Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Linkmeup]

Europe's supercharger fees for non-Teslas dropped

Tesla lowers basic charging fee for 3rd-party vehicles at Superchargers | electrive.com

Tesla has changed the pricing structure for its fast-charging network in Europe. The membership fee, which allows electric cars from other brands to be charged at Superchargers at a reduced rate, has been reduced from €12.99 to €9.99 per month. Alternatively, there is a new annual membership for...

www.electrive.com

 

[MD70]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781044576112775658

 

[Knightshade]

Yes and it appears one of the largest shareholders is against it. From his feed it looks like he's upset that Elon sold 1/3 of his shares.

Just for context though- he has roughly 0.75% of outstanding shares.

I mean that's obviously a lot for an individual, but it's not like he's gonna sway the vote either way unless it's darn close to a tie.

 

[Krugerrand]

So, honest question since I respect your experience and perspective with Tesla. If Elon elects to leave Tesla (for whatever reason - health, fed up, voting investors deny him the pay package, etc) - does your position on Tesla and TSLA change?

I do not know. I would make the decision at that time. Too many variables to make a predetermined decision.

*We* have always been aware Elon would/could leave at some point. Initially, the thought process was after high volume/low cost vehicle. And there was a period of time where some people started to panic around Model 3 timing. Elon categorically said at that point he was staying. Factually, a lot changed along the way and to that point.

Currently, I am of the opinion he stays until he’s ready to go to Mars. Too much needs to be done that he didn’t at first realize nobody else was going to do, and a lot more has changed along the way. In no way do I think he’ll leave over something like being fed up or shareholders voting against a compensation package. That’s not how I’ve ever seen Elon operate or react.

 

[Usain]

12.3.4 was a big regression it seems.

James Cat says this about that data:

So now, we must scrutinize and analyze FSD progress more than ever. And this is, of course, difficult to do with any precision bc Tesla does not share data. So we are left with qualitative data from individuals posting their experiences and videos, and crowdsourced quantitative data from
eliasmrtnz1's tracker.

I agree with his sentiment here. What information we have on FSD isn't very good. Both the qualitative and quantitative data are unreliable.

Concerning the tracker, look at the home page. It's showing that for "City Distance to Critical Disengagement", V12.3.4 is worse than most versions of V10 and V11. I find that very hard to believe.

I just wish I could sit down with Ashok for 5 minutes so he could answer my questions.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Keys thing to watch for is public data on FSD. Any major improvements will become apparent.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781005263132037431

IMO, this data is flawed; I wrote about this last week.

Recap… disengagement is a highly subjective decision. This helps explain the large decline on V 12 wide release. It should return after some folks learn to chill. But Chillability is not a reliable metric.

The only way to know for sure is to let it go free in a controlled environment, zero occupants. If it loves you… it will return unharmed.

So I’m clear, it’s not quite ready today, that I know of on the outside. But I think it will be really difficult if not impossible to hit 1,000 mi of zero DEs without expert drivers, or no drivers.

They must be tracking this with their own test drivers for a whole different picture. When 12 beta came out, it was nearly 500 mi between critical Disengagement even though we were still touching the wheel and not chilling at times.

So Ill put in a SWAG at 600-700 mi internally. If their trendline is steady, ya, I’d probably do the same and cancel the Model 2 for sale. Data is king.

 

[GOVA]

James Cat says this about that data:
.

Concerning the tracker, look at the home page. It's showing that for "City Distance to Critical Disengagement", V12.3.4 is worse than most versions of V10 and V11. I find that very hard to believe.

.

Believe it. I do. 12.3.4 is bad.

 

[Krugerrand]

Just noting the words "long term" do not appear in this thread's title as you insist.

I’ve never insisted the words ‘long term’ appear in the thread’s title. Whether you’re aware or not, whether the words appear or not, this has always been the long term investor’s thread. When it was two threads, and now as one combined thread; circa 2018.

Additionally, I’m not the only to have mentioned such to people over the years.

 

[Linkmeup]

So, I've been testing FSD regularly since I started it earlier this week and sending disengagement feedback.

Frankly, I know safety is important, but being a good driver goes beyond being a safe driver. It's, also, being a friendly one. I don't think FSD is a friendly one to the other drivers on the road. It seems its primary purpose is to ensure the people inside the vehicle are safe against everyone and everything else in its path from Point A to B.

 

[Usain]

Believe it. I do. 12.3.4 is bad.

12.3.4 is about the same or slightly better than 12.3.3 for me.

Is your experience with V12.3.4 worse than V10 and V11?

 

[XPEL FTW]

l'll be getting back that 39% when the crooks are done

Crooks are not driving the stock down. The EV market has stalled, and Tesla's prospects have massively changed with the delay of the next gen car. It's tough for a stock to maintain a high multiple when its growth prospects dim or are pushed way out. Remember when Tesla was at $400 and earnings were supposed to be $10 by now? 40X seemed reasonable then. Now it doesn't. In fact 2024 earnings which will be lucky to hit $2.50. Tesla is at 60X now. Entirely rational investors are thinking 60X is too high and the stock is acting accordingly. These are facts, as you like to say. Crooks have nothing to do with it.

You can continue to invest/divest by the emotional sentiment, but the deadman takes the pot. I raise you 139%.

Who's being emotional?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I don't think FSD is a friendly one to the other drivers on the road.

It started its training in California...what do you expect?

 

[RobDickinson]

Tom Randall visited Redwood Material of JB Straubel (please... come back!)

Tesla Co-Founder JB Straubel Built an EV Battery Colossus to Rival China

A first look inside the high-tech recycling machine that’s gobbling up the equivalent of 250,000 dead EV batteries a year.

www.bloomberg.com

He did , JB is on the board of tesla?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Is your experience with V12.3.4 worse than V10 and V11?

For me, it's still better than V11 overall, but when it makes mistakes they are really bad/dangerous. Didn't have as extreme issues on V12.3.3.

 

[Linkmeup]

It started its training in California...what do you expect?

Here's an example, of a few already that I've sent feedback on:

1. An SUV wanted to, incorrectly, get out of a parking lot and pass a double-line road where my Model 3 and it were stopped before a red light.
2. I come to a complete stop with 2 car lengths in front of me for the SUV to come through knowing that's what they want to do even though the signal was not completely obvious that they wanted to take a left.
3. FSD tries to move forward to get to 1 car length and cut off the SUV trying to get into the lane.
4. I disengage FSD and let the SUV through with a thank you from the passenger and driver.

Edit: The safest option is to let the SUV through and the friendliest. The safe rules-of-the-road option is to go up 1 car length and not let the SUV through because they're in the wrong and not following the rules of the road.

 

[Zero CO2]

I do not know. I would make the decision at that time. Too many variables to make a predetermined decision.

*We* have always been aware Elon would/could leave at some point. Initially, the thought process was after high volume/low cost vehicle. And there was a period of time where some people started to panic around Model 3 timing. Elon categorically said at that point he was staying. Factually, a lot changed along the way and to that point.

Currently, I am of the opinion he stays until he’s ready to go to Mars. Too much needs to be done that he didn’t at first realize nobody else was going to do, and a lot more has changed along the way. In no way do I think he’ll leave over something like being fed up or shareholders voting against a compensation package. That’s not how I’ve ever seen Elon operate or react.

Elon is mission driven ... all the cry babies worrying about their portfolios are greed driven .. WS crybabies GFY

speaking of being a crybaby ... WTF is my Cybertruck these defects and delays are unacceptable since my personal mission is to cease using petrol

 

[Krugerrand]

Crooks are not driving the stock down. The EV market has stalled, and Tesla's prospects have massively changed with the delay of the next gen car. It's tough for a stock to maintain a high multiple when its growth prospects dim or are pushed way out. Remember when Tesla was at $400 and earnings were supposed to be $10 by now? 40X seemed reasonable then. Now it doesn't. In fact 2024 earnings which will be lucky to hit $2.50. Tesla is at 60X now. Entirely rational investors are thinking 60X is too high and the stock is acting accordingly. These are facts, as you like to say. Crooks have nothing to do with it.

Disagree.

Who's being emotional?

I don’t know. You tell me because nothing said in that sentence was emotional.

 

[Mengy]

12.3.4 is about the same or slightly better than 12.3.3 for me.

Same for me, 12.3.4 doesn't feel much different than 12.3.3 did, it certainly doesn't seem any worse to me.

I'm still amazed how good it is on a daily basis. It makes me have a glimmer of hope they can get FSD to L5 by late next year.

 

[RobDickinson]

OK not posted in here for a while here ius my current view. I have no idea what tesla is supposed to be now or where it is going. Its mission statement seems as lost as the CEO. The big things planned for the future growth seem to have all but evaporated.


Cells/4680s
Terrible volume ramp, terrible energy density. What is the Berlin factory doing here? Looks like production was swapped to cells for the CT, fair enough but Austin was setup for structural model Y with 4680 and retooled? CATL and BYD have passed tesla by on cell manufacturing. Tesla was slow to start anything on LFP cells in USA and still doesnt look like they will make for vehicles, missing out on big tax credits.

Dojo
Massive faliure in terms of investment and outcome. Must have been billions wasted on this before buying yet more nVidia clusters.

Semi
Incredibly slow roll out when they are not cell limited, should be using 4680's but they dont have the energy density. I understand this will be slower than cars but still...

Roadster 2.0
Do I need to even say

$25k car
Put on a shelf so far back at Austin they had to extend the worlds longest factory to cope. Probably a fair chunk of $ spent on it already plus the Mexico factory etc. And now they are giving up investing in consumer vehicles. "Betting the company on FSD" again. They spent all that effort on 48v and steer by wire etc for this?

FSD
v12 has been impressive whoch is a nice change given the years of slow development but its come at a huge cost in terms of $ spent with nVidia and personnel, a decade of hard work and investment and now the product is valued at only $99 a month, half what it was and hurting every single customer who bought it outright.

To be fair there is actual light at the end of the tunnel here but the bigger issue is getting it certified for level 4 in multiple areas. Still a lot of 9's to march before that though and their entire strategy depends on this when at every point its shown legislators are negative on tesla and slow to make changes in this area. USA doesnt even have cameras for mirrors yet or matrix headlights.

Optimus
Depends on tesle AI, I actually think this is going ok for a potential product but who knows when it will be on sale or what it will end up being able to do.


Tesla was just too slow for auto, where they are always trying to develop a new platform and new ways of doing things without exploiting the platforms they have already fully.

 

[XPEL FTW]

Disagree.

Everything I wrote was factual ( as you like to say), except the crook part, which is an opinion; but it is one shared by the vast majority of unbiased investors.
If that's the hill you're going to die on (in terms of reasons the SP is down 39%), so be it.