Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Blue 1011]

Better get 'em while their hot. I have seen a couple of different videos that bring up an interesting thought. At what point does Tesla not sell cars to the public anymore? Granted this is based on several rather large assumptions, but if true Level 5 is achieved, and the Tesla Network truly does come to pass, and Tesla has created a huge fleet of corporate owned cars through lease returns, and their profit margins on the network use is what Elon claimed they could be at the Autonomy Day, then why would they want the hassle and turmoil that surrounds selling cars to the public? The profits from the network would be so huge that it would seem beneficial to just make cars without pedals or steering wheel and just make them as they needed to supplement their network fleet. Same goes for the truck. Make a truck that is nothing but a rolling bed with no cab whatsoever and then just put them on the network so people could use them as they need to haul something, get lumber, whatever you do with a truck. Tesla Semi? Boy, what could that do to the trucking industry if there were just a bunch of Tesla Semis out there for rent as shipping companies, or even private people needed to use them.

Might not be able to buy a Tesla at some point. I know...crazy, but it could happen. Something to think about.

Dan

Elon said at least twice during the presentation that the TN would be populated customer/owners. He said that Tesla would fill in the gaps with their own vehicles where necessary.

 

[printf42]

OT

I’m afraid we’re going to see another drop in S X production and probably deliveries. Also probably no update on the S X replacement timeline.

Want rally matter much as long as model 3 is strong.

I see what you did there.

 

[mongo]

Sorry, I don't follow. The TN cars would certainly still be able to accept child seats.

Dan

OK, I guess I was just assuming that a young couple with small children would automatically get a car seat. It was certainly one of the first purchases when our kids were born.

Dan

People with kids would own car seats. However, what they would not want to do is install, remove, and haul the seats along with the kids. Even the combo carrier type are two piece with a fixed base (I think). TN would also not want the liability that would come with people using other people's (or TN provide) car seats (plus gross factor). For example, the service centers will not reinstall the seats is they need to be removed. Add on the supplementary materials that kids require (that you need available but not necessarily directly with you) and there is a large market that wants their own car.

 

[SO16]

He did not offer me a job. He said people that contributed to the report (there were 3 of us) should interview at Tesla without even outlining a process how to do it (which is a very smart move actually). I inquired with my usual Tesla PoC and they said they will ask around if I am seriously interested in joining Tesla.

As a TSLA shareholder and owner, I would be ecstatic if you joined Tesla in some capacity. I think I read one of your tweets stating they don’t allow working from home and you didn’t care to move. Perhaps you could join as a consultant.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

although the S homepage shows the picture of S
and 2.4 0-60 with 370 mi range which is misleading. bc the ludicrous model does 345, not 370
just sayin’

They always cite the best specs across the variants. When I ordered my Model Y, the front page showed 300 miles *and* dual motor *and* the 0-60 for the performance variant

 

[Todd Burch]

I am thinking there's a good possibility that this is a buy the news event.

With the S/X refresh and Tesla's clear lead on the autonomy front, I feel like people are just waiting for this report's bad news to come out before they jump back in.

I FEEL like the awful news is priced in and the stock will start to rise after this CC...unless a positive way forward is not presented.

In other words, get the Q1 call out of the way, and look to the future...which is bright IMHO.

 

[KarenRei]

I am thinking there's a good possibility that this is a buy the news event.

With the S/X refresh and Tesla's clear lead on the autonomy front, I feel like people are just waiting for this report's bad news to come out before they jump back in.

I FEEL like the awful news is priced in and the stock will start to rise after this CC...unless a positive way forward is not presented.

In other words, get the Q1 call out of the way, and look to the future...which is bright IMHO.

There's one more "news" that a lot of people are waiting out, which is the SEC. Which we'll be getting a big update on soon - in all likelihood, tomorrow after hours. In all likelihood, either "we reached an agreement" or "we didn't reach an agreement", or possibly "we reached an agreement on some things but not others".

 

[Cloxxki]

I’m afraid we’re going to see another drop in S X production and probably deliveries. Also probably no update on the S X replacement timeline.

Want rally matter much as long as model 3 is strong.

The 6-figure car buyers will at least be more catered for end of Q2, but I would in their place now certainly not buy a older S/X unless discounted like crazy. And we do all know, more should come for S/X, they're supposed to be flag ships, not recycling units for long optimized low cost Model 3 tech.

When the dust settles though, will S/X buyers realize it's now a front wheel drive car with an induction appendage on the rear axle only for street racing purposes? If were in the market for such a car (I'd die for an S85 actually) I'd want it to have three of those PM motors. Two on a rear wheel each. That'd be neat. Also for torque vectoring. the lack of punchiness in 3PD (I heard few complaints) should be wiped away using 3x that 211 kW, surely?

 

[ZachF]

I am thinking there's a good possibility that this is a buy the news event.

With the S/X refresh and Tesla's clear lead on the autonomy front, I feel like people are just waiting for this report's bad news to come out before they jump back in.

I FEEL like the awful news is priced in and the stock will start to rise after this CC...unless a positive way forward is not presented.

In other words, get the Q1 call out of the way, and look to the future...which is bright IMHO.

If the Q1 loss is under $250m and they guide for profitability in Q2, I think that could be a positive surprise IMHO.

If they lose half a billion and guide for "hopefully" profitable in Q2, well that puts the chances of S&P addition this year to almost nil.

 

[Nocturnal]

Silver lining for this IMHO, is that expectations are dropping so low that Q2 could end up being a huge upward surprise.

That's my hope. "oh, ER isn't nearly as bad as we thought plus all the FSD stuff, future projects etc."

The 6-figure car buyers will at least be more catered for end of Q2, but I would in their place now certainly not buy a older S/X unless discounted like crazy. And we do all know, more should come for S/X, they're supposed to be flag ships, not recycling units for long optimized low cost Model 3 tech.

When the dust settles though, will S/X buyers realize it's now a front wheel drive car with an induction appendage on the rear axle only for street racing purposes? If were in the market for such a car (I'd die for an S85 actually) I'd want it to have three of those PM motors. Two on a rear wheel each. That'd be neat. Also for torque vectoring. the lack of punchiness in 3PD (I heard few complaints) should be wiped away using 3x that 211 kW, surely?

Why does that matter? As long as it still feels like an AWD that's what matters.

 

[AndyH]

It's more likely cooling. Model 3 pack made major advances in the internal cooling design, and the external supporting components are also much better.

InsideEVs have a good explanation of cooling differences between Tesla's pack designs.

Biggest improvements of Model 3 vs S/X battery modules is parallel cooling ribbons instead of a snake which means that the coolant is in contact with fewer cells on it's way through the module. The cooling ribbons in Model 3 also has a much wider contact patch with the cells. Both improvements doesn't seem to difficult to implement in the S/X packs.

1st pic is S/X. 2nd is 3.

 

[Sean Wagner]

I wonder if we'll get to the point where other auto manufacturers license the "skateboard" from Tesla and add value via body and interior design as well as different center console options (eg CarPlay). It reminds me of the old days of the computer industry when everyone tried to do their own unique design and finally gave up and built PC clones. In this case, Tesla is both Intel and Microsoft.

The old days of coachbuilders. There's a litany of long-defunct car companies who flourished by doing exactly this.

I'm just hoping for autonomous pods somewhat like the one mooted by Elon for the near-defunct Chicago boring project, as well as commercial vans. A truly huge market where firms know their routes pretty well and buy for the long term. Though the margins may be iffy, and thankfully, competition actually is not laser-frozen in a Bose-Einstein condensate.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sounds to me like 2019 profitability is in question now as autonomy spending will be through the roof. Volatility fa evah!

 

[ggr]

OK, I guess I was just assuming that a young couple with small children would automatically get a car seat. It was certainly one of the first purchases when our kids were born.

Dan

OT Anecdote time. My wife was pregnant but there seemed to be discrepancies in the development, so we were referred for an ultrasound. This was in Oz, 34 years ago, so it wasn't just routinely done in the doctor's office. I drove to meet my wife at the ultrasound office, arrived quite early, and there was a shopping center across the road, so I wandered over and bought a baby capsule. We go into the ultrasound, the technician is chatty, "oh look, there's an arm, there's a leg, another leg... <silence>". Not another word from her. She leaves and comes back with the doctor. He said "There's a medical term for your condition: it's called twins." So we're both in shock. The only thing I could think to do was go back across the road and buy another baby capsule. The salesman just looked at me weirdly. "Yeah, I liked the first one so much I thought I'd get another one...".

(Twins were born two months later, 12 weeks early.)

 

[Boomer19]

If the Q1 loss is under $250m and they guide for profitability in Q2, I think that could be a positive surprise IMHO.

If they lose half a billion and guide for "hopefully" profitable in Q2, well that chances of S&P addition this year are almost nil.

yeah i just can’t get my mind off of that 235-250 range. i think we’ll see it.
although past charts indicate a big bounce after such consolidation.
what i haven’t done was track specific events to those bounces, but there’s always some catalyst(s)...which are worthy of such a bounce this time? rather than continuing the downward trend, or holding steady in the mid 1/3 of 200s ?

a few are mentioned, but are they it? we’ll see

 

[mongo]

Sounds to me like 2019 profitability is in question now as autonomy spending will be through the roof. Volatility fa evah!

Autonomy spending has been high in the past. The dust is somewhat settling and they have a viable product for sale. Yes, they are doing another chip spin, but they also have $2k worth of AP bundled in every car, along with a 5k FSD option that has desirable features. Car volumes are also increasing which only improves the AP revenue stream.,

 

[ZachF]

That's my hope. "oh, ER isn't nearly as bad as we thought plus all the FSD stuff, future projects etc."

Again I think it depends. If the loss is around $250 million or less, and they guide for a profit in Q2, essentially they are guiding that they expect to be added to the S&P after the end of Q2. I'd expect buying under this circumstance

If they lose half a billion and guide for "maybe profits" in Q2, then they are essentially guiding that they will almost certainly not be added to the S&P this year, and I then expect the SP to continue to be a volatile ping pong ball for swing traders..

 

[printf42]

People with kids would own car seats. However, what they would not want to do is install, remove, and haul the seats along with the kids. Even the combo carrier type are two piece with a fixed base (I think). TN would also not want the liability that would come with people using other people's (or TN provide) car seats (plus gross factor). For example, the service centers will not reinstall the seats is they need to be removed. Add on the supplementary materials that kids require (that you need available but not necessarily directly with you) and there is a large market that wants their own car.

I think once TN goes online, even the customer owned cars in the network would be mostly dedicated Robotaxis, instead of time shared family hauler.

For example if I am going put our car in the network, I would put it in there 24x7. I would summon one whenever I need a ride, instead of calling our own car back.

Car seat is a real problem, and Tesla need to solve it, this probably is the main factor preventing families from giving up private car ownership.

I can imagine a Tesla designed and installed car seat on dedicated Robotaxis, and when you summon a ride you have the option to chose one that has it.

 

[M3Rider]

This Tesla not selling to the public has been mentioned 812 times. That simply doesn’t fit the plan nor Elon Musk’s style. He wants everyone to be able to afford an EV. EVERYONE.

In the end, like when all of us here are arguing on Hell’s forum and TN has taken over the planet, perhaps then people will simply no longer have a need to own a personal car but for nostalgia’s sake. But it won’t come about because Tesla ‘won’t’ sell an individual a car.

He wants everyone to afford, yes. But the supply will be very limited for the next ~10 years while Tesla keeps adding more GFs, which take time to build.
In this time of constrained supply, a TN car does a lot more for the mission than an individual car due to more miles driven and more ICE miles offset.
So, this is a very valid question and EM might be torn on how to address it.

 

[scaesare]

I think you’re forgetting that Tesla isn’t trying to do it all on their own. They’re trying to inspire others. Everyone else is taking the wrong approach in Tesla’s eyes. So, ‘here’s how you do it’.

This is how you build an EV
This is how you build a charging network
This is how you build a battery factory
This is how you do FSD

Somebody. Anybody. Copy us!!