on a Cyberbeast would be a lot more than $20k, but if not that seems like a pretty good deal

That's what people are saying it is who have been invited to configure it. There are maybe 3 different people on X posting the same thing.

 

[Knightshade]

We might be on the verge of going higher, 260, 270 and beyond. The cybertruck has been launched, without further delay, so thats one checkbox. The reviews from the big news outlets seem pretty good, so thats a second checkbox. What wall st will worry about is real deliveries to real people.
A few hours ago people on X started talking about those with 'founders' edition cybertruck orders being asked to pay up and take delivery. Thats a very good sign.
Once we see transporters with multiple cybertrucks heading out from Texas more than once a day, then I expect a stock market reaction. So far its just 3 or 4 a day, likely to showrooms. Make it 20 a day and then I'll stare meaningfully at the chart .

Cybertruck will not be material to Tesla’s financials in 2024