Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[texas_star_TM3]

Costco, Walmart, Target, Amazon retail...all of these companies are just logistic companies at heart. They don't really invent or make anything and the innovation are all logistic related.

So the moral of the story is wall street assign many companies with random PEs regardless of margins/revenue growth or profits.

amazon doesnt innovate. lol. good one.

 

[Snerruc]

Has anyone seen any current cybertruck run rate numbers thrown around? It would be interesting to watch the production improvement curve as time goes on. Solving production problems etc.

Cheers.

Joe T says current rate is 100 a day on one of his videos. He is somewhat plugged in so may be close.

 

[SAPharmD]

https://x.com/BestTrader01/status/1750721201087942812?s=20

Im guessing he was using margin and had a stop hidden below $180 or so.

This is why I only buy shares in Tesla never use options or leverage.

Does that mean he lost everything - this post of his alluding to that possibility?

 

[Krugerrand]

After many, many years on this forum, please allow me to TRY to take a step back overlooking what we are (and have been) sharing here.
Two things stand out for me (apart from the sometimes very funny posts, that I appreciate).

1) No matter how hard people try to predict the future: we prove time and again that we simply cannot. Many posts are about this, but I mostly skip them. Sometimes people will proudly present how they were right in the past, but they always seem to forget the multiple times they were wrong. And Technical Analysis? Same category.
2) Fundamentals and facts of Tesla, its management and its competitors, are the things that count and that we can hold on to. Please keep the SWOT acronym in mind. However, a stock price that tanks on investor's emotions and analysts bla-bla may be seen as a fact, but is worthless for the long term investors thesis. Is the company healthy and the management doing ànd planning as they should do? That is what counts. For any company.
So, please keep the information/facts like from @The Accountant flowing into this thread please. As investors we should be very grateful for the effort some people like them put into this.

So is TSLA’s future, while being OK on number 2) in my opinion, all rosey?
Well no, while European competition is not a threat, the Chinese are a threat in my opinion. Flooding the market with relatively cheap cars in a lot of price categories is something that is already starting. Unless import tariffs are being used. However, that is only a temporary help for old auto, as they are barely innovating. A threat to Tesla? Time will tell.
And then there is Elon’s compensation plan. Thanks for the insightful post of @Artful Dodger about this subject, but for me personally it poses investor’s uncertainty for now.

Liked what you said and then you kind of went into a mild prediction mode yourself.

 

[Singuy]

amazon doesnt innovate. lol. good one.

Perhaps you should the sentence again.

 

[GOVA]

Is this really what you believe? That a guy like Dan Ives tries to manipulate a stock? Given that he as a price target on Tesla way above current trading price, I take it you believe that he is trying to manipulate the stock price upwards? How do you see him making money from that, indirectly through increased trading volumes or how?

Frankly, I don't think we can get anywhere if you can't understand what I wrote. I stop now.

 

[winfield100]

We can safely surmise that the worst - maybe 10% to 20% - of sites in terms of cost and utilization will probably never make any money. The best sites are profitable on a 10 to 15 year amortization schedule. The average site is probably somewhere around breakeven.

Musk’s goal of 30% gross margin and 10% net margin is probably a long term goal. The fleet is still too small to achieve that.
The Tesla fleet is 5 million vehicles. If you assume a generous $300 per vehicle in annual revenue, that is only $1.8 billion per annum. As other manufacturers come on board and the Tesla fleet explodes with the next gen vehicle, the fleet will 10x or even 20x over the next decade and 10% net margin will become a reality

Supercharger revenue is included in the services and others reporting segment which was $8.3 billion revenue and $500 million gross margin last year.
The fact that they choose to bury the numbers points to them not being very significant

Mildly OT OT
@Tony73
single data point
34,983 miles total, ~29,000 on superchargers,
$2,826.27 SC charges WAY over $300/year
84% superchargers, 16% sunlight
(June 2022 - January 10, 2024)( 1.5years)

We drive 2,000 - 3,500 mile trips lots

​

 

[Singuy]

This is a topic I think this forum should spend some time on and would be of value to all of us.

My gut tells me that this will become the next "competition is coming" scare. I don't think it will so easy for China to make a huge impact outside of Asia soon. They will get there but it will take much longer than people think, imo. I had some exposure/experience in China during my career but it would be great to hear from others on this topic.

Here is why I think the Chinese EV expansion outside of Asia will be slower than expected:
1. To reach huge volumes, manufacturing facilities will need to be established in Europe and North America
2. There are currently not many Chinese huge end to end manufacturing facilities outside of Asia (some in North Africa . . Investments starting in Mexico).
3. Mexico will be key to entering the US market and in Mexico the 3rd Party Supply chain is not comparable to China's supply chain. The auto supply chain is there in Mexico but the Chinese companies will need to establish their supply chain and may find that efficiencies are not like China. China's supply chain network is the best in the world.
4. There will be cultural issues. Often Chinese companies will insert Chinese ex-pats in most of the senior management roles whom are not tuned to the local cultural differences and can create mistrust, frustration and poor performance. A friend of mine that works at a Chinese bank in South America tells me that in management meetings, the conversation at times can move to Mandarin. The ex-pats will speak in Mandarin for 10 min then summarize for the locals with 2 sentences.

China can start with exports but I believe to be a huge threat to Tesla they will need to build manufacturing capacity abroad and this will take time and come with some hiccups.

Please others with thoughts . . . chime in.

Well first we need to see how Chinese car companies using Chinese labors and cheap local sourcing are doing.

Xpeng: -2% gross margin
Nio: 1% gross margin
Li: 22% gross margin
Polestar: 1% gross margin
BYD:...not sure since they don't break down EVs only
Tesla Shanghai: 30%+ gross margin

Something tells me not only many of these companies will go belly up within the next 2 years, but entering EU/USA using US workers while in conjunction running very expensive marketing campaigns(cause who the heck are all these companies and why would they pick them vs a Tesla?) may not be very competitive when they are not outpacing Tesla on their home turf.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a topic I think this forum should spend some time on and would be of value to all of us.

My gut tells me that this will become the next "competition is coming" scare. I don't think it will so easy for China to make a huge impact outside of Asia soon. They will get there but it will take much longer than people think, imo. I had some exposure/experience in China during my career but it would be great to hear from others on this topic.

Here is why I think the Chinese EV expansion outside of Asia will be slower than expected:
1. To reach huge volumes, manufacturing facilities will need to be established in Europe and North America
2. There are currently not many Chinese huge end to end manufacturing facilities outside of Asia (some in North Africa . . Investments starting in Mexico).
3. Mexico will be key to entering the US market and in Mexico the 3rd Party Supply chain is not comparable to China's supply chain. The auto supply chain is there in Mexico but the Chinese companies will need to establish their supply chain and may find that efficiencies are not like China. China's supply chain network is the best in the world.
4. There will be cultural issues. Often Chinese companies will insert Chinese ex-pats in most of the senior management roles whom are not tuned to the local cultural differences and can create mistrust, frustration and poor performance. A friend of mine that works at a Chinese bank in South America tells me that in management meetings, the conversation at times can move to Mandarin. The ex-pats will speak in Mandarin for 10 min then summarize for the locals with 2 sentences.

China can start with exports but I believe to be a huge threat to Tesla they will need to build manufacturing capacity abroad and this will take time and come with some hiccups.

Please others with thoughts . . . chime in.

But so what if they become the competition? There’s room for two EV makers in the world. May not be room for anyone else at that point but we don’t care about the others at this point. Do we? They’ve proven inept and untrustworthy.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Joe T says current rate is 100 a day on one of his videos. He is somewhat plugged in so may be close.

Thankyou Snerruc. Higher than I thought.

 

[SOULPEDL]

yes they are the underwriter in a number of states.

Anyone know which state that Tesla underwrites. This could help narrow the scope of where ground zero is for FSD as think the two must be together.

 

[Krugerrand]

I am looking to sell my Model 3 2018 Tesla with 90,000 miles. I paid 2 1/2 years ago, prime at $41,000. I can get $22,00 for it! Thats crazy! Thinking about going back to Toyota! I go through tires every year in Pennsylvania at $1500 plus alignment. 20,000 /year. The PCP may be going to. There is also backorders for a month to get the part for $600 plus installation , out of warranty. $2000! Had to replace the rod last month plus diagnostic for $450. for a $20 part.

Hello, new member. Firstly, you’re on the wrong Internet forum. In your Google search box you need to type ‘TOYOTA owners club’. Secondly, be sure to post in the correct thread there, if they even have a long term investor thread.

And lastly, be very careful what your next few posts are here.

 

[Krugerrand]

Does that mean he lost everything - this post of his alluding to that possibility?

Seems a likely outcome given the venom.

 

[cliff harris]

This SO looks like the inevitable rebound. Someone stop me selling all my NVDA to stash it in yet more TSLA for a week...

 

[NicoV]

We’re almost at the end of the first month of the quarter, and currently the real-time reporting EU countries are (again) ahead of all previous quarters: Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 15 countries, majority of BEV market

 

[hobbes]

Hmm... so completed cathode rolls (ostensibly made with the traditional slurry application & drying process), not just raw materials?

Seems so:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748012290320794068

As Tesla previously said they are doing dry anode and cathode, probably the rate at which they can produce dry cathodes cannot keep up with the others processes yet (IMHO).

 

[2daMoon]

This SO looks like the inevitable rebound. Someone stop me selling all my NVDA to stash it in yet more TSLA for a week...

Anyone remember the Wham-O Superball as a kid?

What happened when you threw it at the ground as hard as you could?

Just sayin', think of TSLA as a stock-based Superball (then, estimate how hard it has been thrown against the ground)

 

[Buckminster]

 

[CreativeName]

I am looking to sell my Model 3 2018 Tesla with 90,000 miles. I paid 2 1/2 years ago, prime at $41,000. I can get $22,00 for it! Thats crazy! Thinking about going back to Toyota! I go through tires every year in Pennsylvania at $1500 plus alignment. 20,000 /year. The PCP may be going to. There is also backorders for a month to get the part for $600 plus installation , out of warranty. $2000! Had to replace the rod last month plus diagnostic for $450. for a $20 part.

That’s a lot of exclamation marks for a reply that has nothing to do with the original post (or the entire thread)! I hope your new Corolla brings you happiness!

 

[Knightshade]

Anyone know which state that Tesla underwrites. This could help narrow the scope of where ground zero is for FSD as think the two must be together.

Tesla Insurance expands to 3 more states, begins underwriting its own policies

Tesla Insurance expanded to Oregon, Virginia, and Colorado this week, and is expected to be available to 80% of Tesla owners in the U.S. by the end of 2022, the company’s CFO said Wednesday d…

www.repairerdrivennews.com

This lists Arizona, California, Illinois, Ohio, and Texas as the states that were in the system before they began underwriting directly.... and Oregon, Virginia, and Colorado as the 3 added as of the story with Tesla doing the underwriting in those 3.

Since then they've also added Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, and Utah- Zachs comments when they began underwriting suggest the new ones are also Tesla, but can't find a quick clear answer on that.

Nevada, FWIW, would be a great overlap on a state where there's no "regulators" to need approval from for self driving and where they offer insurance-- plus generally good weather conditions as far as not a lot of rain/snow/etc..... that's also the state Mercedes launched the first >L2 system in the US (though theirs is hilariously narrow ODD at L3)

single data point
34,983 miles total, ~29,000 on superchargers,
$2,826.27 SC charges WAY over $300/year
84% superchargers, 16% sunlight
(June 2022 - January 10, 2024)( 1.5years)

We drive 2,000 - 3,500 mile trips lots

Ok, but that is exceedingly atypical.... the average American drives about 40 miles a day, for which home charging is more than sufficient.