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...what?

The buttonwood agreement (founding doc of the NYSE for those unaware) was just was a simple agreement among 24 stockbrokers in NY. It didn't have anything to do with the oversight or governance of the NYSE itself beyond these 2 specific things-- brokers would only deal with each other, and commissions were to be 0.25%. That's it.

It had literally nothing to do with the US constitution, nor would anything in it have any bearing on what is constitutional or not.

Perhaps you're misapplying the historical standard the supreme court is currently using in 2nd amendment cases? Even then that would be wrong both because there's no equivalent to the 2nd amendment in the constitution for securities (on the contrary they make it very clear in the commerce clause that regulating such commerce is specifically allowed to the federal government- which is why the SEC in and of itself is absolutely constitutional no matter what you think of its policies today), and because unlike the historical references using in the 2nd amendment cases, the Buttonwood agreement wasn't an actual law anywhere.




Yeah- they can't though. Again Buttonwood isn't actually a law... at all... and it has zero content about enforcement of anything beyond being agreeing not to buy/sell except between brokers-- and the fixed rate of commission (and the rate thing went away in 1975). You can do all the fraud you like under Buttonwood as long as it doesn't break those 2 rules... (nor is there even a fine, or any other consequence, listed for breaking the 2 rules it DOES have)

The entire reason the SEC was created was people were doing a LOT of securities fraud and existing regulation (such as existed at all typically at the STATE LAW level, not an old gentleman's agreement with no enforcement or penalty) was not preventing it very well.

Even before the SEC, SCOTUS was very clear regulation of this stuff was a valid government action- see for example Hall v. Geiger-Jones Co where Justice McKenna writes such state laws are aimed at fraud and that "the prevention of deception is within the competency of government"

As those state laws proved insufficient in light of the market crash, we got the Securities Act a few years later to initiate regulate original issue of securities across state lines under the power of the interstate commerce clause, and the next year the Securities Exchange Act to regulate secondary trading of same. The original law had the FTC as its enforcement agency, the second act created and transferred that authority to the SEC.



Anyway-the entire point of the ruling in Jarkesy is that things like securities fraud charges that carry fines from the SEC must be heard by federal courts---with a right to a jury available-- not the internal administrative judge ones the SEC was using because they're much faster and more directly familiar with the specific subject matter.

There was no question at all in the case regarding the constitutionally of the SEC to regulate securities in general, let alone to even exist. Nor was there such a question in the case that ended Chevron.
Nearly everything you say is correct IMHO. My point, partly tongue in cheek so I should have perhaps used an /s, was in response to one and only one Supreme Court Justice whose perspective on Originalism/s is well known to be that common practice at the time of the Constitution approval should be the only test to be applied for present day situations. His opinions do not depend on law, they depend on colonial practice. I apologize if my post made you think anything I wrote was actually about law./s

FWIW, my limited understanding of these issues stems from study done many years ago, which included highly informative discourses on the history of US law by Laurence Friedman.
He, probably more than most manages to insert an ever so slightly caustic sense of humor in all the semi-deified views of US legal history.
 
Robotaxi-level FSD will not operate on HW3

But we are still say 50x away from robotaxi levels.

How much larger is the model going to need to get? Certainly at least another 10x in size.

No way in the world HW3 will handle that. And HW4 will also be challenged.
These are a lot of very definitive statements based on... nothing? Unless they are based on your twenty years experience of coding neural networks?
FWIW I've worked with them for that long, and see no reason to draw any of those conclusions.
 
Why would Tesla owe owners anything? I was never sold a robotaxi. I was sold a Tesla that might become feature complete.
I think Elon is being generous with FSD transfers to help smooth over any hard feelings ... which I think is a good idea.

In a few years all Teslas will be sold with unsupervised FSD. It'll just be included in the car's price. How could you withhold the technology that will save so many lives? The only option will be for commercial use.

Of course, if you choose to buy a brand other than Tesla, well ... that's on you. 😃
 
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Better start a class action suit then. Put your money where your feelings are...

AFAIK Tesla has not officially announced >L2 software being available at all--- let alone officially announcing it won't be available to those on older HW---- and doing that would be the basis of any such suit. Until then it remains a promise Tesla might still fulfil in any number of ways already outlined. Most of which would have some additional cost to Tesla that would impact their bottom line and thus would be relevant to investors.

I, apparently unlike you, am confident enough in Teslas legal dept. to know they wouldn't just announce such a thing without having plans in place to handle those legacy customers to which they still have an outstanding legal/financial obligation.


Or you could just realize that a new HW 4 Tesla is cheaper than ever, and go buy one!

Why would I pay extra money for a thing I was promised with a prior purchase for no additional cost? That seems extremely foolish advice.

Doubly so when we have no idea if HW4 will be enough either any my existing HW3 car continues to perform flawlessly--- what sense would spending tens of thousands of extra dollars make here?


Zero hassle, zero drama, concerns addressed. However, you couldn't remain eternally pessimistic, which could present an issue.

Not sure how you read "This thing will have a cost, but that cost will be massively dwarfed by the insanely high revenue generalized RTs will bring in" as "eternally pessimistic"
 
Agreed in general, but it does leave Tesla with a notable liability to existing owners whose cars can't be upgraded but were told they'd have self driving cars they could use as RTs.

it's dwarfed by the revenue Tesla would see from actually having working generalized RTs of course but it's still a thing that exists and will show up on the books.

What if the people owning the car at that point is not the original buyer, but someone who bought it used? I think simply allowing FSD transfers and maybe offering some "early adopter" incentive to those people would smooth over a lot of these potential problems.
 
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Are you suggesting you think deliveries will be up YoY compared to Q2 2023? That was 466,140 deliveries and a beat of that would be a MUCH larger # than I've seen anyone suggest will be announced..

Both street consensus and Troys # are tens of thousands of cars lower- and both would show EV sales are down (at least for Tesla even if not for everyone) YoY.
Yes... I just don't believe the short-term fluctuation stuff yet. Long-term, the growth is there.

Prepared to be wrong.

Aren't interest rates higher today than they were 12mo. ago?
 
What if the people owning the car at that point is not the original buyer, but someone who bought it used?


AFAIK FSD stays with the car as long as it is never sold bac to Tesla, so any obligation Tesla has to a car that bought FSD would likewise convey to the new owner.

Similar to how free lifetime supercharging on the oldest Teslas convey with the car... (the later FUSC instead had specific terms added to communicate it did NOT convey- no such language has ever existed in buying FSD though)
 
It was tongue-in-cheek, please don't take offence. I could have put it another way: "I wish we could all underestimate TSLA's performance by that much!" At $210 as I write this.

I thought of doing a poll today: Will TSLA ever go below $200 again? Seems obvious it will since we haven't even spent a full day above $200 on the current streak and TSLA has a high beta. Yet... If Q2 P&D surprises to the upside and 8/8 on the horizon, who knows?

OT: It was cool that dual-citizen Alanis sang both national anthems at Game 7 of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Our 'Mericun cousins don't know how hard it is for us Canucks not to have won the 'Cup for 31 years! Imagine if the Toronto Blue Jays had won 'The World Series' for 31 years in a row! How would the Yankees / Astros / Braves / etc. feel? :confused:

PS Nice that on July 1st, Canada Day, I can still see my portfolio go up so much with the NYSE open! :)
 
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It was tongue-in-cheek, please don't take offence. I could have put it another way: "I wish we could all underestimate TSLA's performance by that much!" At $210 as I write this.

I thought of doing a poll today: Will TSLA ever go below $200 again? Seems obvious it will since we haven't even spent a full day above $200 on the current streak and TSLA has a high beta. Yet... If Q2 P&D surprises to the upside and 8/8 on the horizon, who knows?

OT: It was cool that dual-citizen Alanis sang both national anthems at Game 7 of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Our 'Mericun cousins don't know how hard it is for Canucks to not have won the 'Cup for 31 years! Imagine if the Toronto Blue Jays had won 'The World Series' for 31 years in a row! How would the Yankees feel? :confused:
Oh, no offense taken.
OT, True that!
 
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Perhaps oddly, and certainly related to FSD 12xx, my new Model Y is my favorite Tesla yet, despite seeing, as yesterday, six Model Y all waiting at the same red traffic light. Just because it is common does not detract from innate goodness. My very first 2014 Model P85D+ was fairly rare and delightful, for its time.

If everything goes the way some people are expecting, the ONLY other cars you’ll see at a red light are Teslas in white, black, gray, or red. Six? That will be the rarity to only see six.
 
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It's not possible to swap existing HW4 (and likely AI 5 or whatever they named the next version) into HW3 (or older) cars currently, this is definitely true.

However, if they wanted to, there's nothing preventing the engineering of a retrofit module that has the brains of HW4 or newer, that works in older cars. Maybe AI 5 or whatever it is would not be possible, if it has significantly higher power (and thus cooling) requirements, but HW4 would not be an issue.

Just do a layout revision that has all the HW3 connector placements and physical shape, ditch the extra connectors that HW4 added (though it would be nice to keep the USB3 for glovebox and let us upgrade to the glovebox USB3 port too, shouldn't be hard to fit in), swap the DC-DC section to one that is happy on "12v" vs "16v" system, and you're pretty much done, you may need an updated heatsink as well depending on how close you can get component placement (might need the interior cooling channels in different places or the shape on top/bottom to touch cooled parts will likely change, etc).

Sadly, I expect Tesla will never go this far into upgrades, as probably the graphs of the cost of such upgrades vs number sold probably don't cross over anywhere profitably with the graph of prices people are willing to pay vs potential upgrade customers. If they did though, there's a few other uprades I'd like (amber turn signals and the newer pre-highland headlights).

I would love to pay to upgrade my 2018 Model 3 to Ryzen (the Atom is sooo slowwww), getting better FSD performance would just be a bonus. I don't really want to have to buy a new car to do so... though at least the Model Y exists now, as I would prefer it to the 3 if I was buying again. My car is just about to be paid off in the next month or so, but I'd rather save the payments than go in and buy yet another new car.

I never plan to rent my car out as a robotaxi, so to make me happy, FSD only needs to be good enough for hands-free (and preferably eyes-free or at least eyes-intermittent) driving in normal (i.e. not construction) highway conditions. So HW3 may never quite live up to the promise (and it was certainly implied if not outright said that my purchase of FSD would include upgrade to HW as necessary), but probably HW4 would be "good enough" for my purposes.

That said, I do frequently use FSD on city streets now that it has gotten reasonably good, but mostly just as an improved TACC (which I am rather annoyed we can't engage without disabling FSD in settings, now).
 
Just do a layout revision that has all the HW3 connector placements and physical shape, ditch the extra connectors that HW4 added (though it would be nice to keep the USB3 for glovebox and let us upgrade to the glovebox USB3 port too, shouldn't be hard to fit in), swap the DC-DC section to one that is happy on "12v" vs "16v" system,
Actually, you need at least two different designs. One for 12v Intel Atom based vehicles, and another for 16v AMD Ryzen based vehicles. (And that isn't even counting the Model S/X, especially the "legacy" ones with the vertical screens.)

I'm hopeful that they will make AI5 based retrofits available, I wouldn't bother with HW4, but that likely wouldn't be until 2026-2027.
 
I think Elon is being generous with FSD transfers to help smooth over any hard feelings ... which I think is a good idea.

In a few years all Teslas will be sold with unsupervised FSD. It'll just be included in the car's price. How could you withhold the technology that will save so many lives? The only option will be for commercial use.

Of course, if you choose to buy a brand other than Tesla, well ... that's on you. 😃
Exactly! Between today's rock-bittom prices, and the opportunnity to exchange your FSD from HW3 for a HW4 for FREE, TWICE NOW, it's a hard case to make that Tesla should be on the hook for past "promises."
 
We could break through this line around 225. Maybe not until 8/8 (the morning of).
"I'm just an Optimus" (my quote, also Elon's lately).

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