Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Is there any guess at to when Advanced Summon is going to drop? Not only do I really want it, but Tesla needs that party trick to show that FSD is real. NOA is only real for people already in the pool. AS is for non-believers. No other car will be able to do that for years, if not 10 years. The more I think about how unique this is the more bullish I get, but come on Tesla, throw us that bone.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Webeevdrivers]

We used to own a Leaf. There is no comparison between the ride and driving experience of a Model 3 and a Leaf. Model 3 is a million times better. Unless you are 80 years old and never drive faster than 30 mph, you would have to be crazy to buy a Leaf over a Model 3.

Yah. But it doesn’t matter how good the model three is if I can’t travel where I have to go. I hear you though. Although we are quite fond of our leaf we have driven the model 3 many times. Amazing car. Hope to make it work and still hoping for a Chademo or CCS adapter.

 

[Unpilot]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Yeah ....that did not age well

 

[TradingInvest]

For sure, delivering 90-100k cars as guided in for Q2 will go a long way to repairing the situation.
......

I assume Tesla will generally miss the quarterly and yearly goals. I also assume Tesla will always be a bit late. When I look at the big picture, those don't matter to me. What matters is the society is going through a major transition and Tesla is leading. Autonomous EV, robotaxi, clean energy generation, energy storage...we are at the beginning.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla Model 3, S & X Sales In U.S. In April 2019

Numbers are out

Where does one find the total sales for the month of April or more appropriately the production numbers for April so one can see how many are in transit?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I have an early Leaf, 2013 that I've "given" to my son and his wife as he has a 10 mile RT commute and they have a ICEV for her. The deal I made with them is if they ever need both cars to travel outside the 40 mile circle of comfort, they can swap with my Model 3 as long as I don't also need >40 miles.
If you have a model 3 and need to swap cars with a friend or family member for the weekend that have an ICEV, I'm relatively certain you will have a bidding war for your Tesla.

Heh heh. You know that’s probably very true and something to think about. Thanks for the suggestion.

 

[KSilver2000]

Tesla Model 3, S & X Sales In U.S. In April 2019

Numbers are out

If these estimates are even remotely close, what happened to the “record April” Tesla was claiming? Even if you give benefit of doubt and doubled the total for non-US markets, it’s just ~25k.
These are not bad in itself given the Tesla story. But when compared to talking points by Musk and others at Tesla, those are some typically crappy numbers. This is not how you start a quarter with an estimate of 90-100k. Still can’t get to an average of 5,000/wk model 3’s.

 

[larmor]

Depends on who you are. Paying much more for a feature that has a very low Tesla cost or getting free charging which for some is worth many thousands plus substantially resale in many cases. I would rater have the free SC anytime but that's me.


And save you from the SC station drama near your home

Better to offer ludicrous to prior owners better visualization and low cost for tesla, makes for a better balance sheet. Looks like they are really pushing out the older builds and improving range, the achilles heel of EV is going to be erased... With a range of 370, can easily drive 300 miles straight without getting tired, and recharge at the time of food break.

 

[Swampgator]

If these estimates are even remotely close, what happened to the “record April” Tesla was claiming? Even if you give benefit of doubt and doubled the total for non-US markets, it’s just ~25k.
These are not bad in itself given the Tesla story. But when compared to talking points by Musk and others at Tesla, those are some typically crappy numbers. This is not how you start a quarter with an estimate of 90-100k. Still can’t get to an average of 5,000/wk model 3’s.

25K/month x 3 = 75K just for 3
Would need 5K/month s & X combined worldwide to reach lower end of guidance.
Seems doable

 

[Creekstalker]

Wait, Tesla only sold @12,000 cars in the US in April?

Am I the only person who finds this disappointing? Wasn't guidance somewhere in the 90,000 range for the quarter (worldwide) and the end-of-quarter wave being phased out?

This quarter looking sketchy.

 

[KSilver2000]

Where does one find the total sales for the month of April or more appropriately the production numbers for April so one can see how many are in transit?

InsideEV can’t produce those figures. They only estimate US only sales. You’d have to wait for Tesla to get what you’re looking for, heh.

But, we were told there was a HUGE number of cars in transit at the end of last month. Doesn’t look like that exactly panned out either.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Where does one find the total sales for the month of April or more appropriately the production numbers for April so one can see how many are in transit?

InsideEVs doesn’t have those, just delivery numbers and only in US.

 

[jerry33]

But is the information truth?

And if it is [Panasonic losses] is it just because they couldn't scale as anticipated?

 

[S3XY]

According to my drivers' ed course, an orange sign means "warning", so this means "Warning, Next 4 Miles".

I'm not sure how you tell the self-driving car "Yeah, watch for trouble. No, we don't know what sort, just trouble. Watch for it." Pehaps the most sensible thing to do is to use it as an "alert the human driver" indicator.

The thing is, FSD always has 8 "eyes" watching for trouble, orange sign or not.

 

[KarenRei]

Wait, Tesla only sold @12,000 cars in the US in April?

Am I the only person who finds this disappointing? Wasn't guidance somewhere in the 90,000 range for the quarter (worldwide) and the end-of-quarter wave being phased out?

This quarter looking sketchy.

I can't speak for everyone, but I wrote earlier in the day something along the lines of, "If April Model 3 US sales are over 10k, I'll be very happy. If they're under 7k, I'll be very sad." This is over 10k. I'm very happy.

People were expecting vastly more than 10k US Model 3 deliveries? Really? On the first month of a quarter? With production and deliveries divided between domestic and international? Really?

Our three realtime European countries - Norway, Netherlands, and Spain - all posted record first-month quarters. Some of them blowouts.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The video is already being shared on YouTube so they won't be able to stop it anyway. It was excellent.

"I'm happy to post my returns against Mr. Chanos any time he wants."

LOL

 

[Boomer19]

To be honest, the defense of him and the company right now sounds like delusional fanboism.



He never says things as "I think" or "I hope" or "my guidance is..." he makes statements that sound like assured commitments, and he does not always deliver in the end at all, he moves the goalposts to score. 2018 - deifnitely no equity raise needed... 2018 this forum "no equity raise, if you disagree you're full of FUD and don't know anything". 2019 - "we think we need to do an equity raise..."



I'm glad you said that exactly like that. Because most of the people posting here desperately want Tesla and TSLA to succeed, but telling people to STFU or accusing them of parroting FUD simply because they can see this emperor is not wearing any clothes, doesn't help anyone. If anyone things the current share price (which is 20% lower than it was in August 2014) is because of Chanos, CNBC and a couple of haters, then they're completely insane.

I honestly have not seen this kind of blind loyalty to a company constantly shooting itself in the face since 3dfx sank in the earlly 2000's - or maybe even since Atari (ask your dad...)

em, last year, said cap raise was possible, likely in 2019, and that he specifically didn’t want to do it in 2018

not a huge fan of over optimism/pessimism either - if anything, i wish we talked about more trading analysis stuff here. i do like truly informative posts and analysis about upcoming products, competition, the industry, etc. i like the information discovery here, but that’s mostly sporadic at this point.

and we don’t talk about market action or delve into it much

there’s a lot of ground to cover when you’re away a few days. and it’s not easy to find relevant posts (unless you ignore, which i don’t, but maybe have to start??)

the goal of the trolls was to destroy this forum. have they done so? i don’t know. i was away from day to day for a few months. now i can’t tell who they are.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

InsideEV can’t produce those figures. They only estimate US only sales. You’d have to wait for Tesla to get what you’re looking for, heh.

But, we were told there was a HUGE number of cars in transit at the end of last month. Doesn’t look like that exactly panned out either.

That would depend where they were in transit to, no? We know they continued having record deliveries in Europe well into April.

 

[jerry33]

Do you mind elaborating? I'm wondering what advantages Leaf has in charging, and/or what it supports that Tesla does not

In British Columbia there are many CCS and CHAdeMO locations, few Superchargers.

 

[KarenRei]

Netherlands (red = Q2):

Norway:

Spain:

US Model 3 sales are up 50% quarter-over-quarter. And yet some people here are disappointed? Geez, people.

This is exactly what I wanted to see. The next thing I need to see is, in the May numbers, a big surge in S+X due to the new version coming on the market. If May M3 numbers are 10k or more, and there's a big S+X surge, then this will be looking like a very healthy quarter. You cap it off with a ~15k M3 June and that'd be ~35k domestic vs. 22,5k in Q1, a 56% improvement. Which would be massive.

Gotta show that S+X sales are recovered in May, though.

(I'm assuming here that Tesla will be capable of delivering the new S+X en masse in May)