Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chartered321]

I can see what Elon is thinking: now that Tesla is profitable with 2m cars run rate they can stop growing the production YOY of the car company (hello analysts and bankers, yes that's the old Tesla, so you're somewhat right... until now) and switch completely into being a software company outsourcing the production (with the related tooling for automation) and licencing FSD. It's a win win situation for everyone. It will stop the competition and the hate and give every car company a top up in revenues. No brainer...

 

[2daMoon]

View attachment 1039756

So have they finished their mission? Tesla has never been about software primarily.

Do you actually believe that software won't be involved in accelerating the transition?

 

[RobDickinson]

Afik they bought in some anode/cathode material and done a pushed week for those cells , idk if they can support 1000 cars a week every week but thats only 1/5th of the production rate they are planning for the CT anyhow

 

[RobDickinson]

Do you actually believe that software won't be involved in accelerating the transition?

Not on its own it wont. And you are suggesting they give that away for a dollar?

 

[uscbucsfan]

I think it is a great idea, but you seem to not be able to discern between the engineering of AI and the application of AI.

Tesla won't be without AI, AI based margins on it products, or in any way harmed by this.

Please, if you can conceive of some more detailed example of how Tesla or the shareholders will be harmed by something like this, spell it out.

Or, just keep lashing out with fear, uncertainty, and doubt if the concept is too much trouble to think your way through in enough detail to understand how it could work.

There's no hint that this would happen and it would need Board approval and likely shareholder approval. This isn't something that Elon could just whip up and do by himself. At that point, the pros and cons or consequences could be discussed, but it would absolutely reduce the value of Tesla's stock.

 

[Eugene Ash]

James Cat says this about that data:

I agree with his sentiment here. What information we have on FSD isn't very good. Both the qualitative and quantitative data are unreliable.

Concerning the tracker, look at the home page. It's showing that for "City Distance to Critical Disengagement", V12.3.4 is worse than most versions of V10 and V11. I find that very hard to believe.

I just wish I could sit down with Ashok for 5 minutes so he could answer my questions.

Anecdotal, but 12.3.x had a change that has me puzzled on the end of the auto-pilot navigation, on how to turn it off. Now in 100% of the cases the action prompts the "Autopilot disengaged - what happened" prompt as if there is a problem. There is no problem, I just want to back it up into my garage. I have gone from 50/50% frequency to 80/20 frequency of preferring to use auto-pilot and listen to podcasts. 20% is for fun twisty roads which I prefer to drive enthusiastically.

FSD went from "I can't take a roundbout" to smooth merging into 1 lane after a tricky intersection. I drive it on chill, so sometimes it is still a bit undecisive, confusing other drivers, and biggest criticism is taking the wrong lane, but in v12.3.x eliminated 80% of these wrong lane situations. This is very reassuring progress, and it is also polite (i drive in Chill). With the drive by wire, it model 2 doesn't have to be an either/or option. It can be both, and the wheel could be removed way more easily than in conventional shish kebab arrangement.

 

[Gigapress]

If robotaxi and autonomy don't work, Tesla will pivot back to consumer cars. It is not that big of a deal if you can look past a year or two. This company's ability to pivot quickly is one of its greatest strengths. The first several years were a "burning dumpster fire of stupidity," according to the CEO. They had to scrap the entire original business plan, fire the original CEO, and start over while also running out of money and staring down the Great Financial Crisis. In the end it worked out fine.

Even if all Tesla did was to take the current level of vehicle and manufacturing tech and spread it across a wider array of vehicle type, let the supercharger and service network grow, and increasingly advertise, they still would win. There is no one else. Need I remind the community that still today in 2024 NO ONE ELSE has disclosed positive profitability on EVs, not even BYD who lump their BEV numbers in with plug-in hybrids? That BEV competitors saw significant sales declines and announced major cancellations and postponements of their lofty BEV growth ambitions shortly after Tesla reduced prices? The robotaxi's form and architecture will be quite different from that of a consumer vehicle, but most of the Gen 3/Investor Day technology will probably be in there, and lessons learned will largely carry over to other types of vehicles.

Tesla has such a limited lineup. The styling of the 3 and Y look almost identical. Tesla doesn't have a large SUV, hatchback, van, minivan, small sedan, or traditional pickup. The paint menu does not include many of the most popular car colors. Considering that Tesla leads in every segment they currently participate in, the growth opportunities are obvious. Tesla is approximately even with Toyota in California, off of almost entirely Y and 3 sales. This demonstrates that Tesla can achieve nearly 20% overall share of a major automotive market, despite a comparative dearth of offerings. Having a simple lineup and few options is good while growing and learning, but in the long run and at larger scale, it makes sense to offer a variety of more specialized options, like everyone else has done. So, if Tesla decides to bet on this side quest for now, it's minor risk with potentially huge reward. I am not especially concerned, because they have plenty of money and competitive advantages to fail and go back to the original plan.

 

[2daMoon]

There's no hint that this would happen and it would need Board approval and likely shareholder approval. This isn't something that Elon could just whip up and do by himself. At that point, the pros and cons or consequences could be discussed, but it would absolutely reduce the value of Tesla's stock.

Absolutely correct. It would have to be win, win, win for everyone.

AI development is as safe or safer than it would be with Elon having 25% voting rights - WIN

Tesla would have priority access to the AI team and they would keep doing what they do now, only as a private entity contracted to Tesla. - WIN

Shareholders would continue to see growth in AI development, AND, have been a part in keeping AI development safe for everyone by moving control of the engineering to a private entity. - WIN

Explain just how, in particular, doing this would lead to Tesla's stock value being reduced over the long term?
(granted, if Elon sneezes or farts it can affect the SP in the short term)

Perhaps you don't have a grasp of the nature of contract. Anything can be agreed upon and all parties roles defined as well as protections for all parties' concerns when written into a well designed contract.

Start listing the specific concerns you believe could not be addressed in contract that would lead to these consequences that worry you.

 

[Gigapress]

Just curious...is there anyone who still thinks Tesla should have initiated share buybacks instead of saving all their surplus cash?

 

[Eugene Ash]

Crooks are not driving the stock down. The EV market has stalled, and Tesla's prospects have massively changed with the delay of the next gen car. It's tough for a stock to maintain a high multiple when its growth prospects dim or are pushed way out. Remember when Tesla was at $400 and earnings were supposed to be $10 by now? 40X seemed reasonable then. Now it doesn't. In fact 2024 earnings which will be lucky to hit $2.50. Tesla is at 60X now. Entirely rational investors are thinking 60X is too high and the stock is acting accordingly. These are facts, as you like to say. Crooks have nothing to do with it.





Who's being emotional?

PE for TSLA is 35, and ~37 for MSFT, and 25 for S&P 500 basket. By these measures TSLA is a screaming buy, as it is definitely not 60x.

 

[Knightshade]

PE for TSLA is 35, and ~37 for MSFT, and 25 for S&P 500 basket. By these measures TSLA is a screaming buy, as it is definitely not 60x.

Are you doing that thing where you're pretending the huge multi-billion tax valuation in Q4 isn't a one-off that should be backed out when computing PE?

 

[MC3OZ]

As I see things:-

• Investing = long term horizon = low stress
• Speculation = short term horizon = high stress
• Tesla + Elon + Speculation = world of pain

Bulls are not claiming that Elon is perfect, merely that he is persistent.

He will attempt things that no one will try, and he can seem wrong for a very long time, before he is eventually right. Should he be proven right, there is usually a big pay off, but that doesn't follow a fixed schedule, it happens when all problems are solved.

Occasionally he is wrong, it can take him a while to realise that but when he does, he admits it, and quickly pivots.

Elon will also make things seem like more of a drama than they really are, that is probably to pump himself up to throw a lot of time and energy at the problem. But if you are a short term speculator, he is usually going to say the exact opposite of what you want him to say.

My hunch is that the Robotaxi is being built via the unboxed method, there is not a big market in the US for a compact 2 seat or 4 seater vehicle. The IRA or any change of US government isn't a major factor.

The market for the compact cars is mainly EU, Asia South America and similar locations.

if the unboxed method works for the Robotaxi, it will work for other vehicle types, they haven't forgotten how to make cars.

The simplistic assumptions with the staff cuts is that 10% more resources are being allocated to FSD and everything else moves 10% slower. It is really X%, and X% might be a lot more than 10%.

We want to shorten the timeframe in which Elon is wrong, and we should be happy that resources are being allocated to shorten that timeframe.

Robotaxis should be rolling off the Austin production line around June 2025, so my guess is that Elon hopes everything else needed for a working Robotaxi fleet is ready by then.

 

[Robertj]

For a more detailed approach to 12.3.4 vs prior I suggest you look here . The guy is an Uber driver 49 trips on latest version 90 % to critical DE same as 12.3.3

Robotaxi (CYBRLFT)

www.teslafsdtracker.com

 

[kabin]

PE for TSLA is 35, and ~37 for MSFT, and 25 for S&P 500 basket. By these measures TSLA is a screaming buy, as it is definitely not 60x.

Depending on the source, TSLA TTM PE is 35 and fwd is 41. Tech including MSFT are dropping these days. Sounds more like a screaming sell.

 

[Snerruc]

FYI. Joe T said during his video today that Cybertruck is at 8 every 10 minutes. That’s about 50 per hour.

 

[kabin]

As I see things:-

• Investing = long term horizon = low stress
• Speculation = short term horizon = high stress
• Tesla + Elon + Speculation = world of pain

Bulls are not claiming that Elon is perfect, merely that he is persistent.

He will attempt things that no one will try, and he can seem wrong for a very long time, before he is eventually right. should he be proven right, there is usually a big pay off, but that doesn't follow a fixed schedule, it happens when all problems are solved.

Occasionally he is wrong, it can take him a while to realise that but when he does, he admits it, and quickly pivots.

Elon will also make things seem like more of a drama than they really are, that is probably to pump himself up to throw a lot of time and energy at the problem. But if you are a short term speculator, he is usually going to say the exact opposite of what you want him to say.

My hunch is that the Robotaxi is being built via the unboxed method, there is not a big market in the US for a compact 2 seat or 4 seater vehicle. The IRA or any change of US government isn't a major factor.

The market for the compact cars is mainly EU, Asia South America and similar locations.

if the unboxed method works for the Robotaxi, it will work for other vehicle types, they haven't forgotten how to make cars.

The simplistic assumptions with the staff cuts is that 10% more resources are being allocated to FSD and everything else moves 10% slower. It is really X%, and X% might be a lot more than 10%.

We want to shorten the timeframe in which Elon is wrong, and we should be happy that resources are being allocated to shorten that timeframe.

Robotaxis should be rolling off the Austin production line around June 2025, so my guess is that Elon hopes everything else needed for a working Robotaxi fleet is ready by then.

That works for the private sector whereas publicly traded quarterly earning reports tends to put a monkey wrench in it.

 

[RobDickinson]

FYI. Joe T said during his video today that Cybertruck is at 8 every 10 minutes. That’s about 50 per hour.

IDK if thats what he saw but thats 8k a week, probably not tho as there is what 1 10 hour shift now? Even then at 6 days thats 3k , they are not doing that

 

[MC3OZ]

That works for the private sector whereas publicly traded quarterly earning reports tends to put a monkey wrench in it.

It is what it is.

Is Elon wrong, or are quarterly earnings reports the wrong metric for this type of enterprise?

 

[MountainRatMat]

FYI. Joe T said during his video today that Cybertruck is at 8 every 10 minutes. That’s about 50 per hour.

So you are saying 2,000 per week on a normal 40 hour work week?

I am skeptical but will keep an open mind.

 

[MC3OZ]

Semi
Incredibly slow roll out when they are not cell limited, should be using 4680's but they dont have the energy density. I understand this will be slower than cars but still...

How do you know they are not cell limited?

One reason Semi development has been proceeding at this pace is because they probably are cell limited.

IMO Model Y will eventually migrate to 4680s then 2170s more can be used for the Semi.

I can also see new prismatic LFP cells being built with the new CATL equipment being used for the short range Semi, Model 3 and Megapacks.

They are also doing a lot of testing and validation with partners in the trucking industry.

But the good news is I think they should have the cells for volume production of the Semi sometime in 2025.