Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mars ☰mperor]

I think Tesla China made the right move... seems like demand in China is doing well after the Made In China pricing announcement:

Vincent on Twitter


View attachment 415560

Vincent has always been a little too bullish on China IMO.
Most of his posts are just from the same Tesla China official Weibo or WeChat account, which is available to everyone who understands Chinese.

And his wording is frequently kind of sensational.
So take his post with a grain of salt.

 

[dmckinstry]

In practice there is a bump/right skew where gaussian distributions fail to predict high IQs, meaning more than 50% of people are actually below average intelligence.

Except in Lake Woebegon.

 

[dc_h]

Well I don't think it's to launch a new Gigafactory...

I would guess on hand for first RHD deliveries and to check logistics for Europe to make sure they are on track for deliveries without a last week rush. Will be interesting if he makes a China appearance next, or maybe Australia.

 

[dc_h]

There are a lot of uncertainties and assumptions. Let's do the math backwards.

AP - we have zero data. The only thing we know is that it looks like we have 6 ships to China and 1 to Japan this quarter vs. the 8 ships to China last quarter. But there is a lot we don't know like the impact of the trade war or people waiting on the cheaper GF3 Model 3. So let's assume ROW, incl. AP, is flat at 10k.

Europe had sales of ~8-8.5k cars in Q2 so far and we see 3.5 ships' to be unloaded and delivered. A ship being 3-5k cars, it's difficult to see how that goes beyond 23k in total, meaning flat on Q1.

To get to 90k cars (lower end of the guidance), NA would need to deliver 57k cars. Q2 so far is 28k, so they would need to do 29k in June. Impossible? No. Probable? Not sure.

If Canada is 10,000 in Q2 N America (cause it’s not just USA) would Only need 19,000 in the middle country in N America.

 

[JRP3]

It must be a real quandary for the Trump-haters on this blog to reconcile their potential Trump-replacement to be fraternizing with Chanos. I am not a political person. Just an honest observation.

Not at all honest, Chanos supporting Biden is a nothing burger compared to everything Trump has done, not even in the same league. Biden is far from ideal for many reasons but still magnitudes better than what we have.

 

[Pras]

If Canada is 10,000 in Q2 N America (cause it’s not just USA) would Only need 19,000 in the middle country in N America.

My expectation (link below) is slightly less for Canada but we may have a surprise. Would love it.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[EVNow]

With all of the discussions of Q2 profits of various kinds, and cash flow estimates, no one has to my knowledge included an estimate for M3 leasing and the impacts thereof. How are all of you prognosticators handling that? Thanks in advance.

I'm assuming 5% leasing for 3 in Q2. If that increases to 10%, we'll see about $40M less profit.

 

[CyberDutchie]

@FactChecking, thanks for digging this back up.... let me review...



Expect 1.7 months of pullforward on the SR+, 1.4 on the LR, 1.1 on the P, so basically no US demand in July, low non-P demand and a rich mix in August, back to normal in September.
For S & X, the pullforward should be under a month but should still have a big impact on July.

So expect a big burst of pulled-forward US sales in June (and as a result no wave unwinding).

And July production should be sent abroad -- the result will be nearly no deliveries in July, since there will be few US deliveries and the Euro/China deliveries will be on ships.

August should start returning to normal.

The final tax credit expiration in December should have a similar effect. So I don't think the wave will be properly unwound until next year. And Jan 2020 will have *apparently* poor deliveries due to the tax credit timing. Then this all ends.

The pull-forward effect of federal tax credit deadlines should be less every time as the amounts get reduced by 50%. I for myself decided to cancel my order, awaiting for Tesla stock price recovery (today was a great first step in the right direction). In the overall price of a Model X, losing $1,875 in federal credits isn’t that big of a deal, to take on more financial debt now.

 

[Dig deeper]

https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/4518141/Risks%20and%20Opportunities%20in%20the%20Battery%20Supply%20Chain.pdf

Thought i would share a report i found over at r/securityanalysis. Havent had a chance to really dig into yet but id be interested to see if any of the brighter minds here have any opinions.

Some of the key findings in the report include:

- The battery supply chain is misunderstood and undercapitalized.
- This will be the primary constraint to the rollout of electric vehicles.
- While there are enough mineral reserves, the mining industries ability to ramp up production and chemical refining capacity is a significant concern.
- Unlike lithium, there appear to be reserve shortages on the horizon for class one nickel and cobalt.
- China has accumulated a dominate share of ownership across the supply chain. Concentration of supply is a risk for all battery users. For governments and international organizations that have decarbonizing goals and objectives, the concentration of supply is also a risk.
- OEMs prioritize the surety of supply and quality. Several of the largest battery producers in the world (principally Chinese firms) do not currently meet the specification standards of Tier 1 western OEMs.
- We currently see limited investment opportunities in upstream lithium mining but several opportunities in lithium refining, and throughout the supply chain with nickel and cobalt.

Dont know much about the fund but they seem to have a large position in coal (or at least they did in 2017). I guess the data presented should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Electroman]

It must be a real quandary for the Trump-haters on this blog to reconcile their potential Trump-replacement to be fraternizing with Chanos. I am not a political person. Just an honest observation.

Chalk me in that category. I can’t stand the buffoon and the scam artist in the WH.

I am in the camp of anything but the imbecile teenager. But siding with a Tesla hater is a big red flag.

So I am torn

 

[sundaymorning]

My friend who couldn’t afford a Tesla Model 3 recently bought the stock on the drop. Hopefully in 5 years it’ll pay for his down payment.

 

[Pras]

The pull-forward effect of federal tax credit deadlines should be less every time as the amounts get reduced by 50%. I for myself decided to cancel my order, awaiting for Tesla stock price recovery (today was a great first step in the right direction). In the overall price of a Model X, losing $1,875 in federal credits isn’t that big of a deal, to take on more financial debt now.

My analysis (very high level) suggested that 4% of annual sales volume was pulled forward from Q1-19 to Q4-18. That is roughly 5-6k model-3s.

For Q3 pull forward I would expect a lower pull forward. Say 3%. Which could be a 4K lesser in Q3. But the RHD car ramp up should cover it. Agree that the model X effect will even be lower.

 

[CyberDutchie]

One of the biggest daily green candles of the entire year, and with higher volume than a lot of other big daily green candles.

1. Jan. 7th: +13.24 on 7.5M shares.
2. Feb. 27th: +12.96 on 11.1M shares.
3. Today: +12.50 on 13.7M shares.
4. May 3rd: +11.17 on 23.7M shares.

Percentage wise, today may be the best one this year so far.

 

[M3Rider]

Just came across a great video (from Teslarati article) that does a superior job in convincing patriots to buy Teslas.

Saw many accounts here of people being unable to talk even their relatives into owning a Tesla.

I think this video might do a better job than you (in some cases). I'm going to bookmark it and keep handy just in case.

 

[Hock1]

Chalk me in that category. I can’t stand the buffoon and the scam artist in the WH.

I am in the camp of anything but the imbecile teenager. But siding with a Tesla hater is a big red flag.

So I am torn

Thanks for the honest answer. I apologize to everyone here for even broaching the subject. I am forever bemoaning the fact that the moderators allow blatant political BS, and there I go stirring up a hornet's nest. Won't happen again. Go Tesla. GLTA.

 

[LJS22]

I’m not sure if analyst are properly factoring in Tesla’s rate of expansion right now. No other car company is doing this. From superchargers, to service centers, to the Gigafactories we are in the middle of a massive company putting its footprint all over the world.
If most analysts now agree that electric vehicles are going to exponentially increase then how is what Tesla is currently doing not reason to jump on this horse?

Not even looking at what this company is doing on a software side, and design. Right now the question is “why is Tesla losing money?” And the answer has been really simple for some time...there is massive growth taking place. It’s getting obvious how far ahead Tesla is about to appear. I’m sure the other companies are becoming aware as they limp into the market that Tesla built.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Agree with this....would rather Tesla had targeted a mainstream truck. Perhaps Elon was targeting a "halo" truck first, ie. similar to the roadster before he built the S?

Elon told Ryan McAffrey that Tesla's supply of battery cells will increase about the same time that Model Y production begins (currently slated for late 2020). It's no coincidence that Elon made this his last comment in the 1-hour long interview: (58:14)

"It only makes sense to add new products at volume if we have the battery cell capacity to support them. Otherwise we're simply adding complexity but not putting more vehicles on the road.

... and really, cell capacity will come online just in time for Model Y. If we had Model Y today we couldn't actually make any additional cars because we do not have enough cells."​

Pickup will have to wait, Semi is far more important, it's next. Elon also implied up to 10K roadsters / yr x 200 KWh which is another pending 2 GWh/yr battery cell requirement.

So we'll likely see a halo pickup at the reveal, with 1st deliveries likely held back for the same reason: Roadster/Pickup are just lower priorities right now. Expect more battery CapEx shortly after the next capacity increment is brought online.

So here's the good news that nobody is discussing: There is a step change in battery cell production in the pipeline for 2020H2. And with no physical expansion planned for GF1, that strongly implies better utilization of existing production space. Hmm...

Max Cheers!

 

[sparcs]

Chalk me in that category. I can’t stand the buffoon and the scam artist in the WH.

I am in the camp of anything but the imbecile teenager. But siding with a Tesla hater is a big red flag.

So I am torn

don't be torn. Chanos and trump are both con-men who can get good people to make giant mistakes. That's not even hate. It's just my observation.

 

[TradingInvest]

https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/4518141/Risks%20and%20Opportunities%20in%20the%20Battery%20Supply%20Chain.pdf

Thought i would share a report i found over at r/securityanalysis. Havent had a chance to really dig into yet but id be interested to see if any of the brighter minds here have any opinions.

Some of the key findings in the report include:

- The battery supply chain is misunderstood and undercapitalized.
- This will be the primary constraint to the rollout of electric vehicles.
- While there are enough mineral reserves, the mining industries ability to ramp up production and chemical refining capacity is a significant concern.
- Unlike lithium, there appear to be reserve shortages on the horizon for class one nickel and cobalt.
- China has accumulated a dominate share of ownership across the supply chain. Concentration of supply is a risk for all battery users. For governments and international organizations that have decarbonizing goals and objectives, the concentration of supply is also a risk.
- OEMs prioritize the surety of supply and quality. Several of the largest battery producers in the world (principally Chinese firms) do not currently meet the specification standards of Tier 1 western OEMs.
- We currently see limited investment opportunities in upstream lithium mining but several opportunities in lithium refining, and throughout the supply chain with nickel and cobalt.

Dont know much about the fund but they seem to have a large position in coal (or at least they did in 2017). I guess the data presented should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

The world has plenty of nickel mines and produces more than 2 million tons of nickel per year. As long as we have this kind of nickel supply, there will be no shortage for batteries. Refining capacity can go up when there is demand.

Cobalt I don't worry too much, research will replace this element in car batteries. Tesla and Panasonic said they already figured out how to build great batteries without Cobalt.

Lithium is one of the most abundant element on earth. Exploration and refining technology will continue to improve and reduce cost.

I'm sure they had valid reasons to invest in coal too, but they don't understand the world is switching to solar, wind and natural gas. I would not touch this kind of fund, too many incompetent people and cheaters in this field.

 

[EVNow]

don't be torn. Chanos and trump are both con-men who can get good people to make giant mistakes. That's not even hate. It's just my observation.

"good" is doing a lot of work there.