Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

My guess:
It's not old fashioned ethernet when carried on the fiber. Yes "ethernet" packets but the packets could be transported along the fiber ring by a token ring type protocol from node to node. No CSMA/CD along the ring. That's how we did it in 1985.

I wonder if might be similar to FDDI (and later CDDI) rings, which is deterministic by virtue of being a token-based network (they mention Etherloop uses TDMA), and allowing for loops in order to provide redundancy, but their implementation of Etherloop[1] uses ethernet-style packet frames, allowing for ease of existing devices to digest the packet payload?

[1] Interestingly "Etherloop" was DSL'ish last-mile data delivery technology...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Grabbed 25 shairs. It just keeps bouncing along this mark, the whole month. It doesn't comprehend Cybertruck potential. One might think Tesla stopped growing.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Grabbed 25 shairs. It just keeps bouncing along this mark, the whole month. It doesn't comprehend Cybertruck potential. One might think Tesla stopped growing.

View attachment 998655

Everything not called Optimus, Robotaxi and FSD is already priced in.

 

[Krugerrand]

Maybe specific to your bubble - I would assume early retirees with extra cash from the stock market ? Took me six months to get a decent tech job after 25 years of experience, and took a personal connection to get the attention. The job
Market in my industry has significantly changed. Instead of head hunters knocking on my door, most applications disappeared into a black hole, some got a template decline two months later. Also LinkedIn has turned into more of a Facebook than being effective for getting responses for outreach.

Hospitality, service, construction and other blue collar - jobs of that ilk, major shortages of bodies.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

The bigger canary to me is the number of people I see getting a second job and the number of my wife's friends that were home with their kids that are strongly considering going back to work or already have. That is not the sign of strength in a market and short term inflation is 100% to blame.

How come I'm working two jobs and my wife is still staying home with the kids?

 

[kengchang]

14.8K

https://twitter.com/x/status/1734449383905669473

The more interesting the post the more reason there is to screen shot it and/or copy the text into a text only quote or others have no idea what you are posting about.

Server issues, deleted posts, etcetera...

Usually he's pretty good about it but it was deleted and revised higher to 15.4K

 

[navguy12]

CNBC reported:

"Shelter prices, which make up about one-third of the CPI weighting, increased 0.4% on the month and were up 6.5% on a 12-month basis. However, the annual rate has showed a steady decline since peaking in early 2023."​

Ironic when the FED's high interest rate policy is CAUSING the remaining high inflation in over 30% of the U.S. economy.

'Higher, Longer' wot? Jolly Jokers...

Of course, dropping gasoline prices are having an effect; even up here the price has dropped to around $1.35 a litre.

 

[Usain]

If one is concerned about the masses switching to EVs this is not a good sign. 14 million or so buyers are happy buying ICEs.

The F150 Lightning product is lacking too, being warmed over F150 ICE truck with batteries between the frame.

The one thing that the F150 Lighting really had going for it was two-way power. You don't need to carry a generator to the job site and you can use it as a battery backup for your home. Unfortunately, the home backup feature doesn't work very well, if at all.

I think the main reason Ford is cutting back is because they just lose too much money on each vehicle. It has little to do with soft demand unless Ford means that demand is soft at a really high price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Everything not called Optimus, Robotaxi and FSD is already priced in.

Mispriced in, you mean? Like a piddling 10M cars/year by 2050? (Bearenstain Bears / Scaramouche) Tesla will likely be doing that volume before 2030 (that's only 33% CAGR).

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the main reason Ford is cutting back is because they just lose too much money on each vehicle. It has little to do with soft demand unless Ford means that demand is soft at a really high price.

I think it's more than a little coincidence that Ford cut F-150e production by 80K (1,600/wk * 50 wks) just a few days after Cybertruck begins deliveries... with many Auto analysts predicting North of 80K CTs to be produced in 2024. Obviously, Ford expects CT to eat E-150 sales by a 1:1 ration next year.

Begs the question: if Tesla can get the RWD Cybertruck to the Market in 2025, will Ford sell ANY Lightning going forward? Ford can not cut prices enough to make up for an abundant supply of a superior product.

 

[wtlloyd]

How come I'm working two jobs and my wife is still staying home with the kids?

Sorry, surfing the 'net and chortling over hyper-bull posts is not really a job.
Sad to break the news here to all and sundry.

 

[Usain]

I think it's more than a little coincidence that Ford cut F-150e production by 80K (1,600/wk * 50 wks) just a few days after Cybertruck begins deliveries... with many Auto analysts predicting North of 80K CTs to be produced in 2024. Obviously, Ford expects CT to eat E-150 sales by a 1:1 ration next year.

Begs the question: if Tesla can get the RWD Cybertruck to the Market in 2025, will Ford sell ANY Lightning going forward? Ford can not cut prices enough to make up for an abundant supply of a superior product.

I don't think Cybertruck would cut into F-150 Lightning sales in 2024 as long as Ford could keep the price starting around 50K, which is a price Cybertruck won't need to match next year. But Ford loses way too much money at 50K. The battery packs are just too large and expensive.

I think in 2025, the Cybertruck will start to eat into all pickup truck sales, ICE or EV. If Tesla can crank out thousands of the RWD version for 60K each, they will sell like hotcakes. After the $7500 rebate, it's well below the 59K average price for a new pickup.

 

[wipster]

<snip>
On another note, glad to see you back posting here more often!

@The Accountant I second this emotion, glad to see a voice of reason posting again!

 

[dhanson865]

Everything not called Optimus, Robotaxi and FSD is already priced in.

I'd say Cybertruck at 125,000 a year is priced in, actually hitting 250,000 a year or higher in the short term (before Dec 2024) and/or a provable obvious ramp towards a higher number above 250,000 (in any year) hasn't been priced in yet.

 

[wipster]

I don't think Cybertruck would cut into F-150 Lightning sales in 2024 as long as Ford could keep the price starting around 50K, which is a price Cybertruck won't need to match next year. But Ford loses way too much money at 50K. The battery packs are just too large and expensive.

I think in 2025, the Cybertruck will start to eat into all pickup truck sales, ICE or EV. If Tesla can crank out thousands of the RWD version for 60K each, they will sell like hotcakes. After the $7500 rebate, it's well below the 59K average price for a new pickup.

Indeed, fully agree. One example, a friend's brother just bought a new Silverado and returned it a month later because of tough shifting and tailgate defects. His initial cost: $94,000. Perfect candidate for a CyberTruck. Just the amount not spent on fuel would be enough for a monthly payment.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I'd say Cybertruck at 125,000 a year is priced in, actually hitting 250,000 a year or higher in the short term (before Dec 2024) and/or a provable obvious ramp towards a higher number above 250,000 (in any year) hasn't been priced in yet.

Unless things change drastically, I don't think even 125k next year is possible. Elon already said the 125k is the production limit next year, but if you look at the first 1,000, they have an estimated delivery window from now to March 2024.

 

[2daMoon]

Begs the question: if Tesla can get the RWD Cybertruck to the Market in 2025, will Ford sell ANY Lightning going forward? Ford can not cut prices enough to make up for an abundant supply of a superior product.

Keep in mind that CT sales are spoken for, for the foreseeable future. It will be at least five years or more before Tesla runs out of current reservation holders, plus any who put in a reservation going forward.

There could be a consistent year or longer wait for CT delivery once existing reservations are filled if fresh reservations come in at only 10% the rate of those placed since the reveal.

There should be ample, "I don't want to buy CT because..." buyers in the market to absorb electric pickups from other OEMs. If for no other reason than they want/need an electric truck NOW and cannot get a CT for several years.

Cybertruck sales will NOT be cutting into ICE or BEV pickup sales for at least another five years. That die is cast, so the legacy OEMs have a window of opportunity to get their foot in the door before it slams shut. (mixing architectural metaphors is a specialty of mine)

 

[Opus BC fan]

Today was the last day of the window I had for selling some shares this year
I had hoped in vain for a post-delivery event small bump.

On a cost basis, it was a good sale. Most of the proceeds will do good things

I just hate selling for far less than the true value and rewarding pirates.

On a positive note, right after the share sale, I had a knock on my door.
A neighbor wanted to talk with me about the Model Y he was going to order later today and I gave him a referral code

 

[Usain]

Keep in mind that CT sales are spoken for, for the foreseeable future. It will be at least five years or more before Tesla runs out of current reservation holders, plus any who put in a reservation going forward.

There could be a consistent year or longer wait CT delivery once existing reservations are filled if fresh reservations come in at only 10% the rate of those placed since the reveal.

There should be ample, "I don't want to buy CT because..." buyers in the market to absorb electric pickups from other OEMs. If for no other reason than they want/need an electric truck NOW and cannot get a CT for several years.

Cybertruck sales will NOT be cutting into ICE or BEV pickup sales for at least another five years. That die is cast, so the legacy OEMs have a window of opportunity to get their foot in the door before it slams shut.

I think the Tesla web site is probably correct. If you order a Cybertruck AWD or Beast right now you will get it delivered in 2025. No previous reservation needed. You will only be in line behind reservation holders willing and able to buy an $80,000 car. That line is relatively short.

 

[growler23]

Keep in mind that CT sales are spoken for, for the foreseeable future. It will be at least five years or more before Tesla runs out of current reservation holders, plus any who put in a reservation going forward.

There could be a consistent year or longer wait for CT delivery once existing reservations are filled if fresh reservations come in at only 10% the rate of those placed since the reveal.

There should be ample, "I don't want to buy CT because..." buyers in the market to absorb electric pickups from other OEMs. If for no other reason than they want/need an electric truck NOW and cannot get a CT for several years.

Cybertruck sales will NOT be cutting into ICE or BEV pickup sales for at least another five years. That die is cast, so the legacy OEMs have a window of opportunity to get their foot in the door before it slams shut. (mixing architectural metaphors is a specialty of mine)

Agreed - in their expected modest numbers, they won't cut significantly into ICE sales numbers, but the Cybertrucks are sending an unmistakable message to Ford, GM, Ram, Toyota...

"We are coming for your one remaining profit center".

Hope some board rooms out there are listening.

BTW, while curves are lacking in the CT, here is the one curve that truly matters. Nonlinear never looked so good!