Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

I don't think they have the margins. They did the maths and it's not working out. This is supported by Elon coming out in January and saying that, unless regulators stepped in, Chinese EVs will eat everyone's lunch. Then in February the Reuters article suggests the project was put on the backburner indefinitely.

That's not what Elon said:

Chinese car companies were the "most competitive" and "will have significant success outside of China, depending on what kind of tariffs or trade barriers are established," Musk said on a post-earnings call with analysts on Wednesday. "If there are no trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world," he said. "They're extremely good." https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ish-rivals-without-trade-barriers-2024-01-25/

As a reminder, Tesla is, in part, a Chinese EV manufacturer with 50% of the US EV market. The warning may also be that importing a Tesla could become cheaper than domestic production. Electric Vehicle Sales and Market Share (US - Updated Monthly)

 

[alexxs88]

So they did the math. And they thought the math on other products that seem entirely speculative -- or at best have entirely speculative timelines -- was better? Face it, major decisions are being made solely on impulse.

My personal opinion (having some involvement both in production and automotive engineering through the companies I own - small companies) is that there's no way they can make a car that makes a profit at 25000$. You look in a Model 3, where could they cut 40% of cost?

 

[hobbes]

8 every 10 minutes so 60 minutes in an hour. 6x8 = 48 per hour. You would have to ask him how he arrived at 8 per 10. I’m just the doofus. Of course I could have heard wrong too. Go look on UTUBE it’s still up. Also, they seem to me to come out in bursts.

Sorry misread your post as one CT per "8 to 10mins"

 

[alexxs88]

That's not what Elon said:

As a reminder, Tesla is, in part, a Chinese EV manufacturer with 50% of the US EV market. The warning may also be that importing a Tesla could become cheaper than domestic production. Electric Vehicle Sales and Market Share (US - Updated Monthly)

I think it's safe to say that not even Elon would demolish his own company's stock by not saying the word "other". I personally think there's some shenanigans going on with the other Chinese EV companies, stuff that Tesla doesn't have access to. Either they cut more corners or they're straight off subsidized by the government. Remember that auto manufacturing is a lot about the prices you get from your suppliers, I've hear that Volvo for example

 

[DarkandStormy]

You think 2.5 years is long term? Long term means decades of buying, DCA'ing, accumulating and never selling. If you want to gamble go to the Casino.

So this thread is apparently only for long term investors and long term investing is apparently defined as decades long. So this specific thread is for people, what, only who are under age ~50?

Your specific definition of long term is not everyone's. Probably best to keep that in mind.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Using a click bait "news" website as a source , well played that is conclusive proof!, why believe the CEO and the lead designer of the company when you have Fred! I hope you aren't making investment decisions based on your sources of information.

"Oh no, an outlet published a story I don't like, must be fake."

If you actually read it, you will see Fred notes the various different phrases of the "scrapped" or "cancelled" or just delayed indefinitely.

Elon said Reuters was lying. He did not specify which part of the story was false. And has been established here many times, Elon has a tenuous (at best) relationship with the truth.

So, hmmm...Reuters and Electrek reporting nearly the same thing, backed up with sources and codenames of the project...or the guy who flies off the handle a bit on Twitter with a history of stretching the truth?

Again, if he could specify which part of the story is false, that's one thing. But he didn't. Maybe we will get more clarity on the EC next week.

 

[mongo]

My personal opinion (having some involvement both in production and automotive engineering through the companies I own - small companies) is that there's no way they can make a car that makes a profit at 25000$. You look in a Model 3, where could they cut 40% of cost?

Backing into your assumptions:
25k breakeven / (1-40%) = $41.67k cost to build...
However, the average cost to build a Tesla over the entire lineup is currently a tad over $36k.
If that were the cost of their lowest cost vehicle (which it isn't) $25k requires (only) a 31% reduction. However, we know castings (like on Y) are cheaper than Model 3 stampings, non-domestic production is cheaper than CA/TX, a US made 60kWh pack gets $2,700 in credits, automation reducesvariable costs, and volume amortization cuts fixed costs.
Elon speaks often of the idiot index, $25k vehicle would have a favorable value for that.

 

[mongo]

So, hmmm...Reuters and Electrek reporting nearly the same thing, backed up with sources and codenames of the project...or the guy who flies off the handle a bit on Twitter with a history of stretching the truth?

When one article cites another, it's not surprising they say the same thing.
The only 'additive' thing in Electrek was "Electrek can confirm that the program, which was internally called ‘NV9’, was postponed, according to sources familiar with the matter."
"Postponed"

 

[alexxs88]

Backing into your assumptions:
25k breakeven / (1-40%) = $41.67k cost to build...
However, the average cost to build a Tesla over the entire lineup is currently a tad over $36k.
If that were the cost of their lowest cost vehicle (which it isn't) $25k requires (only) a 31% reduction. However, we know castings (like on Y) are cheaper than Model 3 stampings, non-domestic production is cheaper than CA/TX, a US made 60kWh pack gets $2,700 in credits, automation reducesvariable costs, and volume amortization cuts fixed costs.
Elon speaks often of the idiot index, $25k vehicle would have a favorable value for that.

31% reduction is huge. And they'd still need to show a profit, so it's probably closer to 40%. What automation? Do you really believe they can add significant automation to a car factory? Those are marginal gains at best. Remember that getting 30-40% cost drop is equivalent of climbing out of a BMW 3-series and into a low-cost VW.

 

[Usain]

FSD is a lot like landing rockets. It's a breakthrough technology that nobody will copy for a very long time.

FSD is also like landing rockets in that it unlocks profit opportunities that go beyond the technology itself. Just as landing rockets enables Starlink, FSD enables robotaxis and OEM deals.

FSD is also like landing rockets in that its development involves extreme financial risk.

With FSD, we aren't quite to the point where we can routinely land the rockets, but it's getting close.

Wouldn't you love it if you could go back in time and invest in SpaceX just before they started landing rockets?

For Tesla, that time is now.

 

[Ellec]

So this thread is apparently only for long term investors and long term investing is apparently defined as decades long. So this specific thread is for people, what, only who are under age ~50?

Your specific definition of long term is not everyone's. Probably best to keep that in mind.

For a company that is trying to change a whole industry that has existed for around 100 years long term means decades. Look at Amazon or Apple, if you got in early and held for 20+ years you would be very wealthy. Selling after a year or two on the first piece of FUD news is not investing. That's emotional trading.

 

[FastEddieB]

So this thread is apparently only for long term investors and long term investing is apparently defined as decades long. So this specific thread is for people, what, only who are under age ~50?

Your specific definition of long term is not everyone's. Probably best to keep that in mind.

“In the long run we are all dead.”​

John Maynard Keynes

 

[Ellec]

"Oh no, an outlet published a story I don't like, must be fake."

If you actually read it, you will see Fred notes the various different phrases of the "scrapped" or "cancelled" or just delayed indefinitely.

Elon said Reuters was lying. He did not specify which part of the story was false. And has been established here many times, Elon has a tenuous (at best) relationship with the truth.

So, hmmm...Reuters and Electrek reporting nearly the same thing, backed up with sources and codenames of the project...or the guy who flies off the handle a bit on Twitter with a history of stretching the truth?

Again, if he could specify which part of the story is false, that's one thing. But he didn't. Maybe we will get more clarity on the EC next week.

Again I will believe the CEO and lead designer over Fred who is a click bait merchant not a journalist. As it stands Tesla may have altered priorities but even that hasn't been confirmed. Don't let yourself get buffeted about with every click bait story when investing, look at the facts. Remember what Warren Buffett said: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

 

[FreqFlyer]

I assume Dojo 1.5 is Austin and Dojo 2 is Buffalo?

Dojo (1.5?) delayed at Austin

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/teslas-austin-dojo-data-center-behind-schedule-elon-musk-fires-construction-manager/

Dojo (2?) going in at Buffalo

Tesla to spend $500M to bring its Dojo supercomputer project to Buffalo factory | TechCrunch

Tesla will spend $500 million to build out its Dojo supercomputer in Buffalo. Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently called the project a "long shot."

techcrunch.com

Tesla recently laid off 14% of Buffalo's workers. Maybe this move helps Tesla keep its tax breaks with the city and state.

 

[Skryll]

My personal opinion (having some involvement both in production and automotive engineering through the companies I own - small companies) is that there's no way they can make a car that makes a profit at 25000$. You look in a Model 3, where could they cut 40% of cost?

That is what I thought back in 2017 about the model 3 at half the cost of a model S. I had to test drive it to believe it.

 

[uscbucsfan]

That is what I thought back in 2017 about the model 3 at half the cost of a model S. I had to test drive it to believe it.

The M3 is pretty bare bones compared to the MS. You can't cut too much from the M3, but that's why new manufacturing techniques come into play to reduce the cost further.

I'm still surprised the M3 Highland didn't use gigacastings, structural battery, etc.

 

[advocate8]

My personal opinion (having some involvement both in production and automotive engineering through the companies I own - small companies) is that there's no way they can make a car that makes a profit at 25000$. You look in a Model 3, where could they cut 40% of cost?

They aren’t great at hitting price targets. But they are @The best at innovative manufacturing and I have confidence in that part of the equation.
At the end of the day it was always going to be closer to $30,000. There is no magic to $25K. The point is adding a car in the lineup one level down from what we have or be forever condemned to whatever sales volumes mid- and upper-price range cars can hit.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Again I will believe the CEO and lead designer over Fred who is a click bait merchant not a journalist. As it stands Tesla may have altered priorities but even that hasn't been confirmed. Don't let yourself get buffeted about with every click bait story when investing, look at the facts. Remember what Warren Buffett said: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

There is truth to that statement but it's more broadly true to simply say a fool and his money soon go their separate ways.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I thought this was illegal

So notifying the Nasdaq does something? We've been doing it wrong all along!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/19/trump-media-alerts-nasdaq-to-potential-market-manipulation-from-short-selling.html

 

[replicant]

All I have to say is I mashed my pedal this am while it was plugged in and pressed as hard as I possibly could on it trying to slide it forward and it moved about 1/16” after about 20 seconds of this pressure. There is no way our pedal is coming off with normal use. VIN mid 4000’s delivery last week.

Part 573 Safety Recall Report

On affected vehicles, when high force is applied to the pad on the accelerator pedal, the pad may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to ecome trapped in the interior trim above the pedal

Number of potentially involved : 3,878
Estimated percentage with defect : 100%