Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder what needs to happen for this loss of control to take place?

A few things come to mind:

• end of the Madoff Exemption (which legalized naked shorting for Options)
• dividends (making it impossible to hide perpetual short sales off-shore)
• block-chain (to provide a reliable inventory of outstanding shares)
• strong international progress (Wall St. is NOT the end of the World)

So, it's a long haul, but it needs to happen. IMO, this is why we resist progress on sustainable energy; entrenched interests at stake.

Cheers!

 

[mongo]

Cool! Do you have quick access to a link to that Form 4? Thanks!

Yeah, I missed that F4 at the time also. It was from an old patent incentive plan. I guess adding to his share count isn't news...
In the two months betwen the grants, Tesla went up 39%.

SEC FORM 4

Two posts upthread.
If link is broken, go here and enter elon musk:
SEC.gov | EDGAR Full Text Search

 

[dl003]

Elon said 6 years ago "if you don't like volatility, sell TSLA shares and don't buy them". Did you forget, or just ignore him?

Musk Says Don't Buy Volatile Tesla Stock; Investors Take Heed | BNN Bloomberg (May 3, 2018)​

So that's exactly what shortzes have done all these years, and are still doing: Selling and not Buying TSLA.

This will end poorly for short sellers, because Tesla the Business can no longer be affected by the money-changers. They are dancing between the raindrops, ignoring the coming deluge of profits.

We both have held the same stock for the last 4 years and Im pretty sure I will continue to hold it for longer than you will. The difference between you and I is I can tell the difference between volatility and poor planning.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We both have held the same stock for the last 4 years and Im pretty sure I will continue to hold it for longer than you will. The difference between you and I is I can tell the difference between volatility and poor planning.

I have held my shares for far longer than 4 years, and you have no idea how long I will hold. The difference between us is that I think short sellers are committing securities fraud, and you think its Elon's fault. Let's talk again in 6 years.

Cheers!

 

[Mengy]

A few things come to mind:

• end of the Madoff Exemption (which legalized naked shorting for Options)
• dividends (making it impossible to hide perpetual short sales off-shore)
• block-chain (to provide a reliable inventory of outstanding shares)
• strong international progress (Wall St. is NOT the end of the World)

So, it's a long haul, but it needs to happen. IMO, this is why we resist progress on sustainable energy; entrenched interests at stake.

Cheers!

But none of that will happen anytime soon, if ever. Dividends is the only one even remotely plausible IMHO. I'd love it if Tesla issued a few pennies per share dividend, just enough to screw the shorts up, but I don't think they will do that.

This is why I'm bearish on TSLA over the next few years (trading mostly flat and below $300), I just don't see anything to prevent Wall Street from continuing to hold the stock down. Massive buying pressure could overwhelm them, but I don't think we'll see that kind of pressure until Gen3 is well into production and contributing to the balance sheet, which won't be until EoY 2025 at the earliest. Or until Optimus is being sold to customers, or until FSD is solved, but I don't think either of them is likely within the next few years either. Megapack is ramping nicely but it's still early in its S curve and I don't think it's going to move the needle measurably for awhile yet.

It's disheartening to think about. While I'm going to simply hold through this slump, I can see why some investors might not be willing to do that.

 

[SO16]

But none of that will happen anytime soon, if ever. Dividends is the only one even remotely plausible IMHO. I'd love it if Tesla issued a few pennies per share dividend, just enough to screw the shorts up, but I don't think they will do that.

This is why I'm bearish on TSLA over the next few years (trading mostly flat and below $300), I just don't see anything to prevent Wall Street from continuing to hold the stock down. Massive buying pressure could overwhelm them, but I don't think we'll see that kind of pressure until Gen3 is well into production and contributing to the balance sheet, which won't be until EoY 2025 at the earliest. Or until Optimus is being sold to customers, or until FSD is solved, but I don't think either of them is likely within the next few years either.

It's disheartening to think about. While I'm going to simply hold through this slump, I can see why some investors might not be willing to do that.

I agree. And there is absolutely no way the madeoff rule will change. Too much money to be made by the crooks.

I’ve been massively in since 2016 and going through all the turbulence in the past was easy for me. But this time it seems worse because the “mag 6” along with most of the market and BTC is back to near or at ATH.

If this is our new normal, I wish the 413 SP never happened because I stupidly didn’t sell. I almost did and had the sell order ready to go. I didn’t because I plan to stay invested for many more years. But back in 2016, I never would have guessed we would be even at today’s prices and I’d be ecstatic. (I’m still pleased as I’m up massively overall but still not as pleased as I was before…haha. New normals I guess.)

Options players on the other thread seem to be doing well but I don’t have the knowledge nor the guts to try that. I simply buy and hold and never on margin. At least one good thing is that I can keep buying “cheap” shares. I’m just getting sick of the “buying opportunities” though.

The only other catalyst I can think of in the near term is if a major manufacturer announces they will license FSD and start a domino effect for other manufacturers to do the same like NACS. I’m holding my breath that’s what Elon meant with his “gm” tweet. Haha. But I know that is totally wishful thinking.

 

[Knightshade]

You:

I don't trust anything from roto-REUTERS, I include it just to show the opposition's spin. The notion that Musk is trying to "escape liablility" is laughable.

Also you:

[*]'move to Texas' vote soon; legal action in Delaware can pound it (dare me)

 

[Mengy]

The only other catalyst I can think of in the near term is if a major manufacturer announces they will license FSD and start a domino effect for other manufacturers to do the same like NACS. I’m holding my breath that’s what Elon meant with his “gm” tweet. Haha. But I know that is totally wishful thinking.

Honestly I don't think even that would be a big catalyst for TSLA. Yes it would be great from a long term perspective, but I don't think Wall Street attributes any value at all to FSD today, they just don't believe it's going to happen, so OEM's licensing "nothing" would still probably be nothing for the stock. At least not until we start seeing revenues to the bottom line from such deals. In my opinion of course.

Just look at the NACS deals, 98% of auto makers have adopted NACS now and yet we are at $190/share with a PE of 44 while the rest of the Mag7 are at ATH's.

 

[SO16]

Honestly I don't think even that would be a big catalyst for TSLA. Yes it would be great from a long term perspective, but I don't think Wall Street attributes any value at all to FSD today, they just don't believe it's going to happen, so OEM's licensing "nothing" would still probably be nothing for the stock. At least not until we start seeing revenues to the bottom line from such deals. In my opinion of course.

Just look at the NACS deals, 98% of auto makers have adopted NACS now and yet we are at $190/share with a PE of 44 while the rest of the Mag7 are at ATH's.

I can see why NACS wouldn’t help TSLA. In fact, it probably overall hurts Tesla due to losing the moat. Yes there are supercharger fees but that won’t account for “THAT” much profit.

Back to licensing FSD, perhaps license even just basic AP. That would definitely be an income stream but it would take years to fully materialize.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Ark bought another 145k of tsla today. Love it.

Total holdings are still some 70% off their peak. They must not believe their 5-year price targets.

Not sure why anyone takes Ark seriously. ARKK has underperformed QQQ by some 200% since inception. Their ROI is horrendous.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is why I'm bearish on TSLA over the next few years (trading mostly flat and below $300)

What you forget is that shortzes WANT the stock to go up; that's when they sell. It won't be flat; it'll be volatile (just like Elon told us back in May 2018).

As for the rest, I don't care if the U.S. never sorts itself out. The Mission is larger than Wall St, or indeed, any one country. Just getting China carbon neutral will be a huge win for everyone. With the new Shanghai 'Megapacktory', their increasing rate of EV adoption, and renewables like the Western Deserts Solar project, ITS HAPPENING. And its a competitive business advantage for them to run on low-cost, abundant renewable energy.

Frankly, Wall St. can pound sand. They'll order the turtle soup for lunch on the day they go extinct.

 

[cliff harris]

I think people are way too pessimistic about the potential for a stock price climb. There is no much good news. The SP being low has just depressed all us regular posters! Potential catalysts:

• FSD v12 wide release
• FSD release in China
• FSD release in Europe
• Breakthrough with 4680s (maybe the asymmetric lamination?) results in a range boost or cost reduction for all 4680 vehicles.
• Semi mass production starts
• Optimus update
• Interest rates fall and Tesla holds prices the same...margins leap up
• Rivian/Lucid/Nikola collapse
• Collapse in sales of the F150 Lightning
• Model 2 reveal
• Cybertruck ramp accelerates
• Model Y juniper update
• Much improved Q1 financials due to highland production cost fall
• Lithium price fall translates to lower costs & higher margins
• Climate-Change major event forces step-change on policy for EVs.

No idea how many of these, if any happen in the next six months, or even month. Predicting Tesla is very hard. None of us saw the hertz deal coming. None of us saw the GM NACS deal coming.
My best guess is interest rates falling, and combo of lithium drop/highland optimisations lead to decent margins in Q1. FSD timeline feels random. I don't expect model 2 reveal in the next 6 months. I do expect one of rivian, lucid or nikola to be wound up soonish. Personally am excited about optimus and semi.

 

[dhrivnak]

I can see why NACS wouldn’t help TSLA. In fact, it probably overall hurts Tesla due to losing the moat. Yes there are supercharger fees but that won’t account for “THAT” much profit.

Back to licensing FSD, perhaps license even just basic AP. That would definitely be an income stream but it would take years to fully materialize.

I disagree, as I think Tesla has superior products and now the other EV owners will see that clearly each and every time they charge. As a Bolt person charges at 55kW sees Tesla's come and go they likely will rethink their next EV. As a Mach-E owner meets many Tesla owners, most again charging faster then they can they too may rethink their purchase.

 

[SO16]

I disagree, as I think Tesla has superior products and now the other EV owners will see that clearly each and every time they charge. As a Bolt person charges at 55kW sees Tesla's come and go they likely will rethink their next EV. As a Mach-E owner meets many Tesla owners, most again charging faster then they can they too may rethink their purchase.

I hope that’s how it plays out.

 

[AndrewZ]

I can see why NACS wouldn’t help TSLA. In fact, it probably overall hurts Tesla due to losing the moat. Yes there are supercharger fees but that won’t account for “THAT” much profit.

Back to licensing FSD, perhaps license even just basic AP. That would definitely be an income stream but it would take years to fully materialize.

Nobody else wants to put Autosteer on City Streets into consumer’s hands as a Level 2 ADAS, the other car companies are much more likely to put in more limited systems that do fewer things but those fewer things are fool-proof — only Tesla wants to take this kind of risk with FSD.

Even Autopilot is a much more liberal and risky implementation than what the other companies likely would ever want to use, Mobileye for example is used in a lot of different brands for advanced cruise control and specifically cut its partnership with Tesla back in the early AP1 days because Tesla was taking too much risk with how it was deploying the tech.

Also Mobileye’s average system price is around $50 per car, a bunch of cameras and some software licensing do not cost much and likely won’t produce material revenue for a company like Tesla.

 

[2daMoon]

Are there such things as "Intern" trading algorithms?

If so, were they left in charge this morning?

 

[Drax7]

Rally in the face of doom and gloom, what’s going on

 

[Ellec]

But none of that will happen anytime soon, if ever. Dividends is the only one even remotely plausible IMHO. I'd love it if Tesla issued a few pennies per share dividend, just enough to screw the shorts up, but I don't think they will do that.

This is why I'm bearish on TSLA over the next few years (trading mostly flat and below $300), I just don't see anything to prevent Wall Street from continuing to hold the stock down. Massive buying pressure could overwhelm them, but I don't think we'll see that kind of pressure until Gen3 is well into production and contributing to the balance sheet, which won't be until EoY 2025 at the earliest. Or until Optimus is being sold to customers, or until FSD is solved, but I don't think either of them is likely within the next few years either. Megapack is ramping nicely but it's still early in its S curve and I don't think it's going to move the needle measurably for awhile yet.

It's disheartening to think about. While I'm going to simply hold through this slump, I can see why some investors might not be willing to do that.

I am not bearish or bullish on the stock over the next one to two years, I think it will bounce between $170-$320, but that could change if they have a unexpected quarter that exceeds estimates. For selfish reasons I am happy about this, like you I only buy unleveraged stocks and plan to hold forever.

Given this time horizon the next few years will be a period of accumulating, where every $100 spend on TSLA will be worth potentially $1000 in a decade (in my opinion).

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758144168352985222

 

[Hock1]

A few things come to mind:

• end of the Madoff Exemption (which legalized naked shorting for Options)
• dividends (making it impossible to hide perpetual short sales off-shore)
• block-chain (to provide a reliable inventory of outstanding shares)
• strong international progress (Wall St. is NOT the end of the World)

So, it's a long haul, but it needs to happen. IMO, this is why we resist progress on sustainable energy; entrenched interests at stake.

Cheers!

What we need is a few more of the “smart money” people to announce that the stock is going nowhere for 2 years.