Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DaveT]

Source: various statements by Elon and the Shanghai municipal planning documents that were referenced in one of the Chinese sources that were quoted here months ago, which mentioned the 30k/week figure.

Can you or anybody else share the link to that?

 

[copyhacker]

I've noticed similar issues but I suspect the cameras are fine. Seems to be a write/software issue on the Car/PC side, respectively. My files appear to be corrupted on Mac, but not so on PC. Also, some videos play poorly (entire regions covered in green blocks) during first playback but are fine on second or third playback.

We have lots of software engineers in this thread that can probably comment better than I. But I wouldn't pin this on your cameras...

Glad this came up. I noticed it myself just last night and wondered if I should have the SC check it out. Also the left repeater.

 

[Ratanpara]

Europe EV Sales: Renault Zoe Wins In December, Nissan LEAF Takes 2018 Title | CleanTechnica
Looks like ZOE sold around 40,000 last year and is on the increase, say 50,000 in 2020. That will be worth 100,000 cars in 2020 due to Supercredits. Not bad. Also looks like Renault sold about 1,000,000 cars in Europe in 2018, but that has been up and down, so let’s leave that the same for 2020. FCA about the same.
Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles European sales figures
Super busy for the next couple of days, but I’ll try to fire up the model and see what all this means.

Edit:

Here's an interesting graphic. It shows without pooling, Renault and FCA are in almost the same situation, that is, they would be penalized the equivalent of their entire 2018 profits in 2021.
View attachment 412310
2021 CO2 targets would generate €34 billion euros in penalty payments within Europe - JATO

If this is the case now I could believe it why Fiat-chrysler agreed to Pay billions to Tesla, this will be good leavers to Tesla to reduce prices in Europe if demand generation required and also I wouldn’t doubt if Tesla would come to agreement with someone like VW group.

 

[Freder Reeve]

FWIW I just went to check local Florida inventory like normal and it changes location to Australia automatically after a couple seconds. Guessing they're updating site.

 

[bhtooefr]

Interesting that the performance is that much less efficient. I wonder if that is if they are both driven in the same exact manner.

Yes that is when they are driven on the EPA Test cycle.

The problem is the large rear motor.

Also worth noting that the (pre-Raven) 100D was 335 mi, the P100D was 315 mi - 94.0% of the range of the non-Performance.

The new Performance is 93.2% of the range of the new Long Range. (The less efficient rear motor has a bigger impact when you're starting from a higher efficiency.) So, it's in line with the difference before.

In a way I agree, but when thinking of manufacturing difficulty and complexity and value, it's the opposite. ICE OEMs outsource most everything except engines and transmissions since those components comprise the core of an ICE, are the most expensive, comprise the most guarded value, where the OEM focuses innovation, research, etc. While electric motors are important, battery systems comprise the bulk of the value and focus of innovation for an EV and are therefore a lot more valuable than a fuel tank or the fuel equivalent of the ICE. In this sense, I would argue the battery system is not a fuel tank, but equal to an ICE engine. The EV motor may be on par with a transmission.

My own thought is that the filler neck/fuel tank/fuel pump/engine/transmission system is analogous to the charger/battery/inverters/motors/reduction gears system, but where to divide the line has a lot of questions.

The fuel tank stores chemical energy for the engine to oxidize and convert to mechanical energy, and the transmission matches the speed and torque output of the engine to the vehicle's speed and torque demands.

The battery stores chemical energy and oxidizes the anode to create electrical energy, the inverter matches the electrical energy to the motor's speed and current demands, and the motor converts electrical energy to mechanical energy (which the reduction gear further matches to the vehicle's speed and torque demands, although typically only in one ratio).

So, it doesn't cleanly split, although treating the battery+inverter+motor as roughly analogous to the fuel tank+fuel pump+engine makes sense to me.

 

[mrmage]

Wow ! Am I correct then, one is earning roughly 4% interest per year along with a free call option, good for 5 years with a strike price around $310 ! Hard to beat for risk / reward.

Yes, that's why I really like these. I have leaps and TSLA too, but unlike options, convertibles have no time pressure and they pay back face value in all but the absolutely worst case. They also drop less during down cycles. E.g. since I bought mine, TLSA dropped 25% while the bonds dropped 13%. In theory, I could sell a portion of the bonds, and buy equities at a lower entry point. Otoh if TSLA had gone up, I'd participate in the upside through the conversion assuming it cracked 310 in 5 years.

Another way to look the convertible bonds at $90 is they pay 2.2%, with an effectively strike of $280, because it costs $90 to get $100 face value applied to the conversion.

 

[lascavarian]

Re: Consumer Reports - Comments on Autopilot

So I have been considering this report by Jake related to CR considering AP to be like an inexperienced driver - perhaps young. I reviewed all the FSD HW presentation done by Pete Bannon.

It is important to listen to the comments/criticism from CR. I think I agree to some extent as to the observation but not the conclusion.

Yes, there are times that AP (2.5 for me) has that quality of control that seems unsure and can be uncomfortable. It is silent, I can't tell where it's attention is and I cannot directly interact without moving the wheel or taking control. This is uncomfortable and not the way it would be with an inexperienced human driver.

I think Jake feels uncomfortable with the veiled nature of the driving decisions and feels uncomfortable. AP does not feel discomfort or the need to explain itself. We humans make assumptions and convert that into conclusions often on not much more than feelings. Tesla is publishing data. The data seems to take a back seat to the feelings but the data, in my book, is the important part.

The reality is that real inexperienced drivers are on the road daily making mistakes and learning as they go in both fair and poor weather. There are people of various capacities driving daily. AP is not that much different other than it is a bit occult as to the internal bits.

So what I am seeing is that AP is getting better at both driving and also at communicating with humans. The interface is improving with a bit more feedback as can be seen in the red color now used on the lane lines, vibrations, tones etc to clue the driver as to what is perceived. Yes, AP knows there is a vehicle in the blind spot. Good stuff and part of development. AP is having to drive the vehicle as well as manage the occupant experience.

There is a good question as to whether it is desirable for AP to drive in a manner that makes humans comfortable or whether AP should be turned to highly prioritize safety. These two goals may be mutually exclusive if resources are constrained. I suspect in a few months the new FSD HW and tuned up SW will come closer to satisfying both goals.

And there is the possibility that AP simply drives differently with 8 continuous vision points than a human does with 2.

 

[wipster]

The competition has dealers located everywhere in all 50 states that people are comfortable purchasing cars from and are conveniently located for purchase and service, and have salesmen ready to tell whatever lie is needed to make a sale. Dealers add to the cost structure but otherwise they are a big advantage. And even with the Y and the expensive pick-up, there will be substantial holes in Tesla's product line. And what about the warranty and where will people get service after Tesla fails; and repairs take forever because parts aren't available; and what's wrong with you that you that you have children and you would consider buying a car that explodes into flames? All BS but many people believe it. And there is the embarrassment of driving a car that is a failure per the media barrage that people get. Ford couldn't turn the Edsel around for this reason, even though they fixed the styling for Year Two [1959].

Tesla makes the best EV's, and it will take years and lots of money for other manufacturers to develop the capacity to make EV's that are as good at a comparable manufacturing cost, and Tesla will keep improving its vehicles and further cutting costs, but there are also other parts of the marketplace picture.

The dealers are going to take a lot of education and encouragement to sell BEV's. Not saying it won't eventually happen, but it's going to take several years. I believe they will fight it tooth and nail. Tesla needs to get sales and service straightened out as well, especially service, but I believe that will happen more rapidly.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Seems foolish not to be buying a ton of TSLA right now, but I’m probably overexposed as is. I know I’m going to be looking back at this sp with much regret. Maybe I need to start liquidating other assets and buy more TSLA.

 

[mrmage]

Re: Consumer Reports - Comments on Autopilot

So I have been considering this report by Jake related to CR considering AP to be like an inexperienced driver - perhaps young. I reviewed all the FSD HW presentation done by Pete Bannon.

It is important to listen to the comments/criticism from CR. I think I agree to some extent as to the observation but not the conclusion.

Yes, there are times that AP (2.5 for me) has that quality of control that seems unsure and can be uncomfortable. It is silent, I can't tell where it's attention is and I cannot directly interact without moving the wheel or taking control. This is uncomfortable and not the way it would be with an inexperienced human driver.

I think Jake feels uncomfortable with the veiled nature of the driving decisions and feels uncomfortable. AP does not feel discomfort or the need to explain itself. We humans make assumptions and convert that into conclusions often on not much more than feelings. Tesla is publishing data. The data seems to take a back seat to the feelings but the data, in my book, is the important part.

The reality is that real inexperienced drivers are on the road daily making mistakes and learning as they go in both fair and poor weather. There are people of various capacities driving daily. AP is not that much different other than it is a bit occult as to the internal bits.

So what I am seeing is that AP is getting better at both driving and also at communicating with humans. The interface is improving with a bit more feedback as can be seen in the red color now used on the lane lines, vibrations, tones etc to clue the driver as to what is perceived. Yes, AP knows there is a vehicle in the blind spot. Good stuff and part of development. AP is having to drive the vehicle as well as manage the occupant experience.

There is a good question as to whether it is desirable for AP to drive in a manner that makes humans comfortable or whether AP should be turned to highly prioritize safety. These two goals may be mutually exclusive if resources are constrained. I suspect in a few months the new FSD HW and tuned up SW will come closer to satisfying both goals.

And there is the possibility that AP simply drives differently with 8 continuous vision points than a human does with 2.

I'm in the minority, but I'm positive that safety and passenger experience are opposing goals.

For example, if the car drives more slowly at the speed limit, it's likely to be safer. Ditto if it waits longer for an opening.

Otoh, passengers don't want cars driving at the speed limit or that wait too long at a turn. Ironically, I think people will also require fsd to be orders safer than humans before they'll ride with it.

For these reasons I believe the uses for fsd are different than what most think and will take longer than expected.

 

[mrmage]

Anyone look at the insider sales? Is this typical or a sign the insiders have no faith? Musk had the only buys all the reds are sells.

TSLA Insider Trading - Tesla Inc. - Form 4 SEC Filings

Generally, insiders get stock options that they can exercise. There's no reason for them to buy shares. The shares they're selling have been exercised at a fraction of the price paid.

 

[EVNow]

Ironically, I think people will also require fsd to be orders safer than humans before they'll ride with it.

Depends.

People don't really know how safe they are - and have no way to know how safe a particular FSD is. They will have to just trust the numbers being put out by the companies (or regulators). For eg. if regulators (or "media") say average crash rate is 4.2/Million Miles - but a particular FSD only crashes 2.1/Million Miles i.e. it is twice as safe as ab average person will they feel safe and ride it ?

Again, like so many other new technologies, there will be people who will take the dive earlier than others and then the last 10% will come when they have no choice. There is no one size fits all here.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I would much rather ride in a well developed autonomous Tesla than some random Uber driver. Is that even really a consideration? Obviously we're not there yet, but Tesla will be first to get there when we do. Even if it takes another 20 years.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

what happened to this guy?

Greg Wester (@gwestr) | Twitter

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Yes, I found this claim to be dubious myself. GF1/Sparks actually has NO gas pipeline running to the site, as Tesla made the decision early in the design phase to go 100% electric for all energy needs. I can't see Tesla reversing that decision for GF3.

GF1/Sparks only makes the battery cells and packs, while GF3 is supposed to also build the cars. Would Fremont use NatGas in their production process? So that's not sufficient grounds to consider the source unreliable. From what I've seen of the video, there's no reason to dispute it, since it's not pie-in-the-sky in their project schedule.

 

[Navin]

what happened to this guy?

Greg Wester (@gwestr) | Twitter

Looks likes he got radicalized by social media, stock drop and likely TSLAQ

 

[SPadival]

Anyone look at the insider sales? Is this typical or a sign the insiders have no faith? Musk had the only buys all the reds are sells.

TSLA Insider Trading - Tesla Inc. - Form 4 SEC Filings

I know that you are a concern troll. However, note that these “insiders” have valid reasons to sell:

• JB Straubel has a charity organisation and a battery recycling co outside of Tesla
• Same for Kimbal, who has a farm & restaurant business
• Directors Brad Buss, Antonio Gracias, Stephen Jurvetson, and Linda Johnson Rice are stepping down

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Looks likes he got radicalized by social media, stock drop and likely TSLAQ

Kind of a big change.

He seemed to have deleted most of his tweets.

 

[Krugerrand]

Anecdata. His good experience is exactly as persuasive as that guy who had his M3 try to merge with a semi trailer.
My guess is that in most cases, though, he’s right: you are pretty safe when using nav-on-autopilot. Maybe even safer than most drivers would be without it. But it’s probably also true that the edge cases just might kill you.
Robin

I don’t actually have to guess since I use NOA all the time and it works exactly as seen in the video. Exactly.

 

[Fact Checking]

E.g. since I bought mine, TLSA dropped 25% while the bonds dropped 13%. In theory, I could sell a portion of the bonds, and buy equities at a lower entry point.

Also note that:

• The stock-convertible bonds got sold at very low interest rates with an option premium included, worth several tens of dollars per share equivalent. Most convertible bonds got issued at high share prices, plus theta (time) value of the options is dropping as well as their maturity is getting nearer - so it is this option value that changes the pricing of convertible bonds as TSLA gyrates up and down - not solvency concerns.
  
• The bonds have only very little liquidity: buying and holding until expiry is the obvious strategy, anyone who sells these bonds now is under duress for one reason or another and must pay the price. This illiquidity and buyer's market property adds another couple of percentage points to the spread.