Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Simon Alvarez at Teslarati has just published a new article about the censored CNBC interview with venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya:

Venture capitalist defends Tesla and Elon Musk, issues bold takedown on TSLA skeptics​

I suspect CNBC is going to take down the embedded video too - where Chamath Palihapitiya shreds the CNBC host's TSLAQ talking points with brutal efficiency, but Teslarati has also transcribed the interview, and that probably cannot be taken down.

So if you want to spread the word about the Tesla-positive interview that CNBC is trying to erase from the Internet, this is the link to share.

The video is already being shared on YouTube so they won't be able to stop it anyway. It was excellent.

 

[KSilver2000]

So that people like you are tempted to buy a new one?
I have an S90D that is 3 years old and cost more than a new P100D. If there was a way to transfer my lifetime free supercharging to a new P100D S or X, I’d order immediately. Not that I use the free supercharging that much, it’s a psychological thing.

That is why I still place high value on used Tesla’s. Where I live, peak electricity rates on an EV plan is $0.49/kWh. Night time is cheaper at almost $0.13/kWh, but sometimes you just need to charge during the day and when going on road trips. Having dozens of Superchargers at shopping malls and grocery stores make it an ideal charging source.

 

[Alphacrux]

So that people like you are tempted to buy a new one?
I have an S90D that is 3 years old and cost more than a new P100D. If there was a way to transfer my lifetime free supercharging to a new P100D S or X, I’d order immediately. Not that I use the free supercharging that much, it’s a psychological thing.

Same situation here. In my case, I did order a new P100D to replace our 2015 SP90D because we have a 2017 SP100D that also has free supercharging. After getting the 2017, we never took the P90D on long roadtrips anymore and we charge locally at home. We'll keep the 2017 for roadtrips and use the 2019 for local. I don't like losing the free supercharging, but under our usage model, we haven't really lost anything. I agree that its mostly psychological compared to the cost of the car.

 

[Unpilot]

Bought some more at 233....can't find a rational reason for this crazy low sale.

 

[NicoV]

aren't they offering free ludicrous for previous owners? Isn't that a lot more bang for your buck?

True. But I’d rather have free supercharging than ludicrous.

To be honest, the following things should happen before I upgrade to a new S or X:
- CCS compatibility
- some kind of confirmation that FSD is usable i(both practically and legally) in Europe (that alone will probably take a couple of years)
- V3 supercharging compatibility - done

The reason I’m even thinking of upgrading is the new smart air suspension, that announcement took me by surprise and it’s some I want (given the sad state of the Belgian roads, and it gets worse year after year).
Ideally, the Model Y should become available with that smart air suspension, as it’s size is much more suitable for European roads.

 

[KarenRei]

People always looking at percentage margin and thinks tsla is doing fine. The original plan was, keeps 20% margin, drops asp and INCREASE production substantially. But tsla did first two without the last one. The first two leads to lower unit dollar margin. But without substantial production improvement, the $4B/y gsa can't be covered by the current production rate and asp. So my suggestion for this cash hunger phase is to INCREASE price, at least in some regions or charge special delivery fee at certain time frame to get the required unit dollar margin.

Um... Tesla did increase the price. Twice.

And they did make SG&A cuts. They should be paying off in Q2.

 

[CyberDutchie]

So that people like you are tempted to buy a new one?
I have an S90D that is 3 years old and cost more than a new P100D. If there was a way to transfer my lifetime free supercharging to a new P100D S or X, I’d order immediately. Not that I use the free supercharging that much, it’s a psychological thing.

Yeah, I was sad to let the lifetime Supercharging go, but whomever buys the car will be happy.

And, I still get 5,000 miles Supercharging free, with the improved range, that will last me at least two years.

 

[TradingInvest]

To be honest, the defense of him and the company right now sounds like delusional fanboism.



He never says things as "I think" or "I hope" or "my guidance is..." he makes statements that sound like assured commitments, and he does not always deliver in the end at all, he moves the goalposts to score. 2018 - deifnitely no equity raise needed... 2018 this forum "no equity raise, if you disagree you're full of FUD and don't know anything". 2019 - "we think we need to do an equity raise..."



I'm glad you said that exactly like that. Because most of the people posting here desperately want Tesla and TSLA to succeed, but telling people to STFU or accusing them of parroting FUD simply because they can see this emperor is not wearing any clothes, doesn't help anyone. If anyone things the current share price (which is 20% lower than it was in August 2014) is because of Chanos, CNBC and a couple of haters, then they're completely insane.

I honestly have not seen this kind of blind loyalty to a company constantly shooting itself in the face since 3dfx sank in the earlly 2000's - or maybe even since Atari (ask your dad...)

I can write a long list of things which were considered impossible tasks, but Elon/Tesla delivered in the end.
How about you write a list which Elon said Tesla will do but in the end turns out they can't? Being late is not the same as "can't".
Then we can take a closer look who is cult/delusional.

The example you gave in the above post is in correct. At the beginning of 2018, analysts insisted Tesla needs to raise $3B during 2018, Elon said "No, we don't". They ended 2018 with plenty of cash without raising. You count this as Elon being wrong?

 

[Zero CO2]

To be honest, the defense of him and the company right now sounds like delusional fanboism.



He never says things as "I think" or "I hope" or "my guidance is..." he makes statements that sound like assured commitments, and he does not always deliver in the end at all, he moves the goalposts to score. 2018 - deifnitely no equity raise needed... 2018 this forum "no equity raise, if you disagree you're full of FUD and don't know anything". 2019 - "we think we need to do an equity raise..."



I'm glad you said that exactly like that. Because most of the people posting here desperately want Tesla and TSLA to succeed, but telling people to STFU or accusing them of parroting FUD simply because they can see this emperor is not wearing any clothes, doesn't help anyone. If anyone things the current share price (which is 20% lower than it was in August 2014) is because of Chanos, CNBC and a couple of haters, then they're completely insane.

I honestly have not seen this kind of blind loyalty to a company constantly shooting itself in the face since 3dfx sank in the earlly 2000's - or maybe even since Atari (ask your dad...)

Has your expectation of what a car should be changed forever with the model 3?
If yes Tesla wins....
If no then you are not being honest with yourself

this quarterly noise is just a buying opportunity for long TSLA investors....financial analysts do not understand what is happening here ... you cannot compare Tesla to a legacy car company its vision is to move the planet to renewable clean energy.... legacy car companies have the innovators dilemma .... not sure if any will survive in the long run

 

[FreqFlyer]

You may well be right, but I still think there's value in keeping quiet for 6 months and just executing.

For sure, delivering 90-100k cars as guided in for Q2 will go a long way to repairing the situation.

And I hasten to add that I'm not selling, I'm not in panic, I'm long on this.

I also add that I don't want Elon going anywhere, we got to where we are thanks to his vision and leadership, warts and all.[/QUOTE]

Ding ding ding, we have a winner. To be honest that simple statement is what Wallstreet is looking for. Shut up and execute, and the FUD will not matter.

 

[defc0n]

I've now made a wager that this is a bottom. Set a sell limit a bit under $230 just in case it appears to me that I'm wrong.

 

[Toumal]

I honestly have not seen this kind of blind loyalty to a company constantly shooting itself in the face since 3dfx sank in the earlly 2000's - or maybe even since Atari (ask your dad...)

Ok I'll bite.

1) 3dfx simply was dead the moment true 3d geometry acceleration became available. I remember the day I bought my first GeForce 256 and switched our engine to OpenGL to take advantage of Hardware T&L. It was day and night. 3dfx continued with completely unneccessary products that were the equivalent of a flip-phone in the smartphone era, i.e. the Voodoo 4. By the time the Voodoo 5 was able to somewhat compete with the GeForce 256, the GeForce 2 GTS was already on the market and wiped the floor with that 2D card. Because that's what the 3dfx cards really were: 2D accelerators. They had no notion of 3D, you had to do every step (Rotate, Translate, Project) yourself on the CPU.

2) I'm driving the Model 3. A car that everyone said would never exist, and certainly not in Europe. Is it perfect? No. But I have to nitpick to find faults. It's a joy to drive, it's insanely performant, it has amazing range, amazing charge rate, the infotainment is second to none. Tell me again how Tesla doesn't deliver. Or how there's "no demand". Mistakes? Absolutely. On time? Not really, no. But my point stands.

The reason is that trillions of dollars are slipping from certain people's grasp if Tesla succeeds, and you'd be naive to think that they won't put up a fight, using any means neccessary. The reason is not that Tesla is shooting itself in the foot like 3dfx. 3dfx had no product that could compete anymore and their technology was a complete dead end.

Just like the other car manufacturers.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

On the one hand you seem to be claiming to be a rational person who does not like hyperbolic statements yet make these sort of claims.
It does not help your credibility.

3dfx and Atari were two companies who, in my opinion at least, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory due to poor corporate governance and some catastrophic strategy decisions. If Tesla fails (and I am not suggesting they will) it will be because of the same reason. It won't be because of Chanos, CNBC, Twitter or anyone else. It will be a simple misalignment between strategy and reality.

I'll roll it back and say, OK this emperor is wearing clothes, but bonds in the clothes are trading at 85 cents on the dollar with an 8% yield... maybe time to change clothes?

And for the record were does EM say "we think we need to do an equity raise"?

He didn't, but Tesla stated in their quarterly report that they may look to raise debt to fund growth.

I am unfortunately prone to hyperbole when responding to hyperbole. I need to meditate much more...

 

[dww12]

Is there any guess at to when Advanced Summon is going to drop? Not only do I really want it, but Tesla needs that party trick to show that FSD is real. NOA is only real for people already in the pool. AS is for non-believers. No other car will be able to do that for years, if not 10 years. The more I think about how unique this is the more bullish I get, but come on Tesla, throw us that bone.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Do you mind elaborating? I'm wondering what advantages Leaf has in charging, and/or what it supports that Tesla does not

Yah no problem. We live in a province where there is very good Chademo and CCS buildout. And there are a couple areas that are well covered by Chademo and CCS that are not at all covered by Supercharger. An adapter like the one for the S and the X would fix this but I think it’s clear that that will probably never be available for the three. Really it’s not a problem for most. Just happens to be where we need to go. Our problem. Not Tesla’s. Don’t worry. We are keeping the faith.

 

[JusRelax]

Has your expectation of what a car should be changed forever with the model 3?
If yes Tesla wins....
If no then you are not being honest with yourself

this quarterly noise is just a buying opportunity for long TSLA investors....financial analysts do not understand what is happening here ... you cannot compare Tesla to a legacy car company its vision is to move the planet to renewable clean energy.... legacy car companies have the innovators dilemma .... not sure if any will survive in the long run

This is exactly how I see it. For those of you who are long that are frustrated with the current position of the stock: Why are you frustrated? If you believe there's no chance of Tesla going bankrupt and/or a hostile takeover, at worst, you see this value next to $TSLA on a daily basis that doesn't mean anything (since you're long, not short). At best, it provides an opportunity for you to lower your average cost.

 

[dmckinstry]

Here's a summary:
Tesla improved the range of MS/X.
Revealed details that they now make or source their own CPU and computer board for hardware solution for FSD which is x factors faster than Nvidia
Nvidia is upset at tesla but admits their goal and path are the way to go
Tesla thinks robotaxis are coming soon
Alot of cars on ships didn't get delivered within the Q1 window, but will be delivered soon
The world is beginning to understand that EVs are here to stay
Several new EV startups are pushing through
Several regular auto manufacturers are promising more EVs in x years
Continued construction of shanghai factory
Lidar manufacturers are pissed and decide to collude together and short tesla, and they didn't need the lidar to tell them to do this...

Thanks.
And here I thought all the negatives were built into the SP before the report. The financials were worse than I'd hoped for, but Tesla still ended up with ~$2B cash on hand and reported ~20% margin on Model 3.
Sigh. At least I picked up 4 more shares of TSLA at $238.xx before it dropped back into the low 230s

 

[EVDRVN]

aren't they offering free ludicrous for previous owners? Isn't that a lot more bang for your buck?

Depends on who you are. Paying much more for a feature that has a very low Tesla cost or getting free charging which for some is worth many thousands plus substantially resale in many cases. I would rater have the free SC anytime but that's me.

Yeah, I was sad to let the lifetime Supercharging go, but whomever buys the car will be happy.

And, I still get 5,000 miles Supercharging free, with the improved range, that will last me at least two years.

And save you from the SC station drama near your home

 

[Mokuzai]

Weird that they edit it out of the video but then write a story on it?

Chamath Palihapitiya: Musk's Tesla is the 'clear winner' in electric cars

 

[larmor]

Simon Alvarez at Teslarati has just published a new article about the censored CNBC interview with venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya:

Venture capitalist defends Tesla and Elon Musk, issues bold takedown on TSLA skeptics​

I suspect CNBC is going to take down the embedded video too - where Chamath Palihapitiya shreds the CNBC host's TSLAQ talking points with brutal efficiency, but Teslarati has also transcribed the interview, and that probably cannot be taken down.

So if you want to spread the word about the Tesla-positive interview that CNBC is trying to erase from the Internet, this is the link to share.

Reposting from above article a small excerpt:
"So what are we betting against? We’re betting against the cleaner earth because we don’t like that? We like to suck in the carbon monoxide and the fumes from all these cars? We’re betting against beautiful flat screens, beautiful ways in which to manage your experience inside the car because we don’t like that?” he said. "