Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SPadival]

Disagree. Problem being that the FSD still hesitates far longer than a human before proceeding. Drives like a 90 year old at stop signs.

Please lobby the NHTSA to re-allow a rolling, non-zero mph stop.

Tesla to disable ‘rolling stop’ feature after NHTSA says it can ‘increase the risk of a crash’

The update will be applied to nearly 54,000 vehicles

www.theverge.com

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Yes, but there has always been the wave effect in Europe as cars were loaded onto ships in Shanghai first half of the quarter to get delivered later in the same quarter - reduced both CN and EU numbers. This was smoothed-out somewhat in the second half of 2023, but not totally

This makes it a little hard to predict at this point even though the trend looks down

If only there was a person going through painstaking detail to track Tesla VINs and ships to make accurate delivery predictions!

 

[Singuy]

I wonder why AP crashes are an outlier. Probably because people would use systems from other brand once and never use it again.

Here we have Mercedes failing to keep lane on a very simple test. This is the system Consumer Report praised and rated it better than Tesla. Spoiler alert, Wholemars had to take over 10 times in 5 mins just due to lane keep assist, not even any of the actual FSD stuff like stopping for lights.

 

[MC3OZ]

BP wants to buy Supercharger stations, but Tesla hasn't agreed to sell, this is just an plan BP has.

 

[winfield100]

Please lobby the NHTSA to re-allow a rolling, non-zero mph stop.

Tesla to disable ‘rolling stop’ feature after NHTSA says it can ‘increase the risk of a crash’

The update will be applied to nearly 54,000 vehicles

www.theverge.com

@SPadival
The "rolling, non-zero stop", (like 3 mph), will cost $75 in Rockville, Maryland, USA, automatic cameras as it is _not_ a full stop from personal experience although mine happened last month due to driver error _NOT_ FSD(S).

 

[Thekiwi]

BP wants to buy Supercharger stations, but Tesla hasn't agreed to sell, this is just a plan BP has.

I thought BP was indicating that they were open to any approaches from third parties who were working with Tesla to have superchargers placed on their property and had their plans disrupted by Tesla last week.

BP are also looking to hire members of the 500 supercharger team that were laid off, seeing as they have knowledge of the intricacies involved with getting permitting, subsidies, contractors, third party land providers etc involved with installing EV chargers in North America.

Tesla laying off these 500 people is a massive gift to any entity looking to hit the ground running with building out a nationwide network, they really should be sending Elon flowers.

 

[dhrivnak]

I have been a Tesla owner for over 14 years and an investor for over 11. Mostly a hold investor and growing my little stake over the years. I lead or helped lead, over 20 EV ride and drive events. Always promoting Tesla in the process. But I am sad to say it seems to be time for me to get out.

I fully believed in Tesla’s and Elon’s vision for sustainable transportation and a sustainable future. Unfortunately, I am no longer sure that is Elon’s current focus. And if it is not Elon’s focus it will not be Tesla’s focus. I am fine with Elon pursuing FSD and Optimus, but not at the expense of the sustainable vision. Please let me know if I am wrong.

But seeing:

• The Semi being very SLOOWLY introduced, a good 3 years late.
• The Tesla Roadster 2 being some 4 years late (likely good halo car).
• The SuperCharger team being sacked with no explanation given. Especially after NAS became the standard, and has been Tesla’s crown jewels. But focus is gone before the other manufacturers have modified their cars to use it.
• EV growth being walked back, significantly, way back.
• Model 3 losing the tax credit, resulting in a 20% price increase, and likely a good part of the sales drop.
• Dropped plans for a smaller value model.
• Strong walk back on Tesla Solar.
• Mexico being slow walked

While at the same time:

• Huge build up for FSD and while it is much better, for me it still falls well short of Level 4. And with clear promises for 7 years that it is just around the corner I can’t see betting the company on it. Even when my hand is clearly on the wheel I get frequent nags.
• Twitter diversion, at a minimum a loss of focus.
• Optimus build up, again it could be a cool future product but does not promote sustainability.

Maybe my mind is too small to understand, and the new growth platforms may truly be the future. But they are not the sustainable future that I had bought into, hook, line and sinker. But so many changes from the vision I thought Elon had has me second guessing my strong support.

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla laying off these 500 people is a massive gift to any entity looking to hit the ground running with building out a nationwide network, they really should be sending Elon flowers.

It is a massive gift to Tesla as well if BP buys Tesla chargers to put on those sites. (it would be foolish not to)

 

[SPadival]

Elon doesn't want Tesla to run convenience stores, restaurants, maintain toilets etc.

Even franchise is a hassle, direct employment a nightmare.

EV charging has greater dwell time, more opportunity for shopping, food etc. Proper meals instead of fast food, bigger shopping and more bought.

BP Pulse North America previously announced they were buying $100 million of Tesla V4+ chargers.

BP Pulse, franchisees and others can handle the retail, BP can add Tesla V4 chargers to their existing locations, new Gigahubs and thus supercharging the Supercharger rollout.

We end up with the Norwegian problem in West Oslo. Hard to find petrol stations as everything moves to EV charging over time (more money from EV customer retail purchases)

Also, at least in Australia, oil marketing companies have higher margins on the stuff they sell in store than the fuel they sell outside.

So rather than buying supercharger sites, they can take over fuel stations and convert them partially/fully into fast charging sites. The only fly in the ointment with this model is currently, they have people paying for fuel to go inside & hence generate foot traffic.

 

[capster]

Here are a handful of suggestions for improving the signal-to-noise and signal-to-FUD ratios in the thread:

1. When you hit reply, before you are taken to enter your reply and if there are previous replies from others, you are presented the number of previous replies and an opportunity to look at those directly. That way people can easily see if they are repeating another’s already made comments.
2. Have a limit to the length of a post that is shown and, if the post is longer than the limit, use a "Show more" button to show more and a "Show less" to hide again. Similar to X etc.
3. For newly joined members and new posters in the roundtable thread, limit the number of posts per hour, day, and or week for a decent amount of time which could be shortened if the poster’s posts start to earn them a good reputation.
4. Impose a post limit on posters as a function of the number of thumbs down and ignores they are getting from members and having those thumbs down and ignores weighted by the reputation of the member giving the thumbs down or doing the ignoring. A member’s reputation could be a function of their time in the roundtable, their number of posts being above some number like one thousand, and the ratio of their roundtable posts to non-thumbs-down responses.
5. If a post from a low reputation poster gets a lot of thumbs downs from good reputation posters, that post and its replies could be hidden until a mod explicitly allows it to be visible again.

 

[TradingInvest]

I have been a Tesla owner for over 14 years and an investor for over 11. Mostly a hold investor and growing my little stake over the years. I lead or helped lead, over 20 EV ride and drive events. Always promoting Tesla in the process. But I am sad to say it seems to be time for me to get out.

I fully believed in Tesla’s and Elon’s vision for sustainable transportation and a sustainable future. Unfortunately, I am no longer sure that is Elon’s current focus. And if it is not Elon’s focus it will not be Tesla’s focus. I am fine with Elon pursuing FSD and Optimus, but not at the expense of the sustainable vision. Please let me know if I am wrong.

But seeing:

• The Semi being very SLOOWLY introduced, a good 3 years late.
• The Tesla Roadster 2 being some 4 years late (likely good halo car).
• The SuperCharger team being sacked with no explanation given. Especially after NAS became the standard, and has been Tesla’s crown jewels. But focus is gone before the other manufacturers have modified their cars to use it.
• EV growth being walked back, significantly, way back.
• Model 3 losing the tax credit, resulting in a 20% price increase, and likely a good part of the sales drop.
• Dropped plans for a smaller value model.
• Strong walk back on Tesla Solar.
• Mexico being slow walked

While at the same time:

• Huge build up for FSD and while it is much better, for me it still falls well short of Level 4. And with clear promises for 7 years that it is just around the corner I can’t see betting the company on it. Even when my hand is clearly on the wheel I get frequent nags.
• Twitter diversion, at a minimum a loss of focus.
• Optimus build up, again it could be a cool future product but does not promote sustainability.

Maybe my mind is too small to understand, and the new growth platforms may truly be the future. But they are not the sustainable future that I had bought into, hook, line and sinker. But so many changes from the vision I thought Elon had has me second guessing my strong support.

I am surprised to hear this from a long-term Tesla supporter.

FSD is a high priority because each EV with FSD would be capable of replacing 10 gasoline vehicles.
FSD can help increase demand for EVs.
Optimus is a high priority because it could reduce manufacturing costs and help scale car production down the road.
Every project's delay had valid reasons behind it.

Tesla said they will not stop until every gasoline car on the street is gone. I trust them.

Edit:
I will add my two cents to address your other points:

"The Semi being very SLOWLY introduced, a good 3 years late."

• If Tesla engineers have been sitting around doing nothing, then you have a valid point. You should know how hard Tesla engineers pushed themselves on all these projects. The Semi is a product that requires extreme reliability. They produced some, tested them in the real world, and are now redesigning some parts, including changing from a 2-axle drive to a 3-axle drive. If you think it took too long, try working on these projects and see how easy it is.
• Meanwhile, Tesla put in a crazy amount of effort to get the Cybertruck out. This will be a high-impact product.

"The Tesla Roadster 2 being some 4 years late (likely a good halo car)."

• This is a low-impact project but can take a lot of resources to make it perfect.

"The SuperCharger team being sacked with no explanation given. Especially after NACS became the standard, and has been Tesla’s crown jewel. But focus is gone before other manufacturers have modified their cars to use it."

• We don't know what Elon is planning. He did say they will continue to grow the Supercharger network and focus on 100% availability. Have Superchargers been a bottleneck? Someone who traveled 100k miles using Superchargers said he had never waited at a station. I never had to wait in line either.

"EV growth being walked back, significantly, way back."

• No, Elon said we are between two major growth waves. They are preparing for the next big wave.

"Model 3 losing the tax credit, resulting in a 20% price increase and likely a good part of the sales drop."

• Supply chains take a long time to plan. You should blame the government, not Tesla, for this.

"Dropped plans for a smaller value model."

• A cheaper model is coming earlier than planned.
• The Robotaxi could still be two models, one being a cheaper model.

"Strong walk-back on Tesla Solar."

• Running a business is like fighting a war; you have to deal with everything with limited resources. Solar industry itself is progressing well, even if Tesla completely pulled out of it, solar industry would continue to grow. On the other hand, Tesla put in a lot of effort to grow energy storage business.

"Mexico being slow-walked."

• At the moment, even the current lines are not fully utilized. Do you want them to add more production capacity right away?

"Twitter diversion, at a minimum a loss of focus."

• Elon said if we lose to the woke mind virus, we would lose everything—the Tesla mission, the SpaceX mission, the business, shareholder value—everything would be gone. I agree with him on this view. We are still not out of the woods yet.

 

[wipster]

Leaving aside the stigma of an oil-giant buyer like BP, does anyone have any reasoned thoughts on what the current price of the Supercharger business line should be?

By "price," I truly mean price and not value. We're all familiar with the intangible benefits of the Supercharger network and we can debate that ad nauseam.

When NACS adoption and Tesla supercharger access were announced last year, the stock saw a huge rally so obviously the market thinks Tesla's giant charging market-share has some value. Tesla can't monetize all that gain, but I wonder if they could get an inflated price. It might be a good alternative to other sources of capital and also simplify Tesla's overall operations.

I'm guessing we don't have sufficient granular data to really price this business, but wondering if anyone has a model that takes a stab.

As a start, last year, Morgan Stanley put an NPV of ~$20 billion on the global supercharging business, but that included building the superchargers as well. Presumably, Tesla wouldn't sell the manufacturing piece, but perhaps?

So is selling the SC network (or a portion of it) why Elon said revenues would be higher in the later part of 2024?

 

[2daMoon]

So is selling the SC network (or a portion of it) why Elon said revenues would be higher in the later part of 2024?

There is nothing to support that rumor.

BP is specifically interested in acquiring sites that have been stalled by the Tesla layoffs. These would be sites already planning to install Tesla Superchargers that have not broken ground. They are looking for desperate investors whose timeline has been set back so that BP can purchase rights to their project at a discount.

This is NOT about any existing Supercharger sites being acquired by BP.

 

[elasalle]

BP wants to buy Supercharger stations, but Tesla hasn't agreed to sell, this is just an plan BP has.

https://www.crainsnewyork.com/transportation/revel-talks-snap-defunct-nyc-tesla-charging-sites

likely similar to the revel news.

BP, SuC my …

 

[MC3OZ]

There is nothing to support that rumor.

BP is specifically interested in acquiring sites that have been stalled by the Tesla layoffs. These would be sites already planning to install Tesla Superchargers that have not broken ground. They are looking for desperate investors whose timeline has been set back so that BP can purchase rights to their project at a discount.

This is NOT about any existing Supercharger sites being acquired by BP.

I think what it is about is return on invested capital, and streamlining the business.

When they slow down expansion, Supercharging is more likely to become a net contributor to cash, rather than a drain on cash.

And by allowing others like BP to expand more rapidly, they sell more charging hardware to those providers.

They are still expanding Supercharging, for example on the 9th of May they opened 7 new stations. (supercharge.info)

 

[FastEddieB]

I’ve mentioned how disillusioned I’ve been with what’s going on at Tesla, and specifically with what are apparently impulsive actions by Musk. I’m not sure I want to be invested in a company that treats its employees - and top managers - so cavalierly. As such, I have a plan concerning our investment in Tesla stock.

We have shares scattered over several accounts. The main ones show a basis per share of $104 and $235 respectively. My plan is to put in a mental “stop loss” at 160 for half of the shares in each. The losses in one will help balance out the gains in the other, re: capital gains tax.

I’m obviously not ready to bail out completely - hope springs eternal and all that. My hope is Tesla does regain its stability and direction and pays off in the long run. But, again, I’m disillusioned enough to not want to see our stake in the company go down the drain. Which seemed inconceivable to me 6 months ago, but not so much now.

As an aside, we love our 2022 Model 3 LR, and pretty much assumed our next EV would be another Tesla. That’s no longer a given.

 

[Gigapress]

Here is why I disagree with you:

You can certainly rationalize why TSLA investors might remain holding the stock even through all of this turmoil and down times. Confidence in Tesla's future is why many investors still own and hold TSLA. Energy, autonomy, and Optimus are massive products coming down the line with huge revenue potential, so anyone (who is a long term investor) who believes these products are indeed on the way would have no issue holding TSLA while its down so much. Even possibly for many years yet while these products come to fruition.

I agree. Also, I think Tesla has accrued more actual underlying value than the other megacap tech companies in the past three years. I thought TSLA was a good deal at the 2021 price and now the price is cheaper despite the company being much more valuable and derisked. I am trying to deploy capital as rationally and strategically as humanly possible. That means I am more interested in buying than I was in 2021. I think the world would be better off, for a host of reasons, if Tesla were already the highest-valued company of all time. But selfishly as an investor I prefer the current situation because I’m back to working and have surplus cashflow. The lower the price, the more shares I can buy. It’s that simple.

Tesla cars were always just the starting point of Tesla, the stepping stones to the actual company. Ten years from now the auto part of the business will be one of the smallest parts of the business. If someone doesn't believe that then yes they should sell TSLA and invest into something else.

If you meant this literally then I disagree. Tesla Motors started with the simple ambition of showing the world that a viable and fun EV could be made profitably. The founders have said so and also said they expected Tesla to go bankrupt or quickly be outcompeted by established automakers, after the proof of concept had been demonstrated. I remember Marc Tarpenning said in an interview years ago that they were genuinely surprised and perplexed that none of the big companies really responded to the Roadster and S.

The actual future of the company, from today’s perspective, is the result of Elon Musk’s almost pathological inability to avoid scope creep and his tendency to become bored and listless if he doesn’t continually stimulate himself with exponentially growing of challenges and goals.

Also, I for one think Tesla’s automotive division, even without the autonomy dream, is by itself worth the entire current market cap. Tesla’s designs, production system, engineering processes, and distribution are so far ahead of everyone else that I foresee a clear path to Tesla selling around 20M cars per year at around $5k lifetime net profit per car. This would be equivalent to selling as many cars as Toyota and VW combined with slightly better margin that I consider conservative because Tesla is vertically integrated with the retail segment, so that $5k includes profits from extras such as software upgrades, insurance, post-warranty service, charging, and accessories. It also assumes that all the current EV and battery government subsidies will disappear. I thought these kinds of numbers were reasonable five years ago when I first started going in heavy, and I think it’s much more probable now.

 

[2daMoon]

I think what it is about is return on invested capital, and streamlining the business.

When they slow down expansion, Supercharging is more likely to become a net contributor to cash, rather than a drain on cash.

And by allowing others like BP to expand more rapidly, they sell more charging hardware to those providers.

They are still expanding Supercharging, for example on the 9th of May they opened 7 new stations. (supercharge.info)

'zactly

 

[2daMoon]

I’ve mentioned how disillusioned I’ve been with what’s going on at Tesla, and specifically with what are apparently impulsive actions by Musk. I’m not sure I want to be invested in a company that treats its employees - and top managers - so cavalierly. As such, I have a plan concerning our investment in Tesla stock.

We have shares scattered over several accounts. The main ones show a basis per share of $104 and $235 respectively. My plan is to put in a mental “stop loss” at 160 for half of the shares in each. The losses in one will help balance out the gains in the other, re: capital gains tax.

I’m obviously not ready to bail out completely - hope springs eternal and all that. My hope is Tesla does regain its stability and direction and pays off in the long run. But, again, I’m disillusioned enough to not want to see our stake in the company go down the drain. Which seemed inconceivable to me 6 months ago, but not so much now.

As an aside, we love our 2022 Model 3 LR, and pretty much assumed our next EV would be another Tesla. That’s no longer a given.

When in doubt, zoom out.

Look at the times Elon has done big layoffs before and compare those dates to chart action, business growth, etc. afterwards.

Once you have done that, this latest episode in the saga may be less of a concern.

More molehill than mountain, as long as you don't get caught up in the FUD being spun up over this.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I have been a Tesla owner for over 14 years and an investor for over 11. Mostly a hold investor and growing my little stake over the years. I lead or helped lead, over 20 EV ride and drive events. Always promoting Tesla in the process. But I am sad to say it seems to be time for me to get out.

I fully believed in Tesla’s and Elon’s vision for sustainable transportation and a sustainable future. Unfortunately, I am no longer sure that is Elon’s current focus. And if it is not Elon’s focus it will not be Tesla’s focus. I am fine with Elon pursuing FSD and Optimus, but not at the expense of the sustainable vision. Please let me know if I am wrong.

But seeing:

• The Semi being very SLOOWLY introduced, a good 3 years late.
• The Tesla Roadster 2 being some 4 years late (likely good halo car).
• The SuperCharger team being sacked with no explanation given. Especially after NAS became the standard, and has been Tesla’s crown jewels. But focus is gone before the other manufacturers have modified their cars to use it.
• EV growth being walked back, significantly, way back.
• Model 3 losing the tax credit, resulting in a 20% price increase, and likely a good part of the sales drop.
• Dropped plans for a smaller value model.
• Strong walk back on Tesla Solar.
• Mexico being slow walked

While at the same time:

• Huge build up for FSD and while it is much better, for me it still falls well short of Level 4. And with clear promises for 7 years that it is just around the corner I can’t see betting the company on it. Even when my hand is clearly on the wheel I get frequent nags.
• Twitter diversion, at a minimum a loss of focus.
• Optimus build up, again it could be a cool future product but does not promote sustainability.

Maybe my mind is too small to understand, and the new growth platforms may truly be the future. But they are not the sustainable future that I had bought into, hook, line and sinker. But so many changes from the vision I thought Elon had has me second guessing my strong support.

Follow your instincts and sell. If anyone is bullish here and we are incorrect on direction or timing then you'll regret not following your instincts. If you go back and read the last 30 pages of posts you can see that things are not looking good in terms of sentiment.