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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Pras

Member
Jun 23, 2016
783
5,361
New Jersey

Dan Detweiler

Active Member
Apr 21, 2016
3,005
12,474
Canton, Georgia
Just wanted to inform everyone that my TMC profile now sports a referral code, due to this Model 3 order placed today:
LR AWD, in blue w. FSD.
I placed the order in the Munich Tesla store, where I was promised that Tesla will at a later stage offer to upgrade my car with a tow bar.
Delivery was promised to be in June.

Coincidentally, my local news paper writes today that on June 30 the local VW dealer will close due to poor sales and poor resale value of leased cars. In the neighboring town the Audi dealer closed last year.
That is my car exactly! You're going to love it!

Dan
 
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Zhelko Dimic

Careful bull
Jan 17, 2016
1,541
7,062
Toronto, Canada
So any old timer still in TSLA? How many did we lose on this round?
I've tapped my HLOC line for leverage couple of times in the past with good success, though it was hairy couple times.
I'm not tempted at all this time around.
I've actually sold few percents in the low 250s. Immaterial, just makes me feel better.

And that small tranche I did to sell 350 TSLA for 76 AMZN, and I was tempted to reconvert, and you commented was smart to leave it be? Great call, thanks; nowadays if I were to do the same, I could have bought only 42 AMZN shares instead of 76...
My 9% of non-TSLA (AMZN, FB, TCX, DIS) turned into 15% at the Friday's closing prices.
 

Zero CO2

a long term goal
Apr 24, 2017
768
3,151
NYC -Staten Island
Let's assume for the sake of discussion that Waymo and Cruise are approved first for some form of self driving (probably in a few cities). Optimistically let's assume they have a few tens of thousands of robotaxis on the road.

Then let's assume that six months later, the "laggard" Tesla flips a switch and has 500,000-1,000,000 Model 3s on the road that can be used as robotaxis on the Tesla Network, and is producing another 500,000-1,000,000 FSD enabled cars per year (mostly 3/Y). Those robotaxis last 1 million miles, and cost $50,000+ less per car to manufacture than the Waymo/Cruise-mobiles with expensive computers and LIDAR.

Who wins then?
This is a topic i would really like to understand better ... Telsa has been collecting machine learning data since = 2015?(i don't know)
They are growing their fleet at X % per year, hence learning from larger population on real cars driven by all types of drivers all around the globe... All integrated with Tesla HW seems to me they have the big data to blow these other guys away in a couple years(Waymo, Uber, Lyft, and whatever other overvalued competitors there are) ...In addition they are building an ASIC specifically design for FSD ....please tell what i am missing ... the advantage seems huge

I don't know who the real competition is here ... think Apple /Google in smart phones ... the incumbents were destroyed ... i think legacy automakers will share the same fate as Nokia, Motorola, Blackberry ... who will be the Google equivalent in this race ... it might be Google or Apple....
 
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TheMrX

Member
Jan 25, 2017
191
894
canada
Thanks.

There really was not much more information regarding the tow bar (Anhängerkupplung), except that I pressed for and got confirmation that the modification would go in the vehicle's registration papers (KFZ-Schein). The Tesla person reasonable assumed that a cutout would have to be made in the rear fender, but could not say if it would be made from behind or from below (like it was on my Audi), so he clearly had not seen specs on the tow bar. He did say it would be an easy modification to do.
Wait what? Is this going to be an official Tesla tow bar?
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,266
101,030
Canada
Should I be diverting more cells to storage or was LR a greater % of vehicles produced?
In Q1 there were only 500 SR+ produced, those all after Feb 28. It's also not cear that ANY GF1 cell lines are dedicated to TE. Reports are conflicting. Elon said all GF1 lines were changed over to auto cell production, and that they are scrounging cells from other manufacturers for TE products. Carsonight has variously said 1 or 2 lines dedicated to TE, but we know at least some of his information is stale. Finally, the 24GWh/yr run rate was for Q1, but recent info indicates bottlenecks have been solved. So overall, not at all clear what current production is. Reality is, Tesla needs to keep production close to its vest because ALL information is spun for the worse regardless of its content.
 
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EVMeister

Lover of Tesla
Apr 8, 2018
1,549
10,427
England
Something to think about:
At hacking competition, team exposes Tesla bug - Reuters TV
The most important info I took away was that they were not able to hack into Tesla's self driving system (yet).

Did you watch the autonomy day presentation? The FSD system has various safeguards in place to prevent hacking. From what I remember, this included that instructions are only executed if they're signed and encrypted by Tesla. And that both of the "brains" (or both chips) agree to carry out a process. Nobody should ever call anything unhackable, of course. And I'm sure some very capable hackers will be trying to crack that nut when it's time. Hopefully in a Tesla-approved and rewarded way of course.
 
Mar 30, 2010
461
2,576
Just wanted to inform everyone that my TMC profile now sports a referral code, due to this Model 3 order placed today:
LR AWD, in blue w. FSD.
I placed the order in the Munich Tesla store, where I was promised that Tesla will at a later stage offer to upgrade my car with a tow bar.
Delivery was promised to be in June.

Coincidentally, my local news paper writes today that on June 30 the local VW dealer will close due to poor sales and poor resale value of leased cars. In the neighboring town the Audi dealer closed last year.

Plan to place my order next month and now I have a referal code to use. Thanks! But one thing, if you win a roadster, you owe me a beer or two in a Munich Biergarten.

And great news about the tow hitch! Again, one great missed oportunity for Tesla on the demand site. Why not communicate this option openly so people know they can retrofit a tow hitch? SMH.
 
Mar 30, 2010
461
2,576
He should reply, but I will clarify.
He referred to his town, which appears to be very near Munich because he bought his Tesla there. Munich may be a bit BMW-centric, but there are copious VW and Audi there and the larger dealers are surviving. All across Germany smaller dealers located very near larger ones are having a very hard time. For that matter even BMW and Mercedes Benz dealers who've depended on suburban higher-end models to make up for lower margin cheaper ones are also suffering. Some of the shift is a consequence of corporate purchases, that tend to concentrate disproportionately to larger dealers.

While I have some knowledge of this because of professional connections with German auto distribution I am by no means an expert. Thus, I welcome correction if necessary.

By their own admission both BMW and Daimler-Benz are very concerned about the encroaching Tesla threat. Only VAG has gone so far as to propose regulatory changes to hamper Tesla growth in Germany. Fairly clearly, there is some nervousness about PSA because their effectiveness in rehabilitating Opel seems to be emerging as a low priced competitor. Domestically in Germany there are some headwinds politically with VW due to success of Skoda and Seat at the expense of German-produced VW.

These are very interesting times for Germany. Further pressure comes because Italy, Switzerland and France are all playing with the Silk Road Initiative, while German auto industry and tech industry is suffering with China sales.

All these things are probably net positives for TSLA, but seriously professional FUD is surely coming with that success.

People who know more than I should weigh in, because germany is crucial for Tesla growth. Is locating GF-4 in Germany a good idea? Personally I think they'd be wise to produce in Germany with major components sourced from other EU countries (e.g. Chechia, Slovakia, Poland, Spain)

Confirmed.
 

Causalien

Prime 8 ball Oracle
Nov 19, 2012
3,738
13,521
Pothead's Republic of Canukstan (PRC)
I've tapped my HLOC line for leverage couple of times in the past with good success, though it was hairy couple times.
I'm not tempted at all this time around.
I've actually sold few percents in the low 250s. Immaterial, just makes me feel better.

And that small tranche I did to sell 350 TSLA for 76 AMZN, and I was tempted to reconvert, and you commented was smart to leave it be? Great call, thanks; nowadays if I were to do the same, I could have bought only 42 AMZN shares instead of 76...
My 9% of non-TSLA (AMZN, FB, TCX, DIS) turned into 15% at the Friday's closing prices.

What can I say. I am the oracle who is 100% right 50% of the time.
 

anthonyj

Stonks
May 16, 2018
2,357
18,223
Naples, FL
Market isn't pricing in any future products. Tesla simply doesn't have the capital to produce Semi, Y, Pickup, Roadster with comfort. And that's okay. A capital raise will allow those future products to be priced into the SP, until then, more pain.
 

EVMeister

Lover of Tesla
Apr 8, 2018
1,549
10,427
England
Market isn't pricing in any future products. Tesla simply doesn't have the capital to produce Semi, Y, Pickup, Roadster with comfort. And that's okay. A capital raise will allow those future products to be priced into the SP, until then, more pain.

I agree that Tesla will raise capital at some point in the not too distant future. I'm not sure how or when, but I think it would help with the market's assessment of the company. Do you see them doing this in the near future, or later in the year?
 
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JohnDinger

Member
Apr 26, 2019
58
93
Las Vegas, NV
Market isn't pricing in any future products. Tesla simply doesn't have the capital to produce Semi, Y, Pickup, Roadster with comfort. And that's okay. A capital raise will allow those future products to be priced into the SP, until then, more pain.

Musk has been promising a profitable Model 3 for years.

As recent as January this year, he said that Tesla would be profitable and cash flow positive every quarter going forward... And yet Q1 was a disaster, and Tesla is forecasting a loss for Q2 despite record deliveries.

I don't think the market is going to put any financial consideration behind future products until they see the Model 3 profits that were promised.
 

anthonyj

Stonks
May 16, 2018
2,357
18,223
Naples, FL
I agree that Tesla will raise capital at some point in the not too distant future. I'm not sure how or when, but I think it would help with the market's assessment of the company. Do you see them doing this in the near future, or later in the year?
This is me just guessing, but very soon. I track ARK Invest's TSLA purchases and I've never seen them make such large bulk buys of TSLA like they have this week. I am pretty sure they are close to their limit of how much TSLA they can buy, so they seem confident that it is bottoming out. Cathie and her team met with Elon in February and last Monday, and I think they know something that we don't.
 

anthonyj

Stonks
May 16, 2018
2,357
18,223
Naples, FL
Musk has been promising a profitable Model 3 for years.

As recent as January this year, he said that Tesla would be profitable and cash flow positive every quarter going forward... And yet Q1 was a disaster, and Tesla is forecasting a loss for Q2 despite record deliveries.

I don't think the market is going to put any financial consideration behind future products until they see the Model 3 profits that were promised.
The concern with TSLA right now is Tesla's cash on hand. It is reaching critical levels which is why we saw so many panicky moves by Tesla in Q1. With enough cash, Tesla doesn't need to turn huge profits, they just need to continue to gain market share and maintain a healthy cash balance. That is what a growth company is all about. And yes, Elon needs to stop over promising. This quarter was a disaster.
 

JohnDinger

Member
Apr 26, 2019
58
93
Las Vegas, NV
The concern with TSLA right now is Tesla's cash on hand. It is reaching critical levels which is why we saw so many panicky moves by Tesla in Q1. With enough cash, Tesla doesn't need to turn huge profits, they just need to continue to gain market share and maintain a healthy cash balance. That is what a growth company is all about. And yes, Elon needs to stop over promising. This quarter was a disaster.

I agree. I'm saying that it's hard to factor in future products to a capital raise when their current products aren't turning a profit.

I think they will raise capital, but it'll be by pitching a turnaround plan, not the Semi/Roadster/Model Y etc.
 

anthonyj

Stonks
May 16, 2018
2,357
18,223
Naples, FL
I agree. I'm saying that it's hard to factor in future products to a capital raise when their current products aren't turning a profit.

I think they will raise capital, but it'll be by pitching a turnaround plan, not the Semi/Roadster/Model Y etc.
Elon can sell a turd and raise $10m capital. He is an amazing salesman. Tesla hasn't been profitable in 15 years, yet they've raised capital successfully. Netflix has been burning cash at a crazy rate, yet they can raise capital. Don't even get me started on Uber and Lyft. Point is, growth company = ez money. If Tesla misses big on production/deliveries in Q2, big problems
 

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