Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Looks likes he got radicalized by social media, stock drop and likely TSLAQ

Or got photoshopped.

 

[Thekiwi]

Yes, that's why I really like these. I have leaps and TSLA too, but unlike options, convertibles have no time pressure and they pay back face value in all but the absolutely worst case. They also drop less during down cycles. E.g. since I bought mine, TLSA dropped 25% while the bonds dropped 13%. In theory, I could sell a portion of the bonds, and buy equities at a lower entry point. Otoh if TSLA had gone up, I'd participate in the upside through the conversion assuming it cracked 310 in 5 years.

Another way to look the convertible bonds at $90 is they pay 2.2%, with an effectively strike of $280, because it costs $90 to get $100 face value applied to the conversion.

Is the conversion price protected for share dilution? Or will it always be set at $310?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Zero, zilch, none,nada

And none in sight. The nation has just returned the backwards looking Morrison govt.
Sad. 30 years ago we were tech progressive. A test bed for ATMs for example.
Falling behind fast now. Not one electric bus in Sydney. National Broadband Network has dismal speed. (Starlink will be v popular)

 

[Fact Checking]

Thanks for the replies everyone. It appears I have overreacted to the news based on the mistaken assumption that all those Zoe’s would have put Renault in a better position to benefit FCA - but apparently not quite enough.

Yes, and note that the underlying question is a valid question and a valid concern: how does Renault merging with Fiat impact the Fiat-Tesla CO₂ pool?

Basically the "easy" CO₂ emissions numbers to keep in mind are:

• _90 g/km: EU average per carmaker target limit above which where fines begin
• 105 g/km: Renault's average for every new car sold, +15 g/km over EU requirements
• 115 g/km: Fiat's average for every new car sold, +25 g/km over EU requirements
• __0 g/km: Tesla's reduction of the average for every new Tesla sold in the EU - which reduces the pool's emissions by -105-115 g/km, depending on the exact mix of Fiat and Renault cars made, reducing the pool's EU fines significantly, until their average drops below 90 g/km at which point there are no fines imposed by the EU.

(The actual rules are (much) more complicated, but this is the gist for it, with the additional twist that the first few ten thousand Tesla (and Renault ZOE) units sold each year will reduce liability by about twice as much than the remaining EVs, due to the 'super-credits' system. The super-credits still only have an about ~1 g/km order of magnitude impact on the total averages, so they are very good to Tesla, but the ZOE doesn't significantly change the overall calculation.)

These average emissions numbers are very difficult to change for both Fiat and Renault, as they involve either the introduction of competitive EV models, or the changing/elimination of very profitable but high emission luxury models: both Renault and FCA changed these averages by less than 1% from 2016 to 2017.

The CO₂ fines are per unit, so if the Fiat pool gets larger by Renault joining, it brings in, on average, millions of units per year that have 15 g/km CO₂ emissions. This can only be offset by Tesla: the Renault ZOE is already included in Renault's 105 g/km average and Renault still has to pay billions in fines. If Renault could sell a lot more ZOE's they no doubt would - but they cannot, they cannot compete with Tesla head on.

So Renault joining the Fiat pool should increase Tesla's payout ceiling by at least 50%, IMHO. (@generalenthu, @Doggydogworld and @ReflexFunds might be able to offer much more accurate estimates.)

 

[Fact Checking]

Is the conversion price protected for share dilution? Or will it always be set at $310?

AFAIK it stays constant and is diluted by regular stock dilution from stock comp and equity raise, but adjusted for bigger events like mergers.

 

[peopleweb]

tesla china

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I tried my friends BMW 335i... it’s fast but not quick. Not nearly as fun. He also said Tesla was in a great spot and will only continue due to mindshare.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon justifying Starlink to the astronomers community on Twitter. Reminded me of:

 

[izemize]

tesla china

Can you translate it? What kind of platform is this?

 

[Fact Checking]

Source: various statements by Elon and the Shanghai municipal planning documents that were referenced in one of the Chinese sources that were quoted here months ago, which mentioned the 30k/week figure.

Can you or anybody else share the link to that?

Tried to find my source but failed - only found this self-reference from January:

Remember: they are not 'waiting for cash flow' in China, it's local debt financed. The Shanghai Gigafactory project has already been incredibly accelerated, all the permits issued already, the project is connected to the electric grid, etc.: and that they expect to make 3k Model 3's per week at the end of this year (not end of next year as originally planned, not in 2 years like GM or in 3 years like Ford) is amazingly fast for a car factory that implements the full range of manufacturing steps like Fremont: stamping, body shop, paint shop, plastic shop, general assembly.

They also plan scaling it up to 30,000 cars/week capacity, which will be ... amazing, and China is actually large enough to absorb that supply.

The source was either 'vincent' on Twitter (reliable China source), or the guy who is doing the GF3 drone videos - quoting Shanghai government permits/documents that outlined the planned full capacity of GF3. I also have his vague memory that Elon also mentioned either the 1.5m/year or 30k/week figure in one of the interviews or speeches he gave in China.

Sorry, no better sourcing than that.

But acreage is an independent metric as well: GF3's land size is 9 million sqft, phase 1 is a 5 million sqft multi-level building on 2 million sqft. That is roughly the current size of Fremont which is ~5.3 million sqft.

So ~7k/week capacity for Shanghai might be conservative, as the layout of the factory will certainly be more optimal than Fremont with 10 years of Tesla manufacturing history. Maybe it includes cell (or pack) manufacturing space as well.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

From Tesla China
蓄势，待发
Literally means
“Accumulating momentum, waiting to be released”

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Tried to find but failed - only found this self-reference from January:



The source was either 'vincent' on Twitter (reliable China source), or the guy who is doing the GF3 drone videos - quoting Shanghai government permits/documents that outlined the planned full capacity of GF3. I also have his vague memory that Elon also mentioned either the 1.5m/year or 30k/week figure in one of the interviews or speeches he gave in China.

Sorry, no better sourcing than that.

But acreage is an independent metric as well: GF1 is 2 million sqft, while GF3's land size is 9 million sqft, more than 4 times as large. Fremont is ~5 million sqft but not utilized optimally due to the historic path.

Sorry I have to pour some cold water on this “30k per week at Giga 3” idea. I watch Giga 3 pretty closely but have never heard of anything about that 1.5 million per year number. The official figure is 500K per year.

“
上海超级工厂将为中国市场生产 Model 3 电动车和未来的新车型。工厂建成后，计划在初始阶段每周生产约3,000辆 Model 3 电动车，在完全投入运营后年产量将攀升至500,000辆纯电动整车（注：这一计划受包括监管部门审批以及供应链情况等当地因素的影响）。
”

I’m sure there will be other improvements in the future, but we’ll have to wait for official confirmation.

 

[peopleweb]

Tesla China will release certain events on May 31

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Can you translate it? What kind of platform is this?

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

From Tesla China
蓄势，待发
Literally means
“Accumulating momentum, waiting to be released”



The platform is WeChat, you know, it’s China.

 

[Tslynk67]

Norway's EV market is a bit misleading, their policy heavily favor EV (which is great). I wouldn't be surprised if 90% of their vehicle demand switch to EV soon.

However, as EVs continue to improve and reduce cost, ICE vehicles cost go up due to reduced scale and lower resale value, we might see the same Norway phenomenon everywhere in the future.

Norway's policy don't favour EV's, rather they apply taxes according to pollution produced, hence ICE are punished properly as they should be everywhere

 

[sixela]

If Renault could sell a lot more ZOE's they no doubt would - but they cannot, they cannot compete with Tesla head on.

They don't really compete in the same market. Give the Zoe a lot more range (and a better priced battery) and it might compete with Tesla. The 41kW battery version is quite expensive, and even that really doesn't have the range it should when driving on the motorway.

The future 60kW version will likely fare better, but it's got nowhere the potential to replace long-range drive ICEs that the Model 3 LR has (if I had range anxiety I would rather have even an SR+ Model 3). Plus it's really small compared to a Model 3 (granted, in cities that's also an advantage).

Having driven one it's fun, though. If we needed a second car I'd certainly consider it (and even a staunchly German company like BASF has a small fleet for people to commute between the humongous BASF site's buildings).

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Tesla China will release certain events on May 31

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

From Tesla China
蓄势，待发
Literally means
“Accumulating momentum, waiting to be released”

The platform is WeChat, you know, it’s China.

Another poster T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

From Tesla China
蓄势，待发
Literally means
“Accumulating momentum, waiting to be released”



The platform is WeChat, you know, it’s China.

My mom said it means get prepared... it’s going to explode

 

[Mike Smith]

tesla china

It says:

'Ready to go

2019.05.01

Stay tuned'

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

My mom said it means get prepared... it’s going to explode

I’m sure I am better at translating English from Chinese haha