Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chartered321]

What if... Instead of producing model 2 cars with implied lower margins Tesla buys them from the chinese EVs makers and retrofit them with chips and cameras to build the RT fleet? Missing puzzle pieces are a compact car and a van for a reason. The opportunity here are miles driven under FSD. So here comes the new strategy

 

[2daMoon]

I do not know. I would make the decision at that time. Too many variables to make a predetermined decision.

*We* have always been aware Elon would/could leave at some point. Initially, the thought process was after high volume/low cost vehicle. And there was a period of time where some people started to panic around Model 3 timing. Elon categorically said at that point he was staying. Factually, a lot changed along the way and to that point.

Currently, I am of the opinion he stays until he’s ready to go to Mars. Too much needs to be done that he didn’t at first realize nobody else was going to do, and a lot more has changed along the way. In no way do I think he’ll leave over something like being fed up or shareholders voting against a compensation package. That’s not how I’ve ever seen Elon operate or react.

Here's how I see it...

Elon's To Do LIst :

Accelerate the transition to renewable energy​

Make BEVs the only reasonable choice for buyers​

Make Energy storage products to assist renewable energy sources​

Make Batteries to support both of the above​

​

Make Artificial Intelligence work for mankind in a safe and spectacular way​

Create self-driving cars to save lives and sanity​

Create humanoid robots to do the dangerous, repetitive, and boring jobs​

Create AI tools to find solutions to the hard problems (i.e.: the ultimate answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything)​

Create the fastest, most comprehensive compute resources for AI development​

Make cars that gather so much data for AI that it boggles the mind​

​

Make the human race a space-faring, multi-planetary species​

Create reusable rockets​

Create bigger, less expensive reusable rockets​

Mass produce bigger, less expensive reusable rockets at a ridiculous pace​

Create a satellite-based network that provides a single, worldwide communications link​

Make space exploration and colonization affordable and practical​

​

Make life better for people​

Create faster ways to bore tunnels​

Use tunnels to avoid mind-numbing traffic​

Create a brain-computer interface to help a wide range of medical issues​

Create a social media platform that is designed to avoid bias in favor of any particular point of view​

Make memes​

Vanquish bullies​

​

...​

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...​

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...​

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...​

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increase my personal wealth​

 

[Usain]

What if... Instead of producing model 2 cars with implied lower margins Tesla buys them from the chinese EVs makers and retrofit them with chips and cameras to build the RT fleet? Missing puzzle pieces are a compact car and a van for a reason. The opportunity here are miles driven under FSD. So here comes the new strategy

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Tesla make a deal with BYD to put FSD in its cars.

But I think it's far-fetched to think that Tesla would outsource the manufacture of dedicated robotaxis.

 

[insaneoctane]

Once we get through this valley of death, there should be a lot of money moving from overbought stocks into the oversold one(s).

I'm not normally a seeking alpha fan, but this article had some good data.

Source: Magnificent 7: Earnings Preview (SA Quant)

 

[2daMoon]

What if... Instead of producing model 2 cars with implied lower margins Tesla buys them from the chinese EVs makers and retrofit them with chips and cameras to build the RT fleet? Missing puzzle pieces are a compact car and a van for a reason. The opportunity here are miles driven under FSD. So here comes the new strategy

Mostly because it isn't a retrofit job. The vehicle has to have been designed to support autonomy with networked components for steering, brakes, motors, and everything else monitored or controlled by FSD.

Tesla can (and will) partner with companies to collaborate on making their vehicle designs ready for Tesla's AI hardware and Sensors.

 

[GOVA]

12.3.4 is about the same or slightly better than 12.3.3 for me.

Is your experience with V12.3.4 worse than V10 and V11?

I only had V11 for a few days in a loaner. It was not good in city. Decent on the why.
I meant that 12.3.3 worked GREAT for me. 12.3.4 is much worse. I'll disable it for now.

 

[philw1776]

Currently, I am of the opinion he stays until he’s ready to go to Mars. Too much needs to be done that he didn’t at first realize nobody else was going to do, and a lot more has changed along the way. In no way do I think he’ll leave over something like being fed up or shareholders voting against a compensation package. That’s not how I’ve ever seen Elon operate or react.

I also hope he stays until ready to "Get yo' *** to Mars!" time.
However, I disagree about how you framed your leaving over shareholder vote scenario. Elon said, paraphrased, that he nees the shares because he believes it is vitally important to work on AI and unless he has a significant minority position such that he and his allies control >50% he cannot control the direction Tesla's AI takes. This is a fundamental issue to him. No full control of Tesla AI direction means he looks elsewhere.
I believe the stock will tank if he leaves & I will lose my expected gains.

 

[ggies07]

What if... Instead of producing model 2 cars with implied lower margins Tesla buys them from the chinese EVs makers and retrofit them with chips and cameras to build the RT fleet? Missing puzzle pieces are a compact car and a van for a reason. The opportunity here are miles driven under FSD. So here comes the new strategy

Well, from an engineering prospective, Tesla makes the safest cars, so why would they use someone else's?

 

[RobDickinson]

The stocks tanked already Elon himself is probably suppressing a significant portion of sales

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Yeah I agree I worry that with the stock price taking a huge dump, people aren't happy with Elon. Like it could get to the point that the stock price is maybe at halfway to a third of what Elon's compensation package top target. That's a REALLY hard justification to give him the equity package, especially because that would give credence to the idea that the stock price ran up temporarily due to the pandemic.

I've wondered about that. What was the top price target, split adjusted? The covid stock bubble was a huge factor.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Believe it. I do. 12.3.4 is bad.

Absolutely.

 

[jerry33]

12.3.4 is about the same or slightly better than 12.3.3 for me.

Is your experience with V12.3.4 worse than V10 and V11?

It's much better than V10 and V11. I never had 12.3.3, so no comparison there. It does things that I wouldn't do, but not as many as V10 (which was unusable in town) or V11 (which was somewhat usable in town). Haven't taken a road trip with 12.3.4 yet so no comparison, but V11 was 90% fine on highways (the 10% was unnecessary "changing lanes to follow route" and bad speed limit data (50 mph in a 70 zone, 35 mph in a 65 zone).

 

[2daMoon]

No full control of Tesla AI direction means he looks elsewhere.
I believe the stock will tank if he leaves & I will lose my expected gains.

This in no way implies Elon would leave Tesla.

It would be unusual, but, he might step out of his comfort zone and consider managing the AI concern from within another company.

Tesla sells their AI stake to X.ai for a dollar, with contractual rights for X.ai priority support for Tesla's AI-dependent projects, for a negotiable fee.

AI is safe, FSD and Optimus rock on, Tesla's AI-based products take over the world, gains are astronomical, problem solved.

The AI team could just stay at their desks at Tesla, on loan from X.ai

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I only had V11 for a few days in a loaner. It was not good in city. Decent on the why.
I meant that 12.3.3 worked GREAT for me. 12.3.4 is much worse. I'll disable it for now.

Yah. We did the same. 12.3.4 was better than the last version of 11. But its errors are more “fatal” I guess we’ll say. Way too much drama. We have disabled it as well. Too much drama. 12.3.3 was amazing.

 

[RobDickinson]

Tesla sells their AI stake to X.ai for a dolla

So a decade of work and billions in people and hardware etc sold for a dollar? I think we'd see some court action over that!

 

[Chartered321]

Well, from an engineering prospective, Tesla makes the safest cars, so why would they use someone else's?

Cars are a pain to produce for a Ferrari EBIT margin of max 28-30%. Software is 60-70% EBIT margin. So at some point you decide where to allocate your resources and skills. Wanna compete with Chinese batteries and manufacturing or go 100% silicon valley software?

 

[RobDickinson]

So have they finished their mission? Tesla has never been about software primarily.

 

[2daMoon]

So a decade of work and billions in people and hardware etc sold for a dollar? I think we'd see some court action over that!

If the contract for the sale stipulates that no change resulting in harm occurs due to Tesla's access to and use of AI in their products, both now, and in the future, what would be the nature of the injury to Tesla or the shareholders brought in the court action?

There would need to be an injured party.

Explain the nature of the injury, after determining without any doubt that it could not be addressed in the terms of the contract that places the AI resources in safe hands while assuring Tesla beneficial use of the resource in perpetuity.

Only the source of the AI engineering changes from public to private.

 

[RobDickinson]

So today Elons stance is teslas value is based on its AI (and IP of) and your ok with giving that away to a private company?

 

[hobbes]

But isn't that just based on the report a few weeks ago saying they were at a 1000/week run rate for 4680 Cybertruck packs?

Do we have indications that the CT run rate is also around 1000/week? Can we assume that the limiting factor is the number of packs produced?

Troy also posted a VIN chart which supported 1000/week, see above:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

It is hard to say because we don't 100% know what the bottleneck is ... There are estimates that there were 500 Cybertrucks staged on site last week... The bottleneck seems to be the new CT end-of-line building on the west side, one out of 3 doors currently seems to be working.. They seem to...

teslamotorsclub.com

Hope he´ll update that now that production is back up again.