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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I don't drive enough to consider paying for any of this so I'm probably biased. Curious as well, how many of people's wives/females are hardcore looking forward to using FSD? I've mentioned before my partner has no interest in self driving or even basic auto-pilot stuff. Seems to be more of a boy and their toys thing.
Sample size 1. My wife has a 2020 M3p with FSD free trial and one of the worst commutes in the Bay Area (Walnut Creek to Redwood City).

She was always satisfied with autopilot on highway for her needs. But for $99 she will be a subscriber. She was shocked at how well it does and the pace of progress.
 
"When he arrived in the new world, Cortez burned his ships. Hence, his men were well motivated."

― Captain Marko Ramias, The Hunt for Red October
While that kind of language is entertaining, I think it can worry some people...

There is a difference between:-
  1. All in on Robotaxis.
  2. Bet the company with no plan B,
IMO we are only looking on at 1., and a fairly conservative well thought out version of 1.

So perhaps a couple of row boat oars were burned in the fire to cook dinner.
 
@MC3OZ You're trying to be reasonable. That's why TSLAQ bears will beat you, because they're not constrained by being reasonable, or honest, or factual. Rhetoric is a dirty game.

This is a grudge match now, like it or not. Just ask the Delaware Chancery Court, who took 300 million shares from Elon with the stroke of a pen. You think the shareholder with nine shares, or the law firm which has a history of serial lawsuits of this type, wasn't financed by some hedge fund? Good luck with that.

They are targeting Elon in every way and through every means which they can imagine. Whether that be media FUD, frivolous lawsuits, or unfair treatment by government, their greed and their hatred is unbounded.

Not only do I expect Elon to burn some bridges and ships, I also expect him to burn some shorts. The dino-sours and fossil-fools won't let him live in peace. They have to attack his mission. If this was ancient Rome, Elon would be Spartacus. In the modern world, Elon is Spartacus with a rocket spear, and a legion of millions of followers.
 
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Not quite betting the company...
I’m really curious how this next earnings call will go with this shift away from the traditional businesses and towards autonomy. FSD has not been a huge topic on previous earnings calls particularly as it pertains to dollars and cents, and now the apparent focus is shifting entirely to this.

It will be a massive step change and I don’t know how it will go down, or the call will still mostly be about cars and batteries and COGS and such even though the public shift is entirely towards autonomy.

Should definitely be interesting
 
I’m really curious how this next earnings call will go with this shift away from the traditional businesses and towards autonomy. FSD has not been a huge topic on previous earnings calls particularly as it pertains to dollars and cents, and now the apparent focus is shifting entirely to this.

It will be a massive step change and I don’t know how it will go down, or the call will still mostly be about cars and batteries and COGS and such even though the public shift is entirely towards autonomy.

Should definitely be interesting

If there was ever an earnings call that Elon needs to prep for this is the one. Unfortunately it is not in his nature. He “ll say something stupid like “automomy margins are irrelevant” and that will be the headline the day after
 
He said autonomy was what they were going to do in a giant room full of all wall street analysts and it was livestreamed...in 2019.

@Artful Dodger is right, it's all rhetoric. No one is appreciating this moment. It's not going to be around forever and you're going to miss it when it's gone.

Also, just to clarify: the moment is, now after trying FSD, when autonomy becomes realized after its long march of the 9's of safety.
 
I love everything about this. Everything. This feels like the good ole days at Tesla. It has the feel of Elon sleeping on the factory floor and everyone having to explain their worth. Many here won’t get it or understand, but the whole shakeup going on is signature Elon on a mission. It’s quite literally the most bullish AF scarlet neon flashing sign.

People have been complaining about Elon being distracted and wanting Elon back. Well, this IS Elon back at full steam. I don’t want to hear one complaint from that group of people, because you just got your wish.
Y'know, if we had Elon back going all in on the new platform unboxed process, then I'd be just as thrilled. Instead we have Elon back going all in on autonomy, something he has proven over and over that he's utterly unable to understand. He's been drastically wrong repeatedly and there's no indication that he's learned anything.

So, no, I'm not thrilled. Regarding FSD he's a complete idiot, and apparently incapable of understanding or admitting it.

I've been driving with the software since it came out, in fact my first Tesla was a 2014 Model S P85 built with the very first autopilot hardware, so I've gotten to experience every improvement over the years and paid close attention to everything Elon has said over the years. He's never been even slightly right about it.
 
🤘BALLS TO THE WALL - That's the Elon I love🤘
Screenshot 2024-03-10 191253.png

 
I don’t think Elon has thought through the consequences because if no significant growth forecast in the next few years the share price will drop and he may be forced to sell the shares he has put up for collateral.

It’s only a matter of time before some Wall Street players decide on this strategy and do even more naked short selling than they do at the moment.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Krugerrand
Please enlighten us. I’m still trying to understand the markets and I appreciate any new insight into how they work.
The phrase "please enlighten us" is often used to indicate sarcasm. Are you seriously curious about what I see as the recurring misunderstandings of Wall Street on this forum? Alternatively, if you are just looking for an internet fight, I am not interested.
 
By now Elon chimed in and said he is not betting the company on autonomy.

He is just heavily aiming for autonomy. This is not new information. On Autonomy Day he said "[autonomy] is basically our entire cost structure".

If you didn't sell your shares then, why should you now?

Also, I can't stand how most want to have their cake and eat it too. They want to own TSLA shares that nicely appreciate each year and Elon should focus on more car models, a cheaper car etc, AND evolve FSD , but risky strategies that involve producing the necessary batteries (4680's) or progressing towards FSD (building out compute, sensor suites and inventing cutting edge NN's/training methods) are a big no no. Wut?

If Elon did not pursue disruption, Tesla would be just another OEM by now, selling cars at 5% margins and slowly growing in proven markets.

The will (and guts) to disrupt is the main reason I invest in Tesla and not some other green company.

Time will tell if Elon will lead Tesla to victory. But if he were to fail, it won't have been for lack of trying.

Now let's continue with the spring cleaning of the company (and the investor base at the same time, lol).
 
That LateAuto articles has its errors and flaws but thinking that Cybertruck is another "Model X" moment is quite reasonable. Boredom is Musk biggest enemy and we don't know how it would have played out, but I'm sure there is a better present out there in the multiverse where Model X didn't happen and Musk just went straight to the ICE jugular with the 3 a couple years in advance. He actually said that in retrospect he wouldn't have bult that if he knew how difficult it was.

Maybe the Cybertruck is the same and it delayed the "Model 2" a couple of years too. Also GFs are a politics game and now Musk with X is not neutral at all, I'm sure there are many delays that couldn't have happened if he wasn't so exposed...

Anyway, I'm not too worried about the autonomy pivot: I don't see as a "bet the farm", but in 6 months time we'll now more. The SP is likely gonna suffer.
 
Yeah okay. I guess there's no evidence of nepharious shorting...



Cramer and Karp may not know what you know, so perhaps they are errant in their thinking.

Maybe you could be more specific about how you view the "misunderstandings" expressed here. I am open to being educated. That's what I love about this place, it's a wonderful place to learn from various perspectives of all types.
The regular misunderstandings I see:

1. Describing "Wall Street" as if it had a united view or agenda. Wall Street is an umbrella term to describe the financial markets and the companies that trade publicly on exchanges throughout the U.S. It can also be used to describe people who work or are active in those markets/companies. Ascribing a certain view or intention on all participants in that group is false. It would be like saying that TMC's investor forum has one view, when in reality it covers a wide spectrum of views and agendas.
2. Exaggerating the importance / influence of short sellers while simultaneously disregarding all market actors taking long bets. Yes, as follows from the links you included, there are hedge funds and short sellers and some of them try to - sometimes successfully, sometimes not - influence other to sell stock by making their views or research public. Firms like Viceroy or managers like Burry and Chanos come to mind. On the flip side, there are a lot of managers and others taking long bets who make their research or views very public to try to increase a share price. What should be remembered is this - the markets are short term irrational but long term rational.
3. Using conspiracy theory logic to form opinions on how "Wall Street" works. By this I mean extrapolating any proven instances of market manipulation to form the conclusion that the whole market is rigged. It's like finding an inconsistency in some detail about 9/11 or the Apollo Expedition and from that derive that 9/11 was a government inside job or that the moon landing was fake. Yes, there are attempted and successful manipulations happening on the markets, in both directions, and it is often illegal. The game stop short squeeze was an entertaining manipulation of the markets (at least for us on the outside). But this doesn't mean that every time the stock I own goes down it must be due to some sinister agenda.

A lot more could be written but it in summary it seems to me as part of what is wrong with social media in general - everything is put in black and white, something is 100% good or 100% bad and there is little room for nuances or source criticism.
 
It's been a while since FUD is this thick...

1. Elon didn't use shared backed margin loan to buy twitter, originally that was the plan, but that part was changed later on. This fortune article has a break down of how the funding for twitter purchase works, it did not include any Tesla share backed loans.

2. In 2023, Tesla board enacted new policy that limits the total loan amount Elon can collateralize with his stake at the lesser of $3.5 billion or 25% of the value of the stock. Should be obvious that he can pay back the $3.5B easily no matter what.
Thank you for clarifying!