Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

I get that's the supplier (so half my question was just my missing that bit- apologies) - but that doesn't say they did the assembly or caused the issue.... " the component assembly of the pad onto the accelerator pedal" seems disambiguated such that it's unclear if this is a thing the supplier does and sends Tesla as a whole unit, or if Tesla assembled parts from KSR at their own factory.

Am I also missing something that says that?

Well, the pedal assembly is a single part:

So, it isn't like Tesla receives multiple parts that they assemble themselves. (Or the individual parts involved would need to be listed.)

 

[mongo]

I get that's the supplier (so half my question was just my missing that bit- apologies) - but that doesn't say they did the assembly or caused the issue.... " the component assembly of the pad onto the accelerator pedal" seems disambiguated such that it's unclear if this is a thing the supplier does and sends Tesla as a whole unit, or if Tesla assembled parts from KSR at their own factory.

Am I also missing something that says that?

There is a line between pedantic and obtuse. [Edit: And I live on the optimistic side ]
If it wasn't a supplied assembly, the supplier would not be listed.
The filing calls out the assembly which doesn't have subparts

 

[hobbes]

Small (in the global scope of the turmoil in the Teslaverse) good news item for Giga Berlin: The water utility had threatened to not dispose of their waste water any more because they exceed the limits for certain substances. The concerned the municipalities that control it now voted to continue treating the wast water for now.

Background: The substance levels are part of a contract that Tesla made with the utility. Those were calculated for a mix of waste water from toilets and industrial processes. Because Tesla is now recycling nearly 100% of the process waste water, the percentage of the compounds from the toilet waste water has gone up and the concentrations are too high. So formally the utility is probably right, but logically they get less waste than planned, but the mixture is not right . Now they´ll just update the contract and (hopefully) everything will be fine.

Tesla in Grünheide: Entsorgung von Abwasser ‒ Autobauer sieht Verhandlungsgrundlage

Die Kommunen des Wasserverbandes Strausberg Erkner (WSE) haben vorerst für eine weitere Abwasserentsorgung von Tesla in Grünheide gestimmt. Die Entscheidung könnte auch für mehr Wasser in der Region um die Gigafactory sorgen.

www-moz-de.translate.goog

 

[Ellec]

This is what you get for $2500 a year from Mercedes-

Exclusive: Mercedes becomes the first automaker to sell autonomous cars in the U.S. that don't come with a requirement that drivers watch the road

Mercedes becomes the first automaker to sell autonomous cars in the U.S. that don’t come with a requirement that drivers watch the road.

The luxury automaker has become the first in the nation to start selling self-driving cars—at least those that afford riders a hands-free experience—to regular consumers. So far, the company has sold at least 65 autonomous vehicles in California, Fortune has learned through an open records request submitted to the state’s DMV. Select Mercedes dealerships in Nevada are also offering the cars with the new technology, known as “level 3” autonomous driving.

Drivers can activate Mercedes’s technology, called Drive Pilot, when certain conditions are met, including in heavy traffic jams, during the daytime, on specific California and Nevada freeways, and when the car is traveling less than 40 mph. Drivers can focus on other activities until the vehicle alerts them to resume control. The technology does not work on roads that haven’t been pre-approved by Mercedes, including on freeways in other states.

The sales mark a new echelon of autonomous driving available to the average American. Mercedes is the first automaker selling to customers to achieve level 3 capabilities in the U.S., with Tesla and others still offering technology at level 2—in which cars can perform specific tasks but require constant supervision from a driver.

So basically cruise control on a few roads, only if it's a clear day and below 40mph and if they turn it on. Im guessing this will be extremely limited and basically useless.

 

[advocate8]

Texas doesn’t respect Tesla. If they did they’d approve direct sales to consumers. Also when is the Tesla BOD going to tell us exactly how much money it’s going to cost annually to move the state of incorporation to Texas?

In practical terms, that doesn't matter. The state of incorporation will be Texas, come Hades or High Water. Regardless of the dealership laws, which will remain unchanged, and regardless of the fact that the state government hates EVs and is essentially an institutional climate denier.

 

[Daniel in SD]

In practical terms, that doesn't matter. The state of incorporation will be Texas, come Hades or High Water. Regardless of the dealership laws, which will remain unchanged, and regardless of the fact that the state government hates EVs and is essentially an institutional climate denier.

I've been curious how institutional investors will vote? I suspect they like the Delaware court system but I haven't been able to find any information about this.

 

[advocate8]

There's another angle to this. Is it really a game changer? There's already a plethora of options in the segment, the BYD looking very compelling given the battery size and price. I think people are overestimating the number of cars of this size they can actually sell. The Model 3 and the Model Y especially was bang on in the sweet spot of the single-car household. It wasn't the cheapest electric car, but compared to the smaller/cheaper ones, it could be the car to do it all.

https://ev-database.org/#sort:path~type~order=.pricesort~number~asc|size-checkbox-dropdown:pathGroup=.size-b~.size-c|rs-price:prev~next=10000~100000|rs-range:prev~next=0~1000|rs-fastcharge:prev~next=0~1500|rs-acceleration:prev~next=2~23|rs-topspeed:prev~next=110~350|rs-battery:prev~next=10~200|rs-towweight:prev~next=0~2500|rs-eff:prev~next=100~300|rs-safety:prev~next=-1~5|paging:currentPage=1|paging:number=10

That’s reasonable to ask, no question. What I do know is we’re in a situation where it appears we will have essentially the same product lineup in four years and our market share in each of those segments is sure to shrink as the competition will increase. Despite the endless talk about running the old school car makers out of business, some in the segments we ARE in are bringing good products to market. BMW and Porsche, right off the top, make high quality EVs, getting better at it and are coming in with smaller EVs and have more in the works. The question is, do we want to sit in that niche and compete with them? That’s a sharp cap on sales volume, and as to margin, that’s going to stay lean from here on.

 

[Singuy]

Is there a list of 'roads' that have been pre-approved? Sure sounds like a lot of legal mumbo jumbo in the event an accident should occur.

I believe it currently only works on all "yellow brick roads". The only place I am 100% sure these roads doesn't exist is Kansas. So YMMV

 

[Knightshade]

There is a line between pedantic and obtuse. [Edit: And I live on the optimistic side ]
If it wasn't a supplied assembly, the supplier would not be listed.
The filing calls out the assembly which doesn't have subparts
View attachment 1039932
View attachment 1039935

I realize I'm doubling down on pedantry- but Tesla has a number of assembly's with a single PN, some of which we know for sure Tesla assembles themselves.

Motors for example. Or the structural battery pack.

That said I expect you guys are right about this specific one.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Water/electric current under the bridge.

Convert shares in Elon’s bucket in question by judge to voting only shares. Return basis funds used to purchase them without interest. Therefore, finding reward or the pony under all the horse poo.

Then have us vote on a new set of new goals with the fine print that includes the judges stamp of approval so the legal judges going forward know our voting rights were kept in tact and we know up front what is at stake.

Discussion

I was a junior in high school (1967) at the time. A very good girl friend and I sat facing each other in her parents living room talking about moving forward in our relationship. I made a key observation at that time as I stated to her, “our relationship will never again, be what it was before.” Bottom line, we cannot go back and re-vote and “come out smelling like a rose.” The voters back then are not all the same today ~ opinions have changed.

Second, if done right, the board could right the ship with a clean slate by coming up with a new set of goals and objectives.

Simply put, this gives Elon the voting shares he wanted, and provides guidelines beyond where we are today.

Caveat ~ nothing said here will ever come to pass, just food for thought.

 

[MP3Mike]

I realize I'm doubling down on pedantry- but Tesla has a number of assembly's with a single PN, some of which we know for sure Tesla assembles themselves.

Motors for example. Or the structural battery pack.

Yeah, but who is the supplier for those assemblies? Tesla. (Not the bearing supplier, or the magnet supplier, or the gear supplier, or the circuit board supplier, etc.)

They wouldn't list an outside company as the supplier for the motor even if the parts came from other companies, because those companies didn't supply the assembly. But they might list the suppliers of the sub-components if it was relevant to the recall.

 

[MP3Mike]

Convert shares in Elon’s bucket in question by judge to voting only shares. Return basis funds used to purchase them without interest. Therefore, finding reward or the pony under all the horse poo.

I don't think that is possible, as Tesla doesn't have multiple classes of shares. And if they changed their charter to have multiple classes it would result in Tesla being removed from the S&P index funds, causing a huge sell-off. Certainly not what I want to see happen.

 

[growler23]

View attachment 1039756

So have they finished their mission? Tesla has never been about software primarily.

And yet....
Software has always been Tesla's main differentiator. People buy Tesla cars because they are iPhones on wheels - that means software.
Businesses buy Megapack installations because of Virtual Power Plant technology - that means software. Consumers love their Powerwalls making money for them via arbitrage enabled through Tesla software.
Tesla builds EVs at a profit against all odds because their Factory OS is one of the best. It's hidden from us, but it includes massive software and enables incredible per employee productivity.
Software in the form of autonomous driving cars may well reduce the hurdle (number of cars) that must be replaced to achieve the mission.
Software embodied in humanoid robots may someday replace a lot of human labor, freeing up more labor to work on the massive infrastructure changes needed to finish transitioning our grid for this mission.
Software enables Tesla's massive data advantage, driving synergies between the Supercharger network, Service center locations, and future sales.
I think you cannot overstate how crucial software was, is, and will be to Tesla's mission.

 

[hobbes]

In this whole discussion about Model 2 vs Robotaxi....I think what gets missed is that model 2 (even if produced) is not necessarily a market success in the United States. It may be a compelling value outside of the US where small cars are more prevalent. However, statements by Elon indicate that initial production happens in Texas, and thus target the US market first.

Model 2 plus true FSD (at least 10x better than current version) may be a success in the US. But if FSD gets that good, it seems like a better idea to prioritize Robotaxi given better margins.

But note that on the other hand, robotaxi market will be only US for a while. So would make perfect sense to use the same car for robotaxi (US) and small car (rest of the world).

 

[Curt Renz]

Today is a monthly options expiration day. More interest than a weekly, less than a quarterly. A review of overnight open interest and trading so far today, makes it appear that TSLA $150 would be the most likely closing target for big option writers with the ability to temporarily manipulate the share price.

 

[hobbes]

3 weeks into Q2 the registrations in the 6 real-time reporting EU countries are the highest they’ve ever been, which bodes well for the Q2 demand.
I also said the same for Q1 , but around halfway the quarter the registrations slowed down, as if there were some delivery disruptions or something .

Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 15 countries, majority of BEV market

Maybe nitpicking, but in Q1 the deliveries didn´t slow down, they only did not accelerate as much toward the end of the quarter as we are used to. So less of a delivery wave as was planned for a long time. That said, they had enough cars to sell even more, so if the demand had been there, they would have happiliy created another wave IMHO. As there were cars left over from production in Q1, that might affect deliveries early in Q2 positively (they used to have to wait for ships from China to arrive also for the Y). So to early to claim victory IMHO (not that you did).

 

[NicoV]

Maybe nitpicking, but in Q1 the deliveries didn´t slow down, they only did not accelerate as much toward the end of the quarter as we are used to. So less of a delivery wave as was planned for a long time. That said, they had enough cars to sell even more, so if the demand had been there, they would have happiliy created another wave IMHO. As there were cars left over from production in Q1, that might affect deliveries early in Q2 positively (they used to have to wait for ships from China to arrive also for the Y). So to early to claim victory IMHO (not that you did).

Not claiming victory, but relieved that there is actual data that the sky is not falling.

 

[hobbes]

That gives us some good information:

• That as of April 4th they had produced 3,878 Cybertrucks.
• That it wasn't a design problem, it was a supplier making an unauthorized change to make it easier on themselves to make the part.
  • "An unapproved change introduced lubricant (soap) to aid in the component assembly of the pad onto the accelerator pedal. Residual lubricant reduced the retention of the pad to the pedal."
  • The cost of the recall will likely be put on the part supplier, KSR International Inc.
• It took less than 2 weeks from the time the first customer reported the issue to Tesla issuing the recall.
• Neither collision that the FUD purveyors said was related to this actually were.

So according to @mongo here, we have to make this

• That as of April 4th they had produced delivered 3,878 Cybertrucks,

correct?

That would fit much better with @Troy ´s VIN plot which pointed to almost 5000 VINs assigned as of March 26.

 

[2daMoon]

That’s reasonable to ask, no question. What I do know is we’re in a situation where it appears we will have essentially the same product lineup in four years and our market share in each of those segments is sure to shrink as the competition will increase. Despite the endless talk about running the old school car makers out of business, some in the segments we ARE in are bringing good products to market. BMW and Porsche, right off the top, make high quality EVs, getting better at it and are coming in with smaller EVs and have more in the works. The question is, do we want to sit in that niche and compete with them? That’s a sharp cap on sales volume, and as to margin, that’s going to stay lean from here on.

Tesla seems to embrace the concept that if someone else is doing a good job of accelerating the transition with a product or service, there is no need for Tesla to duplicate the effort.

If Tesla can be innovating in areas where there are no others doing the job at an acceptable rate of growth, this strategy is better for achieving the mission.

 

[dhrivnak]

The M3 is pretty bare bones compared to the MS. You can't cut too much from the M3, but that's why new manufacturing techniques come into play to reduce the cost further.

I'm still surprised the M3 Highland didn't use gigacastings, structural battery, etc.

There are a lot that could be cut from a Model 3 starting with size as it is still on the large size for most sedans. Think Corolla or Civic. Then basic audio, no rear screen no rear seat heaters. Possibly cloth seats. Smaller tires steel rims….. the biggest advantage I see is getting a car in the smaller segment size even if it need to be $30k rather than 25 it will fill a hole Tesla has.