I think this also means that majority of SR reservations did not go for MR.>75% were non-reservation-holders. That doesn’t sound like a drop in demand. The incredibly low level of inventory also suggests that they’re still selling every car they can make; still production constrained, despite higher levels of production and shrinking supply of reservation holders(in the US, who wanted long range).
Going by Q3 letter numbers for reservations: 455k - 20% cancellations = 364k, lets take 50% for U.S. = 182k.
I feel that majority of high trim reservations were fulfilled through Q3.
Total M3 delivered=146k(2018)+ ~2k(2017)=148k
Out of this number, Q4 non-reservations = 63k*.75=47k+, i.e. 101k reservations MAX were fulfilled. However, many Q3 orders were not reservations; I don't think the ratio was posted anywhere. My feel is that at least 10% - especially Ps, which were given priority delivery, so all non-reservation Ps were promptly delivered in Q3. Also, non-AWDs line was gone and RWDs were being delivered w/o reservations promptly. Some AWDs were non- reservations depending on region/luck(if somebody cancelled).
I.e. out of 56k deliveries in Q3 at least 5k were non-reservations.
101k-5k=96k overall reservations fullfilled.
Then I know some high trim reservation orders spilled over into Q4, because not enough cars to fullfill all AWDs were made in Q3. Not sure how many, but prob. few K.
So, ~182k reservations in U.S.
Fullfilled overall: 96k.
Fullfilled in Q4 = 63k*.25 = 16k.
High trim spillover from Q3 to Q4 = (out of the blue) 2k.
14k supposedly SR reservations lured into MR.
Outstanding U.S. reservations(assuming none cancelled after Q3) = 182 - 96k = 86k.
I.e. only 14% of ~100k SR reservations went for MR. (14k ordered + 86k outstanding).
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