Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

EU numbers are actually not that brilliant so far. We are looking at only 4000 or so total deliveries S/X/3 in May. S and X remain extremely weak with both around 500 cars each with no Raven cars available. Hopefully China is doing better. As last quarter everything will be decided in the final two weeks of the quarter.

Actually, the numbers so far for Europe and the US are not bad at all.

Obviously, Model 3 deliveries did not start until mid-February in Europe, so comparing January + February to April + May is not entirely fair, but regardless, that too was a factor in the disappointing Q1 delivery numbers. So right now it looks like Jan+Feb was 5300 cars in Europe, while April + May should come in at 8300-8500 - that`s up 60%.

For the US, Jan+Feb came in at 15.2k cars, while April+May ended up with 28.2k as per InsideEVs, which is almost as much as the entirety of Q1 was. This is an 86% QoQ increase so far. For the 2 older models, Model X got a 45% boost compared to Q1, while Model S is 37% higher. Admittedly, this may partially be because of some pre-Raven inventory being dumped (=lower ASP), but also, these numbers are pre-Raven, which should mean June would get a refresh boost.

So all that doesn`t look too bad.

Where I am cautious is suggesting these would to translate into similar % gains in June

Europe`s 17.7k March could be difficult to beat for June as I believe that number already stretched the delivery staff very thin. Also, we can only expect another 3-3.5 ships worth of deliveries in Europe to unfold in June - Nocc Oceanic arrived on 5/22, so maybe not all of those cars were delivered by 5/31 - so that`s the .5, while we have 3 more carriers set to arrive at Zeebrugge between now and 6/13. (With the trip taking 20-23 days, I don`t think any new shipments will depart SF for Europe this quarter, they`ll rather concentrate on production for NA). 3-3.5 ships should be 10-15k cars at the most, so I am not sure if Europe will break the 23k total Q1 record, at most t may repeat it.

The US should easily break the Q1 numbers though - April+May almost did as much as the full Q1, so depending on Raven delivery numbers/boost, we could see 18-20k+ higher numbers here. Repeating March alone would result in +15k, but Model 3 May was already 4k higher than February, so June should be significantly higher than March. As for S/X, even amidst the Q1 sales "Armageddon" they did show 4.5k for the last month, so with Raven in production, June should be a lot better for S/X as well. We`ll see exactly how much better.

China is a dark horse, of course, and the trade war, plus looming GF3 cheaper Model 3 may not have helped, but we do expect 7+ ships for AP in Q2 (6 China, 1 Japan + whatever goes to Australia and elsewhere), whereas Q1 had 8 shipments to China, so maybe that`s a draw?

All things considered, we could be looking at ~20k higher numbers than Q1, but we would need 27k to meet the lower guidance, so this could still be a miss. There are just too many unknowns.

 

[schonelucht]

Any ships that load up in the last month of the Q are a good sign, because it means the wave is being unwound. I wouldn't imagine this one has a load that is expected to be delivered in 25 days.

Incorrect. Now we have this 1 ship loading in June but in Q1, we had 3 ships loading at Pier 80 in March, all heading to China. Last one to load up only left March 10th and was still well in time to unload before the end quarter since sailing time is approx 15 days. The way it looks right now is that we will have less ships in transit for the last two weeks of the quarter with no sign if unwinding right now. On the contrary actually.

 

[dmckinstry]

..

and a long too.

But I bought back at 182.xx

Well, I wasted a share this a.m. After looking at the high/low for the past week, I decided to sell 10 shares and re-buy during the MMD. If I could repeat that a few times I could gradually increase my number of shares. Bad move. I sold 10 shares at $185.00, but had only enough cash to buy back 9 shares at $190.51. I'm never going to do that again, unless I'm "sure" we're in a long run down again.

 

[Todd Burch]

Incorrect. Now we have this 1 ship loading in June but in Q1, we had 3 ships loading at Pier 80 in March, all heading to China. Last one to load up only left March 10th and was still well in time to unload before the end quarter since sailing time is approx 15 days. The way it looks right now is that we will have less ships in transit for the last two weeks of the quarter with no sign if unwinding right now. On the contrary actually.

Roger, forgot about China. If it were heading to Europe, I would think it would be too late.

 

[schonelucht]

But whatever happens in June could shift this by 5k deliveries in both directions.

We had 10k in transit last quarter so that sets how much we can swing at the minimum in my mind. S and X in the Netherlands are permanently finished in my opinion, demand will never recover to previous levels even with Raven (though they will perk up a bit from here obviously). The tax situation makes a big difference and for many Dutch people the 3 is a better choice anyway.

 

[traxila]

I am so happy to see some green.

But I do not believe it is up and away from here. I would think 200 is going to be hard resistance now and we are fighting macros. Don't think macro situation clearing up anytime soon. Dips to 170 probably in the works again.

I do have a hard time seeing TSLA not beginning to rocket to new highs if China Giga hits it targets by the EOY.

Hopefully it all happens faster. Sure did on the way down, but that is how this works.

 

[StealthP3D]

Agree it's a pure mindgame. Let me explain my thinking -

I ordered the MX the very night of watching Autonomy day presentation live. My perception of Tesla completely changed that day. I see it as a computer company which makes cars.

Regarding financial, I had an option to go for lease (2.5% Annual) or do complete down payment. I chose the lease option and put the guaranteed residual value after 3 years in the stock. At the end of 3 years we will see how it goes.

Agree it may not be a financially wise decision - though I really hope that the company succeeds with its mission. Its too important to fail at this stage.

You might not have "bet the house" on Tesla but it sure sounds like you "bet the car". Which is OK as long as you can afford to lose it (the money or the car). But short of disastrous macro-economic conditions, I'm confident you will come out ahead.

 

[Dutchie]

I finally convinced one of my coworkers to purchase into TSLA, and he did so yesterday.

He only bought one stock though.

So, I guess it's something? Or maybe he's the cause of the turn? xD

If he sells now he can buy you coffee from the profit. Not bad..

 

[Zero CO2]

That's not true at all: Tesla has demonstrated significant willingness of customers who previously bought only $15k-$30 cars tops to shell out $40k+ for their dream Tesla car which car they love, love and love.

I.e. EVs as made by Tesla are expanding the revenue stream of the car market in similar ways smartphones were expanding the dumbphone market significantly.

Netflix on the other hand didn't expand the overall revenue stream but converted expensive, monopolized, obnoxiously tone deaf hard to use cable subscriptions infested with force pushed advertisements into a less expensive yet more convenient streaming service with no forced ads.

Netflix is in fact a net negative for content creators (they earn less), Netflix managed to attract top content creators by granting them unprecedented artistic freedom.

So your comparison couldn't be more inaccurate: Tesla expanding the EV market is an additional advantage over the Netflix story.

all this nexflix talk has me thinking i need to disconnect it ... just looked at my bill again up another $2.00 have not viewed in over a month spending all my time here which is a lot more fun ...

 

[StealthP3D]

It's actually very baffling as Elon's words are very rarely "accurate", very often full of ambiguity. I just don't understand how he can be like that while being a brilliant engineer. Engineering and science require accuracy in communication.

Inaccuracy and ambiguity have to be accepted when speaking of future things. So, you could say he's speaking very realistically. I love the fact that he calls it how he sees it and I think he has an uncanny ability to see how complex things will unfold in the future. That needs repeating. He has an uncanny ability to see how complex things will unfold in the future (this, and hard work, is responsible for the incredible successes he has had in multiple industries).

Now, if he could only align his visionary abilities to include the calendar it would be even more impressive!

 

[Swampgator]

Actually, the numbers so far for Europe and the US are not bad at all.

Obviously, Model 3 deliveries did not start until mid-February in Europe, so comparing January + February to April + May is not entirely fair, but regardless, that too was a factor in the disappointing Q1 delivery numbers. So right now it looks like Jan+Feb was 5300 cars in Europe, while April + May should come in at 8300-8500 - that`s up 60%.

For the US, Jan+Feb came in at 15.2k cars, while April+May ended up with 28.2k as per InsideEVs, which is almost as much as the entirety of Q1 was. This is an 86% QoQ increase so far. For the 2 older models, Model X got a 45% boost compared to Q1, while Model S is 37% higher. Admittedly, this may partially be because of some pre-Raven inventory being dumped (=lower ASP), but also, these numbers are pre-Raven, which should mean June would get a refresh boost.

So all that doesn`t look too bad.

Where I am cautious is suggesting these would to translate into similar % gains in June

Europe`s 17.7k March could be difficult to beat for June as I believe that number already stretched the delivery staff very thin. Also, we can only expect another 3-3.5 ships worth of deliveries in Europe to unfold in June - Nocc Oceanic arrived on 5/22, so maybe not all of those cars were delivered by 5/31 - so that`s the .5, while we have 3 more carriers set to arrive at Zeebrugge between now and 6/13. (With the trip taking 20-23 days, I don`t think any new shipments will depart SF for Europe this quarter, they`ll rather concentrate on production for NA). 3-3.5 ships should be 10-15k cars at the most, so I am not sure if Europe will break the 23k total Q1 record, at most t may repeat it.

The US should easily break the Q1 numbers though - April+May almost did as much as the full Q1, so depending on Raven delivery numbers/boost, we could see 18-20k+ higher numbers here. Repeating March alone would result in +15k, but Model 3 May was already 4k higher than February, so June should be significantly higher than March. As for S/X, even amidst the Q1 sales "Armageddon" they did show 4.5k for the last month, so with Raven in production, June should be a lot better for S/X as well. We`ll see exactly how much better.

China is a dark horse, of course, and the trade war, plus looming GF3 cheaper Model 3 may not have helped, but we do expect 7+ ships for AP in Q2 (6 China, 1 Japan + whatever goes to Australia and elsewhere), whereas Q1 had 8 shipments to China, so maybe that`s a draw?

All things considered, we could be looking at ~20k higher numbers than Q1, but we would need 27k to meet the lower guidance, so this could still be a miss. There are just too many unknowns.

You lost me here a bit.

Tesla will sell roughly 45,000 units in the US for Q2 based on current trends
If they sell 13K a month in Europe (likely) they reach another 40K for Q2 in europe.
They would only need 11K from AP to hit lower end of guidance.

 

[Fred42]

Speaking of logistics and the wave, the last(?) ship of the quarter in just now being moored at pier 80, the Grand Quest.

I think it was yesterday someone reported no cars at Pier 80. Was that wrong?

 

[Unpilot]

Something wants to run...

 

[aagosh]

You might not have "bet the house" on Tesla but it sure sounds like you "bet the car". Which is OK as long as you can afford to lose it (the money or the car). But short of disastrous macro-economic conditions, I'm confident you will come out ahead.

There hasn't been another instance in my life where I wanted a company to succeed so much. I could sleep at least with peace of mind that I did my part

 

[Dutchie]

Actually, the numbers so far for Europe and the US are not bad at all.

Obviously, Model 3 deliveries did not start until mid-February in Europe, so comparing January + February to April + May is not entirely fair, but regardless, that too was a factor in the disappointing Q1 delivery numbers. So right now it looks like Jan+Feb was 5300 cars in Europe, while April + May should come in at 8300-8500 - that`s up 60%.

For the US, Jan+Feb came in at 15.2k cars, while April+May ended up with 28.2k as per InsideEVs, which is almost as much as the entirety of Q1 was. This is an 86% QoQ increase so far. For the 2 older models, Model X got a 45% boost compared to Q1, while Model S is 37% higher. Admittedly, this may partially be because of some pre-Raven inventory being dumped (=lower ASP), but also, these numbers are pre-Raven, which should mean June would get a refresh boost.

So all that doesn`t look too bad.

Where I am cautious is suggesting these would to translate into similar % gains in June

Europe`s 17.7k March could be difficult to beat for June as I believe that number already stretched the delivery staff very thin. Also, we can only expect another 3-3.5 ships worth of deliveries in Europe to unfold in June - Nocc Oceanic arrived on 5/22, so maybe not all of those cars were delivered by 5/31 - so that`s the .5, while we have 3 more carriers set to arrive at Zeebrugge between now and 6/13. (With the trip taking 20-23 days, I don`t think any new shipments will depart SF for Europe this quarter, they`ll rather concentrate on production for NA). 3-3.5 ships should be 10-15k cars at the most, so I am not sure if Europe will break the 23k total Q1 record, at most t may repeat it.

The US should easily break the Q1 numbers though - April+May almost did as much as the full Q1, so depending on Raven delivery numbers/boost, we could see 18-20k+ higher numbers here. Repeating March alone would result in +15k, but Model 3 May was already 4k higher than February, so June should be significantly higher than March. As for S/X, even amidst the Q1 sales "Armageddon" they did show 4.5k for the last month, so with Raven in production, June should be a lot better for S/X as well. We`ll see exactly how much better.

China is a dark horse, of course, and the trade war, plus looming GF3 cheaper Model 3 may not have helped, but we do expect 7+ ships for AP in Q2 (6 China, 1 Japan + whatever goes to Australia and elsewhere), whereas Q1 had 8 shipments to China, so maybe that`s a draw?

All things considered, we could be looking at ~20k higher numbers than Q1, but we would need 27k to meet the lower guidance, so this could still be a miss. There are just too many unknowns.

I expect huge numbers from Canada, considering that only a Vancouver store sold about 800 units in a week!

 

[elasalle]

have some folks been permanently banned, or missing today?

 

[neroden]

I"m having a hard time with this Netflix comparison for 2 major reasons. The first is that Netflix was disrupting an industry that was entrenched and people hated... Cable Companies, who were slow to adapt and inefficient.

Car dealers & gasoline car manufacturers & gas stations. All entrenched, people hate at least 2 of the three, at least 2 of the 3 are slow to adapt and inefficient.

Netflix was cheaper and far more convenient, and if like me you were a cord-cutter (which I did in 2009) you were saving a ton of money too.

True of electric cars in general. Of Tesla in particular, they seem to be staying ahead of all the electric competitors.

But here's the major difference with Tesla: most people who subscribe to Netflix, also subscribe to other services - and Netflix simply retained its lead through a) a rapidly growing market and b) not really losing market share.

I know people who own a Tesla and a Bolt and a Leaf.

At some point when ICE cars are entirely gone -- 2030 -- it will be a zero sum game. But right now *it's not*. Every EV sale displaces an ICE sale.

This isn't a zero sum game - I have Hulu, CBS, Netflix, HBO and still occasionally rent from Apple, or use FuboTV for live sports. They can co-exist. Netflix stayed ahead of the pack by producing its own content, and avoiding being a simple utility of entertainment.

And I only have Netflix -- I'm not spending on half a dozen streaming services. At some point it becomes a zero-sum game as people's entertainment budget is maxed out.

Regardless of that, the one thing everyone knew for sure is that they didn't want to get streaming from their regular cable provider. The whole point was to escape them.

And the whole point is to escape gasmobiles...

Now in the car world, things are different in those key ways - market share is a zero sum game here, and it's likely the EV market size will grow more slowly than the EV market diversity.

This is sort of happening, but Tesla's growth is keeping up with the EV market growth. It's not a zero-sum game for EV sellers until ICEs are displaced, i.e. 2030.

That didn't happen in streaming. Also people don't necessarily hate current car manufacturers. Honda fans would love to see a Honda EV. Even the much maligned VW group has people who can't wait to get a VW EV. Personally I would love to see a VW Camper Van EV... if one came out, I'd almost certainly buy it.

That's a difference. They do hate current car dealers though.

So while I don't think Tesla is going to fail, I don't see the Netflix story as being relevant to explaining why they will succeed, just because there are parallels in the stock price.

I think the parallel is actually very close. Thanks for laying out the details which make it clear how close the parallel is.

 

[StealthP3D]

My guess is we will see a lot of activity from the shorts at this level to keep the price below $190. Let's see what happens

It looks to me like this is a multi-day rally. It had been on a long downward trajectory so I think there is still a good amount of pent-up buying pressure (that was just waiting for the right signal). The shorts want to take it back down but will have to absorb some of this buy pressure to be effective.

 

[urarthur]

There is a huge call option open interest volume in the 200-220 range. Once it hits ATM, MM'er will need to delta/gamma hedge, pushing the SP way up.

 

[neroden]

Bloomberg was never accurate until their last minute "adjustment". InsideEVs has a very good track record.

Grand Quest is scheduled to reach Shanghai on June 19. Even if it's a couple days later they'll have time to deliver most of those cars.

The real proof of unwinding the wave will be a ship loading later this month. None are scheduled yet, but there's still time.

There's another tax credit expiration in the US at the end of this month. Unfortunately that's enough reason to NOT unwind the wave this month; if they're seeing demand pullforward (and I bet they are) they want to fulfill it this month in the US.