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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You can trace the history of the world through him and a handful of his contemporaries. I suspect Elon will occupy a similar place in history and culture.
As far back as Plato and Thucydides (History of the Peloponnesian War) we find that great accomplishments are accomplished by seriously flawed people. Through millennia that has not changed.

Elon Musk will be remembered in that vein simply because he has changed the way people understand local options (Zip2), manage money (PayPal), understand how to use rockets better than ever was possible (SpaceX), and so on through the long list that grows longer... but throughout history those seminal figures all have large flaws, (here Homer's Iliad and Odyssey illustrate the mythical understanding of human frailty) as does Elon Musk.

The question here is whether Mr. Musk's enormous capabilities extend to managing a commercial enterprise with large scale for which continuing success depends on widespread governmental and commercial cooperation and assistance. In short: is he the best CEO now?
We all understand that Ms.Shotwell is a superb CEO, regardless of title, who has the very rare ability to manage simultaneously crucial conflicting views with success. From SpaceX directly, (most constrained by US government issues) to Starlink (practically all governments from USA to Maldives very protective of telecommunications issues) she manages to finesse all that and continue with Starship too.

Some of us think we need a Shotwell for Tesla.

That is a very different issue than is the 2018 compensation agreement. We should separate those issues. Were there a "Shotwell" for Tesla I would be doubling down on my 2014 position in TSLA.
 
I've also attached the document that contains ALL of the instances when a Waymo operator had to intervene in ANY way.
No, that document is only for when there is a driver. There is no log of the "fleet response" interventions for driverless Waymos that are public, because Waymo doesn't consider them a disengagement.
 
Well, let’s see if I can get you to reverse your downvote, or simply amass more such.

Yes, I most certainly am serious. I cannot abide someone who is a weasel with his words. Who dissembles. Who tergiversates (look those up if you have to).

I parsed out what is irresponsible in that statement; I can do it again:


We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention

So: what does the statement say of where we are?
  • We’re not AT the point.
    • We’re not even getting to the point.
      • We’re STARTING.
What point? The point that,
  • IF bugs are fixed, we’ll have a good product.
This is some 7 1/2 years after proclaiming reaching by year’s end (end 2017) US coast-to-coast self-driving without interventions.
In retrospect, that was a mistake. A rather large one, yet one that I and many - most, I am sure - accepted and forgave.

But a man who does not learn from his mistakes, but repeats and repeats and repeats what is effectively the same mistake is someone whose word means nothing. Who cannot be trusted.

A man who did not get my vote for an enormous incentive - by far the largest in nominal terms in the history of the world, and very likely in real terms as well - and who will not get my vote again this month.

Someone who does not belong at the helm of this critical company.

I long ago proclaimed myself as a long-term investor; I have tried to make this thread focused on same, rather than one for traders or for those who make use of derivative products.

I will today clarify that. I do not consider TSLA a “long term” holding, rather, I have set it up in our investment trust to be a multi-generational one. Just as one side of my family, those who over two centuries ago created the glass industry in Pittsburgh, “always” had PPG in the family, and another side held Std. Oil and its progeny as multigenerational investments.
As such, that Elon Musk presently is the company’s CEO is of fleeting consequence. There WILL be a time when he no longer is CEO, nor retired, nor even alive. He WILL be followed by others.

This misstatement - this series of misstatements - is serious but it is not the gravest he has made concerning Tesla. For me, that was his announcement that he needed to be ==given== enough shares for him to own 25% of the outstanding. Not that he would have clearance to purchase them to achieve the same goal, but that, in the purest distillation, to be gifted them.

To have made this statement after he not only earlier - 2015? - proclaimed “I will be the last one out”; after on Jan 4 2017 at the Gigafactory told a group of Wall St. professionals, including me, “You have nothing to worry about my selling any shares, at least not until I need to fund Mars colonization“; and then after selling shares - chasing the market downward as he funded his TWTR purchase - boggles any investor’s imagination.

Having voted “No” for his 2018 incentive package - for reasons I have laid out in an earlier, recent, post - makes it that much easier to overcome my distaste for the Delaware court’s ruling and its overreach of (other) investors - other shareholders!, and once again vote No.

Summarizing:
Mr Musk will not head this company for the entire time I - with my descendants - expect to be owning the handsome position I have built in what I consider to be the ascendant corporation of our time. He no longer has my vote of confidence and I would be happy to see his replacement at the helm, sooner rather than later.
Yes. Yes. Yes. Finally someone puts it in solid, rational thought.
 
No, that document is only for when there is a driver. There is no log of the "fleet response" interventions for driverless Waymos that are public, because Waymo doesn't consider them a disengagement.
That's what I said too. @alexxs88 accused me of lying about it.

I could have been mistaken (I wasn't), but I certainly was not lying.

My opinion stands that these "fleet response" interventions are costing Waymo a lot of money and they help keep Waymo from scaling.

I believe that Tesla's end-to-end training will make fleet responses very rare. This is one of the reasons Waymo will not be able to compete.
 
I admit Im in awe of the steel balls this man have in completely contradicting himself multiple times in the span of months. Elon and EVs were his enemy not long ago.
He used to have a Tesla. He's not against EVs, he's against subsidies and mandates to end sales of ICE cars. He's also against capping our fossil fuel production. In short, he favors free markets.
 
Well, let’s see if I can get you to reverse your downvote, or simply amass more such.

Yes, I most certainly am serious. I cannot abide someone who is a weasel with his words. Who dissembles. Who tergiversates (look those up if you have to).

I parsed out what is irresponsible in that statement; I can do it again:


We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention

So: what does the statement say of where we are?
  • We’re not AT the point.
    • We’re not even getting to the point.
      • We’re STARTING.
What point? The point that,
  • IF bugs are fixed, we’ll have a good product.
This is some 7 1/2 years after proclaiming reaching by year’s end (end 2017) US coast-to-coast self-driving without interventions.
In retrospect, that was a mistake. A rather large one, yet one that I and many - most, I am sure - accepted and forgave.

But a man who does not learn from his mistakes, but repeats and repeats and repeats what is effectively the same mistake is someone whose word means nothing. Who cannot be trusted.

A man who did not get my vote for an enormous incentive - by far the largest in nominal terms in the history of the world, and very likely in real terms as well - and who will not get my vote again this month.

Someone who does not belong at the helm of this critical company.

I long ago proclaimed myself as a long-term investor; I have tried to make this thread focused on same, rather than one for traders or for those who make use of derivative products.

I will today clarify that. I do not consider TSLA a “long term” holding, rather, I have set it up in our investment trust to be a multi-generational one. Just as one side of my family, those who over two centuries ago created the glass industry in Pittsburgh, “always” had PPG in the family, and another side held Std. Oil and its progeny as multigenerational investments.
As such, that Elon Musk presently is the company’s CEO is of fleeting consequence. There WILL be a time when he no longer is CEO, nor retired, nor even alive. He WILL be followed by others.

This misstatement - this series of misstatements - is serious but it is not the gravest he has made concerning Tesla. For me, that was his announcement that he needed to be ==given== enough shares for him to own 25% of the outstanding. Not that he would have clearance to purchase them to achieve the same goal, but that, in the purest distillation, to be gifted them.

To have made this statement after he not only earlier - 2015? - proclaimed “I will be the last one out”; after on Jan 4 2017 at the Gigafactory told a group of Wall St. professionals, including me, “You have nothing to worry about my selling any shares, at least not until I need to fund Mars colonization“; and then after selling shares - chasing the market downward as he funded his TWTR purchase - boggles any investor’s imagination.

Having voted “No” for his 2018 incentive package - for reasons I have laid out in an earlier, recent, post - makes it that much easier to overcome my distaste for the Delaware court’s ruling and its overreach of (other) investors - other shareholders!, and once again vote No.

Summarizing:
Mr Musk will not head this company for the entire time I - with my descendants - expect to be owning the handsome position I have built in what I consider to be the ascendant corporation of our time. He no longer has my vote of confidence and I would be happy to see his replacement at the helm, sooner rather than later.

A number of other folks have commented, several of which have similar sentiments to mine... rather than respond to this point by point, I'll just offer that I think Elon is a different animal than just about anybody we've seen before that's running companies like this.

His mental outlook is such that I think there's practically zero layer between what he understands/believes/thinks, and what we get. That's not to say he tells us everything, as there are obviously times where he's not commented on future projects, etc... but what we do get is pretty unprocessed. In essence we see the sausage being made, both with the man and the endeavors.

We see flying water tanks, missed landing highlight reels, spectacular rocket failures, looks at vehicle development, beta software versions, see mis-steps, changes in direction, scuttling of plans, firing of teams, etc... with the companies. We see tweets about relationships, politics, ideas, sophomoric jokes, stupid stuff, etc, with the man. And whimsical things like volume controls that go to 11 and flamethowers as products.

Does all of this happen with other companies? Much of it (maybe not the flamethrowers). They just tend to keep it behind closed doors and have a heavy spin layer that gives the public a pretty package of what they'd like to portray. Elon often pulls back the curtain, and we see the ugly workings instead. And as he says, the goal is to be "less wrong".

Does it change the end result? Not really. Does it give a fascinating and helpful view of the real workings along the way? I think so.

I'd much rather see the progress and mis-steps in development and appreciate what it took to get the final product, than have a company announce a finished product after the same amount of time of internal development.

But I appreciate not everybody can handle that. Thet get spooked, or nervous. Or they assume that they are seeing problems that don't occur elsewhere (they do), but prefer blissful ignorance. I like taking the covers off things... taking them apart. I install the alpha versions. I find the process as interesting as I enjoy the product. Oh, and I really could care less what the guy building my technical device thinks about a random event or person.

So, do I think it's disgraceful to hear the firsthand assessment of a brilliant CEO on the status of a beta product he's building? Nope. But I recognize it's not for everybody.
 
Some of us think we need a Shotwell for Tesla.

That is a very different issue than is the 2018 compensation agreement. We should separate those issues. Were there a "Shotwell" for Tesla I would be doubling down on my 2014 position in TSLA.
While I do not agree that we need a different CEO for Tesla, I certainly agree with you in general.

A DEAL IS A DEAL.

Anyone voting NO cannot be trusted anymore, since this SIMPLY means this person finds it fair to in retrospect void an already made deal.

Nothing more, nothing less.

Personal opinions about Musk: don't matter
Personal opinions about the compensation plan: don't matter.

It is a contract that was agreed upon by shareholders and voided by a 9-share-guy and a judge.

If someone cannot get these facts straight and take the right consequences, then I fear we are even more "advanced" in the wrong direction than I already knew.
 
So, do I think it's disgraceful to hear the firsthand assessment of a brilliant CEO on the status of a beta product he's building? Nope. But I recognize it's not for everybody.
The post of the person one cannot say anything against without having more spare time in the near future clearly shows a complete lack of understanding on how software development works.
I am personally in charge of a very small project currently where we just rewrote everything from scratch for the 4th time because things have changed. Not because anyone was lying. Not because we are stupid.

But I understand that this is too complex for some to grasp.
 
The post of the person one cannot say anything against without having more spare time in the near future clearly shows a complete lack of understanding on how software development works.
I am personally in charge of a very small project currently where we just rewrote everything from scratch for the 4th time because things have changed. Not because anyone was lying. Not because we are stupid.

But I understand that this is too complex for some to grasp.
I'm not sure what this is saying. That Elon fires anybody who disagrees with him?

They've admitted they've gone back to square one multiple times on FSD... so I'm not sure I get the intended point?
 
He used to have a Tesla. He's not against EVs, he's against subsidies and mandates to end sales of ICE cars. He's also against capping our fossil fuel production. In short, he favors free markets.

"Free markets?!?"

Not on this planet. Fossil fuel interests have spent over a century piling up special tax credits, all while literally dumping all their externalities on Earth at no cost.

As EM said it best, "If I wanted subsidies, I'd be in the fossil fuel business." [paraphrased]
 
"Free markets?!?"

Not on this planet. Fossil fuel interests have spent over a century piling up special tax credits, all while literally dumping all their externalities on Earth at no cost.

As EM said it best, "If I wanted subsidies, I'd be in the fossil fuel business." [paraphrased]
I was referring to EV subsidies. The fossil fuel subsidies is a more extensive conversation. Probably a lot tougher to root out.
 
Sorry, but this is a straight lie. Below you'll see ALL of the instances when someone physically had to go and retrieve the autonomous vehicle. I've also attached the document that contains ALL of the instances when a Waymo operator had to intervene in ANY way. The fact that you refuse to acknowledge this data tells me you're treating this more like a religion than actually trying to understand what's happening.


View attachment 1055163





As shown above, this is a straight lie. There is publicly available data for Waymo. Why are you discarding it?
You're wrong and owe @Usain an apology. As @MP3Mike notes these DMV reports only cover operations under Waymo's DMV testing permits (which typically have safety drivers). These days Waymo mostly operates under their DMV and CPUC deployment permits. Those reporting requirements are much different, to my knowledge they only report crashes.

If you have any evidence Waymo reports Fleet Response events while operating under their deployment permits, I'd like to see it. I and others have looked, without success.
 
He used to have a Tesla. He's not against EVs, he's against subsidies and mandates to end sales of ICE cars. He's also against capping our fossil fuel production. In short, he favors free markets.
He says climate change is a myth, wants windmills essentially banned, NOAA and the EPA dismantled and he is shaking down the oil and gas industries for a billion in political contributions, says EVs can’t be used for trips, is trying to woo unions that want EVs stopped. So, OK.