Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Perhaps, but once FSD is truly ready people will be begging them to borrow money.

If Tesla truly has a million-large working robotaxi fleet by 2020 and is 3 years ahead (at least) of everyone else, the company is worth at least $250 billion.

I mean, some people think Uber is worth $150 billion...

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Disagree. Most Uber/Lyft cars are subpar and uncomfortable. Drivers often questionable.

WRONG. Might even be able to charge more. Just show up at first in the car to a friend and show them that you are not touching the steering wheel. The news will spread like WILDFIRE. You will get children, single women that deem it to dangerous to get in a car and trust a stranger etc. Tesla owners are already thinking of buying another car just as an investment BEFORE the autopilot explosion in demand AND PRICE.

 

[capster]

Ok I just got a break and managed to read through several pages.
Couple questions....anything on S/X refresh?
Any link to watch the demo drives?

Any idea why the SP is not $1000?

Evil exists?

 

[ZachF]

Overall, I liked the presentation.

The only thing I wish Elon expanded on more was how EVs, because of longer life, lower maintenance costs, and lower 'fuel' costs, are key to a cheap robotaxi fleet and ICE robotaxi fleets just cannot compete.

 

[Todd Burch]

this does not make sense to me. If they really can run robotaxi, why sell those cars? Don't tell me about sharing the profit with consumers, those cars will be gobble up by big investors with deep pockets, ordinary Joes won't be able to buy them.

The mission = changing the WORLD to sustainable transport. Can’t do that if you don’t sell to everyone.

 

[Cosmacelf]

To be fair, Google does already produce their own NN chips and boards.

Google does for their data centers, but does Waymo use a NN chip in their cars?

 

[Big Blue 1011]

The market cap of Tesla right now is around 50 Billion. The market cap of Uber is 100 BILLION. Uber is going to have an IPO VERY SOON. Tesla at around $1000 a share would have a market cap of between 150 and 200 BILLION. IMO Uber is worthless and Tesla should be close to $1,000 a share now.

I'll believe a $100 billion market cap for Uber when I see it. Lyft IPO'd less than a month ago with a market cap of $21 billion and went to $25 billion on the first day of trading. Now it's $17 billion. Let's see what it is after its first earnings report on May 7th.

If Uber can get a firm commitment for $100 billion from its underwriters, good for them. But the upside potential vs downside risk for a company that loses money on every transaction doesn't work for me. Maybe I'm missing something.

 

[Cloxxki]

Wouldn't vehicle autonomy be as desirable or even more so than, say, oral sex for many?

So and speaking of democracy, it's going to be a real challenge for governators to deny to consumers/constituents.

BTW, market insistence is one of the forces I hinted at some time ago as to why regulatory approval will come (much) sooner rather than later (assuming Tesla has the actuarial data which it will undoubtedly).

Have you noticed what governments can enforce or prohibit just by throwing around "national security", "patriotism", "anti-terrorism", "public health", "collusion", etc, etc?
If one of the superpowers decides to pull the plug on crypto currencies, that'd be it. Refined sugar (that beats anything for being desirable), anything. It just depends on what the stakes are for those who sponsor the politicians or promise them nice jobs after "serving".

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

No volume right now. Lot's of stuff today. Lot's of people are thinking really hard. Tomorrow should be an explosion. "YA RIGHT BOB You have been saying this for 5 years now" Sorry I was talking to myself there. Either I am CRAZY or the stupidity of Tesla shorts is fast approaching that of Trumpanzees. I said four years ago this stock would hit $1000 a share by 2020. I still am quite sure of that.

Would anyone like me to define a Trum

I agree that Uber is poop. But Uber has proven ride sharing revenue, Tesla doesn't. That's why it isn't being factored into SP right now

HAHAHAH UBER LOST FOUR BILLION last year. Tesla is profitable and has proven income. Do you like Trump to? Just kidding!!! Lyft is also nowhere near being profitable.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Overall, I liked the presentation.

The only thing I wish Elon expanded on more was how EVs, because of longer life, lower maintenance costs, and lower 'fuel' costs, are key to a cheap robotaxi fleet and ICE robotaxi fleets just cannot compete.

He did say that. He said a robotic fleet of EVs will always be able to outcompete a fleet of ICE cars due to fuel costs.

 

[mblakele]

To be fair, Google does already produce their own NN chips and boards.

Per today’s presentation it’s unsuitable for FSD because of the large batch size, which adds too much latency. I’m sure google could redesign for that, but it’d take some time. And money, but it’s google.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

My understanding is that they run the same NN on all the cameras.
To retrofit AP1 would require installing new wire harnesses, new mounting for HW3, cutting holes for B camera and front repeater, and likely the other changes for redundancy.

They do, and they train that network on those cameras. But anything that doesn’t mount that type of camera in one of those specific mount points isn’t going to work.

 

[Causalien]

The bad news is, I believe, version 2 of the NN chip will have to start from scratch as an expansion of Neurons will probably mean it will have to restart learning from a random state.

Good news is, they can just hook up version 2 to version 1 and have it train the kid. Maybe that's what the training simulator they are building is for.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think the wall street understand the value of robotaxi, just see the valuation of waymo.

I don't think they believe Elon though. I don't see anything today would change that.

Were you at the test drive?

 

[ZachF]

He did say that. He said a robotic fleet of EVs will always be able to outcompete a fleet of ICE cars due to fuel costs.

I know he did, I just wish he expanded on it more for those who don't already know that ICE robotaxis are uncompetitive from the start.

And it's more than fuel costs.... If your car lasts 2-4 times as long that's even bigger than fuel costs.

 

[Cloxxki]

Overall, I liked the presentation.

The only thing I wish Elon expanded on more was how EVs, because of longer life, lower maintenance costs, and lower 'fuel' costs, are key to a cheap robotaxi fleet and ICE robotaxi fleets just cannot compete.

Which actual car company investor still needs that party line? We are past that.

The risk is then when someone stick Level 5 on a car half the price while taking less of a cut on rides, to be sold in any way or form.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Google does for their data centers, but does Waymo use a NN chip in their cars?

Apparently not, no. Waymo's cars currently use an Intel tech-stack.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

25/75 revenue split IIRC

25-30% by Tesla

 

[Artful Dodger]

High volume red candles this morning. I can't honestly figure out why.

Maybe try to figure it out dishonestly? That's the shortie MO.

 

[anthonyj]

Would anyone like me to define a Trum

HAHAHAH UBER LOST FOUR BILLION last year. Tesla is profitable and has proven income. Do you like Trump to? Just kidding!!! Lyft is also nowhere near being profitable.

We’re talking ride sharing valuation. Tesla does not generate any revenue from ride sharing. The market is in a “show me” mode with Tesla, they do not believe any forward looking statements until they come to fruition. Therefore, Uber has a $100b ridesharing valuation and Tesla has $0. I don’t agree with that, but that is what the market is saying