Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Blue horseshoe]

I think I know where a lot of Tesla shareholders are flocking to.

View attachment 1010413

Tempting to pairs trade this.
Short nvda
Long tsla

 

[mongo]

Huh I must be missing something. Can you explain why the 2023 model doesn't qualify anymore but the 2024 model does? Is it not the same vehicle with the same components?

Apparently not. IRA rules required no Chinese components in 2024. Minerals are ok until 2025.

 

[scaesare]

hallucinating about robots at this point will not have a positive impact on stock valuation

It's robots hallucinating that would be even worse... and given what we've seen from LLM's that do, it's something worth thinking about...

 

[MP3Mike]

2023 Model Y LR no longer qualify for the $7,500 credit.

Are you sure about that? I know the 2023 Model Y RWD no longer qualifies, but it seems like all LR/Performance still qualify. Information from Tesla:

Only the Model Y RWD specifies a year...

Huh I must be missing something. Can you explain why the 2023 model doesn't qualify anymore but the 2024 model does? Is it not the same vehicle with the same components?

The 2023 Model Y RWD used the same battery pack, imported from China, as the Model 3 LR, just software locked to 260 miles of range.

I still haven't seen confirmation on what battery pack is going into the 2024 Model Y RWD. (It is likely a Panasonic 2170 based one, but is it a software limited LR, or have they started making smaller packs again? Or possibly it is using 4680s?)

 

[UkNorthampton]

All those fears may come true. Or not. The question is whether that matters in the long run.
My fear of the day is todays article in De Tijd: https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/auto/ook-kleine-bedrijfswagens-elektrificeren-vanaf-dit-jaar
“ In de laatste zes maanden van vorig jaar onttroonde de volledig elektrische BMW iX1 de Model Y van Tesla als populairste bedrijfswagen bij de bestellingen, blijkt uit de studie van Arval, dat als een van de grootste leasemaatschappijen van het land meer dan 100.000 bedrijfswagens onder beheer heeft.”
The quote says that in the last 6 months the BMW iX1 won more company car orders than the Model Y according to one of the biggest lease companies. (Note: in Belgium, where BMW is market leader due its desirability in the company car market)
Is the iX1 really so much more desirable than the Model Y? It turns out that the cheapest iX1 is around 60K euro, almost 50% more expensive than the cheapest Model Y, and with far worse specs.
There are now so many Model Y’s on the road that the real life comparison is inevitable between colleagues. I can’t imagine that people will keep choosing worse and more expensive cars. Tesla’s price drops will make the choice easier.

Oneupmanship / hierarchy. How do you tell who's the boss, most successful sales person when most employees in a company can afford a red Model Y Performance with White Interior as a company car? More options (wraps?) and trim levels would be needed.

Conversely, you can identify those in the company who have poor decision-making skills and are overly concerned over social status and fire them. You'll be left with a lot of BMW company cars though.

 

[scaesare]

If there is one thing I've learned in my decades of investing experience, it is this:

Everyone needs to invest how they are comfortable with, and not everyone can HODL successfully. Personally, my conviction in Tesla becoming a massively much more valuable company years from now is strong enough for me to ride the roller coaster. I'm willing to hold on during the dips to see the new highs. If you don't want to then VOO is always a very nice alternative.

The problem with selling with the intention to buy back in later on is....no one can predict the future with perfect timing. I never thought TSLA would moon in late 2019 but it did, and luckily I was already prepared for it. I don't want to miss the next TSLA moon shot, it is coming.

For those so interested, the last few weeks have been a great opportunity to leverage up...

So, given my couch cushions are rather bare... that's what I've been doing. We aren't even done with a short trading week, and I'm up 17 shares in my rather modest position in my non-IRA "play" account...

 

[Cosmacelf]

What is about to happen now is the realization that EVs are unstoppable (as the EV market continues to grow) and that Tesla and one Chinese auto maker are going to take much market share. With the Great OEM Pause of 2023, the competition won't can't catch up. Maybe this realization happens in 2024 or when the compact car ramps in 2025. Lower rates will help when the Fed reverses course at some point.

I agree, but we aren't there yet. We are in a pretty big anti-EV FUD cycle right now. Only way out of this cycle is moar EVs being shipped. So, won't be until 3Q24 at best before your realization starts to take hold.

FSD, AI, Robotics will be Realization III and IV.

Yeah, but not for years unfortunately. And not guaranteed hence the market's discount of these possibilities.

The key of course is access to batteries. Tesla needs to execute well here.

It's always been about batteries. Tesla is constantly banging up against that supply ceiling. The 2023 OEM EV pause will help. As will Texas construction, but that's a 2H24 at best help.

 

[scaesare]

Really considering liquidating most of my position, I’ve lost well into 7 figures from the highs and I see lower margins and more Elon issues on the horizon.

It’s been an amazing run but this company is run by a mental patient and I don’t have any faith in him short term. Teslas long term is bright but I fear a lot of pain in the next 2 years.

Tempted to just cut and paste my recent missive...

 

[mongo]

Are you sure about that? I know the 2023 Model Y RWD no longer qualifies, but it seems like all LR/Performance still qualify. Information from Tesla:

View attachment 1010425

Only the Model Y RWD specifies a year...

I am sure of nothing which is why I included the 23 and 24 vehicle lists from fueleconomy.gov. Especially since there is AWD vs LR AWD (sometimes).

Clicking inventory LR cars didn't tell me either way (but I think 2023 RWD say explicitly no?)

 

[UkNorthampton]

I think I know where a lot of Tesla shareholders are flocking to.

View attachment 1010413

Skating to where the puck was.

My recollection is that even with successful long term funds, investors lost money as they bought "the last best thing" in the performance leagues just before something else took the crown. I think Magellan fund was discussed with this in mind. Buy when high, sell when low.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Skating to where the puck was.

My recollection is that even with successful long term funds, investors lost money as they bought "the last best thing" in the performance leagues just before something else took the crown. I think Magellan fund was discussed with this in mind. Buy when high, sell when low.

Could be. Looks to be working pretty well for them thus far.

 

[Hiline]

Apparently not. IRA rules required no Chinese components in 2024. Minerals are ok until 2025.

Hmm I wonder what the change is. It may be why Tesla still hasn't started selling 2024 Model Y Long Range units in the US yet.

Are you sure about that? I know the 2023 Model Y RWD no longer qualifies, but it seems like all LR/Performance still qualify. Information from Tesla:

View attachment 1010425

Only the Model Y RWD specifies a year...



The 2023 Model Y RWD used the same battery pack as the Moel 3 LR that was imported from China, just software locked to 260 miles of range.

I still haven't seen confirmation on what battery pack is going into the 2024 Model Y RWD. (It is likely a Panasonic 2170 based one, but is it a software limited LR, or have they started making smaller packs again? Or possibly it is using 4680s?)

Interesting. I would really like the cheapest Model Y units to qualify for the tax credit...

 

[MP3Mike]

Interesting. I would really like the cheapest Model Y units to qualify for the tax credit...

The 2024 ones do. It is only left-over 2023 inventory RWDs that doesn't.

 

[Hiline]

I would assume that the '23 has too many China sourced battery components/materials.

Yeah but if the 2024 qualifies, then Tesla must be using a different battery.

I am sure of nothing which is why I included the 23 and 24 vehicle lists from fueleconomy.gov. Especially since there is AWD vs LR AWD (sometimes).

Clicking inventory LR cars didn't tell me either way (but I think 2023 RWD say explicitly no?)

I think the 2023 still qualifies.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I've been saying for a while now I think 2024 will largely be a "flat" year for the stock. A foundation year where Tesla lays the framework for excellent growth going forward, but financially an underwhelming year.

Factors I think will hold TSLA down in 2024:
- Further price cuts and lowering margins.
- A low guidance year (I'm expecting Tesla to guide for only 2.1 million production in 2024).
- CT ramp will be very slow due to 4680 ramp also being slow. Something like 80K CT's sold in 2024.
- A declining overall auto market will put negative pressure on TSLA by association.
- The economy overall will get worse before it gets better, and the Fed likely won't begin lowering rates until close to year's end.
- Tesla Energy ramp will be nice production wise but financially minor for 2024.
- FSD will probably improve but won't add much financially in 2024.
- No substantial semi production in 2024.

I still think we'll see a lot of positives for Tesla in 2024, I just don't think they'll impact TSLA at all in this year:
- We'll likely see the Gen3 Compact Tesla revealed by year's end, probably within the last two months. (no production until 2025 at the earliest tho)
- Optimus bots will probably begin testing in Tesla factories in 2024.
- Optimus progress will be substantial in 2024, but still remain in prototype phase.
- MY refresh will be super popular, but not a big adder due to existing production lines being close to maxed out.
- More states will get Tesla Insurance in 2024.
- At least one new factory location announced in 2024, possibly two.
- Giga Mexico construction likely to begin in 2024.


These are just me expectations for 2024, I certainly don't have a crystal ball or anything. I personally doubt TSLA crosses over $300 in 2024, maybe towards the EoY we get close to there again. I do think we'll cross the ATH again of $415 in 2025 though.

I agree with most of what you wrote. I've been predicting for a while now that 1Q25 will be epic since a lot of catalysts will finally be ready by then, but 2024 won't see much other than hopefully some announcements. As to when the stock will react, no one knows!

 

[NicoV]

Oneupmanship / hierarchy. How do you tell who's the boss, most successful sales person when most employees in a company can afford a red Model Y Performance with White Interior as a company car? More options (wraps?) and trim levels would be needed.

Ahem, you forgot about Model S and X.

 

[MP3Mike]

Yeah but if the 2024 qualifies, then Tesla must be using a different battery.

Yep, which is what I said:

I still haven't seen confirmation on what battery pack is going into the 2024 Model Y RWD. (It is likely a Panasonic 2170 based one, but is it a software limited LR, or have they started making smaller packs again? Or possibly it is using 4680s?)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Skating to where the puck was.

Fun Fact: As of yesterday, NVDA has displaced AMZN as the No. 3 equity in the S&P 500.

S&P 500 Companies - S&P 500 Index Components by Market Cap

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ahem, you forgot about Model S and X.

... and you forgot RHD.

 

[Mengy]

Skating to where the puck was.

My recollection is that even with successful long term funds, investors lost money as they bought "the last best thing" in the performance leagues just before something else took the crown. I think Magellan fund was discussed with this in mind. Buy when high, sell when low.

Yeah, I wouldn't buy NVDA at these prices as the boat has mostly been missed. Sure it still might go up some from here but I feel not much.

Whereas TSLA feels very undervalued (for a multi-year outlook) given what it has in the works and what the growth rate is. Yeah I wish I had sold all of my TSLA at $415 and could rebuy it all now at $210, but timing the market like that is super risky. Far easier to just HOLD for a decade and look to sell a bit once the Robotaxis are driving and the Bots are doing real world stuff.