Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

>75% were non-reservation-holders. That doesn’t sound like a drop in demand. The incredibly low level of inventory also suggests that they’re still selling every car they can make; still production constrained, despite higher levels of production and shrinking supply of reservation holders(in the US, who wanted long range).

I think this also means that majority of SR reservations did not go for MR.

Going by Q3 letter numbers for reservations: 455k - 20% cancellations = 364k, lets take 50% for U.S. = 182k.
I feel that majority of high trim reservations were fulfilled through Q3.
Total M3 delivered=146k(2018)+ ~2k(2017)=148k
Out of this number, Q4 non-reservations = 63k*.75=47k+, i.e. 101k reservations MAX were fulfilled. However, many Q3 orders were not reservations; I don't think the ratio was posted anywhere. My feel is that at least 10% - especially Ps, which were given priority delivery, so all non-reservation Ps were promptly delivered in Q3. Also, non-AWDs line was gone and RWDs were being delivered w/o reservations promptly. Some AWDs were non- reservations depending on region/luck(if somebody cancelled).
I.e. out of 56k deliveries in Q3 at least 5k were non-reservations.
101k-5k=96k overall reservations fullfilled.
Then I know some high trim reservation orders spilled over into Q4, because not enough cars to fullfill all AWDs were made in Q3. Not sure how many, but prob. few K.

So, ~182k reservations in U.S.
Fullfilled overall: 96k.
Fullfilled in Q4 = 63k*.25 = 16k.
High trim spillover from Q3 to Q4 = (out of the blue) 2k.
14k supposedly SR reservations lured into MR.
Outstanding U.S. reservations(assuming none cancelled after Q3) = 182 - 96k = 86k.
I.e. only 14% of ~100k SR reservations went for MR. (14k ordered + 86k outstanding).

 

[Cherry Wine]

wow, just wow how calm the stock is without short selling. just sideways. boring.

Very telling.

Ok, I had gambled a bit and bought a few June '19 $350 calls when the SP was around $350 and slightly below. What are the odds that I'll be able to at least recover my outlay (SP recovers to >= $400 by June '19)? Anyone?

I'd say "decent".

 

[anthonyj]

Looking back at earnings call dates -- both announcements and the calls themselves -- if folks want to try and use the data for positioning purposes.

Some tidbits from the data:

• Both the mean and median date of announcement for all quarters going back to Q1 2016 is the 19th day following quarter end.
• Positive quarters within this period weren't exclusively announced early - Q3 '16 was announced on the 7th day following quarter end, well before the mean/median date of announcement, whereas Q3 '18 was announced on the 22nd day following quarter end.
• Q4 calls going back to Q4 '13 are announced later on average in the following quarter, with average day of following quarter as: 2013: 29th, 2014: 29th, 2015: 25th, 2016: 33rd, 2017: 33rd, for a mean of 30 and a median of 29.

2016:

Q1: Announced 4/20 (LOL) / Held 5/4 (EPS: -2.13)
Q2: Announced 7/19 / Held 8/3 (EPS: -2.09)
Q3: Announced 10/7 / Held 10/26 (EPS: 0.14)
Q4: Announced 2/2 / Held 2/22 (EPS: -0.60)

2017:

Q1: Announced 4/13 / Held 5/3 (EPS: -2.04)
Q2: Announced 7/11 / Held 8/2 (EPS: -2.04)
Q3: Announced 10/19 / Held 11/1 (EPS: -3.70)
Q4: Announced 2/2 / Held 2/7 (EPS: -4.05)


2018:

Q1: Announced 4/19 / Held 5/2 (EPS: -4.19)
Q2: Announced 7/19 / Held 8/1 (EPS: -4.22)
Q3: Announced 10/22 / Held 10/24 (EPS: 1.75)

Good analysis. I’m predicting ER next week since Elon hates shorts

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - Gene Munster on Tesla - today:

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Loup Ventures' Gene Munster, On Tesla Q4 Figures, Notes Production, Delivery Were Fractionally (

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - UPDATE: Loup's Munster Calls Tesla's Q4 Figures, News Of Price Cut 'psychological setbacks for investors looking to gain confidence...but the news does not fundamentally change the company's long-term opportunity...'

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - UPDATE: Loup's Munster Notes Price Reduction For Tesla Cars Equates To ~3% Average Discount On A Tesla, 'If Tesla had a demand issue, they would have to discount by more than 3%'

 

[nursebee]

Nissan sold 49,117 Leafs worldwide during its first two years in the market,

 

[Sancho]

I’m not a big fan of the way Musk puts himself and everyone else through real hell to accomplish his objectives, but wow, his success is breathtaking.

I guess it’s true that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, and this production and delivery report is testament to a very strong company as it enters 2019.

 

[avoigt]

Very telling.



I'd say "decent".

Do we have prove short selling was restricted due to the SEC rule? I have seen different calculations above or below the required 10%.

Ighor did not confirm it Eiter.

Usually shorts make sure they do not trigger the 10%.

 

[saniflash]

Do we have prove short selling was restricted due to the SEC rule? I have seen different calculations above or below the required 10%.

Ighor did not confirm it Eiter.

Usually shorts make sure they do not trigger the 10%.

 

[Fact Checking]

China delivery also to start in February. Looks like they are shipping them over like in Europe.

(...) There remain significant opportunities to continue to grow Model 3 sales by expanding to international markets, introducing lower-priced variants and offering leasing. International deliveries in Europe and China will start in February 2019. Expansion of Model 3 sales to other markets, including with a right-hand drive variant, will occur later in 2019. (...)

Several posters predicted this, in fact I think the logical thing would be for Tesla to prioritize China Model 3 deliveries, because:

• the lower China import tariffs are only valid for the first quarter for the time being. If Trump interferes again then Q2 tariffs could be higher.
• Plus in China they might want to front-load demand right now, and reduce supply in Q3/Q4 as the Shanghai Gigafactory starts building Model 3's.

So shipping Model 3's to China and Europe is the logical next step.

 

[pz1975]

The market response to today’s P&D report feels like similar drops in SP that didn’t make sense (fires in late 2013, end of 2016, August/Sept 2018). For us knowledgeable TSLA investors, it makes us scratch our heads and wonder why there is such a disconnect between the company’s successes and the stock price. I feel a similar sentiment today. Looking back, this is the best time to add more TSLA because eventually (I think after the Q4 earnings report), the stock price will rise again once the market catches up to what we know. I added a significant number of TSLA shares and LEAPS today (as well as selling some OTM puts for this week to pay for the margin I am using - I do this almost every week and it easily cover my margin costs + adds additional profit).

 

[dc_h]

Yes, but they probably sold more 100 kWh configurations in 2018 than in 2017 - the Model S/X average sales price was steadily increasing in 2018. The 100D and 100P uses 33% more 18,650 cells than the 75D configurations.

So the real supply constraint is the number of 18,650 cells per year, contracted from Panasonic, manufactured in Japan. If Tesla sells more 100D and 100P configurations then the unit count can drop below 100k. This is probably the reason for the 'approximately 100,000 units' language Tesla uses in their guidance.

So what if Tesla continues to offer the 75 SX variants with 18650 cells, but updates the 100 versions to a 120 with 2160 cells? That would keep cash flow going for Panasonic Japan and create a new top of the line SX to spur high end demand. If they assemble SX in Shanghai for local use, driving down prices and expanding market share.

 

[hacer]

Graph courtesy of Chevy Volt FB Owners Group

Looks like they didn't manage the timing well either. Hit the cap near the end of a quarter instead of the beginning. Thus only one additional quarter of full tax credit instead of two for GM buyers.

 

[KarenRei]

Looks like they didn't manage the timing well either. Hit the cap near the end of a quarter instead of the beginning. Thus only one additional quarter of full tax credit instead of two for GM buyers.

Yep. GM needs congress to renew the credit *this quarter*. Otherwise the Bolt is going to get even more unreasonably priced, and they'll struggle to move them in ZEV states to get the credits that they need. And California's ZEV requirement increases a lot in 2019, from 4,5% to 7%.

 

[Alphacrux]

Very telling.



I'd say "decent".

I’ll take $375 a few months earlier (March-April).

 

[Buckminster]

The $1B in FCF

Fact Checking mentioned getting close to $1Bn.
Only one word for it if we do:
Succulent!

 

[brian45011]

Fine if you want to argue on that definition. Then so is every product that hasn't worked down the full price/demand curve.

But it still shows they are price-elastic They wouldn't do this unless they expected demand at this level to drop.

And I agree it's fine as long as healthy margins will remain.

What are the implications with respect to Tesla's previously announced policy of pricing vehicles identically world-wide (net) after adjusting for factors beyond Tesla control such as VAT, tariffs, currency risks, etc? There has been discussion about incentives expiring in Holland and Canada; are price reductions also offered in those markets?

 

[Fact Checking]

Looks like they didn't manage the timing well either. Hit the cap near the end of a quarter instead of the beginning. Thus only one additional quarter of full tax credit instead of two for GM buyers.

Might have been due to independent GM dealerships selling the Bolt in a poorly coordinated fashion - and it's not like GM could have gone to them "hey let's withhold supply to game the tax credit!".

 

[KarenRei]

Might have been due to independent GM dealerships selling the Bolt in a poorly coordinated fashion - and it's not like GM could have gone to them "hey let's withhold supply to game the tax credit!".

They could have just shut down / slowed down the line to rob them of supply, while keeping track of how much inventory their dealerships had on-hand.

 

[MXWing]

While it would be helpful for GM to hit it in Q3, I don’t think they could be that grossly incompetent.

A car counts as sold as soon as it hits the lot of a dealer right? Doesn’t have to go to the end consumer?

 

[KarenRei]

While it would be helpful for GM to hit it in Q3, I don’t think they could be that grossly incompetent.

A car counts as sold as soon as it hits the lot of a dealer right? Doesn’t have to go to the end consumer?

End consumer, not dealer.