Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
It comes down to demonstrating that soft Q1 was a temporary event or not.

If you think Q2 total deliveries will be 63k again, stay out of the stock. If you think Q2 will have close to 50% more deliveries than Q1, run, don’t walk from your short position.

That email did not help our cause.

The market is in "prove it" mode and we don't really have any catalysts until july.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Anstandswauwau
It comes down to demonstrating that soft Q1 was a temporary event, or not.

If you think Q2 total deliveries will be 63k again, stay out of the stock. If you think Q2 will have close to 50% more deliveries than Q1, run, don’t walk from your short position.

Deliveries for Q2 below 75k bearish cloud grows/stays probably at least another quarters, between 75k and 85k still somewhat cloudy, going beyond 85k lifts clouds some. Guidance is 90-100k. Sentiment hammered by media is that’s a pipe dream.


NO, there is no need to do anything quickly, cant argue with the market.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WarpedOne
Valuations based on value investing guidelines:

Tesla zero
UBer zero
AMZN 500 SP (maybe)
We works zero
GOOG 500 SP

No need to continue. If we are going to value Tesla as a mature company that needs to show profits and cash flow there is no bottom in sight. Despite how ridiculous this is, everyone seems to be on board with this idea right now. Shorts, WS, MM, OEM, big oil....guess this should not surprise anyone. Would love to triple my position on dollar terms when we hit bottom. But where is that? Best guesses....I could see 100. Could also see this turning around holding and climbing back to 300 plus in a few months. Sheesh this is hard stuff....
 
That email did not help our cause.

The market is in "prove it" mode and we don't really have any catalysts until july.

Shareholder meeting is in 3 weeks... not a guarantee that we’ll get update re guidance, but, question is likely to be asked in Q&A if not in presentation.

What’s more, we may get a couple of analyst notes as soon as this week that emotions have overridden reason, and Musk’s comments have been widely misrepresented, stock far oversold. Perhaps some feedback re reassurances from talk with management in said potential notes.
 
Valuations based on value investing guidelines:

Tesla zero
UBer zero
AMZN 500 SP (maybe)
We works zero
GOOG 500 SP

No need to continue. If we are going to value Tesla as a mature company that needs to show profits and cash flow there is no bottom in sight. Despite how ridiculous this is, everyone seems to be on board with this idea right now. Shorts, WS, MM, OEM, big oil....guess this should not surprise anyone. Would love to triple my position on dollar terms when we hit bottom. But where is that? Best guesses....I could see 100. Could also see this turning around holding and climbing back to 300 plus in a few months. Sheesh this is hard stuff....

Rest assured that no matter what happens the ones who guessed right will come back here and stand on a high horse and let everyone know how smart they are.
 
Guess today we break through $200..... o_O
Mod : I may get technical a bit but hope not too much so to stay in thread. Please indulge, I think this is important data, but you to decide of course.

We just got into oversold territory on hourly last Friday.

We might remain oversold for a week or 2 until the SP drop more and gets us in oversold on daily, maybe even weekly (I have 180 ish in mind to do so, but that is just over my head).

Last time we went into oversold on daily was Feb 2016.

We never got into oversold on weekly.... (bellow 20 RSI)

So this might look technical but overbought/oversold is more fundamental to me than technical because that is the essence of the market : share price reflect demand and offer...

Q2 forecast form TSLA management is not shinny, and other companies are shooting for all time high (or really close). So it is just rational movement that big pockets don't buy TSLA... yet.

We need update at annual shareholder assembly that would provide some light at the end of the tunnel and/or good number for Q2 to reverse at this point. Other than that, your guess are as good as mine, often I tried to rationale TSLA share price movement and got surprised by announcement that I would have never thought of.

I kept some dry powder since we broke 240 ish just in case we were to get to 180. Honestly I thought I was stupid to so.
 
NO, there
Valuations based on value investing guidelines:

Tesla zero
UBer zero
AMZN 500 SP (maybe)
We works zero
GOOG 500 SP

No need to continue. If we are going to value Tesla as a mature company that needs to show profits and cash flow there is no bottom in sight. Despite how ridiculous this is, everyone seems to be on board with this idea right now. Shorts, WS, MM, OEM, big oil....guess this should not surprise anyone. Would love to triple my position on dollar terms when we hit bottom. But where is that? Best guesses....I could see 100. Could also see this turning around holding and climbing back to 300 plus in a few months. Sheesh this is hard stuff....

Value investing looks at forecasting future earnings to attempt to determine probable current value.

Opinions vary on future Tesla earnings prospects and how much confidence in various scenarios, but all those analyst targets do not come from thin air. Models are created of future earnings and/or cash flow, and present value is estimated based on the forecasts of those models. Bullish analysts do that, bearish analysts do that, when Warren Buffett analyses companies he looks at such modeled future earnings, cash flows. This is fundamental investing. Assumptions vary.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger
Please don’t, any announcement Tesla makes, no matter what will tank the stock
Pretty much. We need an announcement showing that Q2 will be on track, not a silly insurance product. Tesla needs to show that it is focused on taking care of it's shareholders. There is obvious panic and Elon just doesn't care