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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

defc0n

Active Member
Sep 30, 2016
1,318
3,913
Indiana
It seems like a lot of the SP drop the last few months was due to T. Rowe Price selling most of their TSLA shares. Now that it is so low, I wonder if they will get back in to cause a short squeeze and make more money?

Doubtful, they sold damn near all shares last I saw.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
9,254
27,766
Seattle, WA
No, it doesn’t let him use it as normal. The world would know that every tweet we saw had been screened. It’s humiliating for Musk. He’s a grown up and does not need a babysitter. It’s the SEC who are being childish with the hyper-vigilance. Put a babysitter on their knee jerk legal actions.
Well, lets agree to disagree on this.
 

Doggydogworld

Active Member
Mar 4, 2019
1,508
5,781
Texas
Waymos and Cruises have been showing the demo for a few years now. Yet, they have not unveiled a robotaxi.
What's your term for those funny looking Pacificas roaming around Phoenix, sometimes with nobody in the driver's seat?

So, now that Tesla demoed the FSD to investors now, they think it will be years before Tesla can release robotaxis.
How dare people question Elon's timeline!

Waymo & Cruise have to essentially wait till step 3 above to make any money - and they have confidence they have solved FSD (atleast for that geofenced area).
This is the key point - Tesla's superior business model. In terms of actual on-road performance Tesla is 9 years behind Waymo, but tech history teaches us that being first to develop a new capability doesn't matter. The better business model almost always wins.
 

Joe F

Disruption is hard.
Sep 19, 2016
1,920
8,297
Outside Philly
Only point I'm trying to make is, be careful when you brag and boast about someone else's loss - you never know when it will come back on you.

I'm not chastising you, only pointing out that I did the same thing to you that you did to whoever sold their shares to you.

But, let's let it go and hope for a rebound next week. We're both long and we both want the same thing - for Tesla to be immensely successful and the stock to go up and up and up! Nuff said.

My apologies to all. This is going on too long and will be taken to PM if needed...

You know, Buddy, I don’t brag or boast. Perhaps you should make an attempt at understanding humor when you see it. While at first I didn’t feel as though you were being rude, as had been stated by someone else earlier, but based on your continuing comments since, you’re trying real hard to change my opinion.

Be careful believing you “did the same thing” to someone, as if you’re the self appointed defender of the downtrodden. You’re not.

Willing to let it go as well. If not, let’s not bore the good folks here further and move it to PM. Peace.
 

anthonyj

Stonks
May 16, 2018
2,357
18,223
Naples, FL
It seems like a lot of the SP drop the last few months was due to T. Rowe Price selling most of their TSLA shares. Now that it is so low, I wonder if they will get back in to cause a short squeeze and make more money?
Oh, the downtrend wasn’t caused by T Rowe Price alone. We will soon see who else has been dumping in Q1. Short Interest went up a good amount too.

On Twitter, I’m starting to see a lot of longs capitulate and sell portions of their position. I think we will see bottom next week. $180 is my target for adding more though. I have enough shares
 

M3Rider

Supporting Member
Oct 3, 2018
1,463
7,422
CO
Same story here, I could not convince my in-laws to buy a tesla, they are pretty rich and could afford 10 model Xs, but thanks to FUDs madness (accidents, fire, etc news), extremely anti-tesla and instead bought mercedes, bmw, and worst of all, a ford hybrid! It’s a pretty sad media FUD age we’re in.
This is somewhat worrying...The FUD has been ruthless. Wondering if we end up having 1/2 demand in U.S. as compared to China or Europe because of this. Would really be awkward if Tesla beats sales records overseas and cannot sell enough at home. "Innovative company fighting the global warming faces extreme opposition at home" - that would be a nice ad for U.S. of A as a whole. /s
Tesla would then really need to pick up the pace on FSD. If they can use the cars for robotaxis instead of selling to people scared by FUD, this could resolve the (potential) U.S. demand issues in spite of FUDsters.
 
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generalenthu

Supporting Member
Jun 10, 2015
1,103
8,539
Vienna, VA
It seems like a lot of the SP drop the last few months was due to T. Rowe Price selling most of their TSLA shares. Now that it is so low, I wonder if they will get back in to cause a short squeeze and make more money?
Nope, very unlikely. Someone, probably @neroden mentioned that they had a new portfolio manager who was taking over the funds that held Tesla, and he is didnt care much for the position.
 

sundaymorning

Active Member
Jul 26, 2013
3,464
18,270
Orange County
Here’s a pic of the iPace interior, it literally has 5 inches of legroom in the back. Looks like the legroom is even squishier than the 2 child seat in the Model X 7 seater. The interior looks terrible. I honestly hated everything about the iPace’s interior, the exterior is average, does nothing for me.
 

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Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,266
101,030
Canada
The decision on where to build the Model Y may be made in a couple weeks. We are well aware of the labor situation affecting Panasonic right now, but there are other factors which may influence the site selection. So here's some insight into how water rights/availability in the GF1/Reno area may affect that decsion, written by a long-time Carson City, NV resident and GF1 "outsider" 'carsonight':

carsonight * 2 days ago

"I'm not trying to win an argument or put you down. I'm simply explaining how things work out here in the driest state in the nation.

"The industrial park has a certain quantity of water rights. Understand that water rights are bought and sold in acre feet. One acre foot is enough water to cover one acre to the depth of one foot, and is considered sufficient water for two residential dwellings or four apartments. The current price of an acre foot of water rights is something between $50k and $100k. This assumes that somebody has them and is willing to sell them. Before somebody can get a building permit they have to present proof that they have the water rights, even in town.

"The difference is that once that building permit is given the town takes responsibility for providing water, whereas those outside the city limits are subject to junior status as a holder of water rights. This means if there is a severe drought and the water table drops too far, they will be the first to not be allowed to pump water out of a well anymore. The industrial park has senior water rights, but if the drought is severe enough they too could lose their right to pump water.

"Both Reno and Sparks have acquired water rights by acquiring ranches peripheral to the city limits. The water rights came with those. There is very little in the way of additional farms or ranches to acquire. Reno tried to acquire water rights in the Honey Lake Valley in California, 60 miles north, but California put the kibosh on that. Las Vegas is trying to acquire water rights from northeastern Nevada, 400 miles away, something that is bitterly opposed there.

"You mentioned collecting water off of roofs. Understand that between April and September or October there is very little rain. Most precipitation falls in the winter and the snowpack in the mountains is very critical, because that determines if there will be water enough in the summer. Lake Tahoe has a dam that holds water to a certain elevation above its natural rim, which is determined by federal law. Reno has storage enough through Lake Tahoe and reservoirs for 3 years of no snowpack. I've seen droughts that lasted that long.

"Sparks would be the one to decide if they want to acquire property 10 miles east of the city limits to build residences there. That would mean that Sparks would have to extend full city services that far, and would not gain any water rights by so doing. Honestly I do not see that happening.

"Water rights here are critically important and most people in the know are conversant on them. I remember a few summers ago when the owner of a ranch in Carson City tried to sell 30 acre feet of water rights to Douglas County, the next county to the South. There was a storm of controversy! You would have thought Benedict Arnold had risen from the dead and walked again! The sale was rescinded."​

Cheers!
 

Remus

Active Member
Apr 14, 2016
1,381
6,326
California
What's your term for those funny looking Pacificas roaming around Phoenix, sometimes with nobody in the driver's seat?


How dare people question Elon's timeline!


This is the key point - Tesla's superior business model. In terms of actual on-road performance Tesla is 9 years behind Waymo, but tech history teaches us that being first to develop a new capability doesn't matter. The better business model almost always wins.
About that 9 years lead. You say that like it means something.

Windows CE was released in 1996. Symbian 1998, and iOS was as late as was 2007

Before you laugh, I need to remind you at that time windows was still the King. And symbian was used in Nokia phones.

The important thing is whether the front runner is maintaining the lead. Do we have enough evidence that they are? Do we have infor on how quickly they can deploy to another city, constructing high res map? Retrain the over fitted model?
 

TradingInvest

Active Member
Mar 8, 2017
1,694
13,611
USA
The insurance thing is a bigger thing than I had originally thought. Previously I thought that Tesla will partner with an established insurer like State Farm to offer Tesla specific rates and take the risk for it. However, it seems Tesla is now using a Fronting company (I think it is State National insurance) which allows Tesla to basically offer insurance more directly and pocket all profit net of the service fee offered to the fronting company. Interesting to see how they build the pricing model. (disclaimer: just speculating here)

Could be a small but a growing revenue. Let’s see.

Did you see any indication that Tesla is basically offering insurance more directly? or just a guess? If this is true, that's great. I would switch.
 
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Buckminster

Active Member
Aug 29, 2018
2,918
14,498
UK
Truth serum time:

Leaving everything else aside, wouldn't you have felt better if a Twitter sitter had a chance to edit out the "True, we may not succeed" comment in his tweet on 4/20?

That's one of the things the amendment to the Consent Judgment may help accomplish.
Answer is for Grimes to step up - Board member (comms) - night shift!
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger

Causalien

Prime 8 ball Oracle
Nov 19, 2012
3,738
13,521
Pothead's Republic of Canukstan (PRC)
The decision on where to build the Model Y may be made in a couple weeks. We are well aware of the labor situation affecting Panasonic right now, but there are other factors which may influence the site selection. So here's some insight into how water rights/availability in the GF1/Reno area may affect that decsion, written by a long-time Carson City, NV resident and GF1 "outsider" 'carsonight':

carsonight * 2 days ago

"I'm not trying to win an argument or put you down. I'm simply explaining how things work out here in the driest state in the nation.

"The industrial park has a certain quantity of water rights. Understand that water rights are bought and sold in acre feet. One acre foot is enough water to cover one acre to the depth of one foot, and is considered sufficient water for two residential dwellings or four apartments. The current price of an acre foot of water rights is something between $50k and $100k. This assumes that somebody has them and is willing to sell them. Before somebody can get a building permit they have to present proof that they have the water rights, even in town.

"The difference is that once that building permit is given the town takes responsibility for providing water, whereas those outside the city limits are subject to junior status as a holder of water rights. This means if there is a severe drought and the water table drops too far, they will be the first to not be allowed to pump water out of a well anymore. The industrial park has senior water rights, but if the drought is severe enough they too could lose their right to pump water.

"Both Reno and Sparks have acquired water rights by acquiring ranches peripheral to the city limits. The water rights came with those. There is very little in the way of additional farms or ranches to acquire. Reno tried to acquire water rights in the Honey Lake Valley in California, 60 miles north, but California put the kibosh on that. Las Vegas is trying to acquire water rights from northeastern Nevada, 400 miles away, something that is bitterly opposed there.

"You mentioned collecting water off of roofs. Understand that between April and September or October there is very little rain. Most precipitation falls in the winter and the snowpack in the mountains is very critical, because that determines if there will be water enough in the summer. Lake Tahoe has a dam that holds water to a certain elevation above its natural rim, which is determined by federal law. Reno has storage enough through Lake Tahoe and reservoirs for 3 years of no snowpack. I've seen droughts that lasted that long.

"Sparks would be the one to decide if they want to acquire property 10 miles east of the city limits to build residences there. That would mean that Sparks would have to extend full city services that far, and would not gain any water rights by so doing. Honestly I do not see that happening.

"Water rights here are critically important and most people in the know are conversant on them. I remember a few summers ago when the owner of a ranch in Carson City tried to sell 30 acre feet of water rights to Douglas County, the next county to the South. There was a storm of controversy! You would have thought Benedict Arnold had risen from the dead and walked again! The sale was rescinded."​

Cheers!

So... Why haven't you guys hooked up a water pipeline to Canada yet?
 

FS_FRA

Member
Sep 4, 2018
354
2,383
Frankfurt, Germany
I think the best place for GF4 would probably be Czechia, Slovakia, or Poland. Lower labor costs, and short proximity to a large component supply base.

Except that accessing the biggest and arguably most important market in the EU as a foreign (US....) marque, and EV at that - will greatly improve consumers acceptance if the factory is located there.

Think: to the general consumer a great EV by the Apple of EVs actually built in Germany to perceived German quality standards and by German workers will enjoy significantly better acceptance than the same great EV by the Apple of EVs built in the neighbouring low-cost production economies. There is a reason (in addition to the political one) that the Big 3 (BMW, Daimler, VW Group) still build the majority of their cars in Germany, instead of running for the low-cost countries.
Of course don’t look too closely to their supply base.....that has long spread all over the world.

Maybe from your US perspective: do you think Tesla would have done equally well if Fremont (or GF1) was located in Mexico?
 
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RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,228
52,301
City of Champions, USA
Maybe from your US perspective: do you think Tesla would have done equally well if Fremont (or GF1) was located in Mexico?

Last year Americans bought 61k Made in the USA BMW X3s.

And 70k Made in Mexico Audi Q5s.

As you go up the price scale people care more about origin of Manufacture.

Model S, Model X, and Roadster should remain in California.

Model 3 and Y are less relevant. Model 2 origin of manufacture is irrelevant.

I wouldn't buy a Model 3 Made in Moldova but it doesn't have to be one of the most expensive regions in Europe either.
 

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