Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cloxxki]

other things too, for instance having seen more than my fair share of roadside weaves, how is the software at differentiating between 'just a weave flying by' and not an accidentally-tossed-into-traffic new-born baby?
gotta get out there and get all that juicy data mmm mmm good

I'm sceptical the camera resolution and frame rate will suffice to tell the difference between a drunk bike rider about to weave and one that will keep course. Or a rear rack passenger about to hop off. A weave from someone just getting going along the sidewalk. Also with young children, I can tell from their finer posture nuances whether they're about to leap right in front of my bike. I see what their eyes are focused on, interaction with people, animals and objects. Give me 100 such situation and I will beat 2025 FSD at it. What could help FSD is the response time but they'd likely be too late already.
I warn people about to step in front of my bike (voice, bell) all the time. In a car I'd have been slowing down before the point I'd like to alert the pedestrian. How can FSD ever be 10x better than me at seeing such accidents coming? An infant under a wheels is just game over.

 

[Big Earl]

+4 shares just now. I watched the FSD presentation last night and I was impressed.

 

[bdy0627]

Because Tesla isn’t(well, wasn’t) making them. They were focused on spooling up for the recent refresh and will continue to spin that up until they get back to full production capacity near end of this quarter.

I never understood why it surprised anyone that sales would drop when they completely stopped selling the Standard Range(after having stopped selling the 75). You aren’t going to sell as many of something when you dramatically raise the price.

Well, it evidently surprised the heck out of Tesla since they were expecting deliveries of S/X in Q1 to be slightly less than Q1 2018, which was 21,800. They were off by a mile on that expectation.

From Q4 2018 ER outlook:

"Because of the first scheduled reduction of the federal EV tax credit on January 1, 2019, we likely saw a pull-forward of demand in the US for Model S and Model X into 2018. Both Model S and Model X reached all-time high market shares in the US in the second half of 2018. Model S, for example, accounted for 38% of its segment in the US. Because this high level of demand presumably represented a pull-forward, we are expecting our Model S and Model X deliveries in Q1 2019 to be slightly below Q1 2018."

 

[Big Earl]

I'm sceptical the camera resolution and frame rate will suffice to tell the difference between a drunk bike rider about to weave and one that will keep course. Or a rear rack passenger about to hop off. A weave from someone just getting going along the sidewalk. Also with young children, I can tell from their finer posture nuances whether they're about to leap right in front of my bike. I see what their eyes are focused on, interaction with people, animals and objects. Give me 100 such situation and I will beat 2025 FSD at it. What could help FSD is the response time but they'd likely be too late already.
I warn people about to step in front of my bike (voice, bell) all the time. In a car I'd have been slowing down before the point I'd like to alert the pedestrian. How can FSD ever be 10x better than me at seeing such accidents coming? An infant under a wheels is just game over.

*yawn*

 

[Jayjs20]

Gonna stop looking at my portfolio for awhile, for my health and well being.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Rights issue, you mean? Please do feel free to communicate it to Musk & Tesla.

Done via tweet.

Marcus Maximus on Twitter

 

[Singuy]

The whole bear case ultimately rests on a single assumption: That there is no significant demand for electric cars.
That's what it boils down to, really. Any past demand can be explained by "that's all the demand there is, and now it has been filled". Any future demand doesn't exist, because nobody wants electric cars.

The reason why every single possible competitor is a "Tesla killer" is because there is only a world market for 20.000 EVs so someone like Audi, already having 20.000 reservations, has gobbled up all there is to sell. QED.

If you believe that nobody wants EVs in general, and the Model 3 in particular, then bankwupcy is the only logical conclusion. We have plenty of people in online forums who believe that the e-tron has a higher range, more performance and more units sold than the Model S and X combined (point in case: Current comment section on Electrek, current comment section on heise.de) so of course you'd be stupid to even consider buying a Tesla, regardless of Model.

On one hand, the desirability of the Model 3 is something that is hard to measure, and a lot of people simply haven't cottoned on to what the Model 3 is, what it can do, and how fun it is to drive. They heard horror stories or hype stories, and even worse, some people think it's a concept car that is not being sold yet (true story!)

I think you have to be ignorant to believe there's no demand for the Model 3. You have to have no clue, no experience, and a considerable bias against Tesla or electric mobility. The question is whether the potential demand can be realized, or if the detractors are successful in inhibiting adoption - or rather, how successful they are in slowing things down. Everything else is just noise - including tens of thousands of cars slipping from one quarter to another. The real question is: Will potential customers find out the facts about the Model 3 over the next few months? Or will they be detracted by the actions of detractors or even Tesla's own actions.

See the fundamental problem with this bear case is just one big ass double standard. If analysis thinks there are only a small "finite" demand for electric cars, then why are theyd dinging any companies right now not spending billions on electric car investment? These analysis should be trashing legacy car companies for "wasting" billions on what essentially is a super small market..so small that even if Tesla has zero competition, they will naturally run out of customers and go bankrupt.

So you can't have it both ways. On one hand you think there are no EV demand and it's not the future, and on the other hand you think any car companies not investing in electric currently will fall behind.

 

[jerry33]

I warn people about to step in front of my bike (voice, bell) all the time. In a car I'd have been slowing down before the point I'd like to alert the pedestrian. How can FSD ever be 10x better than me at seeing such accidents coming? An infant under a wheels is just game over.

1. It's always focused. Even the best race car drivers--where keeping focused is key--aren't focused 100% of the time.
2. It can track minute movements much better, so it has a really good idea of when there's a problem and when there's not. They even demonstrated that with cars in other lanes.

 

[jerry33]

Well, it evidently surprised the heck out of Tesla since they were expecting deliveries of S/X in Q1 to be slightly less than Q1 2018, which was 21,800. They were off by a mile on that expectation.

Either someone didn't do their homework at all, because it should be easy to see that if you stop selling your highest volume configuration you'll lose a bunch of sales, or they expected Panasonic to deliver batteries so that the M3 sales would make up for any loss. Neither happened, so the results are as stated.

 

[dc_h]

Either someone didn't do their homework at all, because it should be easy to see that if you stop selling your highest volume configuration you'll lose a bunch of sales, or they expected Panasonic to deliver batteries so that the M3 sales would make up for any loss. Neither happened, so the results are as stated.

Or they expected to get the updated motors out sooner. If the 370 mile S 325 mile X is released in January or February, they probably sell at least 5000 more.

 

[WarpedOne]

I say pana effed up...
I say buy them out already.

 

[Cloxxki]

1. It's always focused. Even the best race car drivers--where keeping focused is key--aren't focused 100% of the time.
2. It can track minute movements much better, so it has a really good idea of when there's a problem and when there's not. They even demonstrated that with cars in other lanes.

All nice and good, but there's the issue of the stationary fire trucks, while fully focused all the time.
I am talking about soft target, pedestrians and cyclists. How are Tesla going to sort interaction with those?

Perhaps Level 5 will be homologated, but only for a cherry picked set of streets within an area, making RoboTaxi more of a city bus than a personal car. Then there are unexpected road closures. I sometimes get to consult a road worker or street sweeper. Oh well, people here are planning their robotaxi drives for Christmas already

 

[DocZ]

Well....bought 20 more shares today. My last few buys have been ill timed as I've been buying since 306 and lower.

 

[DurandalAI]

Since it has not broken this pattern, it'll probably spend the rest of the month in the 240s & 250s....

I've been selling short term (2-3 week) calls with strike prices at my most recent cost basis. Despite autonomy day, I think WS won't grasp the full gravity of what Tesla is up to (and believe they can do it) until later this year. I agree with you.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Well, it evidently surprised the heck out of Tesla since they were expecting deliveries of S/X in Q1 to be slightly less than Q1 2018, which was 21,800. They were off by a mile on that expectation.

From Q4 2018 ER outlook:

"Because of the first scheduled reduction of the federal EV tax credit on January 1, 2019, we likely saw a pull-forward of demand in the US for Model S and Model X into 2018. Both Model S and Model X reached all-time high market shares in the US in the second half of 2018. Model S, for example, accounted for 38% of its segment in the US. Because this high level of demand presumably represented a pull-forward, we are expecting our Model S and Model X deliveries in Q1 2019 to be slightly below Q1 2018."

I think it did surprise them, just not in the way you do: They thought they would have an easier time spinning up the refresh, so they could bring back the standard range for most of the quarter(or never have a gap without it). Instead, they seem to have only just this last week gotten the line up and running and it won’t be to full capacity until June.

Now, by the time they stopped producing the standard range S/X, I’m pretty sure they knew production and sales would be low.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Yeah, I'm actually contemplating digging into some reserves to buy more. Not a good idea (substantially increased risk in the event of unexpected adverse personal financial events), but dang this is a bargain...

Same here. I think the shorts’ strategy is to try to run us out of dry powder. The flaw in their strategy is that a paycheck can produce new dry powder. This is tough concept for the shorts like skabooshka who are “students” living with their parents.

 

[jerry33]

I am talking about soft target, pedestrians and cyclists. How are Tesla going to sort interaction with those?

That is what I was referring to. FSD can pick out minute movements and extrapolate what they will do. This is what they demonstrated.

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[Cloxxki]

I say pana effed up...
I say buy them out already.

Or Tesla asked the impossible. The truth may be in the middle.
When Honda was disappointing McLaren, it seemed very one-sided forcasual onlookers. After the fact the real situation became more clear.
I don't understand, if they made margins in the past, why they didn't order over-capacity in cell lines. They are SO short on cells, it's not funny. And any $1 cell you don't have a car or wall to put it in, you can easily sell into the market. Lots of small car startups that love 2170's. Rivian for instance. They'll only get 17.3 Wh from each according to my beer coaster math.

 

[Cloxxki]

That is what I was referring to. FSD can pick out minute movements and extrapolate what they will do. This is what they demonstrated.

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Then I missed that.

 

[Freder Reeve]

All nice and good ... people here are planning their ... Christmas already

matter of fact I was just sitting here thinking about the 10 shares i added today as an xmas present to myself