Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Again I think it depends. If the loss is around $250 million or less, and they guide for a profit in Q2, essentially they are guiding that they expect to be added to the S&P after the end of Q2. I'd expect buying under this circumstance

If they lose half a billion and guide for "maybe profits" in Q2, then they are essentially guiding that they will almost certainly not be added to the S&P this year, and I then expect the SP to continue to be a volatile ping pong ball for swing traders..

This goes along with your two scenarios, it's important to consider if the loss is due to delayed revenue (cars getting sold next quarter), or to actual unforeseen costs or loss of income which are never recovered...

I think once TN goes online, even the customer owned cars in the network would be mostly dedicated Robotaxis, instead of time shared family hauler.

For example if I am going put our car in the network, I would put it in there 24x7. I would summon one whenever I need a ride, instead of calling our own car back.

Car seat is a real problem, and Tesla need to solve it, this probably is the main factor preventing families from giving up private car ownership.

I can imagine a Tesla designed and installed car seat on dedicated Robotaxis, and when you summon a ride you have the option to chose one that has it.

Using a standardized, hard mounted, base would achieve that. People would then own their own baby carrier portion.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

OT Anecdote time. My wife was pregnant but there seemed to be discrepancies in the development, so we were referred for an ultrasound. This was in Oz, 34 years ago, so it wasn't just routinely done in the doctor's office. I drove to meet my wife at the ultrasound office, arrived quite early, and there was a shopping center across the road, so I wandered over and bought a baby capsule. We go into the ultrasound, the technician is chatty, "oh look, there's an arm, there's a leg, another leg... <silence>". Not another word from her. She leaves and comes back with the doctor. He said "There's a medical term for your condition: it's called twins." So we're both in shock. The only thing I could think to do was go back across the road and buy another baby capsule. The salesman just looked at me weirdly. "Yeah, I liked the first one so much I thought I'd get another one...".

(Twins were born two months later, 12 weeks early.)

Ha! Great story!

Dan

 

[oneday]

If TN only works to solve commuting and similar transportation needs to start with. It will work on every day that isn’t bring your baby to work day. Which in my experience is most days.

 

[AndyH]

Monday was thrilling. This feels more like a pulling teeth kind of day. Unpleasant but if it has to be done it will feel better once it's over.

Luckily the dentist had some nice toys in form of a S/X refresh for us to play with afterwards.

 

[Todd Burch]

Sounds to me like 2019 profitability is in question now as autonomy spending will be through the roof. Volatility fa evah!

What autonomy spending?

They're already paying their AP team...there is probably some HW R&D for the next gen chip, but that' probably not critical IMHO. Not sure what other big ticket expenses you see?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I’m afraid we’re going to see another drop in S X production and probably deliveries. Also probably no update on the S X replacement timeline.

Want rally matter much as long as model 3 is strong.

Umm... we got an update on the S/X replacement last night...

 

[MP3Mike]

"As we pull into the Supercharger stall, our elapsed time from the Bay Area stood at 6 hours, 11 minutes, 359 miles. With 83 kWh used, we had 11 percent of the battery remaining—which equates to 41 more miles at the rate I was going. Right at 400 miles if you add it up."
​

So 11% remaining of an 100 KWh pack is 11 KWh. Used 83 KWh, therefore started with 94 KWh (at 94%).

Max rge would have been about 432 mi if discharged 100%.

I don't think you can calculate SoC directly from the trip meter usage data, it isn't that accurate. They stated that they started with 370 miles of range shown on the screen. i.e. They started with a 100% charge.

Or are you saying that Tesla is totally lying, and that people are going to see 370 miles on the display when they charge to 94%? (Even though that is what the car is rated for on a 100% charge.)

 

[Remus]

Nobody worries about Europe? It's almost a month now no ship departed yet?

 

[PANN]

This just came up on my Chinese news feed, Google translate below.

Japan media: Panasonic will produce electric car batteries for Tesla in Japan

April 24th, Beijing time, according to the Japanese "Daily Industry News" website, Panasonic has decided to produce electric car batteries for Tesla in the factory in Osaka City.

The report said that after negotiations with Tesla, Panasonic will start new battery production by the end of 2019.

Currently, Panasonic only produces batteries in conjunction with Tesla at the Gigafactory plant in Nevada, USA.

 

[jerry33]

If TN only works to solve commuting and similar transportation needs to start with. It will work on every day that isn’t bring your baby to work day. Which in my experience is most days.

The problem I see with solving commuting is that that's the time you will want to drive your car so it won't be available for the TN during the time it's most needed. Only the Tesla owned cars (plus a few retirees' cars) will work for this.

 

[MP3Mike]

InsideEVs have a good explanation of cooling differences between Tesla's pack designs.

Biggest improvements of Model 3 vs S/X battery modules is parallel cooling ribbons instead of a snake which means that the coolant is in contact with fewer cells on it's way through the module. The cooling ribbons in Model 3 also has a much wider contact patch with the cells. Both improvements doesn't seem to difficult to implement in the S/X packs.

1st pic is S/X. 2nd is 3.View attachment 400127 View attachment 400126

Something to remember is that the cooling in the S&X modules was redesigned with the 100 pack. (As I recall they split the loop. I can't remember if it was in two or three pieces. So that it is more like the Model 3.)

Here are some details, it seems they split it in two: Pics and Info: Inside the Tesla 100kWh Battery Pack | wk057's SkieNET

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I think once TN goes online, even the customer owned cars in the network would be mostly dedicated Robotaxis, instead of time shared family hauler.

For example if I am going put our car in the network, I would put it in there 24x7. I would summon one whenever I need a ride, instead of calling our own car back.

Car seat is a real problem, and Tesla need to solve it, this probably is the main factor preventing families from giving up private car ownership.

I can imagine a Tesla designed and installed car seat on dedicated Robotaxis, and when you summon a ride you have the option to chose one that has it.

Or, if you are going to put your car on the TN primarily, and plan on making a sh** ton of money on it, why not purchase a car seat and install it. Then advertise on the network that your car comes with a car seat already installed.

I wouldn't think this should be something that Tesla would bother with. If I am going to rent a car today and I have a small child that I need to transport then I think it would be my responsibility to make sure I had the equipment and the time to install it to keep them safe. Maybe I am presuming too much?

Dan

 

[RobStark]

Using a standardized, hard mounted, base would achieve that. People would then own their own baby carrier portion.

And carry it everywhere they go in between Robotaxi rides?

Walking through the mall, supermarket, movie theater.....

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Not even joking, turned on the TV to catch up with GOT and by chance Y&R was on - Victor still alive and kicking. Nicki wasn’t in the scene, so you’re going to be left wondering.

Nicki is still kinda hot....and she’s still got issues.

Just sayin.

 

[HG Wells]

OT Anecdote time. My wife was pregnant but there seemed to be discrepancies in the development, so we were referred for an ultrasound. This was in Oz, 34 years ago, so it wasn't just routinely done in the doctor's office. I drove to meet my wife at the ultrasound office, arrived quite early, and there was a shopping center across the road, so I wandered over and bought a baby capsule. We go into the ultrasound, the technician is chatty, "oh look, there's an arm, there's a leg, another leg... <silence>". Not another word from her. She leaves and comes back with the doctor. He said "There's a medical term for your condition: it's called twins." So we're both in shock. The only thing I could think to do was go back across the road and buy another baby capsule. The salesman just looked at me weirdly. "Yeah, I liked the first one so much I thought I'd get another one...".

(Twins were born two months later, 12 weeks early.)

If she is already pregnant why would you need a baby capsule ?
Or is it something other than a birth control pill ?

 

[Tslynk67]

OT Anecdote time. My wife was pregnant but there seemed to be discrepancies in the development, so we were referred for an ultrasound. This was in Oz, 34 years ago, so it wasn't just routinely done in the doctor's office. I drove to meet my wife at the ultrasound office, arrived quite early, and there was a shopping center across the road, so I wandered over and bought a baby capsule. We go into the ultrasound, the technician is chatty, "oh look, there's an arm, there's a leg, another leg... <silence>". Not another word from her. She leaves and comes back with the doctor. He said "There's a medical term for your condition: it's called twins." So we're both in shock. The only thing I could think to do was go back across the road and buy another baby capsule. The salesman just looked at me weirdly. "Yeah, I liked the first one so much I thought I'd get another one...".

(Twins were born two months later, 12 weeks early.)

Been there, done that... (sorry, OT, but FA's happening today anyway)

 

[bdy0627]

trying to step into a few nov 315c if it stays relatively fixed today, and go from there. down more, add a few. down a lot over coming weeks, reassess.

also sell a few jan21 200p

any thoughts

I actually haven't checked this week, but I would assume premiums are up. Good time to sell, bad time to buy options. Keep the buying light for now, particularly since it seems unlikely that TSLA will make a big move up with this earnings report. Premiums should settle over next week. Those Nov calls will probably be less expensive next week, so it makes sense to keep the buying light right now. Of course, you never know.

 

[bdy0627]

OT

Teensey-weansey volume so far: only 200K in first 15 min?

Shorts are mostly sitting tight so far today. Big buyers are waiting.

 

[Nocturnal]

I still think Tesla needs to do a better job at educating potential customers. I'm sure you guys here the same things that I do.
"Teslas are for rich people"
"I love them but no way could I afford one"
"That's cool but what if I wanted to randomly drive across the country!"
"I heard Tesla is built on lies and will go under" (that one is fuddy)
"My neighbor's cousin had one but it took 3 months to get parts after it was wrecked" (sorta true)

Most people aren't really even exposed to FUD. Once in a while people ask something about them catching fire, but mostly it's regular old ignorance. These cars are objectively better than ICE counterparts in most every way. People don't know how safe they are, how much money they will save on gas etc. Start small with some cheap/targeted YouTube ads. I don't know.

Owners are their biggest asset as of now in terms of marketing as we are mostly fanatics. Can we get some really smart marketing guy to leverage that better? Maybe provide support for owners to go to local car shows or events. "If you go to a car show and show off your Tesla we will give you 500 miles of free supercharging, or credits towards new wheels". We do this stuff for free, imagine if we had a little extra incentive. My local club is having an event at a local winery this weekend and I'll be giving people rides (pre-wine of course). I know Tesla does support clubs a bit but it wouldn't take much capital or human resources to really push that side of things.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm holding a 282.50 Friday expiry - who know, ER might not be *that* bad and we might get an SEC settlement which could mix things up.

History is that I bought the 282.50 last week for $6, then when SP popped a bit, sold a 287.50 also for $6, covering any loss (minus $40 tradings fees). Then when the SP sunk yesterday I rebought the 287.50 for $1.5 to give myself a lotto play for end of the week.

Options trading can be fun!