Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

If I could get solar here for $16k, I'd already have it. The return is more complicated to calculate, because your panels are basically worth zero after 15 years and your shingles need replaced (in Florida good luck making much past 15 years)

What happens at 15 years ? Mine work great since 2015 and expect them to last beyond 2030

 

[Skryll]

You seem confused on the original post. In Q1 Elon said they are almost sold out of Cybertrucks for the year.

That's obviously not the case. You keep jumping around that.

Hint: they are making new ones when they run out

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Doesn't one of the small ones represent the Roadster?

Roadster
Sub compact
Robotaxi ?????

 

[growler23]

All I know is, armed with our fine shareholder support, the Muskonomy now has what it needs to surmount that very real legal threat from Delaware.
May the Muskonomy synergies continue and grow in unexpected ways.
May the retail shareholder support thrive.
May we keep eyes on the Mission. Today, as Elon said, we start not a new chapter, but a new book. The Best Book.
Let's freakin' go.

 

[Thekiwi]

TLDR: 4680 is very much alive and kicking, despite some people that suddenly went missing in the past few days saying otherwise. Lower cost than what Tesla was paying a year ago (I'm assuming equivalent cells, so high Nickel ones, NCA and NMC from Panasonic and LG). Order cancelations from other manufacturers drove price way down due to oversupply, path to cost parity with current price by the end of the year, much more details in the post

https://twitter.com/x/status/1801418835343339886

Worth showing in full:

“Summary of 4680 Related Comments from the Annual Meeting:

1) They have a clear path the 4680 being the most competitive cell from a manufacturing efficiency standpoint.

2) Cell manufacturing gives Tesla resilience if there are changes in the geopolitical situation. It's good to have independence in cell manufacturing.

3) The cathode refinery and lithium refinery are a night and day difference from traditional factories of those types. You can eat off the floor in the Tesla facilities - not recommended for the others.

4) Tesla is going very vertical in batteries, but Tesla views it as a wise investment that will pay off more than people realize.

5) Cell prices are so low now that the biggest cost reduction opportunity is now the rest of the vehicle rather than the battery pack.

6) Tesla sees a path to cost parity by the end of the year between in house cells and externally sourced cells. It will be difficult, but they think it's achievable.

7) Although their in house cells currently cost more than externally sourced cells, they're actually cheaper than cells they were buying from external suppliers a year ago (because cell prices have come down so much).

My thoughts

1) Tesla still believe they're sitting on the best cell manufacturing technology in the world. I would agree in terms of its potential. They still have a ways to go!

2) Despite rumors and reports, it sounds like Tesla is very committed to the 4680 ramp. It's not just about cost reduction, but also risk mitigation and supply chain stability. It's super important to have a plan B in the face of China's battery monopoly.

3) Most reports are currently indicating that Tesla hasn't cracked the dry cathode and are importing dry cathode material. If they're still able to achieve cost parity with external suppliers that's very impressive! That cathode material won't be cheap, and it'll be a hassle for their supply chain (fragile and volatile).If they ever do crack the dry cathode, they'll be able to scale MUCH faster and bring costs significantly lower.

4) Yes, there are more opportunities to reduce the manufacturing cost of the vehicle outside of the battery pack now (unboxed process, etc). However, it's also true that there are manufacturing tax credits and customer tax credits available if more of the vehicle get 4680s, which are worth thousands of dollars per vehicle. But, of course, how long can we expect those tax credits to be available with potentially a new administration coming in next year?Have a good night y'all!”

 

[Tronguy]

If I could get solar here for $16k, I'd already have it. The return is more complicated to calculate, because your panels are basically worth zero after 15 years and your shingles need replaced (in Florida good luck making much past 15 years)

Um. Please take that back?

The SO and I had 9 kW of amorphous silicon cells installed on the roof in mid 2008. Total max output power (not normally hit, the sun has to be at just the right angle on a clear day) is 7.8 kW using two inverters.

There was some fump-de-dump with the bureaucracy, so the actual, "We're getting all the bells and whistles" on SRECs and such didn't kick in until early 2009.

It's now 2024. The panels are doing their things; on a non-completely-clear day I observed the larger inverter chugging along at 4.5 kW out of 4.8kW max and the smaller inverter (3kW) at 2.5 kW. Not bad.

The SO and I get about 12 MW-hr/year out of the things. In New Jersey, on the program we are grandfathered into, we get an SREC (Solar Renewable Energy Credit) for every MW-hr generated by the panels; at this time, they're worth $198 on the spot market. That'll end for us at the fifteen year mark in October. We'll then switch over to a different SREC system that gets us $25/MW-hr of energy generated.

Just so we're clear: The SRECs are for energy generated by grid-tied inverters; it's not how much is delivered to the power company.

Being connected to the grid sets us back about $4.95/month. On the other hand, we seem to have a surplus of around 2 MW-hr/year, some of which goes into moving the Teslas around. With Net Metering, a tariff that carries excess energy generation forward from month to month, we earn about $150-$250 a year as a generator, selling energy to PSE&G wholesale. With Net Metering, if the carried-forward amount goes to zero, then we pay retail, just like everybody else.

The net effect, though, is that we seriously haven't paid for electricity since fall of 2008. Really.

About once every couple of years I get up on the roof with one of those long-handled window washer sticks and a bucket and clean the whole business off.

Now, we're using amorphous silicon cells. When one looks at these, they're blue, but kind of mottled looking. At the time of install, these were far cheaper than crystalline panels, which look a flat, dead blue/black. Crystalline panels are also lots more efficient, so one needs fewer of them to reach a given energy generation goal.

Finally: Back when we did this, the approved technology method of the time had one hooking up panels in long strings, putting those strings in parallel, and then feeding the whole conglomeration into a DC->AC inverter that generates 240 VAC. So, for example, one part of the roof has three strings of seven panels each, with each of those strings wired in parallel, for a total of 21 panels. This goes to one inverter. The other set are two strings of 11 panels, also wired in parallel, which goes to the other inverter. So the inverters see incoming voltage and current that ranges from Zero/Zero to some maximum voltage and current, then back to 0/0 at night. Turns out that all of the above is relatively inefficient, since panels have manufacturing variations, resulting in some strings having higher voltages/power than other strings that they're in parallel with; as a result, with 9 kW on the roof, we only get 7.8 kW out, max, for an 86% efficiency.

Modern systems put a DC-DC converter on the back of each panel; one side of the DC-DC is hooked up to the actual solar panel. The other side is wired in series with, roughly, ten other panels. Software communicating between the converters in a string like this fixes the output voltage of a string to 300V. Since the secondaries of the DC-DC converters all have the same current (they're wired in series), those panels with more power than other panels end up having more than ~30V across the secondary, while those with less power have less than ~30V, but with the total assembly always having 300V. Additional strings of ten can then be wired in parallel with the first string so connected, so the whole assembly is at 300V; and that fixed 300V is then fed into a more-or-less fixed input voltage inverter, or inverter/battery box (this is what a Tesla PowerWall is), that converts to 240 VAC. Efficiency of this kind of system is over 90, more than making up for any losses in the DC-DC converters.

Main point, though: This system is still going strong at 14.8 years. When do I expect that the whole business, inverters and all, are going to die?

By the by: The whole business was paid off within six years of the install. At this point, the SRECs are just gravy.

 

[CorneliusXX]

View attachment 1056318

View attachment 1056319

From the 2024 TSLA Proxy - Elon is capped from borrowing against his shares the lesser of $3.5B or 25% of the value of his pledged shares. P152, f1 shows that as of 3/31/24, Elon has pledged 238,441,261 shares as collateral for his indebtedness. TSLA's stock price around that time was $175.79, making the pledged collateral worth approximately $41.9B and 25% of that valued at approximately $10.5B. Since Elon is capped at $3.5B, why does he have $41.9B pledged?

BOD is MIA.

Protection against the stock falling.

 

[mickle]

ir.tesla.com:

Tesla Is Now a Texas Corporation​

​

AUSTIN, TX, June 13, 2024 – At today’s Annual Stockholders’ Meeting, Tesla stockholders overwhelmingly approved the ratification of the 2018 CEO Performance Award and the redomestication of the Company to Texas. Tesla has submitted all filings to effectuate its conversion into a Texas corporation and can confirm that the Company is now incorporated in Texas.

 

[spacerfc]

View attachment 1056318

View attachment 1056319

From the 2024 TSLA Proxy - Elon is capped from borrowing against his shares the lesser of $3.5B or 25% of the value of his pledged shares. P152, f1 shows that as of 3/31/24, Elon has pledged 238,441,261 shares as collateral for his indebtedness. TSLA's stock price around that time was $175.79, making the pledged collateral worth approximately $41.9B and 25% of that valued at approximately $10.5B. Since Elon is capped at $3.5B, why does he have $41.9B pledged?

BOD is MIA.

Did you not read the whole thing? The $3.5B cap is for actual amount of loans they take out against the pledged shares, not for the value of the pledged shares themselves. There's nothing preventing Elon from pledging $41.9B worth of shares but only takes out $1B worth of loan against it. In fact, the statement literally says "the aggregate loan or investment amount collateralized by our directors and executive officers’ pledged shares was less than 1% of the total value of the pledged shares.", so it's likely Elon's loan is only 1% * $41.9B = ~$400M.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Go to the CT forum. Anyone ordering white, AWD, AT tires is instantly getting VINs. End of the quarter rush.

Thanks. Switched to white interior and delivery shows june-august now. Should speed things up

 

[Tony73]

100 million optimus a year . I know he is crazy, but he is optimistic high-achieving crazy, and someone has to dream big
If Tesla ever get to make a million a year, its going to be amazing.

It’s not so far fetched. A hundred million cars are sold every year.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Site is clogging up still.
Bear yellow alert.
BTD

 

[sdtslafan]

Did you not read the whole thing? The $3.5B cap is for actual amount of loans they take out against the pledged shares, not for the value of the pledged shares themselves. There's nothing preventing Elon from pledging $41.9B worth of shares but only takes out $1B worth of loan against it. In fact, the statement literally says "the aggregate loan or investment amount collateralized by our directors and executive officers’ pledged shares was less than 1% of the total value of the pledged shares.", so it's likely Elon's loan is only 1% * $41.9B = ~$400M.

Guess we won’t be seeing him for a while…

 

[Singuy]

Did you not read the whole thing? The $3.5B cap is for actual amount of loans they take out against the pledged shares, not for the value of the pledged shares themselves. There's nothing preventing Elon from pledging $41.9B worth of shares but only takes out $1B worth of loan against it. In fact, the statement literally says "the aggregate loan or investment amount collateralized by our directors and executive officers’ pledged shares was less than 1% of the total value of the pledged shares.", so it's likely Elon's loan is only 1% * $41.9B = ~$400M.

D&S has a PHD in posting sources that defeats his entire argument within such post due to a failure of reading the whole thing or understanding what is written.

 

[MC3OZ]

It’s not so far fetched. A hundred million cars are sold every year.

Raw materials or batteries for an Optimus are unlikely to be the problem.

Production lines are likely to be compact and can simply be duplicated.

The hard part will be convincing Optimus to help build more Optimus.

I can use an Optimus ASAP to feed the cats when we go on holidays

To be fair, I should state that they can also walk dogs, but with the wrong dog, that might be more challenging,.

 

[aubreymcfato]

This is useful:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1801428668490666073

I'll paste the content:
Here's the full breakdown of Elon's presentation, including Q&A session, at the 2024 Tesla Shareholder Meeting earlier today.

INTRODUCTION
1:36 FSD improving exponentially
4:04 How robotaxi will work
7:08 Autonomy could add $5 trillion value
8:37 Optimus could add $20 trillion value

PRESENTATION
12:54 Tesla's impact accelerating
15:38 6 millionth vehicle
16:48 Cybertruck
19:11 Updated Model 3
20:02 Model Y bestselling car
20:39 Tesla Semi starting volume prod
22:44 Future products
23:22 Supercharger network
25:44 4680 battery cell production
28:08 Huge energy storage growth
30:39 Software at Tesla
31:56 Real-world AI
32:42 Chips: HW3, HW4, Optimus37:31: AWS-type opportunity
39:21 FSD getting extremely good
43:50 Optimus progress & perspectivesQ&A
51:08 A thanks to Elon
52:28 Regular free trials for FSD
54:10 Disneyland & statistical FSD risk
56:57 Tesla valuation: 10X by 2029
58:07 Referral program
1:00:37 FSD transfers one more quarter
1:02:03 Elon's well-being & security
1:05:08 HVAC for homes
1:06:29 Factory tour for kids
1:08:07 Donald Trump fan of Cybertruck
1:09:24 Interventions for unsupervised FSD
1:10:54 Shoutout to @TeslaBoomerMama
1:11:33 Batteries only fraction of car price
1:15:35 Cybertruck could go international next year
1:19:09 Cybertruck Foundation series
1:19:45 Data collection & compute
1:26:47 Optimus to be equipped with LLMs
1:28:17 Optimus will be generalized
1:31:22 Elon helps accelerate Tesla
1:33:49 Parking & charging close to Starbase
1:35:28 Lithium refining
1:38:03 Suggestion: Deliver Teslas at night

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Fossil externalities are the issue.

In the west fossil receives very little in actual subsidies. In the US, for example, subsidies are in the 15-20b/year range while taxes are >10x that. And that 15-20b includes coal and NG, used to generate electricity for EVs. It also includes stuff like depletion which also applies to mining for battery materials.

Not direct subsidies--it's all about Investment Tax Credits and other tax codes specifically tailored to the fossil fuel industry that can make oil and gas extraction stunningly lucrative. This has been the case for many, many decades.

And it's not just in the US. Globally, it added up to just a hair under ELEVEN BILLION DOLLARS A DAY in profit in 2022:

Oil and gas industry earned $4 trillion last year, says IEA chief

The global oil and gas industry's profits in 2022 jumped to some $4 trillion from an average of $1.5 trillion in recent years, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

That mind-blowing amount of money, in turn, funds this, a decades-long campaign to lie and fool the masses to continue with the status quo:

The Power of Big Oil | FRONTLINE

Watch FRONTLINE's three-part documentary examining the fossil fuel industry’s history of casting doubt and delaying action on climate change.

www.pbs.org

And:

Big Oil vs the World tells the 40 year story of how the oil industry delayed action on climate change

BBC three-part series features never-before-seen documents, exclusive interviews with industry players, and testimony from leading scientists, politicians and CEOs

www.bbc.com

Yet 99.8% of those buying gas at the pump, or sending a check to their methane company, have absolutely no idea of the evil they're funding . . . this sort of thing rarely ends well. Hence, the critical importance that Tesla do very, very well.

 

[Mengy]

D&S has a PHD in posting sources that defeats his entire argument within such post due to a failure of reading the whole thing or understanding what is written.

That's because he reaches to find the negative in any and everything. He reaches so hard it stretches to the point of breaking, which, like above, happens to him regularly.

I don't have anyone on ignore as I like to read all points of view here, even the ones I disagree with, but I no longer respond to D&S posts, heck I won't even like, dislike, or even post a laughing face on them. I simply ignore them because the majority of his posts are honestly worthless, they aren't contributing anything useful. He only posts one extreme side without ever acknowledging or even discussing the other side. Such a narrow focus is far too limiting to be helpful in my opinion.

 

[cliff harris]

Megapack 3 will absorb the sub station. Tesla Energy will stay on top of Stationary through innovation.

I have to admit I found this to be very unlikely. I'm in the middle of getting a 1.2mwp solar farm built in the UK. The switchgear associated with a grid connection is incredibly big, complex and stupidly expensive. And this is the grid company demanding all this. They absolutely do not care if this makes your solar site more expensive.
In our case, even our small solar farm with no battery has to have TWO substations. One is the 'site substation' which is basically our switchgear that connects all the inverter wiring together, and the other is the grid substation which contains the transformer to go from 410v to 11,000v, plus disconnection gear for emergency disconnects if there is a lightning strike etc.
It has literally taken 3 years to get the grid people to finalize their demands for the location, specification anf earthing requirements of all of this, plus a huge amount of paperwork and cash.

Elon might think, in theory 'you can just plug the wires in', but not grid company is going to let anybody do that. They need absolute, firm, total separation of what part of the grid is their problem, and what part is your problem, with all the associated legal responsibility, and real risk of electrical fires, and so-on.

I'll be absolutely stunned if there is a situation where you can 'just plug the wires in' to a megapack in the UK, and I suspect other countries power grids are just as safety-obsessed and bureaucracy-obsessed as ours.
No industry that has phrases like "Connections Use of System Charging Code Modification Proposal process" is going to be casual about plugging in 11,000v cables.

 

[cliff harris]

Possibly depending on the amount of import tax, Tesla might need to source EU model 3s from Fremont again.

It really seems crazy to me that they still don't make the model 3 in Berlin. Its the smallest car in the lineup and NOT made in Europe?