Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Welp, I'm holding 2400+ shares now after this latest dip. Looking forward to the next 5-10 years.

Well, you're going to be a lot richer than I will be in a few years.

 

[goinfraftw]

Well, you're going to be a lot richer than I will be in a few years.

As with any investment, we'll see how it pans out.

 

[powertoold]

It's possible that demand is stagnant right now (this quarter), but it will only get better over time, as electric charging infrastructure is expanded, and more people get their hands on Teslas.

Although based on Elon's emails, it seems we are more supply constrained. It seems we've been supply / logistically constrained for the last 2 quarters, yet wall street seems to think we're demand constrained.

 

[Nocturnal]

Have you visited or lived in San Francisco? Most places of work do not have garages. If there was a garage, definitely not enough for even half the employees (and many of those spots are taken by people commuting into the city). Most apartments aren’t the high rise type you may be thinking of with plentiful parking.

Yes, spent a good bit of time there. Never had my own car though, all taxis. So all the high rises don't have garages? Where do these people park?

Either way, that's just one city. Most of the nation is not san fransisco and most cities I've been to rely on parking structures rather than street parking.

To be fair, the full report from MS gave $10 SP only 10% chance. It was the worst of the bear cases and not just a bear case. MS also gave the 600ish case 5%, but the press only focuses on the 10% case.

Yeah but they knew exactly what they were doing. Putting that number out gave them attention and they knew that the headlines would be "$10 SP target"

 

[avoigt]

Q2: Supply & Demand is strong and its all about delivery now. “While our demand is strong, we have a lot of vehicle deliveries to catch up ... ” Musk said, he’ll hold calls to “understand what’s needed to accelerate” Tesla’s rate of deliveries.

 

[Alphacrux]

Got a call from Tesla solar asking if I wanted to put solar panels up (they had my contact info from my recent Raven order). He sounded disappointed when I told him I already had 9kw solar installed a few years ago (non Tesla).

 

[Matias]

You're right. I believe those big hedge funds and investment banks are honorable institutions.

That’s not the point. Point is that you believe that they could control each other’s actions. The problem with conspiracy theory is, that it can’t work if participants don’t work together and it requires that no one of the participants betray the others.

This is Prisoner's dilemma - Wikipedia

for participating banks it is best to betray the others, because it offers best expected value.

You believe more on investment banks than I, since you believe, that they would not betray others to gain more money for themselves.

In this setting prisoners dilemma is, that the one bank who betrays the others (i.e. buys cheap) gets all the money.

So there is no rationale not to betray

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That’s not the point. Point is that you believe that they could control each other’s actions. The problem with conspiracy theory is, that it can’t work if participants don’t work together and it requires that no one of the participants betray the others.

Not necessarily talking about the current situation but: That’s not entirely true. Would still work if they all merely are doing some other party’s bidding, with that entity handling the coordination. You’re assuming a partnership of equals, which need not be the case.

 

[KSilver2000]

Although based on Elon's emails, it seems we are more supply constrained. It seems we've been supply / logistically constrained for the last 2 quarters, yet wall street seems to think we're demand constrained.

Q2: Supply & Demand is strong and its all about delivery now.

So, is supply a constraint or not a constraint?

Did Panasonic (and Tesla) get their act together regarding cell supply? That was the main factor last quarter according to Tesla as to why production was low, and we haven’t heard much since whether that concern is relieved. If anything, Panasonic was reported just a few weeks ago saying they wouldn’t be able to supply enough to Tesla by next year.

 

[anon]

we haven’t heard much since whether that concern is relieved

There was a tweet from Musk a few weeks ago to say that cell production would not be a bottleneck in Q2. Of course, there are likely to have been other constraints or at least problems to work through on ramping up to 7k/week. The leaked email last week made it sound as though continuing to ramp production was the key focus. Now it sounds like Musk is more confident in that and focusing on deliveries.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So, is supply a constraint or not a constraint?

Did Panasonic (and Tesla) get their act together regarding cell supply? That was the main factor last quarter according to Tesla as to why production was low, and we haven’t heard much since whether that concern is relieved. If anything, Panasonic was reported just a few weeks ago saying they wouldn’t be able to supply enough to Tesla by next year.

As you can see from the two different people you quoted, it’s unclear and there’s disagreement. Could also be somewhere in between: that they’re able to produce more than they could previously, but still not enough to meet demand. Only Tesla really knows right now. Maybe insideevs will provide some small amount of clarity soon(at least in the US)

 

[mrmage]

I have a long term solution for you, but it requires two currently non-existent technologies:

1. Autonomous driving
2. Autonomous snake charging

If you have #1, there’s no need for #2 because so many options become available once cars can drive themselves where they need to be.

 

[Matias]

Not necessarily talking about the current situation but: That’s not entirely true. Would still work if they all merely are doing some other party’s bidding, with that entity handling the coordination. You’re assuming a partnership of equals, which need not be the case.

Yes, if there would be some immensely powerful entity, who could control all the banks, this would work.

But still those working for this immensely powerful entity would have incentive to betray this entity. But I don’t think that we need to pursue this path forward..

 

[MarcusMaximus]

If you have #1, there’s no need for #2 because so many options become available once cars can drive themselves where they need to be.

Presumably if you have #1, you would need either #2 or some alternate way for the car to be charged(wireless or some kind of contacts on the bottom, presumably). Don’t want to have to have a human always standing by to do so..

 

[Boomer19]

Regarding street parking etc.
#2 No home charging, can't she add one?

she’s in apt complex as well. no garage. parking lot or street parking. she’s inquiring with complex to see if they’ll add something.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I've found that living in liberal/moderate bubbles in red states is a pretty good situation.

Yes - Austin, TX and Moab, UT spring to mind.

 

[JRP3]

Failure to pay lawsuit against Tesla:

"LBA made numerous efforts to get Tesla to pay the amounts Tesla owed to LBA. LBA convened meetings, sent e-mails and letters, and initiated numerous telephone calls in an effort to get Tesla to pay what it owed, to answer any questions Tesla may have had, and to resolve any issues," the lawsuit, which was filed in California's Northern District, reads. "In addition, LBA demanded reasonable assurances of performance by Tesla."

Tesla just got slammed with a new lawsuit from a supplier that alleges the automaker hasn't paid a $1.7 million bill

 

[traxila]

Hindsight investment is always easy, but difficult to exploit without time machine.

People resort to conspiracy theories, because it helps them to control the uncertain reality. The truth is, that there is no conspiracy and no one knows anything. Stock price is random walk.

But if conspiracy theories help someone to sleep, I guess they are O.K. for them.

This is a straw man argument. There is no conspiracy. The attacks on Tesla are relentless, in the open and easily verified, as they have been countless times on this and many other forums. They take the form of both particular types of trading, and the spreading of FUD by interested parties, which just so happens to be several trillion dollar industries.

Tesla is not the only stock that has come under this type of attack, just the latest and most favorite target. If you really expect us to believe that all stock movements are random and that no one knows anything...I will stop there and let people draw their own conclusions.

 

[traxila]

Failure to pay lawsuit against Tesla:

Tesla just got slammed with a new lawsuit from a supplier that alleges the automaker hasn't paid a $1.7 million bill

Out of ignorance I ask, is this routine? Do Ford or GM have multiple lawsuits pending over bill payments like this? Or is this actually newsworthy?

 

[Krugerrand]

OK, we just disagree. I think good design has to be fault tolerant and bad design is “use as directed or screw you.”

What you meant to say is you think current NOA should be idiot proof.

And I’m saying some day it will be. Today is not that day so idiots need not apply, particularly when they are unable to follow the clearly defined terms of operation.

Ask Boeing if they wish they’d made their MCAS trim augmentation system fault tolerant and you will not hear “properly trained pilots will have no problem operating this jet safely.”
Though that is what they said, very briefly, after the first Max 8 went down.
Robin

Not the same.