Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

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So have they finished their mission? Tesla has never been about software primarily.

Yeah I think people are kinda losing the plot when it comes to this stuff, Tesla’s mission hasn’t changed.

Optimus is also not really a part of this, Tesla exists to accelerate the energy transition and that is nowhere near complete. For example, I believe the world has never consumed more oil than it does today. On the current path, it seems like “peak oil” still might not even occur this decade.

 

[AudubonB]

Site abbreviation / acronym glossary?

NIMBY I mean, Not In My Thread

 

[RobDickinson]

How do you know they are not cell limited?

One reason Semi development has been proceeding at this pace is because they probably are cell limited.

IMO Model Y will eventually migrate to 4680s then 2170s more can be used for the Semi.

I can also see new prismatic LFP cells being built with the new CATL equipment being used for the short range Semi, Model 3 and Megapacks.

They are also doing a lot of testing and validation with partners in the trucking industry.

But the good news is I think they should have the cells for volume production of the Semi sometime in 2025.

The CATL equipment will be for megapack production. I dont see the semi using LFP unless there are major changes to energy density. Even the current 4680s are not good enough.

 

[AudubonB]

I’ve never insisted the words ‘long term’ appear in the thread’s title. Whether you’re aware or not, whether the words appear or not, this has always been the long term investor’s thread. When it was two threads, and now as one combined thread; circa 2018.

Additionally, I’m not the only to have mentioned such to people over the years.

Well, one COULD assert the proximity between "Perpetual" and "Investors" settles any such debate.

Of course, to know the answer unequivocally, it would be necessary to ask the thread's owner/originator. Anybody seen him?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

FYI. Joe T said during his video today that Cybertruck is at 8 every 10 minutes. That’s about 50 per hour.

I wonder how many shifts. Eg, how many per day or week. Anyway, very cool news.

 

[MC3OZ]

The CATL equipment will be for megapack production. I dont see the semi using LFP unless there are major changes to energy density. Even the current 4680s are not good enough.

IMO - 500 Mile range semi 2170s, 300 mile Semi LFP, energy density should be good enough for 300 miles.

Even if LFP could only do say 270 miles, then the SR Semi would be 270 miles.

250 miles or 1/2 the range is the absolute bottom range limit.

 

[30seconds]

If robotaxi and autonomy don't work, Tesla will pivot back to consumer cars. It is not that big of a deal if you can look past a year or two. This company's ability to pivot quickly is one of its greatest strengths. The first several years were a "burning dumpster fire of stupidity," according to the CEO. They had to scrap the entire original business plan, fire the original CEO, and start over while also running out of money and staring down the Great Financial Crisis. In the end it worked out fine.

Even if all Tesla did was to take the current level of vehicle and manufacturing tech and spread it across a wider array of vehicle type, let the supercharger and service network grow, and increasingly advertise, they still would win. There is no one else. Need I remind the community that still today in 2024 NO ONE ELSE has disclosed positive profitability on EVs, not even BYD who lump their BEV numbers in with plug-in hybrids? That BEV competitors saw significant sales declines and announced major cancellations and postponements of their lofty BEV growth ambitions shortly after Tesla reduced prices? The robotaxi's form and architecture will be quite different from that of a consumer vehicle, but most of the Gen 3/Investor Day technology will probably be in there, and lessons learned will largely carry over to other types of vehicles.

why can't Tesla create a vehicle with a steering wheel and pedals? why take the all in bet on the software, regulatory approvals and consumer acceptance when a basic hedge would be to make the same vehicle with the controls?

Plus we are supposed to wait until August to find out if the company has made a massive change in the near term strategy?

This is like Apple stopping development of new iPhones because the Vision Pro is something only they could make.

 

[uscbucsfan]

This is like Apple stopping development of new iPhones because the Vision Pro is something only they could make.

There is no rumor that Tesla will stop making vehicles, just that they may not make a low cost "M2"-like vehicle.

 

[jabloomf1230]

I've also been thinking about this topic a lot.

My conclusion is that FSD (supervised) will continue to be $99 per month for a long time. But if you want FSD (unsupervised) it will be something like $299 per month. You will be allowed to take a nap. For that privilege, your $200 also pays Tesla to take on all liability for accidents while FSD (unsupervised) is active.

Furthermore, those who purchased FSD outright will also pay the $200 per month. Otherwise, you get FSD (supervised).

I know this all sounds horribly unfair and it goes against the spirit of Elon's past promises. But I think FSD (unsupervised) is easily worth an extra $200 a month to a large number of people. Also, for those with Tesla insurance, Tesla could charge dirt cheap rates for those who drive very few miles manually.

That's a provocative post. Assuming the the single car liability insurance offered by Tesla is $1200 per year or $100/month. What you are saying is that the incremental insurance charge for unsupervised FSD is $299-99 or $200/month. What you are saying in essence is that FSD unsupervised has double the risk.

 

[evermore]

Even if all Tesla did was to take the current level of vehicle and manufacturing tech and spread it across a wider array of vehicle type, let the supercharger and service network grow, and increasingly advertise, they still would win.

That sounds like a great idea, they should do that. Might even help advance the mission.

 

[Gigapress]

why can't Tesla create a vehicle with a steering wheel and pedals? why take the all in bet on the software, regulatory approvals and consumer acceptance when a basic hedge would be to make the same vehicle with the controls?

Plus we are supposed to wait until August to find out if the company has made a massive change in the near term strategy?

This is like Apple stopping development of new iPhones because the Vision Pro is something only they could make.

It's not an "all in bet". That is hyperbolic language that people keep using, despite it being untrue and despite the CEO having directly refuted it on X. "All in" means that if the gambit fails, the player is out of the game.

Also, I doubt we are going to have to wait until August to find out if the company has made a massive change in the near term strategy. This is likely to be the main topic on the conference call next week, and further discussions in the coming months. It seems like 8 Aug will be the detailed reveal presentation.

In all of this I have not seen any actual, verified confirmation that Tesla has halted plans for other vehicles. If that has happened I would appreciate if someone would let me know. In fact, when asked about whether the $25000 car had been cancelled, deprioritized or delayed on 7 Apr during a panel discussion, Franz Von Holzhausen slightly smirked and said "I would just say stay tuned. Don't always believe what you read." That sounds like they are hedged.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777029442935964066

 

[hobbes]

FYI. Joe T said during his video today that Cybertruck is at 8 every 10 minutes. That’s about 50 per hour.

Please explain your maths.. I get (60min/hr)/(8min/CT) = 7.5 CT/hr …

 

[mongo]

Please explain your maths.. I get (60min/hr)/(8min/CT) = 7.5 CT/hr …

60min/hr*(8CT/10min)=48CT/hr
8 every ten minutes, not a CT every 8 to 10 minutes.

 

[EQC_]

It's not an "all in bet". That is hyperbolic language that people keep using, despite it being untrue and despite the CEO having directly refuted it on X. "All in" means that if the gambit fails, the player is out of the game.

Also, I doubt we are going to have to wait until August to find out if the company has made a massive change in the near term strategy. This is likely to be the main topic on the conference call next week, and further discussions in the coming months. It seems like 8 Aug will be the detailed reveal presentation.

In all of this I have not seen any actual, verified confirmation that Tesla has halted plans for other vehicles. If that has happened I would appreciate if someone would let me know. In fact, when asked about whether the $25000 car had been cancelled, deprioritized or delayed on 7 Apr during a panel discussion, Franz Von Holzhausen slightly smirked and said "I would just say stay tuned. Don't always believe what you read." That sounds like they are hedged.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777029442935964066

Agree.

At least according to the biography (I haven't read it...I learn from here ), Franz was one of the folks that convinced Elon to do BOTH the Model 2 and the Robotaxi.

If Franz is still with the company, in good spirits, and smirking while he talks about the current situation, then I assume Franz is still happy with the direction things are going. There are probably many possible explanations for Franz's smirk and response, but the two easy ones are:

1. The $25K car (or some variation of it) is still coming, and in a way that Franz is happy with.
2. There was enough evidence for Elon to convince Franz to see things Elon's way and shift more resources to robotaxi

As an investor, I see either of those as good news.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm finding this in my small town too and there's probably only 5-10 Teslas (2 of which are ours) driving around. Places where 12.x struggled once and I intervened are not a problem the next time through. Interesting behaviour.

Stan Reynolds would have approved.

 

[hobbes]

It's not an "all in bet". That is hyperbolic language that people keep using, despite it being untrue and despite the CEO having directly refuted it on X. "All in" means that if the gambit fails, the player is out of the game.

Also, I doubt we are going to have to wait until August to find out if the company has made a massive change in the near term strategy. This is likely to be the main topic on the conference call next week, and further discussions in the coming months. It seems like 8 Aug will be the detailed reveal presentation.

In all of this I have not seen any actual, verified confirmation that Tesla has halted plans for other vehicles. If that has happened I would appreciate if someone would let me know. In fact, when asked about whether the $25000 car had been cancelled, deprioritized or delayed on 7 Apr during a panel discussion, Franz Von Holzhausen slightly smirked and said "I would just say stay tuned. Don't always believe what you read." That sounds like they are hedged.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777029442935964066

How do you interpret Elon‘s ‚balls to the wall‘ if not as ‚all in‘?

 

[LAexpress]

How do you interpret Elon‘s ‚balls to the wall‘ if not as ‚all in‘?

Balls to the wall means accelerating as fast as possible…

 

[mongo]

Balls to the wall means accelerating as fast as possible…

.. and not that you only have one airplane

 

[Artful Dodger]

What do you think Uncle Leo wants?

Leo wants dividends.

 

[Unpilot]

Everything I wrote was factual ( as you like to say), except the crook part, which is an opinion; but it is one shared by the vast majority of unbiased investors.
If that's the hill you're going to die on (in terms of reasons the SP is down 39%), so be it.

An opinion wrapped in an opinion....interesting.
And your style seems very familiar...for a new forum user....hmm.