Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Wooloomooloo]

OT, I find that annoying in general. The worst is having an argument with somebody that needs to spend the effort to click disagree with every single post you make.

Well there's the funny thing - he and I were not arguing, he was just going through this thread clicking disagree so I reciprocated with a little Venezuelan inflation.

The practice of voting comments down without contributing to the conversation is what's annoying. Retaliation is just immature (guilty m'laud, I was in line for my lunch and didn't have anything better to do).

 

[Maitri982]

RMB 377k = $54k
RMB 328k = $47k

So, not exactly cheap compared to US prices.

May be I shouldn't assume the ASP will go down when GF3 comes online !

I was in Shanghai for an extended period this year, lower prices would not serve Tesla well. There is tremendous wealth there and they will pay for premium products...and that's just Shanghai. Lower your price and they will assume you are "cheaper". Gucci, Coach, Cartier, all over the place and all over the people trying to one up each other.

Many chinese people have disposable money now and that's a change that happened quickly, so they are frankly a little less well adjusted to what that means than countries that have been in the modern world for hundreds and hundreds of years. china was third world country a mere 30 years ago. Not that there aren't people in modern countries who flaunt wealth to show they are superior, but this mindset is very pervasive at least in Shanghai, which BTW has like 20 million people. So lets hope Tesla gets associated with that type of status there and they will sell all they can make and then some and at a very profitable price.

 

[EVNow]

Not that there aren't people in modern countries who flaunt wealth to show they are superior, but this mindset is very pervasive at least in Shanghai, which BTW has like 20 million people.

This is a pretty common difference everywhere between old money & new money.

 

[KSilver2000]

I was in Shanghai for an extended period this year, lower prices would not serve Tesla well. There is tremendous wealth there and they will pay for premium products...and that's just Shanghai. Lower your price and they will assume you are "cheaper". Gucci, Coach, Cartier, all over the place and all over the people trying to one up each other.

Perception is one thing. Leaving profits on the table is an even bigger thing. It’s crazy to think to price it low when demand is high.

Tesla already got hammered in stock price just about a week ago when they announced price cuts to the model S/X.

Edit: spelling

 

[Singuy]

I was in Shanghai for an extended period this year, lower prices would not serve Tesla well. There is tremendous wealth there and they will pay for premium products...and that's just Shanghai. Lower your price and they will assume you are "cheaper". Gucci, Coach, Cartier, all over the place and all over the people trying to one up each other.

Many chinese people have disposable money now and that's a change that happened quickly, so they are frankly a little less well adjusted to what that means than countries that have been in the modern world for hundreds and hundreds of years. china was third world country a mere 30 years ago. Not that there aren't people in modern countries who flaunt wealth to show they are superior, but this mindset is very pervasive at least in Shanghai, which BTW has like 20 million people. So lets hope Tesla gets associated with that type of status there and they will sell all they can make and then some and at a very profitable price.

Although I agree with you, the Tariff was once 45% and Elon said their orders fell off a cliff so it's not always about the most expensive cars win.

 

[RobStark]

So a permanent oil glut holding down oil prices? Sure seems counter-intuitive. I recall the cartel capping production in the past, and if they don’t limit production either by agreement or voluntarily, the price should drop precipitously, but eventually they have to lower production or go bankrupt. Maybe they lower production just enough to keep prices just high enough to stay solvent, but if governments keep mandating EVs, the ability to boost demand by lowering prices will be increasingly limited.

Not debating, just thinking aloud that a permanent downward shift in oil demand seems unlikely to create permanently lower oil prices, but the transition indeed might not be smooth. A temporary big drop could throw a life preserver to some ICE manufacturers, especially in the US where energy policy is very friendly to oil. So maybe a temporary bounce of ICE sales based on gasoline price drops, in middle-America around 2022-2023?

A glut in supplies means downward pressure on prices.

We now have Russia pumping 10M plus barrels per day plus US pumping 12M barrels a day. Qatar is leaving OPEC. Saudi Arabia and Iran are going from frenemies to just plain enemies.

OPEC doesn't have the power it once did to increase prices.

Collapsing demand won't permanently lower prices, once gasoline becomes a novelty item (relatively speaking), but it may lower prices for a few years. Which led to the initial speculation that a cheap used ICEv with cheap gas might be cheap to drive for a while. But not forever.

Then again as oil/gasoline prices collapse governments may increase gasoline/diesel taxes.

 

[mrmage]

Just an FYI. I did some further research. The bonds are available through TD but NOT online. You have to call the 'Fixed Income Desk'. The cuspid number came right up for the rep when I gave it to him and he said 'How much to you want to buy?'

That's good to know. I wonder if the prices are better on TD when placed by a real person. When placing on etrade online, my cost is usually a little higher than other recent orders.

 

[FS_FRA]

Do we remember that Tesla subsidizes like 2K € of Germany EV credit?

I believe this lowers margin significantly for Germany and waters it down for the overall deliveries.

I believe that means less Germany deliveries is better for the margin. So, don't quite agree with "key" sentiment.

The subsidy is €5K ($5.6K) Shared between state and auto company.

This applies to cars below a specific cost only, so MS/X don’t apply, as it is capped at €60K ($67K) purchase price.

 

[Fred42]

Y

Lol, "be greedy when others are fearful", but what to do when others are crazy?

Buy a Tesla.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Both name and description argue against it being active.

Please get with the program. This is Tesla. Overengineering the hardware is what they do. Then they can magically improve the car any time they like with just a software update. I'm sure you're right that this is just an adaptive suspension. For now.

 

[Boomer19]

this is getting tiring. it goes down every day but we still sit here in this same range. it’s basically psychological warfare at this point.

everything about it. the media attacks, the price action...
they’re trying to make it so there’s no point in wanting the products or the stock, because neither is worth the drama.

 

[Singuy]

this is getting tiring. it goes down every day but we still sit here in this same range. it’s basically psychological warfare at this point.

everything about it. the media attacks, the price action...
they’re trying to make it so there’s no point in wanting the products or the stock, because neither is worth the drama.

I second that(about the stock..the product is great). Having to read and then decode FUD daily, then becomes frustrated that some of the FUD tanks the stock. The drama is high and I'm not even sure if it's worth the drama like you said.

The roaster can't come soon enough. People like shiny new things. Roaster 2.0 with rocket boosters will be the talk of the town for months and get Tesla out of this *sugar* cycle.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

this is getting tiring. it goes down every day but we still sit here in this same range. it’s basically psychological warfare at this point.

When did it last close below $190? Nov 2016?

 

[M3Rider]

The subsidy is €5K ($5.6K) Shared between state and auto company.

This applies to cars below a specific cost only, so MS/X don’t apply, as it is capped at €60K ($67K) purchase price.

Yeah, I think that'd eat a big chunk of margin out of SR+.

 

[Boomer19]

When did it last close below $190? Nov 2016?

i think so

 

[anthonyj]

Ark purchases more TSLA

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is starting to gain traction in Latin/Southern Europe.

Detailed commentary in link.

EV Sales: Portugal April 2019

 

[EVNow]

Closes at 188.70.

On 12/13/2018 SP hit a high of 377.44 and closed at 376.79.

So, 50% down from the high and ~50% from the close on 12/13.

ps : In 2016 December SP started around 180 and went to 216. This was the period SP closed below 190 last time - 12/06/16, to be exact.

 

[Uptownman]

Maybe this can cheer you folks up. Since your investment research isn't as robust as TSLAQ I'll provide you with my latest report fwiw..
*not investment advice*
TOM Collins on Twitter

 

[ZeApelido]

I had a dream that TSLA went down to $15, and I was a nervous wreck frantically trying to transfer funds / wire IRA rollovers to buy before it went back up.

I barely ever remember dreams.

I think I need help.

P.S. that help would be a stock price above $300