Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Hyper bulls always run to FSD when desperate to maintain their confirmation bias of valuation

Anton, is that you, the GM supporting perma-bear ?

 

[sundaymorning]

Especially since the macro timeline is the following:

• China trade agreement: March 1 deadline. It would be rather Trumpian approach to play brinkmanship up to the last minute before the 'greatest China deal ever' [closed by a toddler that is]. Plenty of opportunity for macro to be lousy in the Feb 15-28 time frame.
  
• Brexit: March 29 deadline, with PM May exercising brinkmanship.
• U.S. Government shutdown: Republicans are hurting in the polls, but November of next year is far away - maybe they have the stamina to try to change the narrative until end of March?

Note, I can see any of these resolved before Feb 15, and I'd expect at minimum the government shutdown to be ended by then, but it's not a certainty IMO.

• Then there's also the March 1 convertibles - wouldn't market participants want to wait for that chunk of money to be paid back successfully?

Did you mean can’t?

 

[Fact Checking]

How much of these false flag "this might look like FSD is right around the corner" signals do we need to learn our lesson?

While you are justified to doubt Elon's forward looking predictions and timetable, this time they have real hardware and real networks, and I actually trust the estimates of Andrej Karpathy, Tesla's Director of AI Products, and Pete Bannon, Tesla's Director of Hardware Engineering who says that they have the HW 3.0 board assembly lines installed already.

According to firmware analysis their AI CPU is at around its 8th internal silicon iteration - which suggests a mature design, not a first-tapeout product.

There's also this recent leak.

At minium I'd expect HW3 to massively improve the EAP-like features of the FSD mode, over baseline EAP. That's a natural property of neural networks that increase by an order of magnitude.

 

[replicant]

To me honestly, with that new information I do not see Tesla over 350$ before June 30th again.

The next 2 quarters get rough.

What gamble do you recommend, then?
Edit: just kidding

 

[SteveG3]

Hyper bulls always run to FSD when desperate to maintain their confirmation bias of valuation

Hey is this the Anton W who I saw beside the Pres of Cadillac on CNBC just last week?

 

[KarenRei]

That is not correct. May genuinely doesn't have any good options i.e. options that can win majority in the parliament.

On 29 January we close the question of whether there will be a second referendum, as MPs will be voting on it.
The "extension or no extension" issue should be closed well before mid-February.
Also it should be clear whether the remaining time will be allocated toward "orderly no-deal brexit" or "some sort of new deal or compromise" or "pointless time-wasting brinksmanship".

 

[Fact Checking]

Did you mean can’t?

I meant "can" - I can see any of those items resolved before Feb 15, in particular Republicans might be forced to open the U.S. government again, they are hurting in the polls.

 

[KarenRei]

Off to the races we go....

 

[jbih]

I now wonder if an unprofitable Q1 is in play, as well as upcoming S&P 500 addition. Reduced headcount now won’t help Q1. Hopefully all those high margin European sales are enough. Q2+ is definitely worrisome to me. I hope those S and X improvements come out real soon now.

I believe Q1 will be the only critical one due to many cars in transit to Europe/China. Q2+ will be great!

 

[KarenRei]

IMHO strangely stable so far... I was expecting wild swings at open.

 

[Anton W]

Tesla is recalling over 14,000 Model S vehicles exported to China due to Takata airbag issue

 

[EVNow]

Off to the races we go....

Probably a wild ride today.

Starting 6% down.

 

[Anton W]

Anton, is that you, the GM supporting perma-bear ?

No he's much better looking than me.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla is recalling over 14,000 Model S vehicles exported to China due to Takata airbag issue

What was the number for other companies - to put things in perspective ?

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla is recalling over 14,000 Model S vehicles exported to China due to Takata airbag issue

Old news. And it's not a "Tesla" recall, it's a recall of 35-40 million cars worldwide from many brands.

 

[EVNow]

No he's much better looking than me.

So, you are a different short troll ? Reported.

 

[SteveG3]

No he's much better looking than me.

I kinda suspected it was really you : )

As long as you’re here, what year do you predict Tesla’s market share worldwide in long range (200+ mile) EVs will fall below 50%? Same question, but, this time, what year excluding Chinese automakers?

 

[jbih]

Can Tesla delay revenue/profit from Q4 to Q1? Q1 is the critical one due to cars in transit for several weeks not generating revenue, so if all quarters forward are to be profitable, delaying revenue from Q4 to Q1 seems sensible and it would contribute to Q4 being less than Q3.

 

[mongo]

Can Tesla delay revenue/profit from Q4 to Q1?

Not in the middle of January...

 

[jeewee3000]

To me honestly, with that new information I do not see Tesla over 350$ before June 30th again.

The next 2 quarters get rough.

You are bizarro TT007. Same intensity, opposite emotion. Equally unreliable as source for trading.

Why is Q4 profit less than Q3. IIRC, most were predicting higher profit.

China investments is my guess.