Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

To be fair, the full report from MS gave $10 SP only 10% chance. It was the worst of the bear cases and not just a bear case. MS also gave the 600ish case 5%, but the press only focuses on the 10% case.

true. but then jonas’ investment call a day later took a huge dump all over the company and the stock. and then leaked within hours. all the focus was on the 10% and barely a word about the higher probability outcomes. it was a professionally orchestrated hit.

right out of the gate he was stating as fact
- demand is first domino
- no worse time to depend on china
- growth story to restructuring story (and repeated it)
- “nobody cares about the Y”

on and on

he knew exactly what he was doing

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Back in the Twentieth...
When it was Gas Station Time,
Did everyone just wait for the city, and the gasomobile’s builder,
...to build quick-refill gas stations?

 

[Matias]

This is a straw man argument. There is no conspiracy. The attacks on Tesla are relentless, in the open and easily verified, as they have been countless times on this and many other forums. They take the form of both particular types of trading, and the spreading of FUD by interested parties, which just so happens to be several trillion dollar industries.

Tesla is not the only stock that has come under this type of attack, just the latest and most favorite target. If you really expect us to believe that all stock movements are random and that no one knows anything...I will stop there and let people draw their own conclusions.

Yes, there are entities with malicious intent against Tesla but there’s no conspiracy.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

What! Now Freaking Fred even started to make announcement like “Model 3 demand is stagnating in the US”.

Where is the proof, just because it’s been on sale in the US for over a year?

We need to give this freaking guy 0 click.

 

[Boomer19]

What! Now Freaking Fred even started to make announcement like “Model 3 demand is stagnating in the US”.

Where is the proof, just because it’s been on sale in the US for over a year?

We need to give this freaking guy 0 click.

haven’t looked at that site in a while. it doesn’t add much value. hes no more knowledgeable than any of you here. so why bother?
he became childish sometime ago about referrals or something, i can’t quite remember, nor do i care. not that i don’t appreciate a person or group trying to do good by reporting on green tech etc, but once it became personal, then all bets are off. i don’t know his agenda anymore, so i can’t take that ‘source’ for anything more than a gossip/tabloid column

 

[pyromatter]

 

[carterm2]

$6,106 / Share or low side 597 /share in 2023

ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

 

[neroden]

EV Sales: Europe April 2019


Hard to believe neither Model S nor Model X breaches the 2100 sales threshold to be in the top 20, Model S with 2005 sales and Model X with 1858.

They were always physically too large for most of Europe. Look at the size of the other cars on this list. Only a couple are even close to the physical size of the S and X.

 

[copyhacker]

This is Prisoner's dilemma - Wikipedia

for participating banks it is best to betray the others, because it offers best expected value.

You believe more on investment banks than I, since you believe, that they would not betray others to gain more money for themselves.

In this setting prisoners dilemma is, that the one bank who betrays the others (i.e. buys cheap) gets all the money.

So there is no rationale not to betray

This is only true if the number of rounds of the game is known. For unlimited repetitions, collaboration becomes more advantageous since the players know each other’s history. Read the section on “The iterated prisoner's dilemma” for details.

 

[neroden]

Again, I understand and realize that this is highly non-intuitive from the viewpoint of western economies, democracies and monetary systems. Alternatively, instead of accepting my line of arguments, you could attempt to falsify my claim: in what way does "bad debt" on the balance sheet of Chinese state owned banks have a negative effect on the real economy? Just outline a single such channel of effect. I believe you won't be able to.

FYI, Fact Checking is 100% right about all of this.

 

[neroden]

Bad lending without consequence causes allocative inefficiency

Yeah, but that's already happened.

 

[GSP]

Failure to pay lawsuit against Tesla:

Tesla just got slammed with a new lawsuit from a supplier that alleges the automaker hasn't paid a $1.7 million bill

Per the article Tesla terminated its supply contract. They must have found a better source.

Sounds like the two companies disagree on what Tesla owes for its quick exit from their contract. These things probably take a while to sort out, and I am not surprised that a lawsuit is filed prior to settlement.

GSP

 

[NicoV]

Out of ignorance I ask, is this routine? Do Ford or GM have multiple lawsuits pending over bill payments like this? Or is this actually newsworthy?

I read partially through the docs. It’s not just about unpaid bills. It’s apparently a supplier of a part that has been redesigned or replaced by a different part. It seems like Tesla rejected the parts due to noncompliance, and then terminated the contract. It seems like Tesla thinks they don’t have to pay for the parts/termination of the contract, while the supplier thinks Tesla should pay for them.
So it’s not a ‘Tesla can’t pay it’s bills’ thing, but a dispute about allegedly noncompliant parts.

 

[Matias]

This is only true if the number of rounds of the game is known. For unlimited repetitions, collaboration becomes more advantageous since the players know each other’s history. Read the section on “The iterated prisoner's dilemma” for details.

That might be true, if the game is closed, i.e. new participants can’t join. But because anyone can participate in stock
market, that is not the case. There’s always possibility for a new player to join and betray others.

Anyone, who thinks that TSLA is undervalued, can buy.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

That might be true, if the game is closed, i.e. new participants can’t join. But because anyone can participate in stock
market, that is not the case. There’s always possibility for a new player to join and betray others.

Anyone, who thinks that TSLA is undervalued, can buy.

Exactly - it's like the summer sales.

 

[ggr]

This is only true if the number of rounds of the game is known. For unlimited repetitions, collaboration becomes more advantageous since the players know each other’s history. Read the section on “The iterated prisoner's dilemma” for details.

An important facet of the Prisoners' Dilemma is that the prisoners can't communicate with each other. You can bet that the investors get hints about what is going on with the other investors, even if they don't actually collude. So they can all hold tight until they all run for the exits together. And don't forget there are other players in the game besides the Tesla investors, who can be applying pressure for their own reasons, eg. media and big oil.

 

[dc_h]

Sounds

Have you visited or lived in San Francisco? Most places of work do not have garages. If there was a garage, definitely not enough for even half the employees (and many of those spots are taken by people commuting into the city). Most apartments aren’t the high rise type you may be thinking of with plentiful parking.

Sounds like a job for robo-taxi!

 

[Matias]

An important facet of the Prisoners' Dilemma is that the prisoners can't communicate with each other. You can bet that the investors get hints about what is going on with the other investors, even if they don't actually collude. So they can all hold tight until they all run for the exits together. And don't forget there are other players in the game besides the Tesla investors, who can be applying pressure for their own reasons, eg. media and big oil.

From one point that is correct, but you have to take into account, that there are vast number of greedy players. World is full of money looking for good investment. There’s no reason for this money not to buy TSLA, if they think that it is too cheap.

P.S. when stock price rises, I don’t see any one here complaining about pump and dump scheme,
which would be rational,
if we assume collaboration among big players.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Well, you're going to be a lot richer than I will be in a few years.

In a few years? He's obviously richer than me right now, haha. Over 100x the shares I have!

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Out of ignorance I ask, is this routine? Do Ford or GM have multiple lawsuits pending over bill payments like this? Or is this actually newsworthy?

It's newsworthy so long as people click on it. It's Tesla, people click on it, either to confirm their existing bias, or to express their rage at click-bait FUD. A click is a click.

To answer your question, vendors suing clients is not hugely commonplace - contractual disputes definitely are, arbitration is reasonably common, but litigation isn't. I used to manage Vendor Risk for a large company that had over 9,000 vendors/suppliers and I only remember one dispute going as far as litigation, and it was settled.