Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

It seems like Elon is following the Great War General

“When your army has crossed the border, you should burn your boats and bridges, in order to make it clear to everybody that you have no hankering after home.”​

― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

 

[jschwefel]

Not to me. I know a little bit about how the financial markets work and most of what is written about "Wall Street" here seems simply based on misunderstandings about how the markets and their different actors work.

Please enlighten us. I’m still trying to understand the markets and I appreciate any new insight into how they work.

 

[DarkandStormy]

It seems like Elon is following the Great War General

“When your army has crossed the border, you should burn your boats and bridges, in order to make it clear to everybody that you have no hankering after home.”​

― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

There are two, ya know, actual wars going on right now.

A bit tone deaf to keep seeing this "wartime CEO" mumbo jumbo pop up.

A little perspective is needed by some.

 

[Linkmeup]

There are two, ya know, actual wars going on right now.

A bit tone deaf to keep seeing this "wartime CEO" mumbo jumbo pop up.

A little perspective is needed by some.

Ask and you shall receive:

Peacetime CEO/Wartime CEO | Andreessen Horowitz

In peacetime, it’s all about growth. In wartime, it’s just about surviving.

a16z.com

 

[kbM3]

There are two, ya know, actual wars going on right now.

A bit tone deaf to keep seeing this "wartime CEO" mumbo jumbo pop up.

A little perspective is needed by some.

Lighten up Francis

 

[Musskiah]

You are assigning blame to WS. WS is not taking advantage of EM. EM made a deal, he's made lots of deals. The deal had conditions. WTF was he thinking I will never know, I assume he wasn't. This is why you have COUNSEL, he has none...on purpose. CT, keeping 4680 staff at 100 (WTF), and Twatter. Current issue is all on EM. X is hiring like crazy because they are rebuilding the same structure that existed before EM took control. So yeah, he bought a functioning un profitable company for far too much. F'd it up so it was no longer functional in the view of the ad folks, killed value and revenues, and now is having to rebuild it all and hope ad folks return.

Okay

 

[MC3OZ]

I get boring company tunnels. Let me know when the first one opens.

There is one in Vegas.

It is true that you need to move peak hours people, meeting peak hour(s) demand requires a large fleet.

A requirement for a large fleet requires a low cost per vehicle.

I once drove my car into a CBD, running "on-time" for a job interview I parked in the expensive car park under the offices, When I saw the parking fees, I was really hoping that I would get the job, they where about 5X-7X what I was hoping to pay.

The cost of parking a private car in a CBD car park will typically exceed the cost of the Robotaxi return trip.

Even if the company provides parking for employees, that is still very expensive to do.

Where parking is cheaper, traffic is typically less, and higher fleet utilisation is possible,

 

[Musskiah]

@replicant Do you have a daily thumbs down quota you must fulfill every day? Or are you just one of those highly disagreable fellows?

 

[Musskiah]

There is one in Vegas.

That's not fair. He threw you an alley-oop

 

[DarkandStormy]

Lighten up Francis

And don't call me Shirley!

 

[jschwefel]

I get that very very simplistic view of how transportation works except it doesn't. The # of cars moving around in the day is a fraction of that moving at peak hours. You still have to move peak hours people. If RT isn't there to do that they will have cars, if they have a car why in the world wouldn't they use it to run an errand in the middle of the day or go to get a bite. RT will have a giant conundrum.

I get boring company tunnels. Let me know when the first one opens.

I get compact robotaxis...I can see that great for someone traveling from one spot to another that doesn't want company.


EM capped the 4680 team at 100? It was pretty much bet the company, it had to work. I got moderator banned and cautioned an all sorts of flax over 2 years ago because the 4680 cells that had to be there were nowhere close, that the team was tiny, that it was not scaling, etc. Every concern I had was dismissed. Pat myself on the back ...I was right. That was a time to sell. Now we find out what went wrong, they had 100 people to commercialize a new battery technology that Samsung or LG would have put 500 and Catl 1000. Brilliant.

This is much worse IMO. I don't understand battery chemistries, not at the heart of it. I do get smoke than fire. THE ENTIRE RT argument is so smokey I suggest gas masks and thermal blankets.

I tend to agree with you, the whole RoboTaxi thing is smoke,…at least at the moment. I do believe it’ll be HUGE one day, but the RT business is years away from having an impact on Tesla’s financials.

The Model 3/Y solidified Tesla as a mainstream automaker. The Model 3 launched in late 2017/early 2018, and the stock didn’t respond for another two plus years. I think we’re in a similar place with RT.

At the moment, Tesla is largely an automaker. Autos make up +90% of the business and while there are new and perhaps more exciting things in the pipeline, I think Tesla still has a lot of opportunity as an automaker. The Cybertruck is a phenomenal product indeed, but the Model 3/Y still have room to grow considering the size of those markets. Soooo many people have no idea how affordable Teslas are, or they’ve been misinformed by the fake news media or certain presidential candidates. Charging and/or service may be an issue for some who are considering going electric, but there’re a lot of people not even considering it due to misinformation, brand loyalty, fear of the unknown or reluctance to change. If Tesla the automaker is going to grow, they need to reach this next group of buyers.

 

[MC3OZ]

At the moment, Tesla is largely an automaker.

Don't tell Elon.

 

[spacerfc]

From that X post, this is at the heart of the FUD and short campaign Tesla finds itself in. Even if 4680 and Cybertruck production is behind schedule, there is a far more ominous concern...

"In 2022, Musk raised $46.5 billion to acquire Twitter, a significant portion of which was obtained through pledging his own stocks. According to Tesla's filings, by the end of March 2023, Musk had pledged 58% of his stocks, totaling 238 million shares worth over $40 billion.During the six months Musk pushed for the Twitter deal, Tesla's stock price peaked at $384 and dropped to as low as $198 — about 22% higher than it is now. If Tesla's stock price continues to plummet, and Musk is unable to make additional payments to the lending institutions, his pledged stocks might be forcibly sold, potentially causing a vicious cycle. "Any such sales could further depress our stock price," stated Tesla's annual report."

Wall Street may finally have him trapped in his collateralized loans for Twitter backed by TSLA shares. If this is true, this may help explain the rapid shift in strategy. It truly is a bet-the-company moment.

It's been a while since FUD is this thick...

1. Elon didn't use shared backed margin loan to buy twitter, originally that was the plan, but that part was changed later on. This fortune article has a break down of how the funding for twitter purchase works, it did not include any Tesla share backed loans.

2. In 2023, Tesla board enacted new policy that limits the total loan amount Elon can collateralize with his stake at the lesser of $3.5 billion or 25% of the value of the stock. Should be obvious that he can pay back the $3.5B easily no matter what.

 

[2daMoon]

I am worried we are back in similar situation with bet the company on RT and autonomy .

I'm hoping we are.

Can't wait to see them both (birdie and taxi) grow.

 

[Discoducky]

IMO, this is the first of many India Tesla announcements which also coincided with a Starlink India announcement.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780394956521124253

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780376546148327690

Not quite betting the company...

 

[Artful Dodger]

I find this theory to be plausible. Musk has many enemies in the industries he is disrupting, in politics, and in those that wish to control speech and thought. Would not be surprised to learn of efforts to push TSLA down to cause him to be forced to sell.

And you know why it's not possible? Tesla's corporate bylaws include a clause stating that no officer or director can encumber more than 25% of their shareholdings as collateral for loans. Ergo, this theory is falseified, and is debunked by the facts.

 

[keydiver]

Raising prices = decreasing demand. It would appear, for the time being, they are going to try to increase margins. That's likely to come at the expense of growing volumes.

But, isn't that exactly what WS and the analysts have been demanding, getting back to the 25% margins? IIRC, Elon himself stated at a recent earnings report that their goal was to get back to 25% margins.

 

[uscbucsfan]

But, isn't that exactly what WS and the analysts have been demanding, getting back to the 25% margins? IIRC, Elon himself stated at a recent earnings report that their goal was to get back to 25% margins.

Through lowering costs.

Raising prices or cutting incentives decreases demand, which is already down.

 

[Gigapress]

I'd be curious to see, can you point me to a citation that is written by any civil engineer traffic expert that says TaaS helps with sustainability and/or a Tesla anaysis that was NOT written by cathy " i am a walking fruitcack" woods.

I’m not a traffic engineer but here’s my contribution anyway. Autonomy allows for many sustainability improvements.

• Elimination of vast swathes of parking, which take up a huge amount of space and greatly contribute to urban heat island effects and stormwater runoff pollution. Replace with green space or more buildings. In many cities in North America parking is like 30% of the entire land area.

• Elimination of spontaneous traffic waves that occur due to inefficient human driving behavior

• Most vehicles can be right-sized for the job. Less wasted space, materials, energy. Less tire dust particulates.

• Massively accelerate economic forces driving transition to EVs

• Make carpooling/ridesharing easier and more convenient

• More efficient driving behavior in general. Most humans drive aggressively and do not know how to maximize energy efficiency, or they do know and don’t care.

• Fewer crashes clogging up roadways and contributing to inefficient stop-and-go traffic

• Less roadway danger means cycling, walking, scootering and other similar modes of transportation become more appealing. Also, having affordable convenient robotaxis with bike rack options help solve the edge cases that make reliance of bicycle more challenging. It adds lots of flexibility to a bike-based trip in case of change of plans. (I did the impossible and lived car-free in an American suburban city for five years, and I would have loved to have a robotaxi option as a backup plan instead of the bus)

• Shrinking the safe gap between vehicles due to elimination of ~1 second human reaction time for braking, which will enable more throughput for a given amount of road infrastructure. Also could improve aero efficiency from vehicles drafting each other better.