Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

It's gonna be a wild and crazy week!

 

[Cobos]

Is Ultra Red the same cherry red that was in Europe?

No.
The Cherry red is too dark IMHO, it is more a burgundy color. Fairly similiar to the original Signatur Model S color. The new Ultra Red is on the other hand very similar to the classical red multicoat. Perhaps a very tiny touch darker, but impossible to see any difference unless the cars are next to each other. I thought the Cherry red would be a gorgeous color but in the dark and in sunshine it underwhelms, entirely in my opinion of course.

As I am on my third red Model S, I am obviously an expert on red colors.

 

[Usain]

I hope people can read between the lines here.

Robotaxi-level FSD will not operate on HW3

Notice, in order to get the purported 5x - 20x improvement in reliabilty (according to Musk), the model had to increase 5x in parameter size.

So no, Tesla could not simply train with more data for longer to get that large of an improvement. They needed to increase model size. As I've speculated in the past.

Now the # of parameters barely fits on HW3, and probably due to efficiency moves like reducing compute precision.

But we are still say 50x away from robotaxi levels.

How much larger is the model going to need to get? Certainly at least another 10x in size.

No way in the world HW3 will handle that. And HW4 will also be challenged.

I don't think even Elon knows for sure how capable HW3 and HW4 will eventually be. It does sound like Elon is laying the groundwork for lower expectations around HW3 performance though.

But as an investor, if robotaxi-level FSD requires AI5/HW5, that's totally fine. Just so there is a clear path to get there I'm very happy.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Remember, anything <5% is noise.
We appear to be approaching signal territory.

edit: I suspect this is short-horizon traders positioning for tomorrow's P&D numbers.

 

[Knightshade]

But as an investor, if robotaxi-level FSD requires AI5/HW5, that's totally fine. Just so there is a clear path to get there I'm very happy.

Agreed in general, but it does leave Tesla with a notable liability to existing owners whose cars can't be upgraded but were told they'd have self driving cars they could use as RTs.

it's dwarfed by the revenue Tesla would see from actually having working generalized RTs of course but it's still a thing that exists and will show up on the books.

 

[Musskiah]

Why is Tesla's rating SO bad? Pretty sad.
View attachment 1061228

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799584062983880739

Anyone suggesting that this could be a tactic to prevent fund managers from purchasing TSLA would obviously be promoting conspiracy theories.

 

[MartinAustin]

Remember, anything <5% is noise.
We appear to be approaching signal territory.

edit: I suspect this is short-horizon traders positioning for tomorrow's P&D numbers.

I think the numbers are going to surprise the harshest critics. (but not bulls) Slightly better than expected overall, following months of "EV sales are down" FUD (the rate of growth is down... sales are still growing)

 

[Waiting4M3]

Anyone suggestion that this could be a tactic to prevent fund managers from purchasing TSLA would obviously be promoting conspiracy theories.

Hanlon's razor probably applies here

 

[unk45]

No.
The Cherry red is too dark IMHO, it is more a burgundy color. Fairly similiar to the original Signatur Model S color. The new Ultra Red is on the other hand very similar to the classical red multicoat. Perhaps a very tiny touch darker, but impossible to see any difference unless the cars are next to each other. I thought the Cherry red would be a gorgeous color but in the dark and in sunshine it underwhelms, entirely in my opinion of course.

As I am on my third red Model S, I am obviously an expert on red colors.

I am now on my fourth red Tesla. The Ultra Red on my new Model Y seems to me also similar to MCR but obviously making that comparison from memory. The Ultra red seems more iridescent than any previous version. The new one actually changes perception of color based on reflectiveness and sun/cloud interactions. hence iradescent.

Perhaps oddly, and certainly related to FSD 12xx, my new Model Y is my favorite Tesla yet, despite seeing, as yesterday, six Model Y all waiting at the same red traffic light. Just because it is common does not detract from innate goodness. My very first 2014 Model P85D+ was fairly rare and delightful, for its time.

This new perspective on my part was accentuated only yesterday when I was driving through a typical South Florida intense thunderstorm. Five observations:
1. For the first time ever the automatic wipers worked!;
2. The FSD 12.3.6 showed "Full Self-Driving may be degraded";
3. Despite (2) FSD performed impeccably, certainly better than I would have done;
4. Upon reaching my destination, a strip-mall, the car entered the parking lot, stopped next to a vacant parking space and displayed the auto-park symbols, I initiated and it parked well, if slightly compulsive about perfect alignment;
5. Upon departing, just for experimentation, I connected FSD in my parking space, whereupon on it's own it left, navigated the slightly unusual mall pathway, blended to traffic for a left turn, then took me home with no interventions.

Those events, coupled with the best Red since a Citroën I had decades ago, make me very happy I moved from my too-big Model S Plaid to the less intense Model Y.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Agreed in general, but it does leave Tesla with a notable liability to existing owners whose cars can't be upgraded but were told they'd have self driving cars they could use as RTs.

it's dwarfed by the revenue Tesla would see from actually having working generalized RTs of course but it's still a thing that exists and will show up on the books.

Do we know if HW3 is upgradable in a Service Center? They could just swap the chip if the cameras don't change... So theoretically would be a opt-in thing, the customer should take the time and money to do it, and the care would be the same. Not a recall.

 

[Musskiah]

Agreed in general, but it does leave Tesla with a notable liability to existing owners whose cars can't be upgraded but were told they'd have self driving cars they could use as RTs.

I hope people can read between the lines here.

Robotaxi-level FSD will not operate on HW3

Let's assume this is the case: A new HW4 Tesla is much cheaper than either of my HW3 Teslas cost me.

 

[Musskiah]

June 21 was a Quad Witching expiry, and there was an incredible amount of call volume, likely many June 2024 calls purchased in early 2022 (by TE and his dad) as TSLA was at its highs. Isn't it interesting that the stock has inflected upward after June 21 (okay, technically June 24...) - almost as if it was suppressed until the calls expired. Eh, probably just a coincidence...

 

[Musskiah]

Hanlon's razor probably applies here

If Hanlon's razor were always true, every malicious person would simply be stupid. Ergo: Musskiah's razor applies "don't put compete faith in razors to explain the actions of humans"

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Somebody knows something.....

 

[jkirkwood001]

Therefore this happens... and it continues.
200+ by morning so it appears.

View attachment 1061209

Hope I didn't jinx it.

WRONG.

I mean, sure, you were 'right', @SOULPEDL . But you were WRONG!

 

[jerry33]

Do we know if HW3 is upgradable in a Service Center? They could just swap the chip if the cameras don't change... So theoretically would be a opt-in thing, the customer should take the time and money to do it, and the care would be the same. Not a recall.

It's been said HW3 isn't upgradable, although I recall during a presentation when the HW boards were described in detail it was mentioned that they could be swapped. (This might have been from HW2 to HW3).

 

[Knightshade]

Let's assume this is the case: A new HW4 Tesla is much cheaper than either of my HW3 Teslas cost me.

Ok- but first the post I was replying to speculated actual RT would require HW5... and second it doesn't matter if the MSRP changed, if Tesla "owes" <HW5 buyers robotaxis but can't deliver it on older HW they're on the hook for whatever makes those folks whole. Again this will be dwarfed by the revenue from HAVING generalized RTs, but it's still non-zero and will hit the bottom line at some point.

Do we know if HW3 is upgradable in a Service Center?

To HW4? It's not (new cars also have 4k cameras BTW, it's not just the driving computer)

It's been said HW3 isn't upgradable, although I recall during a presentation when the HW boards were described in detail it was mentioned that they could be swapped. (This might have been from HW2 to HW3).

HW3 was designed to be an easy swap into HW2.x cars.

HW4 was not, and would be cost prohibitive to try and swap (as is the Ryzen MCU-- both only work on newer 16v cars for example not the legacy 12v ones among other issues)

HW5 is unknown in regards to any of this..... I suppose if they found some clever way to design it to be an affordable retrofittable to HW 2/3 cars that HW4 is not it would resolve the concern for a relatively low cost of the retrofit.

I think the numbers are going to surprise the harshest critics. (but not bulls) Slightly better than expected overall, following months of "EV sales are down" FUD (the rate of growth is down... sales are still growing)

Are you suggesting you think deliveries will be up YoY compared to Q2 2023? That was 466,140 deliveries and a beat of that would be a MUCH larger # than I've seen anyone suggest will be announced..

Both street consensus and Troys # are tens of thousands of cars lower- and both would show EV sales are down (at least for Tesla even if not for everyone) YoY.

 

[Musskiah]

Ok- but first the post I was replying to speculated actual RT would require HW5... and second it doesn't matter if the MSRP changed, if Tesla "owes" <HW5 buyers robotaxis but can't deliver it on older HW they're on the hook for whatever makes those folks whole. Again this will be dwarfed by the revenue from HAVING generalized RTs, but it's still non-zero and will hit the bottom line at some point.

Why would Tesla owe owners anything? I was never sold a robotaxi. I was sold a Tesla that might become feature complete.

 

[Knightshade]

Why would Tesla owe owners anything? I was never sold a robotaxi.

I was.

Literally everyone who bought FSD prior to roughly March 2019 was explicitly promised at minimum L4 operation (arguably L5 but I think they could legally get away with 4 that has a wide ODD satisfying the promise)

That's ignoring the numerous times Elon said, during public presentations to investors, that existing cars- including those beyond the 3/19 cut-off, would be able to become robotaxis and earn their owners income (which are more nebulous, legally, than the promises made to FSD buyers before 3/19 that were in writing and part of the actual purchase process)

 

[Musskiah]

I was.

Literally everyone who bought FSD prior to roughly March 2019 was explicitly promised at minimum L4 operation (arguably L5 but I think they could legally get away with 4 that has a wide ODD satisfying the promise)

That's ignoring the numerous times Elon said, during public presentations to investors, that existing cars- including those beyond the 3/19 cut-off, would be able to become robotaxis and earn their owners income (which are more nebulous, legally, than the promises made to FSD buyers before 3/19 that were in writing and part of the actual purchase process)

Better start a class action suit then. Put your money where your feelings are...Or you could just realize that a new HW 4 Tesla is cheaper than ever, and go buy one! Zero hassle, zero drama, concerns addressed. However, you couldn't remain eternally pessimistic, which could present an issue.