Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

This is where I believe Tesla will be very different than Uber. Rather than keep prices high to earn nice profits, I think Elon will slice robotaxi margins to thin levels in order to aggressively push adoption.

I see many TSLA bulls forecasting trillions in revenues from RT's, but my hunch is that's overly bullish. Just look how Elon cut auto margins without worry, no one forecasted that happening. I think RT margins will be similarly low. It would keep TSLA much lower than many bulls expect, but it would also entice tons of people to use the RT service in a major way.

There are on the order of 10 trillion miles traveled per year in automobiles. 3 trillion per year in the US alone where Tesla’s autonomy competitive advantage is greatest. The trend is for increased miles, and if autonomy and mass production of affordable, long-lasting EVs are achieved, then the rate of increase will probably accelerate. Trillions of annual robotaxi revenue is probably too optimistic but if Tesla extracts just $0.10 per mile on average due to having the best software and overall system integration, then that can easily add up to hundreds of billions of dollars of earnings per year, as the fleet approaches 100M+ vehicles in the long run. And It’s not just robotaxi but also FSD subscriptions. The average vehicle goes roughly 1000 miles per month. Many Tesla drivers are already happy to pay $100/month for the current software version. Which comes out to about $0.10/mile. Now add in opportunities in the commercial trucking sector and all kinds of mobile machinery such as forklifts and backhoes.

 

[durkie]

• Elon said if we lose to the woke mind virus, we would lose everything—the Tesla mission, the SpaceX mission, the business, shareholder value—everything would be gone. I agree with him on this view. We are still not out of the woods yet.

What's the woke mind virus? Sounds really big and important.

 

[FastEddieB]

What's the woke mind virus? Sounds really big and important.

Well, RFK apparently has a brain worm. Is that similar?

 

[Carl Raymond]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788553049805373673

View attachment 1045619

At this new low price I’m pretty sure it’s profitable to deploy for arbitrage, not just frequency regulation. People like Matt Smith who said Megapacks only sold because utilities billed “cost plus” should now be believers.
e.g. 300 full cycles at 33cents profit per kWh and it’s paid for. A thousand cycles at 10cents, is still fast ROI.
Fill up on solar, sell into evening is one cycle. Wind at night, morning peak, a possible second. Per day!

 

[Carl Raymond]

I have been a Tesla owner for over 14 years and an investor for over 11. Mostly a hold investor and growing my little stake over the years. I lead or helped lead, over 20 EV ride and drive events. Always promoting Tesla in the process. But I am sad to say it seems to be time for me to get out.

I fully believed in Tesla’s and Elon’s vision for sustainable transportation and a sustainable future. Unfortunately, I am no longer sure that is Elon’s current focus. And if it is not Elon’s focus it will not be Tesla’s focus. I am fine with Elon pursuing FSD and Optimus, but not at the expense of the sustainable vision. Please let me know if I am wrong.

But seeing:

• The Semi being very SLOOWLY introduced, a good 3 years late.
• The Tesla Roadster 2 being some 4 years late (likely good halo car).
• The SuperCharger team being sacked with no explanation given. Especially after NAS became the standard, and has been Tesla’s crown jewels. But focus is gone before the other manufacturers have modified their cars to use it.
• EV growth being walked back, significantly, way back.
• Model 3 losing the tax credit, resulting in a 20% price increase, and likely a good part of the sales drop.
• Dropped plans for a smaller value model.
• Strong walk back on Tesla Solar.
• Mexico being slow walked

While at the same time:

• Huge build up for FSD and while it is much better, for me it still falls well short of Level 4. And with clear promises for 7 years that it is just around the corner I can’t see betting the company on it. Even when my hand is clearly on the wheel I get frequent nags.
• Twitter diversion, at a minimum a loss of focus.
• Optimus build up, again it could be a cool future product but does not promote sustainability.

Maybe my mind is too small to understand, and the new growth platforms may truly be the future. But they are not the sustainable future that I had bought into, hook, line and sinker. But so many changes from the vision I thought Elon had has me second guessing my strong support.

It’s easy to get thrown by Elon’s sudden focus on autonomy. Is it a mission distraction or a mission acceleration? I’ve been asking myself that too.

The answer hangs on level of belief that FSD is going to support driverless. If FSD can drop the kids to soccer practice, and you to the train station, it’s a tailpipe killer. Buying a non-FSD car is like buying a film camera. I don’t believe Tesla will license FSD for ICE, it’s contra mission. All they need say is it doesn’t work for technical reasons e.g. engine vibration kills vision quality.

If feeling down, my remedy is to jump on YouTube and watch some latest version FSD drives. My doubts that Tesla are in control of this genie are being fortnightly washed away.

tldr: FSD is a tailpipe killer. The mission has been brought forward.

 

[Ocelot]

How would we (1) expand permitted contributors to the Exalted Few?, including those who Maarten overlooked?

I always have maintained this thread is not a democracy. A meritocracy, though? Hmmm.

By the way, @unk45 most certainly would be one of them.

This would be a great way to amplify the echoes!
Too many times “ trolls” have been mislabeled as such, received harsh annd unjust treatment and then left. Remember the model X part distributor? Am I too deft to decide who I think is a troll? Can I make the decision myself? Is it that hard for people to place someone on ignore..or keep scrolling?
If you are seriously considering going down this road, it would be a huge mistake.
This “ thread” was going long before you decided to take it over and become possessive of it. It is not yours. It is ours. The people have created it. The pro Tesla, the anti-Tesla, the bear, the bulls, the rare posters and the frequent ones. They all have merit. Failing to understand that, would be doing everyone here a disservice.

I am all for a maximum of 2 posts per day though.

 

[AudubonB]

1. Regarding the “$5 fee to gain the right to post” suggestion:

I would never charge money for someone to exercise the right to post anything.

But….what about: “Gee, nice post you just put out there. Be a shame if you thought having it stay up is worth more than one share of TSLA, delivered to Acct# [email protected]”

 

[Robertj]

Tesla NZ mail out re supercharging

Supercharger Network Update​

We’ve heard concerns from our Tesla community about recent changes to the Supercharger program and would like to provide an update on the network in New Zealand: Core to the Mission – The Supercharger network is still core to Tesla’s mission of accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy. Reducing costs and increasing efficiency are important for fulfilling our mission and remain a priority. Customer Experience is Key – Customer experience for charging continues to be a top priority for the Supercharger network and we continue to focus on the ease of charging, competitive pricing and investing in the charging experience holistically. Expansion of Network – The Supercharger network will continue to be expanded. Projects currently in construction are continuing to be completed and put into operation. Service and Support – Supercharger sites are continuing to be serviced and maintained by our team, with operational support being provided. Thank you for continuing to support our mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.​

Same email in Australia

 

[AudubonB]

2. Anyone posting that I or any other thread Moderator may be a troll is not going to be silenced or otherwise throttled, but he goddamned very well may be finding himself at the pointy end of a libel suit. That is beyond reprehensible.

 

[jeewee3000]

Long before any of us have the option of a robotaxi, the effect of really-really-really good FSD, even if technically you have to still be the driver is going to noticeable.
Take a look at the advertising budgets of major car companies, and then look at the ads. Notice anything?
They say NOTHING about the capabilities of the car. Its all style, no substance. Its all trying to associate with certain attitudes, or 'vibes' or styles. Why is this? Because virtually every car is the same, in terms of capabilities. Anti-lock brakes? remote lock/unlock? central locking? power-steering? electric windows? Every car, at every trim, has almost identical capabilities.

Maybe in the future, but right now I'm 18 months deep into no-USS-Model Y ownership and I still lack autopark.

Tesla needs to step it up in Europe. And regulations are not an excuse. They have the tech and can dumb it down for EU buids until regulators allow the latest builds.

 

[Robertj]

Supercharger ex Elon

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788834859110002716

 

[cliff harris]

Maybe in the future, but right now I'm 18 months deep into no-USS-Model Y ownership and I still lack autopark.

Tesla needs to step it up in Europe. And regulations are not an excuse. They have the tech and can dumb it down for EU buids until regulators allow the latest builds.

Ha, don't get me wrong I massively feel your pain. I also have a no USS 2022 model Y with FSD, and no autopark, and it annoys the hell out of me . I'm just speaking more as an investor than owner there.

 

[cliff harris]

BTW another way to evaluate elon's focus:
Elon is 100% focused on the next stupid hard challenge. Its what he thinks about, and tweets about. That doesn't mean previous beaten challenges don't continue to trundle along. For example he tweets WAY more about starship than falcon 9, because starship is unsolved, and falcon 9 is...kinda boring at this point, despite being a massive success, and a huge money maker.
FSD is a huge challenge. Building more superchargers is kinda boring, especially to Elon. That doesn't mean building more won't happen, it just means Elon wants it to continue in the background, efficiently and without getting bloated.
When Elon is bored with a product, it just means all the technical issues have been sorted. This is why he doesn't tweet or talk about the model 3 or Y much now. Its all cybertruck .

 

[SPadival]

Barrage of SC posts by Elon

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788834859110002716

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788838767165415549

Maybe in the future, but right now I'm 18 months deep into no-USS-Model Y ownership and I still lack autopark.

Tesla needs to step it up in Europe. And regulations are not an excuse. They have the tech and can dumb it down for EU buids until regulators allow the latest builds.

Don’t worry. Vaibhav is personally on the case to release some deferred revenue.

 

[Ellec]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788834859110002716

From the horses mouth, always best to wait for authoritative sources.

 

[Gigapress]

It’s possible. Pickup designed has evolved, albeit slowly, and with major setbacks like the dodge ram. Bot honestly, vehicle design needs to be more rounded and aero and the Darwinian nature of range will dictate movement toward something softer.

There's a lot more to aero efficiency than just roundness.

Coefficient of Drag
0.33 Cybertruck
0.3 Average sedan
0.3 Rivian R1T
0.33 Silverado EV
0.44 F-150 Lightning
0.45 Average ICE pickup

Cybertruck is tied with the Silverado for 2nd-most aerodynamic pickup truck ever made. The R1T is the best ever, but only by a 10% margin. Also, the CT comes with slightly larger tires than the R1T. This design choice probably accounts for some of the aero difference. Also, Elon claimed in 2019 that with "extreme effort" and "tweaking many small details" the CT's Cd could get as low as 0.3, which would match the Rivian. I presume this includes removal of the side mirrors.

Although CT's angularity is detrimental to aero efficiency, the CT has several other features that substantially improve aero.

​

* The flat, gradually sloped roofline and the tonneau cover keep the flow attached to the truck. Traditional pickups have severe flow separation that occurs at the aft trailing edges of the cab. This flow separation causes pressure drag and turbulent vortices.​

​

* Smooth, flat front hood and windshield with no discontinuities, concave curvature, or protuberances, except for a giant windshield wiper that Tesla said is beneficial for aero because it blocks airflow from leaking around the side towards the driver side window.​

​

* No door handles disrupting flow on the sides​

​

* Adjustable suspension height allows low riding on roads​

​

* Completely flat underbelly​

​

* Low front edge of frunk reduces area of front fascia by about 30% compared to traditional truck design. Reduces high pressure zone at the nose of the vehicle.​

Additionally, energy efficiency isn't everything. Cybertruck's angularity is unavoidable because of other design choices that benefit other metrics and functions. Also, in a towing scenario the minor difference between Cd of the CT and R1T is almost a negligible factor compared to the drag from the load itself.

 

[aubreymcfato]

BTW another way to evaluate elon's focus:
Elon is 100% focused on the next stupid hard challenge. Its what he thinks about, and tweets about. That doesn't mean previous beaten challenges don't continue to trundle along. For example he tweets WAY more about starship than falcon 9, because starship is unsolved, and falcon 9 is...kinda boring at this point, despite being a massive success, and a huge money maker.
FSD is a huge challenge. Building more superchargers is kinda boring, especially to Elon. That doesn't mean building more won't happen, it just means Elon wants it to continue in the background, efficiently and without getting bloated.
When Elon is bored with a product, it just means all the technical issues have been sorted. This is why he doesn't tweet or talk about the model 3 or Y much now. Its all cybertruck .

I totally agree, but...
how can he - a really, really smart person - be oblivious to the fact that

• without a communication/PR department,
• him as the only "source of truth" regarding Tesla

this style of communication causes issues? I mean, it's days the whole EV world is worried about Superchargers, for several news cycles now. There have been articles, podcast, videos, countless tweets.
It's like he just read on X some tweets about this and said "oh, people didn't really get my 240-characters message and read too much into my immediate cancellation of the Supercharger team, best to write another 240-characters explanation!"

It's not difficult to understand that silence gets filled with fear and doubts.
Jeez.

 

[lascavarian]

But they are not the sustainable future that I had bought into, hook, line and sinker. But so many changes from the vision I thought Elon had has me second guessing my strong support.

I understand the feeling of cognitive dissonance and confusion. How does this make sense!

One path to consider revolves around maximizing usage. Consumer vehicles are not usage efficient.

Consider a future where ice dealerships consortiums buy the SC network in totality with Tesla a minority partner. This removes a barrier to success as they move to full EV as battery prices fall. Pay attention to CATL.

Tesla uses the SC money to build out the heavy truck charging network over 15 months consistent with the launch of the next gen Semi platform later in 25 at scale.

FSD makes transition to high usage RT and heavy trucking a reality. Required development is the heavy truck charging national network at Tesla truck stops as well as induction charging for RT at 20ish southern state metro areas for a start. We will see 8/8.

I think a plan like this only makes sense with FSD success in sight. It is a major restructuring and refocus on maximizing usage or utility made possible by FSD advances.

This future makes sense to me and perhaps others. YMMV.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I have been a Tesla owner for over 14 years and an investor for over 11. Mostly a hold investor and growing my little stake over the years. I lead or helped lead, over 20 EV ride and drive events. Always promoting Tesla in the process. But I am sad to say it seems to be time for me to get out.

I fully believed in Tesla’s and Elon’s vision for sustainable transportation and a sustainable future. Unfortunately, I am no longer sure that is Elon’s current focus. And if it is not Elon’s focus it will not be Tesla’s focus. I am fine with Elon pursuing FSD and Optimus, but not at the expense of the sustainable vision. Please let me know if I am wrong.

But seeing:

• The Semi being very SLOOWLY introduced, a good 3 years late. batteries?
• The Tesla Roadster 2 being some 4 years late (likely good halo car). other priorities, 48 volt, 4680 (supporting other battery suppliers), new thoughts on unboxing - perhaps a living testbed for ideas,
• The SuperCharger team being sacked with no explanation given. Especially after NAS became the standard, and has been Tesla’s crown jewels. But focus is gone before the other manufacturers have modified their cars to use it. Others like BP/EG Group (UK) being better at sites, retail, facilities? Tesla sell them the hardware, maybe services
• EV growth being walked back, significantly, way back. New products rethink (1 robotaxi replacing 5 ICE cars), Tesla cost cutting, 3/Y lines maximising, new countries like Chile (Argentina? Buying assets with a declining currency works well, eg Turkey, but have to keep changing prices)
• Model 3 losing the tax credit, resulting in a 20% price increase, and likely a good part of the sales drop. Lease still ok.Batteries coming online at good prices in USA/NAFTA/Korea/Japan - wish to support suppliers at a difficult time during transition from China-supplied components/minerals.
• Dropped plans for a smaller value model. Postponed/rejigged into different products that can be deployed sooner
• Strong walk back on Tesla Solar. Permitting a nightmare for older houses, overall I tend to agree, but it may have done its job as a prompt to other solar firms to include batteriies and better offers
• Mexico being slow walked Product rejig, see how unboxing, 48 volt, robotaxis and other initiatives change factory design requirements and battery supply too

While at the same time:

• Huge build up for FSD and while it is much better, for me it still falls well short of Level 4. And with clear promises for 7 years that it is just around the corner I can’t see betting the company on it. Even when my hand is clearly on the wheel I get frequent nags.
• Twitter diversion, at a minimum a loss of focus. Or alternative platform for messaging, fact checking (community notes)
• Optimus build up, again it could be a cool future product but does not promote sustainability. Money roughly equates to energy in our tech society - imagine a farmhand optimus hand-weeding instead of tractor, pesticides, worker who needs food & money that costs more in energy and money than Optimus' needs.

Maybe my mind is too small to understand, and the new growth platforms may truly be the future. But they are not the sustainable future that I had bought into, hook, line and sinker. But so many changes from the vision I thought Elon had has me second guessing my strong support.

I'll just counter with some different/potential views. You might be right with some of this, but please hear me out (green bold italic above)

Jeff Lutz has said on several occasions that he has heard that Tesla is viewed as a supportive customer (tough but fair). With current battery demand/supply/prices - Tesla may be pivoting hard to ensure there's less chance of a battery supplier/supply chain collapse. Steady state as opposed to boom and bust removing investor/loan confidence.

 

[Todd Burch]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788834859110002716

From the horses mouth, always best to wait for authoritative sources.

This should be a shock to no one here. Especially long term investors.

There has been lots of nonsense tossed out by the media lately, or by bears or even members here armchair quarterbacking and attempting to read between the lines and second-guess the greatest entrepreneur the world has ever seen.

I’d like to suggest an observation that some people are truly unconsciously letting themselves get influenced by that nonsense.

People think Tesla’s going to stop making cars or Superchargers? Really? Who will carry on the mission of transitioning the world to sustainable transport? GM? Lucid? Do you think Elon believes China’s going to flood the US with BYDs?

Superchargers are the standard in North America. People thought Tesla was going to just abandon them?

People need to relax and stop letting themselves get pulled into the media’s bubble of high school gossip. Like take a serious 500mg chill pill.

The media makes money by being dramatic. Elon is often not great about being clear in his posts. He never has been. It is our job to recognize that and recognize that reality will not be as dramatic as the media has painted it to be.

As a consequence, it is unwise to make investment decisions on knee-jerk reactions to rumors, gossip, and reading between the lines.

The work ethic and corporate culture at Tesla that has put them miles ahead of competitors did not arise out of a lazy and easygoing CEO. And this comes from someone who has been closely watching the company evolve since the Roadster days.

Elon is still Elon. He is damn determined to make every car electric and spread solar and battery backup everywhere.

It’s shocking to me that Tesla can now see the end of the tunnel on this massive share price kickstarter (FSD and even Optimus) and people are talking about selling NOW.

These catalysts are not far off in the grand scheme of things.