Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

And in other news....

Once again GM totally fails at strategy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/gm-hit-200000-us-electric-vehicles-sold-in-2018.html?


Total preventable fail IMHO

Good news for us. It means GM is going to feel more urgency in getting the tax credit renewed / reformed (and they're historically good at legislative pressure in this regard - note how the current tax credit is built around the size of the original Volt's battery pack). And whenever it becomes clear that congress is going to do this, it's going to be great for Tesla's SP.

 

[Tslynk67]

Can this be translated?

Seems obvious - building permit has been granted and it will be completed in 6 months. But what's the source? In any case, it's in-line with production 2H19 as stated by Elon.

 

[EVNow]

Reuters - today: GM sold 200,000 electric vehicles in U.S. by 2018, triggering tax-credit phaseout: source | Reuters

Good. They will push harder to get the tax credit renewed. I still think the best bet is for Dems to include it in any government reopening deal.

 

[mongo]

With these figures, is it remotely possible that 2018 becomes profitable as a whole?

Very very remote...
Need $1.25 Billion or so profit in Q4...

 

[Xpert]

What am I missing?

Q3 is was a blowout and profitable quarter based on the number of cars produced and delivered.

Q4 had more cars produced and delivered. It's a safe assumption that the cost to produce/deliver each car has gone down quarter over quarter?

Lower margin across all models starting Q1 due to price reduction. Maybe lowered again in 6 months and then 12 months.
I’ve reduced my stake by 20% last monday and looking to buy back. Will have to find out what the real impact is for a -$2000/car in US will be on Margin.

 

[Tslynk67]

InsideEV's gets it: Tesla Model 3 Sales Shatter All Records In December 2018

 

[KarenRei]

Lower margin across all models starting Q1 due to price reduction. Maybe lowered again in 6 months and then 12 months.
I’ve reduced my stake by 20% last monday and looking to buy back. Will have to find out what the real impact is for a -$2000/car in US will be on Margin.

Tesla knows what its margins are. Their price adjustments will be in line with meeting or exceeding guidance, which is a 20% Model 3 margin for Q4.

 

[Cobbler]

I just finished reading the Q3 letter again. With Q4 numbers released, everything looks rather 'normal as expected'

Model 3 quarterly production and deliveries should continue to increase in Q4 compared to Q3..

Q3 had 4300/wk m3 production rate (excluding shutdowns). Q4 had an average production run rate of 4722/wk CHECK!
(As a sceptical bull, I do have to admit that 5k/wk run rate is already due 1 year. But what the hell, who cares.... Tesla is getting there in Elon time)

Our target of delivering 100,000 Model S and X vehicles this year remains unchanged

Seems to be the case. Delivered 99,394 cars (0.7% error) CHECK!

We expect gross margin for Model 3 to remain stable in Q4 as manufacturing efficiencies and fixed cost absorption offset a slightly lower trim mix and the negative impact of tariffs from Chinese sourced components. Gross margin for Model S and X will likely decline slightly in Q4, as we expect that the sequential increase in tariffs in Q4 from Chinese sourced components will be only partially offset by increased manufacturing cost efficiencies. For all three vehicles, additional tariffs in Q4 on parts sourced from China will impact our gross profit negatively by roughly $50 million
Energy generation and storage revenue should decline slightly in Q4 compared to Q3, mainly due to seasonality of the solar business. As a result of lower solar mix and seasonality, gross margin of this segment should also decline slightly in Q4. We expect our Services and Other business to continue to grow mainly due to used car sales volumes. Gross margin of this segment should see further sequential improvement. We will increase investment in our service infrastructure in North America through deployment of new service locations and additional mobile service vehicles.

Conclusion: Q4 numbers will be slightly less in comparison to Q3
Starman would say: 'Don't panic'

 

[MarcusMaximus]

From my quick list it appears people can apply for a new sticker. Did any cars get dropped of the eligibility list? Or am I reading something wrong?

You can apply for a new sticker if you didn’t receive one before Jan 1, 2017(I got a new one because I got my white sticker in mid-Jan 2017). If your sticker was from before that, no more carpool lane for your car.

 

[ggies07]

I'm about to see Vice with my mom and these car commercials have got to go. We need Tesla to have one. Yeah I know, no marketing blah, blah, blah, but I freaking hate watching these commercials lie to the people sitting here in the theater.

 

[thx1139]

Lower margin across all models starting Q1 due to price reduction. Maybe lowered again in 6 months and then 12 months.
I’ve reduced my stake by 20% last monday and looking to buy back. Will have to find out what the real impact is for a -$2000/car in US will be on Margin.

Dont know how much of that is offset by lower production costs. Remember Model 3 margins have been increasing quarter over quarter.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You wonder why days like today happen then the talking heads on CNBC open their mouths.

"The Journal says these things aren't profitable and are worse than gas cars for the environment!"

Stunning willful ignorance.

 

[oneday]

Seeing as the uptick rule will be in effect. I bought some Jan4 310s at $7.35. Wish I would have pulled the trigger earlier today but I was mainly just dumbfounded by the price action today.

Delivery report suggests Tesla will break $7B in revenue in Q4 and should easily break $1B in FCF for the quarter. In my perspective, the deliveries report was a home run. The market is nuts

Edit: The $1B in FCF I’m estimating includes the November bond repayment.

 

[Hock1]

Naked short selling is actually legal for certain entities Key Points About Regulation SHO. It definitely happens (both legally and illegally) but it's usually temporary. Presently there is no hard evidence of it being a persistent problem for TSLA. It will be curious to see what the December failure-to-deliver report will look like since the November reports where peculiar.

I would put no faith in FTD reports. The FTDS are reported to the SEC by the DTCC. Goldman Sachs and others of their ilk own and operate the DTCC. The DTCC is a SRO (self-regulating organization). GS is one of the largest lenders of shares for short sellers. GS has an enormous vested interest in the shorts being successful. If it came down to reporting a significant amount of FTDs in the system, as a result of undelivered shares, ( I.e., more than what is allowed by Reg SHO), do you think maybe GS may not report the real number? I do. BTW, the November report was peculiar, probably for a reason. AMO.

 

[Alphacrux]

Starman would say: 'Don't panic'

Ok, I had gambled a bit and bought a few June '19 $350 calls when the SP was around $350 and slightly below. What are the odds that I'll be able to at least recover my outlay (SP recovers to >= $400 by June '19)? Anyone?

 

[anthonyj]

Ok, I had gambled a bit and bought a few June '19 $350 calls when the SP was around $350 and slightly below. What are the odds that I'll be able to at least recover my outlay (SP recovers to >= $400 by June '19)? Anyone?

It’s going back to $380 within the next month or two for sure. Then it will drop sub $300 before Q1 ER. It’s become a self fulfilled prophecy

 

[MXWing]

From my quick list it appears people can apply for a new sticker. Did any cars get dropped of the eligibility list? Or am I reading something wrong?

You can only apply for the red sticker if your green/white sticker was issued on or after Jan 1st, 2017.

Starting Jan 1st, 2019 - stickers issued will be purple.

Red stickers are valid until Jan 1st, 2022
Purple stickers are valid until Jan 1st, 2023

New color stickers are expected to be released each year with 4 year expiration assuming the process remains consistent.

MOD: ZERO more discussion about a state-specific, boring-as-all-heck-to-others, utterly NON-market related topic. Take it to the "California" page. Absolutely no tolerance.

 

[Zaxxon]

OT

I'm about to see Vice with my mom and these car commercials have got to go. We need Tesla to have one. Yeah I know, no marketing blah, blah, blah, but I freaking hate watching these commercials lie to the people sitting here in the theater.

My 7 y.o. daughter asked me this weekend why we never see a Tesla commercial.

'Cause we don't need to, kiddo. Cause we don't need to.

I was impressed that at 7 she caught onto the fact that other brands are bombarding us with ads and Tesla's not.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Looking back at earnings call dates -- both announcements and the calls themselves -- if folks want to try and use the data for positioning purposes.

Some tidbits from the data:

• Both the mean and median date of announcement for all quarters going back to Q1 2016 is the 19th day following quarter end.
• Positive quarters within this period weren't exclusively announced early - Q3 '16 was announced on the 7th day following quarter end, well before the mean/median date of announcement, whereas Q3 '18 was announced on the 22nd day following quarter end.
• Q4 calls going back to Q4 '13 are announced later on average in the following quarter, with average day of following quarter as: 2013: 29th, 2014: 29th, 2015: 25th, 2016: 33rd, 2017: 33rd, for a mean of 30 and a median of 29.

2016:

Q1: Announced 4/20 (LOL) / Held 5/4 (EPS: -2.13)
Q2: Announced 7/19 / Held 8/3 (EPS: -2.09)
Q3: Announced 10/7 / Held 10/26 (EPS: 0.14)
Q4: Announced 2/2 / Held 2/22 (EPS: -0.60)

2017:

Q1: Announced 4/13 / Held 5/3 (EPS: -2.04)
Q2: Announced 7/11 / Held 8/2 (EPS: -2.04)
Q3: Announced 10/19 / Held 11/1 (EPS: -3.70)
Q4: Announced 2/2 / Held 2/7 (EPS: -4.05)


2018:

Q1: Announced 4/19 / Held 5/2 (EPS: -4.19)
Q2: Announced 7/19 / Held 8/1 (EPS: -4.22)
Q3: Announced 10/22 / Held 10/24 (EPS: 1.75)

 

[winfield100]

an intriguing graphic.
someone seems to believe in Tesla, Institutional investors

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231091-tesla-institutional-investors-return?app=1