1) Because China's 28 million new vehicle market has a ZEV mandate, which will require sales of at least 560,000 or more PEVs every year.
1) Because US ZEV states have something like a 6.8 million new vehicle market, which will require sales of 161,500 plug-ins next year.
2) Because China's 28 million market and US ZEV states' 6.8M markets are going to have ZEV mandates ramp up every year until 2025. I'm not sure how China's rules work on PHEV share, but US ZEV rules are increasingly making PHEV unattractive.
3) Because the EU market is going to have tougher fuel economy standards from next year and those will get even tougher over the next few years.
4) Because diesel sales have reduced significantly in the EU+EFTA market and that has forced manufacturers' hands.
The "commitments" from manufacturers came after China announced its ZEV mandate. The combined impact is large enough that half-hearted efforts will quickly become very expensive (credit purchases, rebates), and also risks medium to long-term impact as falling costs of electrification grow demand.
Whatever manufacturers think about electrification, the regulatory environment is forcing their hand. FCA has found out the hard way.
1) Yes, but what's missing for this analysis is that not every car will earn the max Zev credits. Most EVs sold today in China are tiny city cars and do not qualify for any Zev credits. I am not 100% on the exact numbers but the range must be over 100km to earn any and to earn max, you need to be closer to 250mi range. 10% Zev is the requirement so 24Mil cars sold, will require 2.4M Zevs or 600k long range EVs. But if half are short range, you need even more. Also, imports do not quality, cars must be made in China and probably batteries sourced there as well, though im not sure about the latter, just a guess.
2) Yes PHEV are worth very little or nothing. Must have 100KM range or greater to get any credit. This program mimics Californias almost identically, with the major difference being a higher precent of total vehilces sold and of course it covers all of China and not just Carb States like in the US.
This is why every auto has plans to make EVs in China and almost none are making them in the US. Look at VW, they are targeting 500k EVs sold by 2023 or something but only 5% of those will be sold in the US. This is because the Autos already have all the Zev credits they need in the US with very few exceptions.
I think Tesla strategy here is simple. They will keep undercutting the competition so that they cannot sell their compliance cars for enough money to offset the ZEV requirements. Who is going to compete with S3XY in China and Europe with 250mi range on the low end and maybe as much as 400 on the high end with 2170 pack in a few years. They are struggling to hit 200 with 80KWh+ packs.
Just in time for the eturd, eqc, the model X gets a bump to 250/325mi range at reduced prices compared to 200mi range from the smaller 5 seaters.
Also, just before Taycant is available, model S gets 370 mi range and quicker 0-60. They also get 200KW charging which given how efficient they are, they will add miles at the same rate as the 350KW Taycant and for longer due to the size of the battery.
