Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Why would it have to have child seats as long as the user could mount their seats in the car?

Dan

Assumes a user without a car doesn't have child seats.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Assumes a user without a car doesn't have child seats.

OK, I guess I was just assuming that a young couple with small children would automatically get a car seat. It was certainly one of the first purchases when our kids were born.

Dan

 

[EVNow]

Do they have the I/O capabilities for that?

Summon.

 

[EVNow]

OT :

Assumes a user without a car doesn't have child seats.

Don't know about TX, but in my state the hospital won't let you go without a car seat.

 

[Krugerrand]

OT

Lol, one things for sure, I don't even watch Y&R anymore. I wonder how Victor and Nicki are these days...

Not even joking, turned on the TV to catch up with GOT and by chance Y&R was on - Victor still alive and kicking. Nicki wasn’t in the scene, so you’re going to be left wondering.

 

[Tslynk67]

I see so much fear and doubt going into this earning call. Somehow I am holding on and am at ease (perhaps made up my mind that I won’t sell until it goes to under 220).

I don't get why anyone would sell if the stock goes to its lowest point for years. Surely better to hold?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Where? I can't find it...

"As we pull into the Supercharger stall, our elapsed time from the Bay Area stood at 6 hours, 11 minutes, 359 miles. With 83 kWh used, we had 11 percent of the battery remaining—which equates to 41 more miles at the rate I was going. Right at 400 miles if you add it up."
​

So 11% remaining of an 100 KWh pack is 11 KWh. Used 83 KWh, therefore started with 94 KWh (at 94%).

Max rge would have been about 432 mi if discharged 100%.

 

[Tslynk67]

It is pretty obvious - they fixed the bottleneck in car charging cabling, now the SC bottleneck is wiring inside the battery pack.

Tick, tock ...

AFAICT, the higher charging speeds will apply to ALL MS/X via OTA FWU

 

[Krugerrand]

True, but I believe this certain group of customers is way smaller than the "let's buy the latest and greatest"-audience. Again, I think the spec bump is nice and necessary but it's a weird in between solution for a problem that doesn't *really* exist. At least not at scale.

Just speaking for myself, I certainly wouldn't buy a 75-100k car if a design refresh is right around the corner. I mean, maybe I'll like it even more than the current one? How am I supposed to know that right now?

We know exactly the direction the interior is going - less is more. I love that, but quite a few of the people who prefer the S, don’t prefer the 3 interior.

This is their chance to get the interior they prefer but with upgraded performance, range, suspension etc... specs. Just as there was the chance for people to get MR3.

Is advice; get while you can if this is your preference.

 

[Don TLR]

I like the interior design of the S and have never been a fan of the 3. The new long range motor with plus free Ludicrous upgrade screams buy me for those who were waiting. My thought was they would discount the original S when the refresh came out so was waiting and I think its a good move on Tesla's part to satisfy fans of the original design.

 

[Boomer19]

no that’s just the regular config page now

the S, for example
standard 68,250 (285 miles
long range 78,250 (370 mi)
P - 89,250 (ludicrous 20k) (345mi)

yes, the S is back to king of the jungle (even though it always was)

although the S homepage shows the picture of S
and 2.4 0-60 with 370 mi range which is misleading. bc the ludicrous model does 345, not 370
just sayin’

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Range comparison:

Sam Korus on Twitter

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm Aries and impulsive AF.

I knew an Aries once. 2nd dan black belt. Thankfully, not impulsive AF.

But seriously, if your impulsions mostly are correct then go with them. If not, have someone change your password on your trading account and not tell you.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

"As we pull into the Supercharger stall, our elapsed time from the Bay Area stood at 6 hours, 11 minutes, 359 miles. With 83 kWh used, we had 11 percent of the battery remaining—which equates to 41 more miles at the rate I was going. Right at 400 miles if you add it up."
​

So 11% remaining of an 100 KWh pack is 11 KWh. Used 83 KWh, therefore started with 94 KWh (at 94%).

Max rge would have been about 432 mi if discharged 100%.

I don’t think you can say they started at 94%. You aren’t taking into account the buffer, which is unusable.

 

[EVNow]

Here is the expectation as of today according to MarketWatch.

Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of $1.15 a share. That would compare with an adjusted loss of $3.35 a share in the first quarter of 2018 and a GAAP and an adjusted per-share profit in the two previous quarters.

Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others, seems to believe in a small profit for the company, expecting a loss of 78 cents a share.

Revenue: The analysts surveyed by FactSet are expecting quarterly revenue of $5.4 billion, up from $3.4 billion in the year-ago quarter. The Estimize forecast is for $5.9 billion.
​

AT 180M diluted shares - this means an adjusted loss of $207 Million. So, apart from any guidance, this is what will drive the SP post ER.

In Q1, EPS was a slight miss and Revenue was a slight beat. SP didn't react much to ER (except intra day because of CFO change).

 

[tivoboy]

I’m afraid we’re going to see another drop in S X production and probably deliveries. Also probably no update on the S X replacement timeline.

Want rally matter much as long as model 3 is strong.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don’t think you can say they started at 94%. You aren’t taking into account the buffer, which is unusable.

2 yrs ago it was reported that the BMS indicates 98.4 kWh of usable capacity plus a 4 kWh buffer for a total of 102.4 kWh.

Close enough.

 

[Remus]

The simplest reason makes most sense for me : it took a few weeks longer than expected and by then they had missed the window of making the switch early in the quarter. May also explain some of the weird shuffles in the S/X lineup in Q1 : if they had planned to switch over by Q1 but then had to extend for a quarter they may not have had the necessary components for continue producing the old S/X. So what do you do, when you know you can only produce half of what you intended to do? You take stock of what you can produce and stop selling models with the lowest margins. But then it turned out that by a combination of Model 3 being too good and S/X too expensive, demand fell so severely that they had to reverse course. So what do you do then? You make the higher margin cars a bit more attractive, for example by bundling more software options. Let's see what production guidance for this quarter is on the S/X. If my speculation is correct, that should quickly revert to levels from 2018.

Appreciate your words from before btw and no offense taken. We' re all very/too opiniated down here. Myself included for sure.

Great analysis!!
So this is still growing pain as they have only one factory. They have to do a lot of difficult maneuver due to this constraint.

So before Tesla has multiple factories in North American alone, we will probably see this kind of problems once in a while.

 

[Boomer19]

I’m afraid we’re going to see another drop in S X production and probably deliveries. Also probably no update on the S X replacement timeline.

Want rally matter much as long as model 3 is strong.

hmm so maybe i shouldn’t be too quick stepping into any long call positions that are earlier than 1 year out?

i’m just having a hard time seeing it trade in the mid 200s sustained, even though i think it belongs here for now. sometimes tesla news leads the tsla price and sometimes the market is in front of the news. which time is this? is what i’m grappling with.

 

[gluu]

Plans that run multiple years ahead are absolutely standard in this industry. I fail to see what is amazing about this.

This is a nice example of one of my bigger issues with this community. Whatever Tesla does, for some it is always somehow amazing. Take three year of planning ahead : amazing. Scrap something and do an emergency development : amazing too. It's the perfect mirror from the TSLAQ community where whatever Tesla does, it is certain to be worse than anyone else.

This is true, and thank you for being more rational. As a long, you have to be careful of your own bias. It is better to stick to the facts when it comes to Tesla, which can be sometimes be difficult because of Elon's "optimism." By now each one of us that would like to consider ourselves sober investors, who have significant experience decoding Elon, should always

1. Delay any release dates that he mentions, often significantly (Elon time is a thing)
2. Expect quarterly financials to be worse than the mostly rosy forecasts on this forum. (How many times have we all been disappointed?)
3. Expect that the job will eventually get done, most likely not as good as Elon says it will be, but not too far. (35k Model 3 essentially cancelled, but 39.5 SR+ is still insanely better than a 3 series starting at 40k)
4. Expect Elon to carry Aces up his sleeve. (e.g. FCA pooling agreement, OTA range upgrade for Model 3)

Despite Elon's outrageous sounding claims, he has a track record of over a decade of constantly delivering across multiple industries, usually late, and sandbagging some levers in case of emergency.