Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

I honestly think $tsla will never touch 180 ever again.

I agree for the most part. I think that if there is another Tesla related death between now and the Q2 results (or the Q2 turns poorly, which it doesn't seem like it), than it'll kick back down to around there again. But that's the doubtful situation. I don't think it'll stay below 200 much longer, and then it'll just go up and up.

 

[Nocturnal]

Looks like my advice for my Dad to jump in to TSLA at 182 is looking pretty good. I wish I had more cash to buy at these levels but without doing something financially stupid (well, more stupid than buying individual stocks) I can't swing it right now.

That's because you think Tesla in terms of a car company vs an energy company. In the age of climate change and a dire predicted future, the " cable company" that every hates can be replaced by "fossil fuel" and that will give you the disruption people are comparing to. It's also a key to point out that no one is going to suffer tremendously if Comcast remains a monopoly vs climate change. Oh and the demographic is the same when it comes to thinking cable companies are just fine vs climate change is made up. Two for two.

And just wait until we really start feeling the impacts of climate change. Take the image that people have of the evil tobacco company exec and then multiply that by 10x. Any fossil fuel types that are still around and kicking won't be having a good time.

 

[Fact Checking]

EU numbers are actually not that brilliant so far. We are looking at only 4000 or so total deliveries S/X/3 in May. S and X remain extremely weak with both around 500 cars each with no Raven cars available. Hopefully China is doing better. As last quarter everything will be decided in the final two weeks of the quarter.

At least U.S. numbers are in line with @neroden's tax credit expiration model, which correctly estimated Q1 results and expected deliveries to recover in April-May - which they stated doing if we believe the InsideEV numbers.

Here's one of @neroden's comments describing it:

You can go look in the other thrrad for my most pessimistic scenario of 50k. Foresight.

The "hangover" model is foresight but I do not remember whether I publishef projections.

FYI the model is for every 5% price discount from an expiring tax credit or increasing tarriff or whatever -- (calculated as (projected post expiration price - pre expiration price) / projected post expiration price)1.8 months demand is pulled forward.... very roughly (1 digit of accuracy, not 2)

Q3 in the US should look awful as I expect 2 months of pullforward on SR and SR+. July should be extra awful due to pullforward on S/X/LR. Send nearly all production overseas in early Q3.

Did not see the downtime or continued low "when operating" production rate.

PS math corrected

S/X significantly below Q2'18 levels of 22k still look probable at this point:

• Osborning by the Model 3 continues in Europe where sedans and smaller SUVs are preferred,
• NL is probably still feeling the effects of a steeper tax cliff than the U.S. one? (which pulls forward more months of demand),
• Tesla has always prioritized U.S. deliveries, especially before tax cliffs.

Supply shortages were exacerbating all this in Q1.
So S/X deliveries in Q2 as low as 15k are possible - anything approaching 20k on the S/X side would be a very good result.

If the Raven order book is healthy then I'd expect Tesla to send no Ravens to Europe in June - but start sending the whole production in July and August. The opening of many of the remaining markets for the 3 is possibly preparing that too.

On the Model 3 side 75k looks possible so combined deliveries of 90k+ look achievable.

But whatever happens in June could shift this by 5k deliveries in both directions.

 

[-=buzz=-]

I thought that choice of words very odd. What other CEO uses the word cash burn about his own company? I don't know why, but it struck me as odd and clearly intentional. He certainly knew the email would leak. It's easy to deduce what would follow. Why would he intentionally do this? I really don't know, but there is that damn wink just a week or two later...

Well,
"If we keep investing at the same rate as last quarter, we would run out of cash in 10 months" doesn' t carry the intended message very well...

 

[Wooloomooloo]

That's because you think Tesla in terms of a car company vs an energy company. In the age of climate change and a dire predicted future, the " cable company" that every hates can be replaced by "fossil fuel" and that will give you the disruption people are comparing to. /snip

That's a really good point and you're right, I was thinking of Tesla the car company. Th reality is, from a consumer perspective, they haven't made anywhere near the same level of disruption in energy as they have in automotive. I really hope that will change, but it feels like a long way off.

 

[Singuy]

So question, looking at April numbers combined worldwide including US, how are the deliveries a record according to Elon when the numbers are less than some months in past quarters?

 

[ZeApelido]

To the maritime stalkers in the crowd:

Any ships head out lately? If we have a hope of this wave unwinding, we need some ships to depart in June.

Have not seen any truckful of Model 3's on 101 for a week or 2.

 

[SO16]

Th reality is, from a consumer perspective, they haven't made anywhere near the same level of disruption in energy as they have in automotive. I really hope that will change, but it feels like a long way off.

South Australia may disagree. The Tesla battery has saved them tens of millions in the first year.

 

[InTheShadows]

I honestly think $tsla will never touch 180 ever again.

That’s what I said in 2016.

 

[Singuy]

Looks like my advice for my Dad to jump in to TSLA at 182 is looking pretty good. I wish I had more cash to buy at these levels but without doing something financially stupid (well, more stupid than buying individual stocks) I can't swing it right now.

And just wait until we really start feeling the impacts of climate change. Take the image that people have of the evil tobacco company exec and then multiply that by 10x. Any fossil fuel types that are still around and kicking won't be having a good time.

I live in FL and already feel it. I don't remember the last time I have seen a hurricane that's not at least a cat 3. Back in the days we used to have tropical storms or cat 1s. Now we are just seeing multiple cat 4-5s in a given year and it's freaking me out.

 

[EVNow]

The first is that Netflix was disrupting an industry that was entrenched and people hated... Cable Companies, who were slow to adapt and inefficient.

I don't know who are hated more - car dealers or cable companies.

 

[MP3Mike]

how come there are still Volt's? i thought they were Discontinued or some such

Because, you know... some car manufacturers have these things called dealerships.... they 'sell' their cars to these 'dealerships', but those 'dealerships' still haven't sold them to the final customer. Yes, I know, an antiquated idea, but it does still exist.

I believe InsideEVs numbers don't count vehicles as 'sold' though until they reach the final customer.

Exactly. They made the last Volt in February. Now three months later they still have unsold Volts. That is a demand problem. (It was obvious they timed discontinuing it to line up with the step down in their federal tax credit, but they didn't manage to sell them all before the tax credit was lopped in half which makes it even harder to sell the remaining Volts.)

 

[capster]

I honestly think $tsla will never touch 180 ever again.

Maybe after many splits?

 

[EVNow]

So question, looking at April numbers combined worldwide including US, how are the deliveries a record according to Elon when the numbers are less than some months in past quarters?

Supposed to be a record for 1st month of a quarter.

 

[LJS22]

So question, looking at April numbers combined worldwide including US, how are the deliveries a record according to Elon when the numbers are less than some months in past quarters?

More territories open + I believe Musk mentioned that they have enough orders for new cars they just need to deliver to break that record. Expect another huge push in June.

 

[Nocturnal]

That's a really good point and you're right, I was thinking of Tesla the car company. Th reality is, from a consumer perspective, they haven't made anywhere near the same level of disruption in energy as they have in automotive. I really hope that will change, but it feels like a long way off.

All the third party articles on energy storage etc. are extremely bullish for this industry. It's been a trickle so far but I can see it ramping very quickly. Climate/pollution issues aside, the ROI is very good in many cases right now.

 

[Singuy]

More territories open + I believe Musk mentioned that they have enough orders for new cars they just need to deliver to break that record. Expect another huge push in June.

No I am specifically referring to April when they said this month will be a record due to not having completed all the deliveries before March 31st.

 

[Silentk]

LVC on Twitter

Beautiful one minute Tesla ad. Watch it as hopefully the share price keeps rising

A few of these on social media could do wonders, even without big Superbowl type investment.

 

[RFernatt]

Inside the Mind Of Adam Jonas
.Aah F**K it, time to mess with the Shorts!!

Thinking of Mr. Jonas and a few other analysts, some lyrics from Don Henley...

"Today I made an appearance downtown
I am an expert witness because I say I am
And I said gentlemen, and I use that world loosely
I will testify for you, I'm a gun for hire, I'm a saint, I'm a liar
Because there are no facts, there is no truth
Just data to be manipulated
I can get you any result you like
What's it worth to you?
Because there is no wrong, there is no right
And I sleep very well at night
No shame, no solution, no remorse, no retribution
Just people selling t-shirts
Just opportunity to participate in the pathetic little circus
And winning, winning, winning

It was pretty big year for predators
The marketplace was on a roll
And the land of opportunity
Spawned a whole new breed of men without souls
This year notoriety got all confused with fame
And the devil is downhearted babe, cause
There's nothing left for him to claim
He said it's just like home
It's so low-down I can't stand it
I guess my work around here has all been done"

 

[Fact Checking]

Now in the car world, things are different in those key ways - market share is a zero sum game here, and it's likely the EV market size will grow more slowly than the EV market diversity.

That's not true at all: Tesla has demonstrated significant willingness of customers who previously bought only $15k-$30 cars tops to shell out $40k+ for their dream Tesla car which car they love, love and love.

I.e. EVs as made by Tesla are expanding the revenue stream of the car market in similar ways smartphones were expanding the dumbphone market significantly.

Netflix on the other hand didn't expand the overall revenue stream but converted expensive, monopolized, obnoxiously tone deaf hard to use cable subscriptions infested with force pushed advertisements into a less expensive yet more convenient streaming service with no forced ads.

Netflix is in fact a net negative for content creators (they earn less), Netflix managed to attract top content creators by granting them unprecedented artistic freedom.

So your comparison couldn't be more inaccurate: Tesla expanding the EV market is an additional advantage over the Netflix story.