Out of the guesstimate of ~2 million current reservation holders, what percentage do you consider likely to take delivery before 2025 brings the single motor version?
I seem to recall a poll indicated that the lion's share of respondents reserved the 2 motor, and the single and triple were the outliers above and below that. So, let's call it 25% Single motor, 50% Dual motor, and 25% Tri motor.
Take the single motor count out for now. That leaves 1.5 million reservations for models that can be delivered in 2024.
Would 25% of that total taking delivery of a 2 or 3 motor CT seem a good working number to use? That is 375,000 CTs.
Maybe, just maybe, they deliver 80K in 2024, and 175K in 2025, ramping to an annual output of 250K at the end of 2025. Optimistic, but let's use it.
There would still be almost 120K of existing reservation holders in queue at the end of 2025, based on only a 25% take rate of 75% of existing reservations.
Now, add to that "short line" every CT reservation that has been made since the delivery event.
Also factor in how the current single motor reservations will begin deliveries in 2025 (but let's not even add those 125K CTs into the calculations)
Explain how someone ordering now will take delivery at any time in 2025, or even 2026, even when using a pessimistic fill rate on reservations and an optimistic production ramp.