Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dww12]

Anybody know Mackenzie Bezos? I think I know how she could/should spend a few billion and get some real satisfaction.

MacKenzie Bezos to give half of her $36 billion fortune to charity

 

[Pras]

I agree with @bdy0627 : EM has been pumping. It use to work really well but his credibility is shot (self inflicted mostly) until they produce and deliver. Until then both bear and bull comments (including mine) are just noise.

Elon has been off but saying pumping is too much. One bad quarter can’t make Elon suddenly this bad. Pumping is different than being aggressive. All the products promised have arrived and things have played out fine. Take the core three products, s x and 3, all fantastic leading their segments and giving equivalent ICE cars run for their money.

The cash flow and every quarter profit comment was something you can accuse him of pumping. But all ceos make positive aspirational comments.

Now the biggest pump you can accuse is FSD. The autonomy day proved that while timing may be off, they are not sitting and pumping out fake news.

Regarding automation in factory, while he compromised to using part human labor, the Tesla GA has turned into an amazing automated factory.

Solar roof is delayed and mostly because of the lack of investment and conviction in the product, compared to cars.

So tell me what else was he pumping? The worst he did was the useless tweets, but that’s not pumping.

 

[Pras]

Only 2 points I would make would be to back down a little on deliveries. While they could hit 90k+, I would say 85k is probably more realistic to expect. As to ASP, with all of the SR+ we are seeing, I would guess that will lower the ASP. Why do you think it wouldn't be lower than Q1?

Look at the TMC model 3 tracker. The mix have remained fairly stable. Agree that SR will be more but Tesla can still maintain the higher asp. In most northeast US, buyers prefer awd, if one can afford.

Easier to guess conservatively, given Q1 debacle. I still think 91k is doable, if there is no production hiccup.

 

[sparcs]

The gross profit per kWh is higher on the LR model. This theory doesn’t make sense unless Tesla prefers unit volume over profitability.

Then there wouldn't be any production growth. Production and delivery numbers seem to be mostly what matters to Wall Street.

The gross profit is higher on LR RWD too, but they don't sell that in the USA anymore. All in favor of SR due to battery constraints.

GF3 might free up some production at Fremont for those better margin vehicles. IMO, they should bring back LR RWD after GF3 gets brought online.

 

[SPadival]

Thanks. His response was pretty simple, but all that I think was needed (made me happy and indicates that my* super complicated assessment was accurate ): "Yup"

Elon Musk on Twitter

*I should say "our" — referenced at least one person here.

At least you did not get his infamous “Ok” tweet response.

I have been listening to Ashlee Vance bio audio book again and he recounts a similar response when a SpaceX employee sent Elon an email about a complicated actuator that he had been working on for 9 months. Within minutes, Elon sent a reply with just “Ok” lolol .

Another observation after listening - nothing has changed after all these years:

• Elon was/is optimistic with his timelines (and he provides a reasonable explanation on why),
• “competition is coming/Tesla is going BK” FUD from Jalopnik and the rest of the media.

 

[Krugerrand]

You're kidding? That sentence doesn't mean there is a chance they will go bust in the next few months, my inference is that it means very important decisions (that Tesla needs to make), manufacturing and delivery as well as macro economic factors in the near term, will have an outsized effect on Tesla in the long term.

I really do get a sense of dread whenever TSLA watchers are utterly dismissive of any caution or outline of the challenges the company faces. It undermines anything else you express.

Wow on the interpretation skills of the written word.

They said something akin to, ‘We’ll be amputating that foot of yours, if you don’t get your blood sugar under control.’

And you read, ‘I need to cut my cola and chocolate intake by one percent. On Wednesdays.’

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Tesla China is on fire!

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

Keep up the hype! (link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/S_wwdgQZDQdozbuuJrOYIQ)
The last sentence "2019年5月31日 中国制造 Model 3 即将开启预订 期待相遇"
"Pre-order opens on 2019.05.31 for Model 3 manufactured in China. Look forward to meeting you."

 

[jhm]

I will enter a GTC order at 176

Stand strong!

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Tesla China is on fire!

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

Keep up the hype! (link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/S_wwdgQZDQdozbuuJrOYIQ)
The last sentence "2019年5月31日 中国制造 Model 3 即将开启预订 期待相遇"
"Pre-order opens on 2019.05.31 for Model 3 manufactured in China. Look forward to meeting you."


View attachment 413135

Also a shot of Giga 3

 

[Solar Aussie]

Meh. I relish people telling me I’m wrong about something I know in my gut is right because the day always comes when I get to say the most satisfying words in the English language, ‘I told you so.’

Just ignore them. Don’t engage on the topic. Let them think you’re an idiot. You won’t care down the road but they will when you cash in large from TSLA. Unless of course you have no conviction about Tesla, where they are headed, and what they will accomplish. In that case get out, lick your wounds, swallow your pride, and tell them you’re grateful for their concern and support in your time of need.

Got exactly the same with Apple (friends and relatives saying Sell!!!) when they dipped really badly in October 2000. Same situation with bears and media so against them. We as owners on TMC know how good the product is. The challenge Elon Musk had when 500k reservations were registered in the first week after Model 3 was showcased and his Master plan for affordable EV - a philosophical guidance. So much is going to plan plus some new initiatives of robotaxis to reduce cost of ownership, worldwide broadband internet via Starlink, ev only fast tunnels via the Boring Co with all assist Tesla futures. So keeping with the shares and buying more in this extreme dip is the way to go

BTW there is some bragging in Seeking Alpha that bears and shorts are registered with TMC so we need to be on our guard for negative inputs here too. No doubt they are not commenting under the same handles as in Seeking Alpha and Twitter TLSAQ

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am going through this emotional stress as most of you are with the recent SP movement... just doesn’t make sense.

So what am I missing?

There was an aphorism during the Great Depression era, after the Crash of '29:

'Watch out for the Hobo trying to steal a ride in a railroad car. But beware of the College Man, he will try to steal the railroad.'​

Jonas and his other college buddies are trying to steal this railroad. Simple as.

Your choice to believe their b.s. or not. Jus' sayin'.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

It looks like that truck had turn signal on to signal left merge, but did cross the solid line half a car length too soon before the dashed single white line starts.

Should AP actually slow down while approaching lane merges? The Model 3 was behind the truck(while turn signal flashing) when it sped past on the left. An attentive driver probably will slow down or move to left lane already.

As I posted earlier in this thread, NOA did in fact, just the other day, slow for two cars to merge thus avoiding blocking the two merging cars.

However, there’s a basic difference between the lanes in the video here and my situation: the two merging lanes in the video are quite long suggesting the car recognized that and knew there was no immediate need to get out of the way or yield, while in my situation the single merge lane was very short and ended abruptly.

It’s also technically the responsibility of the merging car to adjust speed accordingly and you know, merge. Defensive drivers will yield for merging cars. Aggressive drivers will accelerate to get in front of merging cars and jerks will drive like they’re the only ones on the road and happily sit in your blind spot while you try to merge.

 

[Thekiwi]

The gross profit per kWh is higher on the LR model. This theory doesn’t make sense unless Tesla prefers unit volume over profitability.

FYI - Elon actually did say on the Q4 earnings call that he prefers higher unit volume even if total overall profit was the same (ie lower margins per car). I thought that was a bit of an odd thing to say on an earnings call, but realised it made sense when you are trying to achieve scale fast.

 

[peopleweb]

The partial timestamp at the top says "AM", so could this be the first Model 3 shift's output at Fremont? If true then this would be a new production record I suspect.

joanne orencia (@JoanneOrencia) | Twitter

 

[peopleweb]

Did @peopleweb delete his post?

I sent the original source and deleted the original reply.

 

[Fact Checking]

joanne orencia (@JoanneOrencia) | Twitter

I see, looks like a troll account.

 

[Jovian]

Looking at this person's post history I can't believe it's real. I know she posted a picture of her badge with her name and picture on it, but I can't help thinking someone got that picture, or she's an ex employee.

I see, looks like a troll account.

 

[Thekiwi]

joanne orencia (@JoanneOrencia) | Twitter

A bit of a strange account - only seems to post things related to her work, and occasionally weed. Not sure if legit?

 

[peopleweb]

A bit of a strange account - only seems to post things related to her work, and occasionally weed. Not sure if legit?

I saw it today, and I don’t know if it’s true, the picture numbers look more interesting.

 

[sparcs]

A bit of a strange account - only seems to post things related to her work, and occasionally weed. Not sure if legit?

Seems like another case of Vicki Salvador. People who don't care they signed an NDA.

Interestingly, Fred is one of her followers.